FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[againsthegrain]

short selling and panic seems to be ruling the market at the moment, perfect time to.....

 

[sptrawler]

short selling and panic seems to be ruling the market at the moment, perfect time to.....

Wet yourself, if you're over exposed. ?

 

[divs4ever]

and what if you are bearish on the Australian dollar ( and not bullish on the US dollar )

but yes the FMG focus on China as a customer might take the shine off the share price ( which is not discouraging to me )

there is a TINY chance Glencore would throw in an offer but i suspect 'mini-Ivan' still prefers RIO ( which might boost the FMG share price anyway )

 

[frugal.rock]

A couple of observations,
today was the biggest volume day and one day drop, in over a year. (not including dividend scalp drop days, but not far from the last divvy.)

From around the 2nd of August, average volume clicked to approx' double time, with all of that volume pretty much selling pressure.

Intraday day chart today shows 2 distinct plateau consolidation levels.

Volume on close bar alone, was around a standard full average days trade!

Refer to charts for observations...

Im not saying the bottom is in, but gee, it seems to be close.

Twiggy, with his huge recent dividend, may already be at the masquerade ball, and buying.

After all, it's no surprise iron ore price was going to fall.

Investors haven't really heard anything about the staggering amount of ground with applications in for Hydrogen exploration, so how can the market factor that into the price?
That's yet to happen, imo.

Sooner or later they will announce something about that...

Intraday chart

Daily

The amount of prospective hydrogen map again... applications went in somewhere around June/July this year.

 

[over9k]

A couple of observations,
today was the biggest volume day and one day drop, in over a year. (not including dividend scalp drop days, but not far from the last divvy.)

From around the 2nd of August, average volume clicked to approx' double time, with all of that volume pretty much selling pressure.

Intraday day chart today shows 2 distinct plateau consolidation levels.

Volume on close bar alone, was around a standard full average days trade!

Refer to charts for observations...

Im not saying the bottom is in, but gee, it seems to be close.

Twiggy, with his huge recent dividend, may already be at the masquerade ball, and buying.

After all, it's no surprise iron ore price was going to fall.

Investors haven't really heard anything about the staggering amount of ground with applications in for Hydrogen exploration, so how can the market factor that into the price?
That's yet to happen, imo.

Sooner or later they will announce something about that...

Intraday chart

View attachment 130426

Daily

View attachment 130427

The amount of prospective hydrogen map again... applications went in somewhere around June/July this year.

View attachment 130428

Yeah but it closed at session lows and then the U.S markets are deep into the red tonight and still dropping as I write this (sp500 is down 0.77 as of this moment) after futures were pretty much flat all day today.

So, it closed at session lows with U.S futures flat and now the U.S markets have plunged which wouldn't have been factored in to AU markets today on account of the fact that the futures didn't suggest its occurrence, and it STILL closed at session lows even ignoring that.

So pretty likely that monday will be deep into the red.


Sorry I couldn't be the bearer of any good news rock

 

[over9k]

ADR's are down 10.7% as of 12.49 AU eastern time and have flattened out vs FMG being down 11.48% for the day on the ASX so there might be some exchange rate movement in FMG's favour (drop in the AUD). Little good news else I can find I'm sorry.

 

[over9k]

Iron ore all over the news tonight:

Talking heads that trade european miners and commodities are mentioning a $75 iron ore price coming as an overshoot/bottom and fundamental support level before a level out around the $90 mark. Consume with salt.

 

[divs4ever]

$75 ( a tonne for iron ore ) would imply a glut ( perhaps, Brazil coming back to full production ) OR a wider down-turn in manufacturing and construction ( say ,a global economic meltdown )

while either is possible , what is likely

good luck

DYOR

 

[over9k]

$75 ( a tonne for iron ore ) would imply a glut ( perhaps, Brazil coming back to full production ) OR a wider down-turn in manufacturing and construction ( say ,a global economic meltdown )

while either is possible , what is likely

good luck

DYOR

bingo

 

[over9k]

U.S steel has also plummeted:

Which, to state the obvious to the new players out there, means there is a demand drop driving this plummet in FMG.

Remember, you'd expect steel producers to go UP if their input costs had dropped but demand hadn't.

 

[qldfrog]

$75 ( a tonne for iron ore ) would imply a glut ( perhaps, Brazil coming back to full production ) OR a wider down-turn in manufacturing and construction ( say ,a global economic meltdown )

while either is possible , what is likely

good luck

DYOR

Or Africa coming on market with chinese producers in chinese controlled local governments.
Iron is far too common on earth to justify these sky high prices IMHO..
Just a matter of time, actually surprise me it took so long for IO to even start falling.i was wrong . or right 10y too early?

 

[frugal.rock]

Sorry I couldn't be the bearer of any good news rock

That's ok.
Thanks for all the bad news... much obliged.?

Luckily, Dr Twiggy has been planning other things for quite some time.
I hadn't really gone looking for hydrogen stocks lately when they have been on the rise.

Are investors still looking at Fortescue as a iron miner?

I'm thinking, if markets are forward pricing, it's about time the markets start pricing in the future growth potential of the hydrogen business of FMG.

Twiggy at Boyer Lecture.
Started watching last night, will finish today.
From what I saw, it's a real eye opener, as I haven't delved into hydrogen before now.
Very much worth watching, imo.
Skip to 1:18 to avoid Ita Butttrose...



I'm going to attempt to make myself a little learned about hydrogen this weekend.
Long over due.

In thinking about the future with iron ore prices dropping, FMG, WA AND AUSTRALIA as a nation, should be getting behind this hydrogen project.
Almost rubber stamping it if you will...imo, the hydrogen prospects/ tenements applications should be fast tracked due to sovereign benefit.

The foremost and pressing concern would be incomes and jobs going ahead, but there's also the green environmental aspects, which are probably more important down the track as the world pushes to be carbon neutral.

 

[Austwide]

Home sales in China slumped 20%, according to Bloomberg calculation, and one of the biggest property developers Evergrande is on the brink of default.

Brazilian iron ore supply is increasing

Iron ore production increasing with demand falling, lower IO prices.

Hydrogen projects I’m guess are a few years away from producing if funding is available.

IO is about $100 now.


When IO was around $75, FMG was around $5.


Can’t happen………………………………………can it?

 

[KevinBB]

When IO was around $75, FMG was around $5.

The other thing to note about this time (FMG @ $5) is that investors were just starting to realise that FMG was capable of completely removing its debt burden. I remember FMG's debt being talked about, both in the media and by analysts, as being too large for the company.

I didn't believe that FMG was a good investment at the time, solely because of the debt burden. But ... Andrew Forrest knew better.

I'm sure that the debt burden had quite an influence on FMG's share price at the time.

KH

 

[Value Collector]

Home sales in China slumped 20%, according to Bloomberg calculation, and one of the biggest property developers Evergrande is on the brink of default.

Brazilian iron ore supply is increasing

Iron ore production increasing with demand falling, lower IO prices.

Hydrogen projects I’m guess are a few years away from producing if funding is available.

IO is about $100 now.


When IO was around $75, FMG was around $5.


Can’t happen………………………………………can it?

FMG was severely undervalued when it was $5, I wouldn’t compare prior share prices and prior Iron ore prices.

it’s better to work out how much profit FMG will make a various iron prices and work you valuation off that.

for example one simplistic valuation is to look at 2020. Iron Ore averaged $93 for that year (some months less, some months more), but when Iron Ore averaged $93, they were able to pay $1.76 in dividends that year.

Now what would the share price be if the dividend yield was 5% on that $1.76 of dividends? The answer is $35.

As you would realise, even though the last dividend by itself was $2.11 for just 6 months, FMG has not ever come close to $35 yet, this is a clear sign that the super high Iron Ore prices of 2021 were never really priced in, because the market already suspected the Iron Ore price would fall, the $93 Iron Ore price of 2020 wasn’t even really factored in.

people will always over reacted when a commodities companies product price falls, but you don’t have to let yourself get swept away with it.

 

[againsthegrain]

A couple of observations,
today was the biggest volume day and one day drop, in over a year


The obvious is, somebody was still buying, found it a good deal. Not to sound like a broken record but hardly many places to park money for a good % return these days. If property drops a few % with 1-2% rental returns where else do you park your stash

 

[qldfrog]

The other thing to note about this time (FMG @ $5) is that investors were just starting to realise that FMG was capable of completely removing its debt burden. I remember FMG's debt being talked about, both in the media and by analysts, as being too large for the company.

I didn't believe that FMG was a good investment at the time, solely because of the debt burden. But ... Andrew Forrest knew better.

I'm sure that the debt burden had quite an influence on FMG's share price at the time.

KH

Indeed that was my concern so i was more Rio than FMG..but andrew must have guessed negative interest rate were coming and debt was the way to go

 

[tech/a]

Well you don’t park it in heavily falling investments

No amount of dividends are going to cover a fall in the asset
of 40+%. Nor will reams of paper work or hours of video.
Liquid assets can help by being nimble —— no point in
having the ability and not having a strategy to use it.

I just don’t understand why people literally stand back and let
others control their financial situations. I came in on the FMG
show at around $23 there is an $8000 saving / 1000 shares
right there. It’s not about being a smart arse it’s about mitigating risk.

I don’t care if you bought 10000 at $10 bucks sitting on your hands
cost &80k now ____ which could be in your pocket ready to buy perhaps
again or something else.

Hard to swallow.I’d fire any financial guy who sat on his hands!

 

[DannyB0000]

Screenshot of Iron Ore prices, totally fallen off a cliff. More heavy selling for FMG next week I suspect

 

[over9k]

@Joe Blow probably time to add this to the FMG thread as it is indeed the demand side that has sent iron ore and with it, fmg, tumbling.