FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Austwide]

Didn't WW1 and WW2 follow depressions

 

[over9k]

Sure but there's been plenty of depressions that didn't precede wars.


We aren't going to have WW3 with china guys, jesus christ...

 

[againsthegrain]

Didn't WW1 and WW2 follow depressions

unemployment and inflation were key features too, sounds familiar

 

[divs4ever]

Didn't WW1 and WW2 follow depressions

before WW2 , absolutely both my parents grew up in The Great Depression ,
before WW1 am not so sure but there were has times from what i have read

BUT are we already in WW3 a war against the middle class , looks a valid struggle and a largely global one at that

add in a possibly manufactured virus etc etc

 

[sptrawler]

How do you fight a war if you're bankrupt?

You sign a lend lease and print money.

Lend-Lease - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think the U.K was the only country to pay it back.

Britain pays off final instalment of US loan - after 61 years

Britain will today make the final payment on a multi-billion-dollar loan it took out in 1945 to refinance the country in the wake of the Second World War.

www.independent.co.uk

What is the old saying? The more things change, the more they stay the same.
What it really means is, future generations just repeat the same things, the earlier generations did.

 

[sptrawler]

before WW2 , absolutely both my parents grew up in The Great Depression ,
before WW1 am not so sure but there were has times from what i have read

BUT are we already in WW3 a war against the middle class , looks a valid struggle and a largely global one at that

add in a possibly manufactured virus etc etc

WW1, the "Great War", the war to end all wars.

WW2, the war Germany had to have, because they were punished heavily for WW1.

WW3, maybe because we have too many people, wanting so much, from a finite resource?

Time will tell.

 

[divs4ever]

the population was already declining in several modern nations to the extent where extra immigration is desired

so that is a straw-man , nature adjusts human populations at it's own discretion , usually thinning out over-dense populations

now the resources MIGHT be finite or we might not be investing in utilizing them effectively ( i suggest the latter )

and while i see greed as good , i see uncontrolled greed as self-destructive ( if i didn't believe in greed i would never invest )

i suggest WW3 is in progress and it is a ( near ) global class war ( but sometimes dressed up as racial clashes and religious divides )

 

[frugal.rock]

You lot are unreal !

I buy FMG for the first time in my life and then you bloody lot start discussing WW III in the FMG thread ?
Absolute degenerates ?

If you's are gonna plonk yaselves down and git on the goon n yabber crap, yous can at least invite me eh bloke? ???

Now, back to the hydrogen discussions....?

 

[divs4ever]

buying FMG is so yesterday ( for me )

and wars NORMALLY means extra iron demand

now while some are very excited about hydrogen .. where will it be used

remember the WEF agenda is to crush the middle class ( so forget owning those nice cars and houses )

' you will own NOTHING ( rent EVERYTHING ) and be happy '

 

[sptrawler]

You lot are unreal !

I buy FMG for the first time in my life and then you bloody lot start discussing WW III in the FMG thread ?
Absolute degenerates ?

If you's are gonna plonk yaselves down and git on the goon n yabber crap, yous can at least invite me eh bloke? ???

Now, back to the hydrogen discussions....?

Well what do you expect, we have been reading endlessly for the last 5 pages of FMG, how the sky is the limit YO $100 here we come.
Now we are all feeling deflated and morbid, because the bubble bursts, of course there will be some melancholy.
My apologies, I should have said 20 pages.

 

[frugal.rock]

now while some are very excited about hydrogen .. where will it be used

Massive hydrogen hub in WA at Gascoyne.
It's gonna power processing plants and smelters as well as power WA.

Failing that, Hindenburg II, III, IV, V
and lots of bloody hydrogen boms

 

[divs4ever]

won't be many customers for long it they start using H bombs

now IF you had of said space exploration , yes you might have something apart from a MUCH bigger debt problem

 

[over9k]

Oh dear.

 

[finicky]

Just idle speculation but do you think FMG might get down to the $12 zone? The argument, if it merits the term, would be:
- the double top at $26 with the trough $19 that gives a measured target of 7 down from the trough which would be $12. The 62% fib should be around $12 too (measuring the bull run as $4 to $26)
Doubt I'll bother to buy even if that's an outcome because of general market pessimistic sentiment.

 

[over9k]

I hate to rub the salt in, but after doing $6000USD on a degenerate 3LNI trade a couple of weeks ago to have it fully rebound after my sale in less than a morning:

I am so freaking glad I didn't buy any FMG when I was thinking I really should grab at least one value stock:

Pure gamble/degen trade from here IMO and with the U.S markets in the red tonight too I can't help but think we haven't seen a bottom yet.

I mean I could be wrong, but I'm not touching this thing with a bargepole.

 

[over9k]

 

[sptrawler]

Going back to basics, pre the run up in iron ore prices, what was the average FMG price?
What has changed between then and now with FMG to value it above the pre iron ore price boom? Has it improved its recovery costs? Has it diversified its market? Has it diversified its product? Has it increased its market share?

If not, why wouldn't it go back to its long term average price to iron ore price ratio?

 

[divs4ever]

** Just idle speculation but do you think FMG might get down to the $12 zone? **

maybe

the other thing to watch is COSTS , watch out for profit margin squeeze

after the market today , i lowered my FMG buy order BELOW $15 ( and will be watching to see if shaving a few more cents off the limit price is worthwhile )


to my mind this is still the consolidation phase of the cycle ( when more buy-outs should occur )

take care , but don't panic

 

[over9k]

Going back to basics, pre the run up in iron ore prices, what was the average FMG price?
What has changed between then and now with FMG to value it above the pre iron ore price boom? Has it improved its recovery costs? Has it diversified its market? Has it diversified its product? Has it increased its market share?

If not, why wouldn't it go back to its long term average?

China.

 

[sptrawler]

China.

Well if you are bullish China paying more for the ore, then FMG will go up, if you think China will pay less for the ore, then FMG will go down.
Easy
I think China will pay less, time will tell.