End of the China bull?

[Uncle Festivus]

The main point all along with China is that input costs are rising (oil, iron ore & food) and margins are going even more negative ie more companies are operating at a loss thanks to the government subsidising funds and or mis-allocation of funds. All the while an expanding money supply with which to pay for it, as accumulated $US depreciate at a growing rate, along with $US denominated investments.

 

[Temjin]

The Chinese government are doing the right thing. No intervention in the stock market to bail out the risk takers = GOOD. Focus on combating inflation by restricting access to credit through monetary policy and banking reserve requirement = REALLY GOOD.

At least they admit there is an inflation problem and they are doing everything in their power to control it. Unlike the US...what inflation? So no such thing, let's just keep printing to bail out everyone! (except the middle class/poor)

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Actually starting to feel a bit sorry for them now - must be a bounce any day now . Maybe Rocky & Bullwinkle (Paulson & Bernanke) can offer to show them how real capitalists do it .

 

[Uncle Festivus]

.......

Of course, China's growth may prove more fragile than it looks. Inflation has reached the danger zone of 8.3pc. The central bank tightened credit again yesterday. The Shanghai bourse has lost almost half its value since peaking last autumn. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, warns that China faces post-Olympics "crunch" as the colossal bad debts of the state banking system exact their toll.

 

[ithatheekret]

I think the big picture that most of the media twits playing where's wally have missed , is that simple thing called need .

When looking at the emerging countries for buffer in our case and other producer nations to some extent , the majority have there eye focus on China now and a / the build up to India .

These types have lost sight of the ball and are running up the field alright , but they will either fumble or drop the play , because there's Brazil and quite a few Sth American countries next , as well as other Asian nation like Vietnam etc., to come next .

These nations have needs . Those needs will grow just as their cities and populations are .

All will need more infrastructure etc., etc., and will begin to grow economies of their own , that will blossom this time around as they are the ones that can easily set themselves up as bread baskets etc. etc.

 

[Kauri]

End of the China bull?

aahhh.. you know what they say about bulls in china shops..

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Actually starting to feel a bit sorry for them now - must be a bounce any day now . Maybe Rocky & Bullwinkle (Paulson & Bernanke) can offer to show them how real capitalists do it .

stocks rise and stocks fall UF what's your surprise? You think it can just go up and up and up? What u posted is what a normal market does.. All I can see is a coming opportunity.

regardless of the spin u are whipping up there is a opportunity in the making here in my opinion we just need the time element to confirm it.

P.S and who said that conventional chart patterns don't pay off check out that double top.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

stocks rise and stocks fall UF what's your surprise? You think it can just go up and up and up? What u posted is what a normal market does.. All I can see is a coming opportunity.

regardless of the spin u are whipping up there is a opportunity in the making here in my opinion we just need the time element to confirm it.

P.S and who said that conventional chart patterns don't pay off check out that double top.

Hi J.

No, I'm not surprised at all. I have called it all the way.

No spin to whip up, just hard data as you show too. Make what you want of it. I only present the facts - China is not immune from profit margin erosion from rising inputs. Both China & India are increasingly outsourcing to other 3rd world countries like Thailand?, Vietnam and African nations.

There is a surprising lack of reporting by anyone of the slump going on in China.

So how did you 'trade it'?

In the meantime the rest of the world is helping to pay for their 'progress' in the form of higher prices.

 

[CamKawa]

China's Stocks Are Set for Biggest Weekly Decline on Record
``It's panic selling and the confidence of the market has collapsed,'' said Chen Shide, who manages the equivalent of $212 million at GF Fund Management Co. in Guangzhou
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apTHzJ8e6blA&refer=home

CSI 300 INDEX

 

[numbercruncher]

Hows Petrochina hey ? Was the worlds first Trillion Dollar company now down 60pc+ from then !

Maybe the Chinese are learning all sorts of harsh lessons about credit binges , gambling etc

All the cheap Labor in the world isnt going to save you from a Global slowdown baby.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And what a bounce it is. Amazing what you can do with the savings from a lower tax rate .

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Chinese stocks soared in Shanghai Thursday, after the government slashed a tax on share transactions in a move aimed at bolstering a stock market that ranks among the worst performers in Asia so this year.

The government's decision to slash the stamp duty on share transactions from 0.3% to 0.1%, announced late Wednesday, also boosted China-related stocks in Hong Kong. The reduction marks a reversal of the increase in the stamp duty imposed by Beijing last year as part of its measures to cool surging stock prices.
"I don't think China wants a runaway up-market, but they probably want to stop the rot. The (Shanghai Composite) was down nearly 50% from its highs and there was a loss of investor confidence, which is not so good," said Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Brokerages. "We may have seen the bottom of the Shanghai market for now."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...A7E-4DB2-B05D-224D80C5DAC6}&dist=MostReadHome

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A China update, or, what happened to our great saviour?

Australia's eggs in the China basket case?

A severe recession for Australia and civil revolution for China?

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economic slowdown is deepening, with overcapacity in almost all industries, and won’t bottom out until after the first quarter of next year, two senior officials said today.
“The international financial crisis is having a severe domestic impact,” Li Yizhong, head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press briefing in Beijing. “We don’t think we’ve bottomed out yet, and the impact will broaden further in December.”
Exports fell for the first time in seven years last month, imports plunged and manufacturing contracted by a record as the global recession pushed the world’s fourth-biggest economy into a slump. The slowdown will deepen before a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package kicks in from the second quarter of next year, Liu He, a senior economic policy official, said at a conference in Beijing.
Stocks fell the most in three weeks after the cautions and the weakest retail-sales figures in nine months. The CSI 300 Index declined 4.2 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKXiB34dAAI0

Coal - the greenies don't have to worry after all?

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, may face an energy oversupply within the next two years as the global recession slows the country's economy.
The nation may see a surplus of coal, fuels and electricity because of waning demand and a ``sizable'' expansion in output capacity, Wang Siqiang, a deputy director at the National Energy Administration, said at the China Energy and Environment Summit in Beijing today.
Chinese exports fell for the first time last month in seven years as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression slashed demand, retarding industrial fuel consumption and electricity use. The government is expediting project approvals in the energy sector to help stimulate the economy, which expanded at the weakest pace in five years in the third quarter.
``China's energy demand growth has slowed and previously tight supplies have turned relatively ample,'' said Wang.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3.b0h.nSPww

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......

The bullish view - the stimuli are working
The bearish view - the stimuli is promoting a new round of bubbles, pushing the stock market higher but still making things that nobody wants ie steel & aluminium etc etc? Bad news for BHP & RIO etc etc

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- China’s gross domestic product, battered by collapsing exports, grew at the slowest pace in almost ten years, probably marking the low point for the world’s third-biggest economy.
GDP expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, after a 6.8 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure compares with the 6.2 percent median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
China’s economy shows signs that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan is working, fueling a surge in bank lending and spurring the Shanghai Composite Index to an eight-month high. The State Council said yesterday that it will cut export taxes for some electronics products and offer cheaper credit to manufacturers to spur shipments overseas.
“The recovery is still at a very fragile stage,” said Yu Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. “The tug of war between upside risks from domestic investments and downside risks from weaker external demand will continue.”
Today’s report coincides with a statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that China isn’t a currency manipulator. His stance eases pressure on China to allow its currency to rise, hurting efforts to revive exports.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az4OW44aUopA&refer=worldwide

 

[Aussiejeff]

And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......

The bullish view - the stimuli are working
The bearish view - the stimuli is promoting a new round of bubbles, pushing the stock market higher but still making things that nobody wants ie steel & aluminium etc etc? Bad news for BHP & RIO etc etc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az4OW44aUopA&refer=worldwide

I hear a bull in a china shop - and it's roaring in pain.

Maybe the hero of the story Unca ObamaSan can administer an overdose of bubble-bath balm to ease the badness away.

Tell me the story again, Puff Daddy....

 

[Sean K]

And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......

My charts must be upside down.

 

[Aussiejeff]

My charts must be upside down.

LOL

 

[Uncle Festivus]

My charts must be upside down.

Intraday futures, right on midday big spike down.

Time for backtracking - do not offend your biggest lender?

April 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner refrained from labeling China as a currency manipulator, backtracking from an assertion he made during his confirmation hearings in January.
In its first semiannual report on foreign-exchange policies since Geithner became secretary, the Treasury said that while the yuan remains “undervalued,” no country “met the standards” for illegal currency manipulation during the period of the report, from July 2008 through December 2008.
The conclusion clashes with Geithner’s January 22 statement to a Senate panel that President Barack Obama “believes that China is manipulating its currency.” Today’s shift may anger U.S. lawmakers, companies and trade unions who have sought measures to punish nations perceived to have undervalued exchange rates.
“Clearly the Treasury has made more of a political decision than an economic decision here,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The truth is the Chinese manipulate their currency.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIlW3KeVLqW0&refer=home

Too much steel?

 

[Largesse]

IS COMETH

 

[Sean K]

Yep, China has no money and is bankrupt.

It will always be the way.

CNPC secures $35bn to buy energy assets

Sarah-Jane Tasker | September 10, 2009
Article from: The Australian

OIL and gas giant China National Petroleum Corp has secured a $US30 billion ($35bn) low-interest loan from China Development Bank to finance overseas acquisitions, with Australia's lucrative liquefied natural gas assets believed to be on its radar.

China has aggressively sought opportunities to invest in overseas oil and gas projects, among other resources, with Australia high on its target list.

CNPC subsidiary PetroChina has already made a significant commitment to Western Australia's massive Gorgon LNG project, agreeing to buy $50bn worth of LNG from the project over 20 years, guaranteeing its viability.

Analysts said companies with LNG projects about to be developed were likely to be on the Chinese giant's radar, with Santos and Oil Search flagged as potential targets.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Yep, China has no money and is bankrupt.

Not quite, but they do have plenty of USD's that they are frantically trying to swap for things that have real value though - what will the sellers do with USD's??