FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[over9k]

This is typical un winding of larger positions. Selling into strength.

I think we're well past the tipping point though, don't you?

I bailed on the first jitters with the evergrande stuff. Sold TQQQ at $144, haven't rebought.

I bought GUSH, NRGU, DPST, BNKU months ago though (my first positions were actually more than a year ago before the vaccines were even announced but I've ben in & out a few times since) and still holding.

 

[tech/a]

I think we're well past the tipping point though, don't you?

Yes i think we are off the chair lift staring down at the bottom.
upside is minimal down side is pretty steep.
closed everything including long term SM super positions a while ago.

 

[over9k]

So is anyone in this thread still holding aside from value collector?

 

[againsthegrain]

So is anyone in this thread still holding aside from value collector?

picked up another 5k at 14.05 today ?

ps. dollars not number of shares im a small cat

 

[sptrawler]

picked up another 5k at 14.05 today ?

That's serious bickies, obviously a vote of confidence, or a long term horizon.
I will hang off, as I don't have any, so dollar cost averaging isn't an issue.
But I do intend to get some, I like the way twiggy is thinking, as long as he doesn't step on too many toes, it should be all good.

 

[againsthegrain]

That's serious bickies, obviously a vote of confidence, or a long term horizon.
I will hang off, as I don't have any, so dollar cost averaging isn't an issue.
But I do intend to get some, I like the way twiggy is thinking, as long as he doesn't step on too many toes, it should be all good.

I meant 5k worth not 5k shares... id be shiting some serious bickies otherwise.

I never get the bottom so expect to see 13 tomorrow, got another 5k waiting if 12-13 comes

 

[over9k]

Yank futures have just kept dropping all day and europe's opened into a bloodbath with U.S futures just still dropping by the hour (Nasdaq now 1.4% and still going) so yeah, I wouldn't expect any green tomorrow.

You're in falling knife territory IMO.

 

[againsthegrain]

Yank futures have just kept dropping all day and europe's opened into a bloodbath with U.S futures just still dropping by the hour (Nasdaq now 1.4% and still going) so yeah, I wouldn't expect any green tomorrow.

You're in falling knife territory IMO.

Basically yeah, got 2 or 3 fingers left

 

[sptrawler]

I tend to work on long term averages, so looking at the long term trend, nothing much has happened apart from the virus.
Working on the principle, that the market had already factored in the debt paydown, I'm hoping on an entry between $9 and $12.

 

[divs4ever]

So is anyone in this thread still holding aside from value collector?

yes i am , but i have only started buying in recently

YES there are liable to be some nasty bumps ( more likely global issues than management , here )

i will consider each move as they arrive buy or hold in a dip , reduce or hold in a rally etc etc

so far i am planning to hold ( but adjust if sensible ) for the long term

 

[basilio]

Still in and not leaving. I think the short/medium term profit outlook with iron ore will be very, very good if the price holds at around $100 a ton and still good value down to $60 a ton.

In the medium-longer term I'd like to believe that the moves into massive renewable energy projects, green hydrogen and green steel will be successful, nation building projects and quite profitable.

Of course if war breaks out between China and Taiwan all bets are off. But then I reckon there will be a lot of blood on the street from a thousand other companies. Ce La Vie.

In any case it's going to break me.

 

[divs4ever]

I tend to work on long term averages, so looking at the long term trend, nothing much has happened apart from the virus.
Working on the principle, that the market had already factored in the debt paydown, I'm hoping on an entry between $9 and $12.

that price range would tempt me to add to my holding

i see the virus as a distraction from bigger underlying issues ( outside of FMG )

 

[spratty84]

I am holding a small amount and hoping to add few more parcels if it drops around $12 or under

 

[basilio]

If we wanted to be seriously worried about someting that would certainly have a major impact on our lives what about this for a starter ?
Our cities. Our homes. Our national infrastructure. The insurance industry.

I note it here because FMG's new business direction attempts to lead industry and the Governments into tackling CC as the critical issue it is in Australia and the world.

‘Eye-watering’: climate change disasters will cost Australia billions each year, study finds

Catastrophes like fires and floods could set the economy back more than $1.2tn by 2060, even if action is taken

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sharkman]

So is anyone in this thread still holding aside from value collector?

not directly, but i did take a punt on a mid term recovery using a diagonal call spread, though not the one i described earlier, MMs just wouldn't give me a good fill on that one. ended up selling the oct 7 $15.50 weeklies & buying jan '22 $19s for a 10c credit. even that wasn't a good fill either as it was several ticks their side of the mid, but pushing the near leg out a week meant that it could be done at modest credit, which i find psychologically important for this sort of spread.

not a lot of action on the jan contracts at the moment, it seems that i still hold the entire open interest on the jan $19s, which, barring a surprise massive rally, will be on the house after tomorrow's close. near leg is quite a bit further OTM than i'd like, but if we get another bounce like the one sep 21-22-23, i might stick on another similar spread, maybe push the far leg out to feb if there's liquidity out there. delta and tenor skews are still very much in effect, 3-4 month ~25 delta calls trading in the low 40s, weekly/2 weekly ATMs mid-high 50s.

i don't have all that much confidence in a strong recovery TBH, but hey if i can eke out some free bets like these, might as well take them and see what happens.

 

[UMike]

I tend to work on long term averages, so looking at the long term trend, nothing much has happened apart from the virus.
Working on the principle, that the market had already factored in the debt paydown, I'm hoping on an entry between $9 and $12.

I'm guessing the accident causing one mans death is a factor as well.

 

[over9k]

not directly, but i did take a punt on a mid term recovery using a diagonal call spread, though not the one i described earlier, MMs just wouldn't give me a good fill on that one. ended up selling the oct 7 $15.50 weeklies & buying jan '22 $19s for a 10c credit. even that wasn't a good fill either as it was several ticks their side of the mid, but pushing the near leg out a week meant that it could be done at modest credit, which i find psychologically important for this sort of spread.

not a lot of action on the jan contracts at the moment, it seems that i still hold the entire open interest on the jan $19s, which, barring a surprise massive rally, will be on the house after tomorrow's close. near leg is quite a bit further OTM than i'd like, but if we get another bounce like the one sep 21-22-23, i might stick on another similar spread, maybe push the far leg out to feb if there's liquidity out there. delta and tenor skews are still very much in effect, 3-4 month ~25 delta calls trading in the low 40s, weekly/2 weekly ATMs mid-high 50s.

i don't have all that much confidence in a strong recovery TBH, but hey if i can eke out some free bets like these, might as well take them and see what happens.

Oh yeah the IV would be absolutely savage now, once the EMA's, MACD etc have been busted the plummet is well & truly priced in.

 

[dat111]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...bon-target-for-customers-20211005-p58xa6.html
With all the woke bright investors behind, the sky is the limit?

$250 million is probably more than i can waste in the rest of my lifetime , but if Twiggy can spend some of that on successful projects , it probably hasn't been wasted

and Twiggy has earned those divs , just like any other shareholder , good for him

Absolutely... Twiggy earned those divs... but he was all whinging about carbon capture and the spending of 250M dollars for the technology...by the government...

 

[dat111]

Dat I suggest your comment misses the point. Twiggy was noting the engineering and environmental stupidity of supporting Carbon Capture as a response to reducing CO2 emissions. He is one of the few industry leaders who understands how serious the CC problem is and the need for super fast action in the right directions. He and everyone else in the power industry realise that :

1) Carbon Capture programs have had serious engineering problems to date
2) In almost all case the additional cost to production just makes the whole process economically nonviable. It is simply far more effective to build a wind/solar plus storage facility

There may be a few industries that can catch and store CO2 in a viable way. But not the ones being supported.

Wait a second.. He is talking about making Ammonia or Hydrogen using solar power...have you studied those costs... There are serious engineering problems. The cost to make ammonia or hydrogen using solar power is also economically nonviable. Having the dream to create green steel is wonderful but creating a product that costs a great deal more than what other people will be producing the same product for is bad business.

 

[Sharkman]

near term vol has actually eased off slightly, 1 week/2 week ATM was above 60 when i put on my call diagonal on sep 24, it was around 55-56 today. maybe a possible indication that the MMs think it's stabilising somewhat, but that would be a tenuous link at best, 55 does still seem fairly elevated.