Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

European Shares Positioned For Further Loses

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11 September 2008
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Friday, 03 October 2008 03:38:30 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettle, Senior Strategist and Ilya Spivak, Analyst

FTSE
Short - Risk 5,525 - Target 4,350

DAX
Short - Risk 6,627 - Target 4,950

CAC 40
Short - Risk 4,559 - Target 3,400


FTSE 100

Long-term Technical Outlook

09-25-08_ftse_LT.gif


It is possible that a double zigzag correction is complete but unlikely. For one, wave c of the second zigzag falls short of equality with wave a. That level would be at 4493, not far from a Fibonacci confluence at 4320-4361. Favor weakness to these mentioned levels as long as price is below 5649.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

10-02-08_ftse.gif


London shares have oscillated lower in a bearish channel with the most recent tops marked by a downward sloping trend line. Prices have found near-term resistance and are extending lower, with the next level of support at the psychologically significant 480000 level.

DAX 30

Long-term Technical Outlook

09-25-08_dax_LT.gif



As long as the DAX is below 6627, we expect a drop to challenge 5244 (June 2006 low). Long term support from Fibonacci begins at 4933 and a Fibonacci extension is at 4606.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

10-02-08_dax.gif_281513828.gif


Similar to the FTSE 100, the German benchmark index is trading in a bearish channel and below a downward sloping near-term resistance trend line. Support is seen at the channel’s lower boundary near 56000.

CAC 40

Long-term Technical Outlook

09-25-08_cac_LT.gif


The CAC 40 should continue lower towards the level where wave Y would equal wave W (if indeed a double zigzag decline is unfolding). This level is 3390. A bearish bias is warranted against 4559.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

Trading in line with most European exchanges, the CAC 40 is moving lower in a bearish channel. Prices found resistance and a moving lower, with near term support lining up near the 395500 mark.

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