Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ERA - Energy Resources of Australia

Jabiluka will not stay idle for much longer.:D


http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page43?oid=52339&sn=Detail

AUSTRALIAN URANIUM

Sleeping uranium giant Jabiluka now clearly in ERA’s thinking

A presentation to the United States market by the Rio Tinto-controlled Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) showed that one of the world’s sleeping uranium giants, the Jabiluka project, is now firmly in the company’s development plans.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Tuesday , 06 May 2008

PERTH -

Jabiluka in the Northern Territory, originally discovered by Pancontinental Mining, has been politically sterilised from development for more than three decades but the political door is now open with the NT and South Australia now amenable to development of new uranium mines.

Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ASX: ERA) has one political hurdle and that is an undertaking given about three years ago by a Rio Tinto executive along the lines that Jabiluka's development would need the sanction of the traditional landholders in that sector of the Alligator Rivers region. That has seen anti uranium groups undertaking heavy lobbying of the genuine and the questionable land titleholders for Jabiluka, which has reserves of 11.8 million tonnes grading 0.5% U308 for 59,000t of contained U308 (at an 0.2% cut-off grade), and resources of 15.18 Mt @ 0.5% U308 for 76,403t (0.2% cut-off). Old reports indicate Jabiluka also has a gold zone containing up to 1 million ounces.

At ERA's Ranger mine, which has operated for 28 years and been the world's second largest uranium operation, the Ranger 3 deposit has remaining reserves of 32.11 Mt @ 0.15% for 49,671t (at an 0.08% cut-off grade for in situ ore and 0.06% for stockpiled ore) and resources of 42.39 Mt @ 0.12% for 50,567t U308 (including low grade stockpiled ore not processed).

In the US presentation ERA's chief executive Chris Salisbury said Ranger 3, which processes ore at 2.4 Mt per annum, is due to cease mining in 2012 though the processing life will go through to 2020.

After a declaration of force majeure in 2007 the company expects normal production this year. Despite this 2007 produced record profit of $A76 M ($US71.89 M) from $A362 M ($US342.4 M) revenue with the production of 5,412t U308.

Salisbury said ERA sells uranium under long term contracts and the average realised price lifted in 2007 to $US25.06/lb compared with 2006's $US18.36 and 2005's $US16/lb. The contracts, generally of 3-5 years duration, have a mixture of pricing mechanisms including being "fixed price/base escalated", linked to market indicators and negotiated prices.

He said about half of the metal at Ranger 3 is in existing stockpiles and the remainder is in situ in the current final pit shell design.

"The future processing of the material is subject to a detailed study to be concluded mid year," he said.

With the Pit 3 extension work which extended mine life to 2012 an additional 4,857t (10.7 M lbs) of uranium was added to reserves.

There was also a "significant exploration pipeline" with targets including Ranger 18 and trial seismic surveying was underway for drill targeting purposes.

ERA is 68.4% owned by Rio Tinto.
 
In the US presentation ERA's chief executive Chris Salisbury said Ranger 3, which processes ore at 2.4 Mt per annum, is due to cease mining in 2012 though the processing life will go through to 2020.

ERA is 68.4% owned by Rio Tinto.

Hm so the expected mine life isnt that long 2020

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 41.7 57.0 106.6 194.8
DPS 20.0 29.0 79.0 119.6


thx

MS
 
Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long Ascending Triangle in the chart?

Aurum.
I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.
 

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Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long

Aurum.
I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.


Hi Aurum,

I am not a chartist but I have noticed a clear trend line in the lows & highs

I have believe ERA was a good investment for about a year now - A lot of upside and very little down side -There will be significant profit increases probably for several years - given that the long term price of U is much higher than the average U price that todays profits are based on - and contracts being made now will affect profits upto 7 years from now (meaning they will finish then).

Very few companies have a floor of rising profits for several years - The rest is upside meaning that if the price of U just stays as it is - If ERA has any exploration success, if Jabilika moves forward Then ERA has more blue sky.

Most companys face the real prospect of their profits disappearing e.g Qantas if fuel prices go up, retailers if we have a recession - banks if the cost of finance goes up


But ERA has a resource that won't disappear and a growing customer base that must buy (it very expensive to have reactors idle)

I admit I sound very pro-ERA but I have made criticisms e.g I wish there was more transparency with their contracts. - I am an investor however I only say it as I see it and welcome any opinions

Cheers,
Peteai
 
Hi Aurum,

I am not a chartist but I have noticed a clear trend line in the lows & highs

I have believe ERA was a good investment for about a year now - A lot of upside and very little down side -There will be significant profit increases probably for several years - given that the long term price of U is much higher than the average U price that todays profits are based on - and contracts being made now will affect profits upto 7 years from now (meaning they will finish then).

Very few companies have a floor of rising profits for several years - The rest is upside meaning that if the price of U just stays as it is - If ERA has any exploration success, if Jabilika moves forward Then ERA has more blue sky.

Most companys face the real prospect of their profits disappearing e.g Qantas if fuel prices go up, retailers if we have a recession - banks if the cost of finance goes up[/COLOR]

But ERA has a resource that won't disappear and a growing customer base that must buy (it very expensive to have reactors idle)

I admit I sound very pro-ERA but I have made criticisms e.g I wish there was more transparency with their contracts. - I am an investor however I only say it as I see it and welcome any opinions

Cheers,
Peteai

Hi Peteai, but does it have a short mine life?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 41.7 53.1 125.2 182.6
DPS 20.0 29.0 67.8 108.0


thx

MS
 
Hi Peteai, but does it have a short mine life?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 41.7 53.1 125.2 182.6
DPS 20.0 29.0 67.8 108.0


thx

MS

Hi Michael,

What I consider the base case is it finds no more U. To estimate the life of the mine I checked out their reserves & resources at Ranger. 110mill pound of U reserves & about 120mil pound resources. If you just include the reserve and assume $US 50 profit per pound that equates to $US 5.5 billion With ERA mkt capitalisation now at $4.5 bill. Of course this is very rough, does not allow for much of a discount rate

But as I mentioned previously I think there is much more room on the upside - more resources (they is almost assured & add the possibility of Jabiluka - strong when you consider the global warming imperative is only going to get stronger)

Cheers,
Peteai
 
Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long Ascending Triangle in the chart?

Aurum.
I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.

Hi Aurum,

I checked the chart again and it is staying within the ascending_triangle you mention - however there is less & less room between the highs & lows - so the annual report will come out just on cue for the lines to join and force a break from this pattern

Hey now I'm a chartist:D

Cheers,
PETEAI
 
This stock has been smashed beyond the market and prices recently.
I can't recall seeing any negatory news. Anyone heard anything lately ?
 
This stock has been smashed beyond the market and prices recently.
I can't recall seeing any negatory news. Anyone heard anything lately ?

nope - apart from some sort of review to start this week
Date: 13/10/2008
Author: David Ciampa
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 26
During the week commencing 13 October 2007, Energy Resources of Australia willannounce its 2008 third quarter operations review. Also during the week, the TenNetwork will report its annual results and Brickworks Investment Company willstage its annual meeting. RiverCity Motorway, which recently reported a $A37.6mprofit, will hold its AGM on 15 October

interesting though - I was trying to buy back in apr/may at $18 support level but insto buying didn't let it drop - duh, that makes the instos smarter than me then, who is still biding their time
now below $10 on intraday trade when the general market is having a little uptwitch
 

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now below $10 on intraday trade when the general market is having a little uptwitch
Crikey!! More than halved in 3 months. Disaster short term for the buy and hopers...eeeek!

POU smashed down to $53 may be the answer, but aren't they hedged to the hilt with their forward contracts selling at about $20 a pound or something stupid.

What's the long term POU forecast anyone? Isn't it around the $90 mark? Maybe Cigar Lake has been miraculously drained?

Once they are inevitabley allowed to dig up Jabiluka I anticipate a significant re-rating.

Hmmmmm.
 
Crikey!! More than halved in 3 months. Disaster short term for the buy and hopers...eeeek!

POU smashed down to $53 may be the answer, but aren't they hedged to the hilt with their forward contracts selling at about $20 a pound or something stupid.

What's the long term POU forecast anyone? Isn't it around the $90 mark? Maybe Cigar Lake has been miraculously drained?

Once they are inevitabley allowed to dig up Jabiluka I anticipate a significant re-rating.

Hmmmmm.

my understanding is that yes, they have had LT contracts for < $20 and ERA has been playing difficult with expiry date details of these but generally (a few months back) concensus was that a significant number of low price contracts expires this half of the year and more in first half of next
suspect the market was expecting these to be re-written at $80-90 but now sees this as highly unlikely - helluva dip though
 
my understanding is that yes, they have had LT contracts for < $20 and ERA has been playing difficult with expiry date details of these but generally (a few months back) concensus was that a significant number of low price contracts expires this half of the year and more in first half of next
suspect the market was expecting these to be re-written at $80-90 but now sees this as highly unlikely - helluva dip though

I thought they would have rolling contracts through the years i.e some made in 04,05,06,07. But if it is as you say - their time has been extraordinarily bad

PETEAI
 
As am I. :)

I can't see any reason to be long ERA. Still firmly in an almost year long downtrend, in a market that is showing a tendency to roll over on stocks in established downtrends. Seasonal mining difficulties coming up... in what looks to be a very wet wet season. Just a few reasons to get short... plus, ERA reacts badly to any market correction...

But there is both good and bad news. The good news being that this should only get to it's lower trend line. The bad news is, that trend line will be between 10 and 11 dollars if/ when it gets there.

A couple of T/A observations. I'm assuming we are in a corrective c of some sort. A symmetrical C should see this get to about 10.80. We also have quite an obvious and symmetrical H&S pattern just about complete. The breakdown target from that is in the low 12's. Another interesting thing, is that this has had almost no buying interest on dips. Volume just stays flat. Virtually no interest on up days of late either. All this points to a high probability of seeing ERA between about $12 and $11.

With the chance of a very good R:R trade on it.

Cheers.

P.S. - obviously I'm shorting it.

era6108.png

Lolza...

I really should have stayed short. :)

Looks completely ****ed now. Where to from here?........
 
Miraculous recovery. Another stock that would have paid a handsome return with some courage to buy the capitulation hitting lower support. Or, you could have lost your pants. In retrospect, what a miss. :(

Media seem to be jumping back on the U bandwagon recently with a few reports of POU bottomed and recovering. ERA and PDN specifically mentioned as ok Aussie U plays.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24867933-462,00.html
 

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Miraculous recovery. Another stock that would have paid a handsome return with some courage to buy the capitulation hitting lower support. Or, you could have lost your pants. In retrospect, what a miss. :(

Media seem to be jumping back on the U bandwagon recently with a few reports of POU bottomed and recovering. ERA and PDN specifically mentioned as ok Aussie U plays.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24867933-462,00.html

HI

uxc_graph_u3o8_2yr.gif
uxc_graph_u3o8.gif


ERA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 41.7 53.2 127.7 187.8
DPS 20.0 21.0 88.0 72.1


PDN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS -6.2 6.4 20.5 32.7
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Scrip in Perth-based Black Range soared 40 per cent yesterday after it announced that Canadian mining giant Uranium One would help finance the development of its Taylor Ranch project in the US.



thx

MS
 
Is Rio's announcement today clicky good news for ERA? As ERA is 60% owned by RIO it would make sense for them to use ERA for this exploration.

Is this a reasonable assumption or am I way off the mark.

Aurum.
 
Is Rio's announcement today clicky good news for ERA? As ERA is 60% owned by RIO it would make sense for them to use ERA for this exploration.

Is this a reasonable assumption or am I way off the mark.

Aurum.
They probably wouldn't use ERA as such, but perhaps poach some key exploration staff from there or from Rossing. Or, start a new unit. I don't think ERA has done any exploration outside of Ranger and Jabiluka.
 
A very clear breakout above $20 today and up nearly 6% but on small volume. It's been threatening to breakout for a while, whilst the rest of the market was falling apart. Or maybe it is just participating in the current DCB.:)

Aurum.
 

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This one just goes from strength to strength...
Another important break today. Could be in a Wave 5 though? ( Elliot wave illiterate) :confused:
 

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Anybody got any fundamental opinions one this one? Nearing all time highs, time to reverse? Attached is the chart
 

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