ERG has flatlined...some TA studies

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Intraday chart, only reason I'm posting these is to get a feel for the pattern as we observe this important stage in the price action, will it or won't it be the turning point for ERG? Let's hope it is and have our stops in place in case it isn't. Anyone find the intraday's useful? Nice to see that white candle today but not exactly the most bullish type. Holding above 35c but not enough buy depth- buyers always appear when things look bad just to prop it up, must be a few on the sidelines or daytraders in for a quick bite.

ERG appears to have become more stable with consensus just above 35c today- also reflected in the last few days prices.

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

A weak close but looks like there's some agreement that 35c is the floor (atm).

 

[taurus]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Spec buy? or a wait-and-see.

news article

Wouldn't mind knowing how strong their DCS's are versus the competition. Like with Cubic Corp winning a Sweden contract that I'm sure I heard ERG was bidding for...I don't know how much competition they have this time round.

Will be interesting to watch...I'm tempted to buy, but hesitant.

T

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Spec buy? or a wait-and-see.

news article

Wouldn't mind knowing how strong their DCS's are versus the competition. Like with Cubic Corp winning a Sweden contract that I'm sure I heard ERG was bidding for...I don't know how much competition they have this time round.

Will be interesting to watch...I'm tempted to buy, but hesitant.

T

Thanks for the link T, that really is a great article, worth reading, MD Sullivan certainly seems to be a no nonsense, roll-up-the-sleeves type of guy, he's done a lot in the short time he's been there judging by the numbers. It's going to be hard yakka but if they get that Victorian contract next month ERG should get going as the analyst suggests. A breakout from the current range would probably be a safer entry too but that's just my view.
Let's see if we can get our hands on some analyst reports over the next few weeks...

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Here's the intraday again. Not showing much of a change so I'll just stop for now. Again closing lower as agreement is just above 35c. Recent increase in top buyer depth is notable so 35c appears to be confirmed, for now. Must be waiting on the Melbourne contract result.

 

[stockGURU]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

ERG looking good again this afternoon.

Volume is high and it looks as though it may finish the day strongly.

It will be interesting to see if it can break through resistance at 40 cents.

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

ERG looking good again this afternoon.

Volume is high and it looks as though it may finish the day strongly.

It will be interesting to see if it can break through resistance at 40 cents.

Hi Guru,
Yep, sure is a goer atm, flag breakout, measured move, closed at 39c on very high volume again, volume pattern corresponds to breakout too. Maybe I'll post another intraday chart tonight. Looks like it's going to say a final goodbye to that bottom formation, ain't over yet though....

 

[ghotib]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

I'm really fascinated to read a technical discussion of this stock, which I've been watching for some months as a long-term income generator. I've now had 3 different viewpoints on it:

1. My partner in life put some windfall cash into it in 2002 because of the strength of its products and their market. Ooops - necessary but not sufficient. (No complaints from me though: another windfall several years ago went into Newcrest.)

2. I took a long look last year and liked the way the company's performance has aligned with management plans and forecasts for four years. If I'd had some spec cash I might have bought in at about 29 cents, though I think when I first posted about it here I was hoping for 23 (well who wouldn't).

3. Now the technical signals seem to be that it's going for a bit of a share price run. I don't see that the company performance justifies that yet: the last reports I've seen forecast tight cashflow till at least 2006, and the company still has to demonstrate that its learnt how to deliver large projects profitably. So I think a surge now would be purely trading, and not yet the start of a consistent uptrend.

Very interesting, and a nice lesson in the importance of being very clear with myself about why I'm making a trade and what the stock has to do to stay in my portfolio.

Thanks to all

Ghoti

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Hi Ghoti,
Yes, different views, this one isn't a certainty yet but it's getting there. Different views are what make a market. The bottom line is you've got to be comfortable with your strategy, glad to see interest picking up in this stock, there seem to be some long time holders/watchers around. I have to say this isn't my safest stock for FA profile but the breakout looked great and IT is getting in vogue again, it's the profit annct that did it. A contract or two and the market will give it a second chance. I'll probably book a quick profit if FA looks shaky, but still too early to say if I'll come out ahead.

Here's the intraday, solid close. Buyers aren't alwasy obvious from mkt depth so volume is more reliable.

 

[stockGURU]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Buy side depth building up nicely this morning with an hour and a half before the open.

Buyers
Number Quantity Price
1 100000 0.430
3 33500 0.420
1 50000 0.405
10 295750 0.400
12 660500 0.395
17 550230 0.390
17 1001966 0.385
23 945713 0.380
9 196500 0.375
18 405500 0.370

Sellers
Price Quantity Number
0.390 16065 3
0.395 612327 8
0.400 404149 22
0.405 386060 6
0.410 643698 14
0.415 218750 2
0.420 348347 16
0.425 240000 4
0.430 129873 10
0.435 88000 5

One to watch this morning.

 

[tech/a]

ERG

For Interest.

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Intraday, strong close, let's see if this continues, looking good...

 

[dutchie]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Nice day to day analysis there RichKid.

As predicted.

Hope it keeps going north.

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG

Hi Tech,
Great chart, very interested in following the thread. Quick question- are you hoping to do something different with this thread on ERG (ie technical look at measured moves only?), reason I ask is because I was thinking of merging it with the current ERG thread to keep things organised. Not sure if we have a multiple threads policy so I'll see what Joe says. A special project probably deserves its own thread but if it's the same stock we could merge it. Just adiministrivia, let's wait for Joe...and your thoughts Tech.

 

[tech/a]

Re: ERG

Didnt know there was an ERG thread going.

Happy to see it moved to there.
The Measured Moves are just added for interest,like all tech analysis sometimes they are accurate others they are less than accurate.

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG

Didnt know there was an ERG thread going.

Happy to see it moved to there.
The Measured Moves are just added for interest,like all tech analysis sometimes they are accurate others they are less than accurate.

Tech,
Okay, done! (also see two old threads on ERG linked at the bottom of this page).

My initial view was that you measure a flag breakout from the point where it broke out (ie last bar high before breakout) upto lower end of flag and then you measure that distance from the point where the next flag breakout commences to get a target- make sense? That would be the minimum move to be expected, if it holds to form. Only issue is some flags are hard to draw clearly so the measurement may vary depending on how you draw the lines. Maybe there are many methods or I may have misunderstood the method, I'll keep researching it. Thanks for you diagramme, makes it clearer to read (unlike my posts).

 

[RichKid]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Nice day to day analysis there RichKid.

As predicted.

Hope it keeps going north.

Hi Dutchie,
This one did all the work on its own after the first few days- which was when it needed close supervision!
Let's see if it keeps going, nice volume is very encouraging, Tech/A will be adding his invaluable observations too so let's see if we can predict how this goes- Technical analysis has a nasty way of biting you when you get too comfortable with it, so I'm very wary.

 

[tech/a]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Some correction needed.

 

[dutchie]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Tech/a

Would you mind explaining your chart a bit more -I am a bit slow and can't follow it.
Where did the 10c come from, the second green arrow?

 

[dutchie]

Re: ERG has flatlined...

Tech/a

Our posts overlapped!
Think I understand it better with your second diagram.
So first 9c move is measured from the last low(29.5) and the high (38.5) at the last +ve movements. Then the next move could be 1x, 1.5x or 2x (9c,13.5c or 18c) from the low(34.5) after that high?