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Is a slow paddler....
IS COMETH
IS COMETH
Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...
Take what you care from that.
Can you unconfirm that?
I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.
the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.
Happy Trading
James S. Chanos, one of America's foremost investors who built a multi-billion fortune foreseeing the collapse of Enron, believes he has identified the next big global conglomerate to fail: China.
Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for collapse - not the sustained growth most economists widely believe will help lift the global economy out of recession.
Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, says China's surging property sector is bloated with speculative capital and looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse."
"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he told CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China."
............with even a hint of the possibility that China may have fabricated some of its astounding economic numbers.
Whatever the merits of Mr. Chanos’s case, what cannot be denied is that something is up in the air (although again it is very difficult to put one’s finger on it). Nevertheless, even some Chinese officials have admitted that China might indeed be vulnerable to asset bubbles. And while remembering that China had a huge stimulus program, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy stated on French radio, albeit commenting on the global economy, that "in flooding the economic and financial system with public money we have also created bubbles which will have to be absorbed."
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
“The Chinese,” he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.”
The easy credit might well have also encouraged overproduction of finished goods with reports that textile mills were told to keep operating via soft loans in order to keep people in jobs.
Such is the delicate state of the world's recovery with the rest of Asia increasingly dependent on trade with China ("the second decoupling"), that decisions taken in Beijing over the next few months are going to be of huge importance.
Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......
Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.
So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?
Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:
China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......
The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.
Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?
The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.
In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?
It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO
The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.
Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?
The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.
In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?
It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO
The timescale is irrelevant?
So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?
My question still stands and you didn't answer it.
Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?
All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.
I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.
You lot sound like i did when i first moved here. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes.
This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively.
North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.
Cheers,
CanOz
Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.
Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?
CanOz
Yes I can, and do.
And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.
But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1
Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?
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