End of the China bull?

[Uncle Festivus]

The world is recovering with no thanks to them, they put the breaks on when things were looking bleak to try to tip the world over the edge.

Um, no, they did the same as everybody else - they printed up some $800BILLION to stimulate. They have recently opened the taps again but it's only bought them 2 points (into expansion) on the latest HSBC manufacturing PMI data. Although the official PMI was worse-than-expectations at unchanged.

 

[notting]

Um, no, they did the same as everybody else - they printed up some $800BILLION to stimulate

No. That was during GFC part one. I'm talking about during more recent Euro crises and US impas . China put the breaks on as soon as they new they were OK for the moment.

 

[So_Cynical]

Ok so with the latest China data can we agree that a soft landing has been achieved and that the China Bull is ready to run again?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

No. That was during GFC part one. I'm talking about during more recent Euro crises and US impas . China put the breaks on as soon as they new they were OK for the moment.

I think they were trying to stop the bubbles bursting - they more than anyone have more to lose if the rest of the world stays in recession.

Ok so with the latest China data can we agree that a soft landing has been achieved and that the China Bull is ready to run again?

PMI was unchanged from previous month, barely breaking into expansion for the last 12 months - not much of start to a new bull? As long as they keep pumping the liquidity they may be able to keep the PMI and GDP from tanking...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A 'soft landing' based on even more dodgy debt, hidden write offs & a shadow financial system with massive amounts of underwater loans?

Xi and his team are inheriting an economy more leveraged than the one President Hu Jintao took over in 2003. Government, corporate and consumer debt rose last year by 15 percentage points to an estimated 206 percent of GDP, Standard Chartered said in a November report. In March 2003 it stood at 150 percent.

Borrowers are using some new loans to “plaster over non-performing credits” while so-called shadow banking is growing too fast, said economists led by Stephen Green. They estimated that a bad-loan ratio of 12 percent would erase the banking industry’s 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in capital.

Lending by so-called trust companies surged five times to 1.04 trillion yuan in the first 11 months compared with the whole of 2011. A “large part” of the sector’s lending is to higher-risk entities including local government investment vehicles and property developers that don’t have access to bank loans, the International Monetary Fund said in its Global Financial Stability Report in October.

‘Extremely Reluctant’

“Lots and lots of projects have been approved to stimulate this economy,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “The banks are extremely reluctant to lend to them and that says a lot about what they really know about credit risk in this country.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/china-poised-for-2013-rebound-as-debt-risks-rise-for-xi.html

 

[notting]

This is becomeing quite an interesting study in Anthropology or is it Sociapathology.



http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=835550

More Coal people.

We gonna be the biggest in just 5 years time according to state media.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Anyone who has ever been to China will tell you that the "bull" has a long way to go.

Industries, Communist officials, Provinces and Governors have their necks on it's continuance.

It is even a threat to the Communist Cadres at the top.

They cannot stop it.

They will be necked.

The genie is out.

gg

 

[notting]

Anyone who has ever been to China will tell you that the "bull" has a long way to go.

Industries, Communist officials, Provinces and Governors have their necks on it's continuance.

It is even a threat to the Communist Cadres at the top.

They cannot stop it.

They will be necked.

The genie is out.

gg

Yes. The progress is simply breathtaking!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yes. The progress is simply breathtaking!

+1

lol

gg

 

[CanOz]

Its particularly bad this year actually. We are living part time near Taiyuan, one of the worst cities. Luckily we live up in the mountains about 40 km north. The air quality here is very good, clear and fresh. The city is very bad though. From the aircraft it looks like a big brown cloud. Also, when we live down south at our home there, we live about 60 km outside Shanghai, so the air quality is much better. Occasionally we get an auto exhaust odor.

The worst is the north in Winter....but its the best in the summer. The communal heating is all coal fired. Its warm inside, but at a cost.

CanOz

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Its particularly bad this year actually. We are living part time near Taiyuan, one of the worst cities. Luckily we live up in the mountains about 40 km north. The air quality here is very good, clear and fresh. The city is very bad though. From the aircraft it looks like a big brown cloud. Also, when we live down south at our home there, we live about 60 km outside Shanghai, so the air quality is much better. Occasionally we get an auto exhaust odor.

The worst is the north in Winter....but its the best in the summer. The communal heating is all coal fired. Its warm inside, but at a cost.

CanOz

Tell that to the grandson or daughter of a peasant toiling and starving in a paddy field 50 years ago under Mao.

Memories are better for survivors.

It will continue imo.

gg

 

[CanOz]

Tell that to the grandson or daughter of a peasant toiling and starving in a paddy field 50 years ago under Mao.

Memories are better for survivors.

It will continue imo.

gg

What, you mean my wife?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

What, you mean my wife?

Let's keep em out of this argument, though a trumping point. On second thoughts, what of her take on it?

gg

 

[CanOz]

LOL...

 

[Trembling Hand]

China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization

 

[Uncle Festivus]

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n

 

[notting]

What the Chinese have tried to do up till now is create the illusion of a booming economy on the back of slavery and currency manipulation.
What they will try to do now is get the west to pay for the last leg of building China, that is, fund the lower end housing build.

China plans major bond market reform to raise the money the ruling Communist Party needs for a 40 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) urbanization program to buoy economic growth and close a chasm between the country's urban rich and rural poor.

"The focus should not just be on construction. They should also focus on creating a market," the diplomat said. "If they fail to create a market, they will end up with an urban poor much worse off than the rural poor."

The focus is on construction for a reason, they don't for a minute think they have to worry about a real economy or the people.
They can mow them down ala Tiananmen square or just start more international agitation to keep the peoples focus and anger on other countries.

I hope the west is not stupid enough to invest in the last leg of 'the plan.'

The Chinese figure that if this last leg is achieved, they will have built China, they will have also have built it's military and power in the world to attack when the illusion is seen through. That way they don't have to pay any international bills or continue to cooperate with international monetary policy and so forth they just do whatever they want which is unimaginably horrible - enslavement, torcher, environmental destruction, far more concentration camps than Nazi Germany - genocide. Examples – Turkistan, Uighur, Tibet. Look into the horrors and hells they have created there, even within their own original borders concentration camps full of dissecendent like the 20 million falun gong practitioners who were seen as a threat because they would not be corruptable.

China is actively gunning for Taiwan, Burma, Laos, Northern India, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Ryukyu Islands, 300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Taiwan, South Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Bahdashan, Transbaikalia and the Far East to South Okhotsk.
The Chinese have even been attacking US companies unabatedly all over the world and even started on US infrastructure with hacking attacks. This caused one of the first public rebukes from the US administration. They fell short of calling it an act of war. Because no one wants that not even China, yet. But really, what else is that?

 

[notting]

China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n

Jesse, wonder what the black swan just might be?
Ask an emerging minority Chinese real-estate owner - What happens to empty real estate? – blank stare.
They think it’s like buying gold bars.
What happens when elevator breaks? There’s no body corporate - dunno.
Maintenance? – dunno.
You’d wanna hope it weathers well, wouldn’t want it to be, hhmm lets see - made in China?
10.6 billion sq of property under development in China now on top of the existing mega ghost cities.
The majority of China bank debt is borrowed by developers and owners of that real estate.
It is something the world has never seen before.
It’s not a real estate bubble, it’s a real-estate fricken Hindenburg loaded with H bombs.
I tell you this, no one, but no one, should buy a Chinese bond when they are offered.

 

[notting]

It's probably not yet time to say I told you so.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100562024

What got me a little more concerned was that about a week ago the Chinese were saying they were going to abandon growth at all costs policy for more sustainable undertakings.

But the new premier Li Keqiang sounds like he has abandoned that idea already, saying, ' growth was the top priority for his government.'

 

[MR.]

Audio:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-...m-alarming-corporate/4726464?section=business