End of the China bull?
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CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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People see them coming, but its human nature to believe that the current state will continue forever. History is littered with wrecked bubbles. That's what we do, Inflate, bust, reflate, bust....
CanOz
People see them coming, but its human nature to believe that the current state will continue forever. History is littered with wrecked bubbles. That's what we do, Inflate, bust, reflate, bust....
CanOz
True ... we let our vested interest get in the way of seeing the facts. Doesn't help that all the media and government sources are giving mixed signals.
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First the disclosure: I have substantial money tied up in China.
I think China is in its infancy and hasn't even stood up yet. I think China has yet to show us its amazing minds and abilities.
A new economy needs to crawl, then stand and then walk.
I say look to the Baltic Dry Index for the lead to China.
I think China is in its infancy and hasn't even stood up yet. I think China has yet to show us its amazing minds and abilities.
A new economy needs to crawl, then stand and then walk.
I say look to the Baltic Dry Index for the lead to China.
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There are effectively five levels of local government in China; the province, prefecture, county, township, and village.
There have been calls to reduce the size of the provinces. The goal is to reduce administration and so doing reduce the amount of corruption as well as the number of government workers, in order to lower the budget.
Once China can form itself into a single workable unit instead of the fractured provinces it suffers now then it is likely to be "united we stand, no longer divided we fall". When that happens and I believe it will, we have a massive power house of dedicated workers with a winner's attidude focused on a single end.
Here are some Chinese proverbs. If you can read these and still think China has had its run..think again!
40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship
Some Chinese proverbs are literary while others humbly originated from families and commoners of Ancient China. I have filtered through a wealth of Chinese proverbs and selected 40 that are of special interest to entrepreneurs.
Below each proverb I offer a brief explanation of a how you can apply this ancient wisdom to your entrepreneurial aspirations.
Chinese Proverbs
1. “In every crisis, there is opportunity.”
Most entrepreneurial ventures arise from a solving a problem. If you are faced with a problem, craft a solution and sell that solution to others. As an interesting side note, it’s a common misconception that the word crisis and opportunity mean the same thing in the ancient Chinese language. This misconception initially gained momentum when John F. Kennedy incorrectly cited it in a speech in 1959. (source: smallbusiness411.org)
2. “Sow a thought, reap an action; sow an action, reap a habit; sow a habit, reap a character; sow a character, reap a destiny.”
Entrepreneurship starts with an idea and ends with a destiny. You craft your destiny with your actions, habits and character. You make your destiny, it doesn’t make you.
3. “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
Aside from 20 years ago, there is no better time to start a business than today.
4. “If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow people.”
The goal of every entrepreneur should be to start a business and find capable people to run the business so that they don’t have to.
5. “A bad workman blames his tools.”
A bad entrepreneur places blame on someone or something else when things go bad. First and foremost, you should hold yourself accountable for a negative outcome of your business.
6. “A closed mind is like a closed book; just a block of wood.”
As an entrepreneur you always have to be open to new opportunities. If you aren’t actively looking for new ways to make your business more innovative, you won’t be very successful as an entrepreneur.
7. “A fall into a ditch makes you wiser.”
When bad things happen, a good entrepreneur learns from them.
8. “A fly before his own eye is bigger than an elephant in the next field.”
When you focus only on the opportunities that are right in front of you, you might miss the larger ones that take effort to find.
9. “A jade stone is useless before it is processed; a man is good-for-nothing until he is educated.”
A strong education is often the foundation of a strong business. The more you know about entrepreneurship, the more equipped you will be to face its various challenges.
10. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
Every entrepreneur in the history of the world started their business with a single action.
11. “A person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the man doing it.”
As an entrepreneur, you will undoubtedly encounter people who will doubt you. Don’t let those people get in your way. Instead, use their doubt as motivation.
12. “A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.”
You can learn a lot from talking to experienced entrepreneurs. They have been through the process and can teach you more than most any book.
13. “All cats love fish but fear to wet their paws.”
All people love to make money but few people pursue entrepreneurship because it’s full of challenges and uncomfortable risks.
14. “Cheap things are not good, good things are not cheap.”
As a small business owner, always focus on providing quality.
15. “Customers are jade; merchandise is grass.”
What good is a business without customers? You should value your customers more than any other aspect of your business.
16. “Defeat isn’t bitter if you don’t swallow it.”
You will encounter setbacks, but don’t let those setbacks defeat you.
17. “Defer not till to-morrow what may be done to-day.”
One of the most challenging things for an entrepreneur is simply getting things done. According to numerous entrepreneurs I have spoken with, procrastination is one of the largest causes of failure in new businesses.
18. “Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched.”
Though a good entrepreneur isn’t afraid to take risks, never rely too heavily on projections of profitability, success in a certain market, etc. A good entrepreneur always considers, and has a plan for, the worst-case scenario.
19. “Don’t stand by the water and long for fish; go home and weave a net.”
Instead of complaining about how you aren’t making much money, find new ways to earn it.
20. “Easy to run downhill, much puffing to run up.”
It’s easy to run a business when the going is good, but the true test of an entrepreneur is how he or she behaves when faced with challenges. As the current economic climate makes overwhelmingly clear, every market has its ups and downs.
21. “Failing to plan is planning to fail.”
This one is so clear, it requires no explanation.
22. “Falling hurts least those who fly low.”
The less amount of money you spend, the less it will hurt if your business fails. It’s common for entrepreneurs to bootstrap the initial costs of their business. Bootstrapping means doing whatever you can to spend as little as possible.
23. “If a thing’s worth doing, it’s worth doing well.”
If you’re going to put effort into starting a business, then make sure you put 100% effort into every aspect of your business.
24. “If you get up one more time than you fall you will make it through.”
When you get knocked down, get back up. If you don’t get back up, your business will fail.
25. “If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.”
When you get to the point of hiring employees; the more you pay, the higher quality effort you will receive.
26. “It’s as difficult to be rich without bragging as it is to be poor without complaining.”
As an entrepreneur, it’s important to remain humble, especially when you’re rich. Humility is difficult to maintain when things are going well.
27. “Learning is a treasure that will follow its owner everywhere.”
Learn from your business and it’s something you will never lose.
28. “Make happy those who are near, and those who are far will come.”
If you make your customers happy, they will talk and those they talk to may become new customers.
29. “Patience is a virtue.”
Having patience with your business is essential to your success. Very few businesses are profitable in their first year.
30. “Rich not gaudy.”
When you become rich, don’t become gaudy, or tastelessly flashy.
31. “Teachers open the door. You enter by yourself.”
Being taught something will only get you so far. You must independently apply that learning to become successful.
32. “The diamond cannot be polished without friction, nor the man perfected without trials.”
You will encounter trials and tribulations as a business owner, but these trials and tribulations will mold you into a better entrepreneur.
33. “The emperor is rich, but he cannot buy one extra year.”
Your business and the money it generates are not the most important things in your life.
34. “The loftiest towers rise from the ground.”
Even the most successful businesses in the world started with the conception and implementation of an idea.
35. “The palest ink is better than the best memory.”
When you conceive an idea on how to improve your business, write it down!
36. “There are two perfectly good men, one dead, and the other unborn.”
No one is perfect. Always be open to learning from other people.
37. “To open a shop is easy, to keep it open is an art.”
Starting a business is simple in comparison to keeping it.
38. “We all like lamb; each has a different way of cooking it.”
Entrepreneurship is like an art: there is not always a right and wrong way of pursuing your business goals. Let your personal taste and style as an entrepreneur be your strength.
39. “Who is not satisfied with himself will grow; who is not sure of his own correctness will learn many things.”
Rememer you don’t know everything. Actively seek out advice and information, and you will learn.
40. “A smile will gain you ten more years of life.”
What’s the point in owning a business if you’re not having fun with it? If your business doesn’t make you smile, then it’s the wrong business for you.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Agree that this is very handy as China is responsible for a heck of allot of sea freight, in and out.
Baltic Dry Index....
It needs some love Ann...
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Agree that this is very handy as China is responsible for a heck of allot of sea freight, in and out.
Baltic Dry Index....
It needs some love Ann...
It most certainly does CanOz and I watch it lovingly every week side by side with the Shanghai Composite which is almost step by step at the moment with the BDI.
Hi Ann,
I agree with your comments re the amalgamation of governments. If/when this happens, it will be very good for the economy. The Chinese economy has a lot of things going for it but by no means is it in it's infancy. You don't get that after a couple of decades of double digit growth.
Moreover it is in need of structural reform. Until this point it was a export and local infrastructure building based economy, both of which have changed. Exports are being challenged by other countries and they have already mis allocated a lot of the GDP into underutilized infrastructure (see the latest 60 minutes video) projects. Even local entrepreneurs are calling a housing bubble; as yet unheard of.
As for the BDI, current increses can just as easily be attributed to QE in Japan, the worlds third largest economy. It s however still a magnitude lower than at it's peaks...like CanOz said, needs love...
Speaking of proverbs,
"Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly"
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40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship
1 capitalist word for China - debt
First the facts - while growth in the first quarter cooled to 7.7 per cent from 8.1 per cent a year ago, this was achieved in part courtesy of a 58 per cent bump in aggregate credit. On that basis, every dollar borrowed in China is now producing only 60 per cent of the growth it would have generated a year ago.
The strong implication is that loans aren't being repaid but are being rolled into new loans, a classic credit bubble sign.
New research from the banking giant Societe Generale estimates that Chinese companies have debts that are 1.5 times the size of the nation's annual economic output.
Even worse, in a situation similar to a Ponzi scheme, up to a third of these companies are borrowing more money just to pay the interest on existing debts.
Estimates are that China's provinces, cities, regions and villages owe a collective $US3 trillion.
China’s government debt is taking up a greater portion of the national GDP but not yet worrisome, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. China’s government debt is now 50% of GDP, up from 40% in 2012 and 37.8% in 2011.
1 capitalist word for China - debt
First the facts - while growth in the first quarter cooled to 7.7 per cent from 8.1 per cent a year ago, this was achieved in part courtesy of a 58 per cent bump in aggregate credit. On that basis, every dollar borrowed in China is now producing only 60 per cent of the growth it would have generated a year ago.
The strong implication is that loans aren't being repaid but are being rolled into new loans, a classic credit bubble sign.
New research from the banking giant Societe Generale estimates that Chinese companies have debts that are 1.5 times the size of the nation's annual economic output.
Even worse, in a situation similar to a Ponzi scheme, up to a third of these companies are borrowing more money just to pay the interest on existing debts.
Estimates are that China's provinces, cities, regions and villages owe a collective $US3 trillion.
China’s government debt is taking up a greater portion of the national GDP but not yet worrisome, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. China’s government debt is now 50% of GDP, up from 40% in 2012 and 37.8% in 2011.
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40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship
1 capitalist word for China - debt
The strong implication is that loans aren't being repaid but are being rolled into new loans, a classic credit bubble sign.
Uncle Festivus I am wondering if this debt is actually a growing yuen carry trade particularly now the Chinese government is allowing non-financial firms the right to issue dollar-denominated bonds. Just look at the coupon, not hard to work up a decent carry trade on this lot! http://em.cbonds.com/countries/China-bond Just a thought!
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Uncle Festivus I am wondering if this debt is actually a growing yuen carry trade particularly now the Chinese government is allowing non-financial firms the right to issue dollar-denominated bonds. Just look at the coupon, not hard to work up a decent carry trade on this lot! http://em.cbonds.com/countries/China-bond Just a thought!
It's all carry trades with global QE?
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Indeed. The filthy rich carry all the loot back to their caves while the filthy poor carry all the debt back to theirs.
Sounds fair....
explod
explod
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to the last two posts.A clear idea is in "Currency Wars" Rickards 2011
Learning and then accepting how corrupt the system is, is like learning a new language. Not able to be explained in a few words, in my view.
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This should end well.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/eu-hits-china-with-solar-panel-duties-in-dumping-dispute.html
Ramping up from Currency War to Trade War now?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/eu-hits-china-with-solar-panel-duties-in-dumping-dispute.html
Ramping up from Currency War to Trade War now?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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I still think its odd that selling solar panels below cost is a bad idea, Unviable long term sure, no matter who produces them. It can only be a good thing for renewable energy...
CanOz
Already has been a few high profile bond defaults in the solar sector with talks of bailouts.
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The problem is that the Chinese panels are starting to fail big time, but the companies have already gone out of business so no 25 year promise.
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1.“In every crisis, there is opportunity.”
2.“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
3.If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow people.”
4.“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
5 “A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.”
6. “Patience is a virtue.”
7. “A smile will gain you ten more years of life.”
Ann
Particularly I like above Chinese proverbs.
What I feel about emerging world is that their economy has slow down little bit when compare with their rapid growth period. There are stages in economic development in any country. No country will have growth or slow down almost every year. In some period some countries will have higher inflation, higher exchange rate, higher unemployment and slower growth. In some period they will have lower inflation higher growth and higher employment. China and other emerging world will wake up in the long run again. On the other hand some frontier countries are having higher growth rate now due to increased activities such as infrastructure development, foreign investment and increased industry base.
One thing we should not forget about population in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other frontier markets in Asia. Increased number of mouths in Asia in the future means more demand for meat, milk, corn, oil, rice, vegetable, fruits,spice commodities, tea, coffee, soft drinks from Asia in the coming decade. For example Asia pacific region will drink more tea than Middle East and Russia in the coming decade. Tea market will expand in the pacific region in the coming years. We can get some idea why do Starbuck want to do for tea what did they do for coffee. They are expanding their businesses countries such as India and China now.
Similarly there will be increased demand for coal, timber, rubber, palm oil, natural gas, oil, salt and other commodities etc from China and rest of the Asia due to increased economic activities in the long run.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions
2.“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
3.If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow people.”
4.“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
5 “A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.”
6. “Patience is a virtue.”
7. “A smile will gain you ten more years of life.”
Ann
Particularly I like above Chinese proverbs.
What I feel about emerging world is that their economy has slow down little bit when compare with their rapid growth period. There are stages in economic development in any country. No country will have growth or slow down almost every year. In some period some countries will have higher inflation, higher exchange rate, higher unemployment and slower growth. In some period they will have lower inflation higher growth and higher employment. China and other emerging world will wake up in the long run again. On the other hand some frontier countries are having higher growth rate now due to increased activities such as infrastructure development, foreign investment and increased industry base.
One thing we should not forget about population in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other frontier markets in Asia. Increased number of mouths in Asia in the future means more demand for meat, milk, corn, oil, rice, vegetable, fruits,spice commodities, tea, coffee, soft drinks from Asia in the coming decade. For example Asia pacific region will drink more tea than Middle East and Russia in the coming decade. Tea market will expand in the pacific region in the coming years. We can get some idea why do Starbuck want to do for tea what did they do for coffee. They are expanding their businesses countries such as India and China now.
Similarly there will be increased demand for coal, timber, rubber, palm oil, natural gas, oil, salt and other commodities etc from China and rest of the Asia due to increased economic activities in the long run.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions
+1
Some more so than others. Wouldn't call China a frontier economy.
At current trends the population of China is not going anywhere in a hurry. By most estimates, the Chinese population will be smaller in 2100 than today. The real frontier economies are those of Africa.
