FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[basilio]

WTF are you talking about. China imports it's IO and wants lower prices.

Yes...and No. China does have significant iron ore mines. In fact they made a point of having a go at Australia for the huge prices earlier this year and specifically focused on encouraging their mines to go harder. They currently supply around 20% of their requirements. China is also attempting to source scrap iron

But the economic facts are that China's mines are not as easy or profitable to work as Australia's. That is why the analysis I quoted noted that $100 US a tonne was about the break even point in terms of value.

Why Beijing’s ‘Made in China’ iron ore strategy is an empty threat

China has told its companies to produce more domestic iron ore as commodity prices hit record highs, but analysts say this will not reduce its reliance on Australian exports.

www.afr.com

Seven countries with the largest iron ore reserves in the world

From Australia and Brazil to Ukraine and India, just a handful of countries claim the biggest iron ore reserves to be found around the world.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

 

[waterbottle]

Abc reporting some sort of incident halting work at solomon mine...

 

[againsthegrain]

Abc reporting some sort of incident halting work at solomon mine...

Police involved too

 

[divs4ever]

SIGNIFICANT INCIDENT AT THE SOLOMON HUB

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (Fortescue, ASX: FMG) advises that a significant incident involving an
employee has occurred at the Solomon Hub this morning.
Site operations at Solomon have been temporarily suspended, pending a full investigation into the
incident. Fortescue is working closely with the WA Police and WA Department of Mines, Industry
Regulation and Safety.
Fortescue Chief Executive Officer Elizabeth Gaines said, “The safety and wellbeing of our team
members is our highest priority and at this time our focus is on ensuring that support is being
provided to our employees and contractors.”

DYOR

i hold FMG

 

[greggles]

Reading between the lines, it sounds like a serious injury that has not yet led to a death, but might.

 

[divs4ever]

UPDATE ON SOLOMON HUB MINING INCIDENT

Further to the announcement this morning, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (Fortescue, ASX: FMG) regrets to advise that there has been a fatality as a result of the incident at its Solomon Hub mining operations. Fortescue Chief Executive Officer Elizabeth Gaines expresses the Company’s deepest sympathy to the team member’s family, friends and colleagues. “This is a very sad day for Fortescue and all our thoughts are with his family as we provide our full support to them at this very difficult time. The wellbeing of the entire Fortescue family is our priority with a range of support services available across our sites, including the Fortescue Chaplains and Employee Assistance Program,” Ms Gaines said. The incident occurred when there was a collapse of ground and Fortescue is working closely with all relevant authorities. Mining operations at Solomon remain temporarily suspended.


DYOR

i hold FMG

involves a fatality , now

 

[againsthegrain]

So is the cat still bouncing or it rebounded?

 

[over9k]

China's manufacturing PMI just dipped below 50, signalling contraction:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-contract-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began

Beyond that, Beijing is signaling that it wants highly energy-intensive producers, like steel and chemical factories, to reduce output for the rest of the year, as it tries to meet environmental targets.

And then you have evergrande, china's debt leviathan, the population crunch...


There might be some bucks to be made short term but long term I am NOT a bull here.

 

[frugal.rock]

How about a 24 hour thread silence? out of respect for the man who went to work today, but isn't ever going home again.

My heart goes out to loved ones, family, friends and colleagues.

 

[waterbottle]

China's manufacturing PMI just dipped below 50, signalling contraction:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-contract-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began

Beyond that, Beijing is signaling that it wants highly energy-intensive producers, like steel and chemical factories, to reduce output for the rest of the year, as it tries to meet environmental targets.

And then you have evergrande, china's debt leviathan, the population crunch...


There might be some bucks to be made short term but long term I am NOT a bull here.

Environmental targets or is this colateral damage from failing to meet energy demand?

 

[over9k]

How about a 24 hour thread silence? out of respect for the man who went to work today, but isn't ever going home again.

My heart goes out to loved ones, family, friends and colleagues.

The same could be said for the squillions killed by the virus every day. There's been no shortage of days where I've just gone "Yes, more people died today, that means my investments are going to go up".

I take your point, but this is not a business/activity you can let your heart into. It's best to keep all of that out of it completely (good, bad and everything in between) IMHO.

You notice I never make any commentary about this kind of stuff either way - it's purely markets and nothing else.

 

[over9k]

Environmental targets or is this colateral damage from failing to meet energy demand?

It's actually largely an air quality thing over there.

They couldn't give two sh!ts about global warming or whatever other nonsense they come out with. It's pure energy security & air quality.

 

[divs4ever]

air quality , and the pollution during the Winter Olympics ( apparently in China ) sound reasonable , China taking advantage of any extra consequences , why not most of the world is in a Cold War with China , why be nice to people fighting you

 

[tech/a]

Ill post a chart on the weekend but I think that FMG is in a consolidation Phase.
There is certainly opportunity to take positions with little risk currently.
Unless iron ore plummets.

 

[Wedgy]

Was a bit slow in cancelling DRP on FMG, would of preferred the cash but missed the deadline by a couple of days for change and ended up with new shares at $18.09 each, with the current SP of $14.59 not a good deal. But I am confident in the long term prospects of FMG particularly with its future industries subsidiary.

 

[tech/a]

Ok Further to @notting suggestion that I mark up a chart I place these up for consideration.

Its actually how I trade my long term trades in one of my Super Portfolio's
This chart is not marked up 100% accurately its back of the drink coaster
but accurate enough to show why Im shaking my head with @Value Hunter
buying and just sitting.

Now Im going to get --yeh but your a trader and Trading it.
Truth is Im proactive in my investment,Im not passive.
I hope you can see why with this example.

So Very Simple Basic rules In Radges "Un Holy Grails.
Sell on a 20% down tern from Recent high.
Buy on a 20% increase from a Recent low.

Consolidations are a pain but ---let the charts explain.
Remember starting capital $600,000 and 200000 Shares.
(May not reflect Value hunters period ---but you'll get the idea)

I've split the charts up for clarity.

Ive not included DIVIDENDS but think they would go a long way to
mitigate tax issues.

 

[over9k]

Option two, because I'm an economics/macro guy, not a chartist:

Buy, sit, hold, see the stuff with evergrande, realise that at a macro level, china and thus iron ore and thus FMG are in a world of hurt, bail.

The chinese government has just announced that it's going to allow wholesale electricity prices to be increased to avoid the rolling blackouts etc. That drives up the input costs of steel production, which thus drives up the cost of steel, which thus reduces sales.

So, more pain ahead.

 

[Value Collector]

The chinese government has just announced that it's going to allow wholesale electricity prices to be increased to avoid the rolling blackouts etc. That drives up the input costs of steel production, which thus drives up the cost of steel, which thus reduces sales.

So, more pain ahead.

Higher electricity prices will mainly effect electric arc furnaces, which are used to recycle scrap, which means it will increase the cost of recycled steel, making steel from virgin Iron Ore more attractive.

Also, if this prevents the rolling blackouts it means the factories consuming steel to make the million different widgets China makes will continue to demand steel.

So Basically the daily consumption of steel will continue to draw down on the inventories of finished steel, and mills that use electric arc furnaces to melt scrap will be less competitive, or perhaps shut down completely, so unless China wants to run out of steel they will have to continue importing Iron Ore.

stock piles of finished steel have already been dropping each week, and now sit at the lowest point this year.

https://www.mysteel.net/article/5025994-0503/WEEKLY--China-mills-steel-stocks-down-to-years-low.html

 

[over9k]

Higher electricity prices will mainly effect electric arc furnaces, which are used to recycle scrap, which means it will increase the cost of recycled steel, making steel from virgin Iron Ore more attractive.

Also, if this prevents the rolling blackouts it means the factories consuming steel to make the million different widgets China makes will continue to demand steel.

So Basically the daily consumption of steel will continue to draw down on the inventories of finished steel, and mills that use electric arc furnaces to melt scrap will be less competitive, or perhaps shut down completely, so unless China wants to run out of steel they will have to continue importing Iron Ore.

stock piles of finished steel have already been dropping each week, and now sit at the lowest point this year.

https://www.mysteel.net/article/5025994-0503/WEEKLY--China-mills-steel-stocks-down-to-years-low.html

You sound like frugal rock with the rose-coloured glasses. There's a little more to it.

 

[Joe Blow]

I have moved the discussion related to buy and hold vs. active portfolio management to its own thread as I feel it is a worthy discussion on its own and isn't really about FMG. Please continue that discussion over in the new thread and continue the discussion of FMG here.