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FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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plenty of sanctioned nations for China to sell to if it gets tagged as a 'bad guy '

Afghanistan , Iran . Yemen , Cuba , Syria , North Korea the train-wrecks in Africa and South America after all China will do direct goods swaps ( no US dollars or gold needed )
 
over9k said:
I'm not overstating things when I say this might be china's lehmann brothers' moment.

Markets are very very jittery (and have already sold off massively) for a reason.
Click to expand...
Noted. Technically the domino effect will fall on all resource stocks - iron ore, gold etc - long shot then our education industry. GDP, jobs - Australia being a car selling country now (after killing all manufacturing bases) will be like Venezuela . Sad commentary
 
but China needed to slow and consolidate , if the rest of the world ( all the big players ) are a wreck as well it will not lose bargaining power the one to watch will be India who could easily creep closer to the top of the heap

am not as worried about China as to where all those bloody US dominated bonds went , there are a LOT of desperate pension funds out there will they get smacked again , this might still hit the West badly , and China will print their way out of local trouble ( they aren't in as massive a debt hole as the US , EU , and maybe not even Japan deep )
 
Miner said:
Noted. Technically the domino effect will fall on all resource stocks - iron ore, gold etc - long shot then our education industry. GDP, jobs - Australia being a car selling country now (after killing all manufacturing bases) will be like Venezuela . Sad commentary
Click to expand...
There's a reason for this big submarine deal with the yanks that they just announced.

Policy makers should have been (should have been) diverting australia's strategic trade and military ties to the USA for years now.



Here's a simple example of what the smart money has been paying attention to:

You know all this carryon about how everyone are going to build out renewable infrastructure this and electric cars that and blah blah blah?

Well, china's actually been very quietly building out coal, not renewable energy, but COAL powered plants like there's no tomorrow over the past few years. The smart money knew about this and called it months and months ago but fossil fuels just aren't fashionable like solar panels are.

HOWEVER... recently, a fair bit of that same smart money started pouring into coal stocks as the smart money did indeed realise just what IS going on with all of this.

Check this out, peabody energy, australia's 5th largest coal producer:

2456245724572454324325643256.jpg


See how aside from the last few days, it's absolutely screamed, being a 19 bagger and change at its peak if you'd bought back in the november trough?

Now china nearly entirely uses coal in its blast furnaces to make steel. If real estate goes, steel demand goes, and thus a lot of coal (and iron ore) demand goes.

HOWEVER...

China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States. So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.

Our Chinese friends now have 97.8 GW of coal-fired power under construction, and another 151.8 GW at the planning stage. And so while some poor sap was penning Xi’s carefully crafted speech to the UN, Xi and his underlings were busy. Busy financing and building out what is likely to be the worlds most impressive global energy infrastructure.

Just this year plants accounting for some 17 GW began construction in China. To put this into context this is more than the total amount approved during the previous two years. But they are not only investing in their backyard. Nope… according to a Boston University database they have made more than $244 billion in energy investments abroad since 2000 with the bulk of that in recent years going into oil and gas.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries. In total there are 1,600 new coal-fired plants planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.

3457637537.png


In short, whilst we here in the west have been trying to get off of oil (arab) dependence by moving to renewables, china's realised the fool's errand absolute idiocy that renewables actually are in their current state and pivoted (at least, as much as it can) to the MUCH smarter, more secure, reliable etc etc COAL (and here's an example of europe learning this lesson about renewables right now):

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-energy-crunch-forcing-u-224255590.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...runch-helps-push-u-s-power-to-seven-year-high

245764357347377356.jpg
42352642577542.jpg


And yet, meanwhile:

547435878786.jpg
756896789086700786.jpg



So the bottom line here is that not only is australia's only real remaining industry f***ed, but the only thing that will remain after it are coal and uranium exports, and natural gas if we can get a bit more of that moving (but gas is only something you use if you have no other choice on account of it being unbelievably difficult/expensive to actually move from one place to another, so that is never going to become a mainstay/staple of export).

Can you imagine if the greenies ever manage to torpedo those?

We are literally now headed to an economic situation where the only two pillars of export/income that remain will be the two most unpopular, most hated, most loathed, #1-on-the-****-list products of the entire political left.



In short, BTU (and other coal miners along with uranium miners too) are a buy-the-dip moment because they actually have some long term tailwinds.

Iron ore does not, and neither does this country, and God help us if the left ever gets into power.
 
over9k said:
There's a reason for this big submarine deal with the yanks that they just announced.

Policy makers should have been (should have been) diverting australia's strategic trade and military ties to the USA for years now.



Here's a simple example of what the smart money has been paying attention to:

You know all this carryon about how everyone are going to build out renewable infrastructure this and electric cars that and blah blah blah?

Well, china's actually been very quietly building out coal, not renewable energy, but COAL powered plants like there's no tomorrow over the past few years. The smart money knew about this and called it months and months ago but fossil fuels just aren't fashionable like solar panels are.

HOWEVER... recently, a fair bit of that same smart money started pouring into coal stocks as the smart money did indeed realise just what IS going on with all of this.

Check this out, peabody energy, australia's 5th largest coal producer:

View attachment 130462

See how aside from the last few days, it's absolutely screamed, being a 19 bagger and change at its peak if you'd bought back in the november trough?

Now china nearly entirely uses coal in its blast furnaces to make steel. If real estate goes, steel demand goes, and thus a lot of coal (and iron ore) demand goes.

HOWEVER...

China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States. So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.

Our Chinese friends now have 97.8 GW of coal-fired power under construction, and another 151.8 GW at the planning stage. And so while some poor sap was penning Xi’s carefully crafted speech to the UN, Xi and his underlings were busy. Busy financing and building out what is likely to be the worlds most impressive global energy infrastructure.

Just this year plants accounting for some 17 GW began construction in China. To put this into context this is more than the total amount approved during the previous two years. But they are not only investing in their backyard. Nope… according to a Boston University database they have made more than $244 billion in energy investments abroad since 2000 with the bulk of that in recent years going into oil and gas.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries. In total there are 1,600 new coal-fired plants planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.

View attachment 130471

In short, whilst we here in the west have been trying to get off of oil (arab) dependence by moving to renewables, china's realised the fool's errand absolute idiocy that renewables actually are in their current state and pivoted (at least, as much as it can) to the MUCH smarter, more secure, reliable etc etc COAL (and here's an example of europe learning this lesson about renewables right now):

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-energy-crunch-forcing-u-224255590.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...runch-helps-push-u-s-power-to-seven-year-high

View attachment 130464View attachment 130465

And yet, meanwhile:

View attachment 130466View attachment 130470


So the bottom line here is that not only is australia's only real remaining industry f***ed, but the only thing that will remain after it are coal and uranium exports, and natural gas if we can get a bit more of that moving (but gas is only something you use if you have no other choice on account of it being unbelievably difficult/expensive to actually move from one place to another, so that is never going to become a mainstay/staple of export).

Can you imagine if the greenies ever manage to torpedo those?

We are literally now headed to an economic situation where the only two pillars of export/income that remain will be the two most unpopular, most hated, most loathed, #1-on-the-****-list products of the entire political left.



In short, BTU (and other coal miners along with uranium miners too) are a buy-the-dip moment because they actually have some long term tailwinds.

Iron ore does not, and neither does this country, and God help us if the left ever gets into power.
Click to expand...
Excellent share.
Lots I did not know.
Now like to read and learn more.
Thanks a lot mate@over9k
 
over9k said:
There's a reason for this big submarine deal with the yanks that they just announced.

Policy makers should have been (should have been) diverting australia's strategic trade and military ties to the USA for years now.



Here's a simple example of what the smart money has been paying attention to:

You know all this carryon about how everyone are going to build out renewable infrastructure this and electric cars that and blah blah blah?

Well, china's actually been very quietly building out coal, not renewable energy, but COAL powered plants like there's no tomorrow over the past few years. The smart money knew about this and called it months and months ago but fossil fuels just aren't fashionable like solar panels are.

HOWEVER... recently, a fair bit of that same smart money started pouring into coal stocks as the smart money did indeed realise just what IS going on with all of this.

Check this out, peabody energy, australia's 5th largest coal producer:

View attachment 130462

See how aside from the last few days, it's absolutely screamed, being a 19 bagger and change at its peak if you'd bought back in the november trough?

Now china nearly entirely uses coal in its blast furnaces to make steel. If real estate goes, steel demand goes, and thus a lot of coal (and iron ore) demand goes.

HOWEVER...

China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States. So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.

Our Chinese friends now have 97.8 GW of coal-fired power under construction, and another 151.8 GW at the planning stage. And so while some poor sap was penning Xi’s carefully crafted speech to the UN, Xi and his underlings were busy. Busy financing and building out what is likely to be the worlds most impressive global energy infrastructure.

Just this year plants accounting for some 17 GW began construction in China. To put this into context this is more than the total amount approved during the previous two years. But they are not only investing in their backyard. Nope… according to a Boston University database they have made more than $244 billion in energy investments abroad since 2000 with the bulk of that in recent years going into oil and gas.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries. In total there are 1,600 new coal-fired plants planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.

View attachment 130471

In short, whilst we here in the west have been trying to get off of oil (arab) dependence by moving to renewables, china's realised the fool's errand absolute idiocy that renewables actually are in their current state and pivoted (at least, as much as it can) to the MUCH smarter, more secure, reliable etc etc COAL (and here's an example of europe learning this lesson about renewables right now):

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-energy-crunch-forcing-u-224255590.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...runch-helps-push-u-s-power-to-seven-year-high

View attachment 130464View attachment 130465

And yet, meanwhile:

View attachment 130466View attachment 130470


So the bottom line here is that not only is australia's only real remaining industry f***ed, but the only thing that will remain after it are coal and uranium exports, and natural gas if we can get a bit more of that moving (but gas is only something you use if you have no other choice on account of it being unbelievably difficult/expensive to actually move from one place to another, so that is never going to become a mainstay/staple of export).

Can you imagine if the greenies ever manage to torpedo those?

We are literally now headed to an economic situation where the only two pillars of export/income that remain will be the two most unpopular, most hated, most loathed, #1-on-the-****-list products of the entire political left.



In short, BTU (and other coal miners along with uranium miners too) are a buy-the-dip moment because they actually have some long term tailwinds.

Iron ore does not, and neither does this country, and God help us if the left ever gets into power.
Click to expand...
What's your source for China abandoning renewable energy?
If they truly didn't "believe" in renewable s then why build nuclear infrastructure instead of coal?
 
waterbottle said:
What's your source for China abandoning renewable energy?
If they truly didn't "believe" in renewable s then why build nuclear infrastructure instead of coal?
Click to expand...
Ahh nuclear is for green energy and renewable?..well done Mr Narrative .
Not a swipe at you @waterbottle , this is indeed what we are told.
Thanksfully i benefit from the narrative via uranium stock
nuclear=weapon, then a side business of power and medical industrial uses;
would be interesting to see a factual nuclear power carbon cost inc waste treatment...
the woke answer to that is usually: but coal leaves radioactive wastes. Which it does.
but no, China does not believe in CO2 causing global warning,and so just go for efficiency and cost.if solar is cheaoer,they go solar. Why not.
but not on abstract moral or dubious sciences
 
qldfrog said:
Ahh nuclear is for green energy and renewable?..well done Mr Narrative .
Not a swipe at you @waterbottle , this is indeed what we are told.
Thanksfully i benefit from the narrative via uranium stock
nuclear=weapon, then a side business of power and medical industrial uses;
would be interesting to see a factual nuclear power carbon cost inc waste treatment...
the woke answer to that is usually: but coal leaves radioactive wastes. Which it does.
but no, China does not believe in CO2 causing global warning,and so just go for efficiency and cost.if solar is cheaoer,they go solar. Why not.
but not on abstract moral or dubious sciences
Click to expand...
Which bring us back to steel and China does not care if it is green steel or not
If the west wants to pay a premium for clean steel, they will sell clean steel .usually by printing a sticker, putting it on and saying so... probably already rubbing their hands at the idea?
 
yes it is a very interesting ( global ) policy shift

when i was young ( in the Hippy era ) the Greens were very anti-uranium , they might not have loved fossil fuels , but tolerated them as a better alternative to turning the Earth 'into a radio-active waste dump ' , now the world is moving towards uranium ( instead of past uranium ) towards ' a less polluted planet' ( aka an extra level of taxation/regulation )

China will soon be the most powerful nation on the planet ( if it isn't already ) but that is liable to be a temporary thing ( maybe a century ) until India overtakes China

BTW last i heard China is making more nuclear power plants than anyone else both for local use and international customers , which means more coal for them and their steel mills ,

but can we blame China , i would suggest not because many Western nations smugly offloaded manufacturing to China over the last 30 years in the name of 'a cleaner environment ' ( at home )
 
as is the toxic waste , currently

which asks the question , what research is being done to re-purpose that waste ( apart from turning it into armor-piercing projectiles )

we have been aware of this issue for 40 years
 
the problem will always be cost efficiency , currently there is a tax/regulation agenda , and i assert that is the wrong way of doing things

a positive incentive always works very well for me

FMG has tried to do the right thing more often than some rivals , surely you would try encouragement first , for such a company

maybe the problem is the various levels of government
 
divs4ever said:
the problem will always be cost efficiency , currently there is a tax/regulation agenda , and i assert that is the wrong way of doing things

a positive incentive always works very well for me

FMG has tried to do the right thing more often than some rivals , surely you would try encouragement first , for such a company

maybe the problem is the various levels of government
Click to expand...
FMG and twiggy are doing a great job, especially with regard trying to diversify into renewables, it should eventually improve their bottom line as fuel is a big cost.
As for tax, I doubt FMG are taxed any differently than BHP, Rio or any other miner.
The thing is, it is always difficult to get into the big league it costs a huge amount of money, but FMG has got there.
Now the trick is to become a diversified miner, rather than a one trick pony.
Only selling one commodity, when it cycles, so do you. :2twocents
 
On the question of the world and China's electricity production, I'll let the data speak for itself:

1632060610734.png


1632060647592.png


Looking ahead, yes China is building more nuclear but it's by no means the backbone of the nation's energy strategy given that, for electricity generation, coal and hydro are both being pursued far more enthusiastically in terms of scale and are both already far larger than is nuclear.

China's total energy consumption, all purposes not just electricity:

1632061723073.png


I wouldn't count on making a fortune in the Chinese nuclear industry anytime soon.

My personal opinion FWIW is that China would almost certainly use more gas if they could obtain it. Natural gas, hydrogen, any gas really as long as they can physically obtain it at an economical price. There's a huge potential market for it as a direct heat source in industry, displacing coal in situations where pollution is most problematic (eg in cities). In that context hydrogen or hydrogen carriers (eg ammonia) produced by FMG or others are possible candidates subject to price and infrastructure at the Chinese end.

At present China's using coal for industrial purposes, that is as a heat source not for electricity generation or making steel, in situations that make sense only due to the lack of workable alternatives. Situations that countries with greater access to gas, of whatever type, generally wouldn't do. Think "factories in the suburbs" type operations - you don't burn coal in the boiler by choice, you do it because you've got no choice. :2twocents
 
Last edited:
China if it wanted to , can buy plenty of weapons grade uranium from Russia as it decommissions it's old nuclear missiles

previously Russia was selling it to the US , but as far as i know the deal has been canceled
 
Smurf1976 said:
On the question of the world and China's electricity production, I'll let the data speak for itself:

View attachment 130500

View attachment 130501

Looking ahead, yes China is building more nuclear but it's by no means the backbone of the nation's energy strategy given that, for electricity generation, coal and hydro are both being pursued far more enthusiastically in terms of scale and are both already far larger than is nuclear.

China's total energy consumption, all purposes not just electricity:

View attachment 130502

I wouldn't count on making a fortune in the Chinese nuclear industry anytime soon.

My personal opinion FWIW is that China would almost certainly use more gas if they could obtain it. Natural gas, hydrogen, any gas really as long as they can physically obtain it at an economical price. There's a huge potential market for it as a direct heat source in industry, displacing coal in situations where pollution is most problematic (eg in cities). In that context hydrogen or hydrogen carriers (eg ammonia) produced by FMG or others are possible candidates subject to price and infrastructure at the Chinese end.

At present China's using coal for industrial purposes, that is as a heat source not for electricity generation or making steel, in situations that make sense only due to the lack of workable alternatives. Situations that countries with greater access to gas, of whatever type, generally wouldn't do. Think "factories in the suburbs" type operations - you don't burn coal in the boiler by choice, you do it because you've got no choice. :2twocents
Click to expand...
Gas is *the* ideal energy source if you can get it. Problem is, it's so, so, SO difficult to move that it's generally not used unless you have no other choice.

The only exception is when you don't need to transport it. Then, then it's the best thing in the world. Gas is actually the biggest reason for how big of a deal that shale is, not oil ;)
 

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