FMG - Fortescue Ltd

agro dont be agro about FMG...long term very good stock but atm because of the railway setbacks & the very tight delivery schedule i believe that you will see alot of weakness in the SP as may foos nears,Investors are a fickle lot & the current price is hanging on a thread by the belief the may foos will be met,i do expect an announcement soon about the temporary use of road to get the fe as far up the line to the trains or straight into the port,from a public view point my guess is twiggy will say we are only using the roadtrains to get it as far up the line as possible so as not to spook investors like yourself.as for the twigster getting on the shovel,gee what a sight that would be..so i thought id give him a few options...http://www.agriculturetools.com/shovels-and-spades/shovels-and-spades.htm

amazing the array of tools just wating for twiggy to rip into it,i reckon they might even put a handle on for him!!!

We are throught the three times R/R area.

Closed again on the low.

Lock in profits now with stop at 7.43.

something interesting happened with FMG today.
It fell down considerably . Normally it does hold even market slides.
Today it fell faster than BHP fell.
The price was 6.95 at open and closed at 6.
Someone at 09:37:31 AM sold at $ 6.950 volume was 6,648,791 Total $ 46,209,097.45 XTSPOS .

Do not know what XTSPOS mean.
Does it mean any directors off loaded ?
We will not know until market opens on Tuesday.
Is it proving market gossip is true ?
That would be a bad sign for DIY investors for Super FUnd and in general super funds. If BHP, ANZ falls along with FMG. Where is the opportunity to make money ?
Dow Jones opened in red.

Wayne Swan now confessed - we may not be far off from global stuff up.
WA Business has shown lack of confidence.

Where do we go now ? Probably Joe already saw that no of posts has reduced substantially. I have no stats but normally the no of pages is always more than two under New Posting. Now it has been consistent with two pages.

Miner said:

something interesting happened with FMG today.
It fell down considerably . Normally it does hold even market slides.

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I think as Radge pointed out, after a low close on high volume and an up day (in the index) yesterday, the writing was on the wall for FMG.

Especially considering the XMJ took such a thumping, it was no wonder it didnt hold even while the market was sliding today.

Materials are being pounded and there is probably some time to go yet.

Thats why its crucial to set your stops, limit your downside.

Good luck!

P.S Where is the opportunity to make money, short FMG? Not many other options except the bank at the moment, as hard as that is for me to say! Others may feel different. Perhaps short commodity futures, but that is a very dangerous game.

One thing I will throw out there however, for better or worse, was following the fall in the POG two days ago, and the rise in global indicies, I shifted assets back into some regular stocks (and cash), based purely on momentum changes. Thought there would be a fall today (after the bounce we had), but was hoping the momentum would continue on based on historical trends (as I have discussed in other threads, including multiple cut to IR effect). See how we go, feel a lot like Im gambling though. Not waiting for strong enough momentum as per usual.

Just a few thoughts, good luck!

Boggo good work mate...ive been saying we will see sub $6.00 in FMG but i thought it might have support until next week, so its now around $6.00 which only confirms to me it will see sub $5.00 as early as wednesday,I await the february construction report which should have arrived before the easter break,it is giving some the chance to get out as 1 look on the sell side tells you the whole picture:bad news on the way.The reports on the railway never tell you we are this many kms from completion,no all you get is 90% complete(it does not say how far to go.) as of the january construction report,the march update shows alot of pics bit wont say how far before the tracks are finished,so the track is 260kms out of cloud break at 90% done as per the report released on 19/2/08,but where does the 10% to go begin???end of january or the 19/2/08..the original foos was january 2008 so it is already 4 months overdue,as the rail contract was 260kms over 25 months,which gave them 10.4 kms to lay each month but since then you have had the dramas of replacing the contractors plus imo the deadline was set too tight,by fmg's january report they say they have got 26kms left to lay in(lets say from 1/2/08-14/5/08)in 104 days...at the supposed rate of 10kms per month they would make it however the secrecy that surrounds the actual kms left to lay plus all the other associated infrastructure work required,there would seem to be alot more work is needed to get the rail finished on time,thats when FMG will really get a slamming,when they fess up to not having enough time, thereby the remainder of the ore has to go by road,that being the case they should be getting the ore as far up the track for loading on the roadtrains to lessen the costs of the road haulage & to give them a parachute for the fall...,going by the start of the rail,the current 10% figure i believe being more like 10% to go at may foos,they will be 25-30kms short on the line,the rumours & current sp do lend heavily to the deadline being missed by that margin.the sell side says it all as if FMG where putting this all together with 54 days left notwithstanding the dows rumbles then FMG would be rockin'...looks like sub $5.00 to be only days away as previously stated,plus ol mate twigster getting a shovel in his hands.priceless...TB

first to get his railway on this list you gotta finish the line,so looks like on the shovel first...TB,nice little gold number for twiggy...

Tigerboi,

I actually think your posts may be informative, however I only ever read the first line.

How about using some paragraphs and you may find that you get a wider response range.

I (and a lot of users I know) refuse to read huge slabs of text.

regards

prawn

prawn_86 said:

Tigerboi,

I actually think your posts may be informative, however I only ever read the first line.
How about using some paragraphs and you may find that you get a wider response range.
I (and a lot of users I know) refuse to read huge slabs of text.

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Totally agree, I dont have time to try to decipher what looks like good information. Maybe just click that enter button every minute or so?

You mean like this...yesterdays racing tips...its been getting done.

Tigerboi's stable strikes pay dirt!!!casino prince gets the cash

at $7.10...6/1 trendsetters thats 3 from 6 tips with the 3 collects

$2.90,$2.30,$7.10...the tiger...

Think you must be slow at typing if each of those lines took you a minute to type! But actually even that looks easier to read, if only it was about FMG! Maybe it is!

tigerboi said:

You mean like this...yesterdays racing tips...its been getting done.

Tigerboi's stable strikes pay dirt!!!casino prince gets the cash

at $7.10...6/1 trendsetters thats 3 from 6 tips with the 3 collects

$2.90,$2.30,$7.10...the tiger...

Click to expand...

Tigerboi,

It sounds as though you didn't learn to do paragraphs at school?

All everyone would like you to do - so we can more easily access the information you are offering - is break it up into sub-topics, if you like.

Twenty or so lines all together is offputting to the eye and we just tend to not want to read it.

So, maybe just try to think about your message and figure out where would be the most appropriate places to break it up and jump down a line.

I've done it here with this post, perhaps rather too much, but so you can see what we mean.

Cheers
Julia

Good sign in DJ - second day looks like up. So ASX will be up too on Wednesday. Market is still capable of giving nasty surprises.

FMG has gone up slightly on Tuesday and hope it will be much more on Wednesday. I should have bought on Thursday.

Checking up with some of the site contractors the railway is not far off contrary to market belief.

They are working very hard and even very senior managers are working 11 days Fly in and 4 days out of site duty.

Must be expecting some good bonus by mid May.

Signs are positive if I believe contractors stories.

Worley Parsons has started high speed recruitment for expansion project too. Remember Chinese called untouchable to BHP and Rio. FMG is still a darling.

That means I may get a ASF book out of tipping competition for March

Next dipping opportunity I should sell ANZ and BHP and buy FMG (for a change !!) .

this should shut the skeptics - monthly construction report out:

The First Ore On Ship (FOOS) date remains at mid May 2008 with overall project completion at 90% measured by value of work.

Port works are 93% with the value of work completed during February being 2.7% against the target of 2.3%.

The mine site was 84% complete as at end February with VOW achieved of 3.4% against a target of 2.9%.

Rail works were 91% complete with VOW achieved of 6.0% against a target of 3.3%.

Project Final Forecast Cost is now $2,796 million which represents an increase of $31 million from last period. The adjustment was split between a $11.7m increase for rail works, a $22.2 increase for mine works balanced by a reduction of $4.6m from forecast EPCM costs.


wheres tigerboi - i like to hear his comments same with prawn_86

I think tigerboi is too busy posting photos at the moment. The report sounds good - hope all due diligence has been done in it!

Prospector said:

I think tigerboi is too busy posting photos at the moment. The report sounds good - hope all due diligence has been done in it!

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i think he has gone to look for pictures of spades that he needs to go and dig hole for himself maybe (jokes)

Although it has come off a bit from its $8 ($80)+ its still trading at a forward (2009) PE of approx 33, which seems a bit high still for me. And a 2010 forwards PE of 14

For a company that is this big, and has a lot of salience would suggest 25 - 30 forward (1yr) PE would probably be appropriate.

So for me i would suggest around about $6 - $6.50 is fair value for FMG, given the current environment, demand etc etc

But once again i state the fact that there are co's already producing on PEs of 1 or 2, and they wont have any comminsioning or uprgrading problems, such as FMG may face to achieve full production...

prawn_86 said:

Although it has come off a bit from its $8 ($80)+ its still trading at a forward (2009) PE of approx 33, which seems a bit high still for me. And a 2010 forwards PE of 14

For a company that is this big, and has a lot of salience would suggest 25 - 30 forward (1yr) PE would probably be appropriate.

So for me i would suggest around about $6 - $6.50 is fair value for FMG, given the current environment, demand etc etc

But once again i state the fact that there are co's already producing on PEs of 1 or 2, and they wont have any comminsioning or uprgrading problems, such as FMG may face to achieve full production...

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why do you buy a stock based on P/E - i think its entirely up to you but personally its bs..

u said TMR had a low P/E ,,, meaning a good buy right? yet its going down??


fundamentals for the win..

Prospector said:

I think tigerboi is too busy posting photos at the moment. The report sounds good - hope all due diligence has been done in it!

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Nope been busy with the footy tips so i will have a look tonight,maybe you should follow my race tips,6/1 winner plus 3 others for a profit of 75% for the day.

For those who spoke of racing & stock market analysis,i will provide the analysis on how to research a race,pull it apart & back that 6 bagger..tb

agro said:

i think he has gone to look for pictures of spades that he needs to go and dig hole for himself maybe (jokes)

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No need to already done it so if you like here is the site,dont know if i am allowed to post anymore shovels because of sooks like you.

Twiggy brought up the shovel scenario so i reckon its fair game in print
or in photos...tb

http://www.agriculturetools.com/shovels-and-spades/shovels-and-spades.htm

There's only one winner out of all this shovel talk, and that's Mr Forrest himself.

Top of the BRW Top 200 Executive Rich List at $8.4b.

http://business.smh.com.au/forrest-beats-packer-murdoch-on-rich-list/20080326-21od.html

prawn_86 said:

Although it has come off a bit from its $8 ($80)+ its still trading at a forward (2009) PE of approx 33, which seems a bit high still for me. And a 2010 forwards PE of 14

For a company that is this big, and has a lot of salience would suggest 25 - 30 forward (1yr) PE would probably be appropriate.

So for me i would suggest around about $6 - $6.50 is fair value for FMG, given the current environment, demand etc etc

But once again i state the fact that there are co's already producing on PEs of 1 or 2, and they wont have any comminsioning or uprgrading problems, such as FMG may face to achieve full production...

Click to expand...

The recent dip might be a good buying opportunity, and yes forward numbers do look good still

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -3.4 30.7 72.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 14/3/2008
Author: Kevin Andrusiak
Source: The Australian --- Page: 24
Australian-listed iron ore hopeful Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) plans to deliverits first shipment from Western Australia in May 2008. Construction of arailroad linking the mine to the coast is about 90% complete, as is the terminalfacility at Port Anderson. However, FMG has called for an independentengineering firm to give it a final appraisal of the shiploader built in Chinato Australian specifications. The previous certifier was seen by the mininggroup as not sufficiently at arm's length from manufacturer ThyssenKrupp.On 13 March 2008 FMG stock closed $A0.24 lower at $A7.41

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