End of the China bull?

[Real1ty]

IS COMETH

Is a slow paddler....

 

[yjtrader]

Is a slow paddler....

hehehe

 

[Mr J]

IS COMETH

I always loved this one.

 

[sinner]

Took a month, but this distribution finally played out on Friday and retested today.

China led on the way up, will it lead on the way down? I am extremely bearish.

PS: For anyone reading this who has an IB account, what sort of spreads do you get on HSI futs?

 

[skc]

Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...

Take what you care from that.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...

Take what you care from that.

Can you unconfirm that?

 

[skc]

Can you unconfirm that?

Of course not! What does "highly unconfirmed" mean to you?

I just heard that from some local punters in Hong Kong.

 

[wildkactus]

I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.

the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.

Happy Trading

 

[Aussiejeff]

I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.

the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.

Happy Trading

UP THE REDS!!!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......

James S. Chanos, one of America's foremost investors who built a multi-billion fortune foreseeing the collapse of Enron, believes he has identified the next big global conglomerate to fail: China.

Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for collapse - not the sustained growth most economists widely believe will help lift the global economy out of recession.

Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, says China's surging property sector is bloated with speculative capital and looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse."
"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he told CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China."

http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/58114,business,hedge-funder-chanos-predicts-chinas-collapse

............with even a hint of the possibility that China may have fabricated some of its astounding economic numbers.


Whatever the merits of Mr. Chanos’s case, what cannot be denied is that something is up in the air (although again it is very difficult to put one’s finger on it). Nevertheless, even some Chinese officials have admitted that China might indeed be vulnerable to asset bubbles. And while remembering that China had a huge stimulus program, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy stated on French radio, albeit commenting on the global economy, that "in flooding the economic and financial system with public money we have also created bubbles which will have to be absorbed."

Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
“The Chinese,” he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.”

The easy credit might well have also encouraged overproduction of finished goods with reports that textile mills were told to keep operating via soft loans in order to keep people in jobs.

Such is the delicate state of the world's recovery with the rest of Asia increasingly dependent on trade with China ("the second decoupling"), that decisions taken in Beijing over the next few months are going to be of huge importance.

http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/2010/01/china-govts-actions-critical-f.html

 

[Unnamed User]

Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......

Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.

So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?

Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:

China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.

So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?

Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:

China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......

The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.

Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?

The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.

In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?

It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO

 

[Aussiejeff]

The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.

Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?

The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.

In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?

It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO

IMO what IS a known fact is that the World's "Population Bubble" is THE one biggy that is propping all other "bubbles" up.

As long as the World Pop Charts keep heading skywards, demand for pretty much everything is at least maintained or rapidly increased as well.

Without the current rapid World Pop Growth, most other related "growth bubbles" (economic / financial / RE etc) would almost certainly *POP* - some for good.

"Populate or (have your economy) perish" is even more desirable now than ever.

Is everyone here holding up their end in that regard??

Chairman KRudd is onto this and will see us right with a massive boost to immigration to ward off any economic demons...

 

[Unnamed User]

The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.

Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?

The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.

In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?

It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO

The timescale is irrelevant?

So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?

My question still stands and you didn't answer it.

Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?

All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.

I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.

 

[CanOz]

You lot sound like i did when i first moved here. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes.

This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively.

North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The timescale is irrelevant?

So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?

My question still stands and you didn't answer it.

Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?

All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.

I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.

Well yes, the timeframe is unknown, but if you see a car going down the street with only 1 wheel nut you know eventually what will happen? The thread title ends with a question mark and my posts are my interpretation & discussion of what may happen in the future based on ecological (desertification) & financial <sustainability> or lack there of ?

Commodities - short term? Timescale? FYI have a look at the LME wharehouse stocks at this site

http://www.infomine.com/commodities/

if there really was an insatiable hunger by China for commodities then the stockpiles would be scraping along the bottom? It tells me that they have had their fill, the system is saturated and is waiting for global consumption to resume?

And good to see you are contributing to the ASF community now

You lot sound like i did when i first moved here. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes.

This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively.

North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.

Cheers,


CanOz

That's the problem then - consuming more than production? The only way it can do this is by having the worlds default currency. The US is a large importer of Chinese goods. Employment is now back to the same level it was 10 years ago. The most generous predictions by economists say they might create 1 million jobs this year, if the so called recovery eventuates. In the meantime consumption of Chinese goods stays low, tax reciepts keep dropping and expenditure keeps going up.

Simple supply demand mathematics, with dodgy data? It will catch up in the end ie when the reserves dry up? Japan was held in the same regard 20 years ago, and they are still a basket case - convergent capitalism - you can only submit your consumers to an ultimate debt to income ratio before they say no more living beyond our means, a la Japan, the US the UK, Spain, Greece, Iceland ad infinitum? Who then buys the Chinese stuff?

There is also the remote possiblity that should something happen in China ie pandemic, civil war over the haves & have nots etc that because it is the worlds manufacturer there could be a big void in supply? Developed countries have little or no manufacturing of this type anymore.

 

[CanOz]

Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.

Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.

Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?

CanOz

Yes I can, and do.

And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.

But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1

 

[Aussiejeff]

Yes I can, and do.

And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.

But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1

Sorry to hear that Unc. Thanks for raising your side of the argument. Without two sides, there is no debate....

Seems the polarization of opinions in the aftermath of the GFC is still increasing to the point where many "moderate" pundits are giving up offering any opinion at all.

Soon the forums will be populated only by hardliners from both sides.

I myself am a rare visitor now - seems I may as well be pissing into the wind with anything other than a cynical remark or two regarding the follies of the human condition..

Ciao and good luck then!

I for one would welcome you back anytime.


aj

 

[Macquack]

Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?

Obviously you do CanOz, you do live there.

What is it with you expats? You get a good paying job, embrace the new culture and then the new motherland's ideologies become gospel and the country where you came from are just a bunch of nongs.

BTW, Uncle Festivus please come back, ASF is turning into a running of the bulls festival.