Federal election Saturday, September 14, 2013

[Garpal Gumnut]

This election can be easily won by Labor and the Greens.

Any folk from the right side of politics remember that.

The ALP may win.

gg

 

[Country Lad]

Some canny media observer made comment on this but I cant remember the link................ Essentially, since the "official" campaign won't start until a few weeks before the actual polling day, all media hype by the Blowhard gummint up to that date will be paid for in full by the Australian taxpayer. However, having to respond to the impending tsunami of taxpayer-funded gummint media propaganda, the opposition or any other non-gummint parties will have to fund their media responses out of their own pockets.

33 days before the poll date in fact. If you look at the dates she has set, it is the bare minimum 33 days before the writs.

............Gillard will ramp it up to a flat out blitz 'em campaign for about 3 months before the date and for most of which the coalition can not claim the costs. When she is so far behind, she needs the longest campaign time she can get. By calling the date now and issuing writs only 33 days from the election, she makes sure that the opposition doesn't have nearly as much of the election funding they need if she called the election and issued the writs say 2 months from the election.

Bligh did the same in Qld by nominating the date early and issuing the writs as late as possible, effectively having a long funded campaign for her but not for the LNP. Didn't help her much either.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[drsmith]

And if Abbott was in the chair he would not do the same, as in fact John Howard did by promoting his cause at taxpayers expense all the time.

In fact it was not till his time that leaders came to respond to every incident with news in it. Sir John has taught them all well. It was always tradition and protocol for the Queen or representative (the Governor General) to open the Olympic Games, but again, would be, Sir John cast them aside and did that too.

No, Gillard is just following the new established status qua.

John Howard never called the election date from this far out.

He was never this worried about any threat to his position from within.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

John Howard never called the election date from this far out.

He was never this worried about any threat to his position from within.

+1

It is odds on that KRudd will mount a challenge within 4 weeks.

gg

 

[MrBurns]

+1

It is odds on that KRudd will mount a challenge within 4 weeks.

gg

I think you may be right gg, Gillards name is mud now especially after Thompsons arrest, she is finished, even more than before.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think you may be right gg, Gillards name is mud now especially after Thompsons arrest, she is finished, even more than before.

Yes Burnsie,

I have a few $1000 bets on with some of the locals about the hotel on Rudd.

They got the student/school money and are flush.

I gave them even money odds, as I don't like greed.

gg

 

[explod]

+1

It is odds on that KRudd will mount a challenge within 4 weeks.

gg

Rubbish, on last count he did not even have the support of 1 in 3. Since then in the eyes of the rank and file she has done okay.

To mount any sort of a challenge without stuffing up his parties chances at the election he would need that to go 70% his way. Just cannot see that myself.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Rubbish, on last count he did not even have the support of 1 in 3. Since then in the eyes of the rank and file she has done okay.

To mount any sort of a challenge without stuffing up his parties chances at the election he would need that to go 70% his way. Just cannot see that myself.

The "rank and file" do not matter mate.

They do not matter.

Nova Peres has proven that.

If the Greens want to get anywhere they need to have the Machiavellian ticker that the ALP have.

Rudd will challenge, and soon.

gg

 

[MrBurns]

Rubbish, on last count he did not even have the support of 1 in 3. Since then in the eyes of the rank and file she has done okay.

Check the support after today.......

To mount any sort of a challenge without stuffing up his parties chances at the election he would need that to go 70% his way. Just cannot see that myself.

Labor have no chance as of right now and it's only going to get worse, a new pair of glasses wont fix it.

Rudd might get some sympathy votes, Gillard sure wont.

 

[MrBurns]

Can a by election still happen now the election date has been announced ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Can a by elction still happen now the election date has been announced ?

Sure can, up until the 35 days.

Someone croaking it may cause a bye.

With all the stress that has been happening, not a complete outside chance.

gg

 

[noco]

Well, the hidden agenda is now out in the open why this conniving and cunning Prime Miniater of ours called the election on the 14th September.

Should either Craig Thomson or Peter Slipper were to be convcited of a criminal offence in the next 6 months which would normally have created a bi-election, Miss Gillard is protected becuase according to the constitution rules it is not neccessary to call a bi-election once the General election has been announced.

So obviously, although she denies it, she new before the announcement about the pending arrest of Craig Thomson. She also now has her back side covered should Slipper be convicted as well.

Anything to stay in power!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[MrBurns]

Well, the hidden agenda is now out in the open why this conniving and cunning Prime Miniater of ours called the election on the 14th September.

Should either Craig Thomson or Peter Slipper were to be convcited of a criminal offence in the next 6 months which would normally have created a bi-election, Miss Gillard is protected becuase according to the constitution rules it is not neccessary to call a bi-election once the General election has been announced.

So obviously, although she denies it, she new before the announcement about the pending arrest of Craig Thomson. She also now has her back side covered should Slipper be convicted as well.

Anything to stay in power!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course, there is still an outside possibility the election could be earlier. The government could lose an important vote in the House and be forced to resign. There could be a change of Labor Leadership, and any new Leader may chose to adopt a different election date. But the prospects of a change from the September 14 timeline looks unlikely.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...on-date-announced-14-september-2013.html#more

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well, the hidden agenda is now out in the open why this conniving and cunning Prime Miniater of ours called the election on the 14th September.

Should either Craig Thomson or Peter Slipper were to be convcited of a criminal offence in the next 6 months which would normally have created a bi-election, Miss Gillard is protected becuase according to the constitution rules it is not neccessary to call a bi-election once the General election has been announced.

So obviously, although she denies it, she new before the announcement about the pending arrest of Craig Thomson. She also now has her back side covered should Slipper be convicted as well.

Anything to stay in power!!!!!!!!!!!

noco, The protection of the innocent is paramount.

These cases will not be dealt with this year.

Any court cases will go well beyond Yom Kippur.

Leviticus 16:1-34; 18:1-30

gg

 

[Julia]

Thanks for posting link to Antony Green's blog, Burnsie. Really good to have some questions answered by someone who knows what he's talking about.

 

[sptrawler]

The Thomson issue is going to weigh heavy on Labor for the next couple of months. I think the early election call is going to backfire, as everything else has.
It will put Labor under the microscope, more so than the coalition, as they have nothing to hold up as a legacy to their time in office.
The only winners from the last five years have been the Greens, that's why Bob went out on a high.
The Australian public isn't dumb, it will be a landslide. IMO
Buying votes isn't going to work, as the Australian public knows todays handout comes back to bite you in the ar$e.
That is the very reason Rudd won't get back in, his splash of cash from 4 years ago, now looks like a pawn brokers loan. The government now is trying to tell the same people we are in the manure, well duh, why?
The majority of voters are paying down debt as fast as possible, that tells the government they don't have confidence in them.
It's all over bar the ballot.IMO
Also Gillards close association with the union isn't going to be a plus, as the Thomson issue unfolds.
This could still get messy if the Independents, decide to bail out.

Though that is unlikely, if they are pees from the same pod. LOL
It doesn't look good for Rob and the boys either.

 

[tinhat]

Congratulations! You have successfully portrayed your ignorance for all to witness. Grow up.

shalom, shalom.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It has now become apparent that the main reason for a Yom Kippur election, called by Julia Gillard is a fear of Kevin Rudd.

No more. No less.

From the AFR to which I have had a free subscription over summer and will only cost me 99c in February.

Several supporters of Mr Rudd told The Australian Financial Review  that they had far from given up hope of a leadership change between now and the election but the caucus still had to come to the realisation that Ms Gillard could not win, and shift its support.

If anything, one said, the nomination of an election date would “mean they have to focus’’.

One MP described the start to the year as “horrendous’’.

He cited last week’s messy process to force out Northern Territory senator Trish Crossin and replace her with former athlete Nova Peris as a poor start.

Said another: “It was a good idea done badly.’’

This was compounded by the election date decision, which has polarised the caucus. Many believe it was a mistake.

“Every time she rolls the dice, it goes badly,’’ one of Ms Gillard’s detractors said.

The despondency was only deepened by the arrest on Thursday of former Labor MP Craig Thomson, and the pall that will cast over the party and Ms Gillard when Parliament resumes next week.

Both camps acknowledge Mr Rudd still does not have the numbers.

“The Rudd camp would do it tomorrow if they could, but they can’t,” said one of Ms Gillard’s supporters.

He said the Prime Minister had shown “guts’’ by making two big plays early in the year.

The decision this week by the former attorney-general, Robert McClelland, to retire at the next election was also broadly regarded as a sign that Mr Rudd could not make a comeback.

Mr McClelland was one of his most ardent supporters and was thrown out of the ministry for his overt criticism of Ms Gillard during the leadership challenge in February last year.

gg

 

[explod]

Rudd will challenge, and soon.

gg

Yep, on reflection you are probably right, his ego is so high, but wont have a chance. However an increase to his side will further weaken Gillard and on losing the election the spiteful fellow will be able to say "I told you so"

The Libs need Turnbull or Bishop to take charge to be sure of victory. Abbott the last day or so umming and arring will become worse as he moves further into the campaign, where more off the cuff is required, and is just not going to cut it.

Yep, the Green vote will improve.

 

[Country Lad]

The financial position of the parties probably has more to do with the 7 month campaign than anything else. As mentioned before, the coalition do not get electioneering costs reimbursed from now to 33 days before the election. The government can use incumbency for much of their travel costs and advertising can be done under the cloak of "government information".

Both parties are in debt. By naming the election date now, we are effectively in campaign mode, Labor will get a relatively free run and the libs can't afford a long campaign.

LABOR has debts of $11.9 million while the Liberals are $15 million in the red on the eve of federal election season, the latest returns to the Australian Electoral Commission reveal.

Bob Katter's Australian Party reported debts of nearly $940,000, but has enjoyed the support of some high-profile donors including James Packer, who chipped in $250,000 last financial year to support it.

http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story...ter-but-libs-labor-are-millions-in-debt/?cs=8

Cheers
Country Lad