Elliott Wave and the XAO

[tech/a]

It's look for shorts or sell longs at close to wave 2 level
If wave 2 is taken out then re evaluate.

 

[tech/a]

XJO I KNOW BUT.

 

[Ves]

Does EW analysis have a relationship between time and wave targets? I just noticed that on the XJO weekly, the 5th wave looks like it could be the longest when measured in terms of time.

 

[tech/a]

There can be time components added to the analysis.
I dont use them.
The law of alternatives normally holds.
If Wave 2 is a simple correction then wave 4 will be complex.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave and wave 4 must not exceed wave 1
(Just some basics) if they do then the counts must alter to accommodate the conditions.

 

[joea]

Hi
On the other XAO thread was a mention of the 5th wave down(if there is one).

The EBOT may come into play if the top trend line rejects the price chart.
Anyway this is what the software is indicating (for what its worth.
joea

 

[joea]

Hi.
The XAO is attempting to push through the 144 MA plus a trend line.
We wait in anticipation?
joea

 

[whitefang]

Thanks for the last 2 posts.
I guess we may be getting (very) close to a resolve.
Wondering what would trigger a confirmation of wave 4 in place and w5 forming ...?
Maybe a total breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors....or maybe even some uninspiring profit results in the US...

cheers,

Hi.
The XAO is attempting to push through the 144 MA plus a trend line.
We wait in anticipation?
joea

 

[joea]

Thanks for the last 2 posts.
I guess we may be getting (very) close to a resolve.
Wondering what would trigger a confirmation of wave 4 in place and w5 forming ...?
Maybe a total breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors....or maybe even some uninspiring profit results in the US...

cheers,

whitefang
I think the elliott wave software can be tricked by the market on occasions.
The "wide spread" bar on the 9/8/2011 may have tricked the software.
If this bar was not as low, the software would give a different structure.
One would think something will give today.
On one hand the Dow is up 88, but on the other, the world bank is "bleating" gloom and doom. I think Angela Merkel is playing politics with the Euro, instead of helping solve the problems.
No wonder the traders are confused.
joea

 

[whitefang]

Joea,

I do agree that people should take the output of the software with a grain of salt. But it gives you something you can use as a basis.
I personally do not use such a software.
I do listen though to people that comment on EW, whether through their own lines drawn on charts or software output. It is an interesting angle.
My comment that (very) soon we may see a resolve is based on a few other observations (low VIX for a too long time, the symmetrical triangle looking for a breakout, etc ). It remains to see which way markets go.
I am a contrarian at heart, and seeing more people waiting for a "healthy" pullback makes me think that the market may go another leg up instead.

cheers,

whitefang
I think the elliott wave software can be tricked by the market on occasions.
The "wide spread" bar on the 9/8/2011 may have tricked the software.
If this bar was not as low, the software would give a different structure.
One would think something will give today.
joea

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Any Elliott wave chartists care to update their graphs and post here in light of recent developments?

I suspect this theory is about to come into its own about now?

Thanks in anticipation

 

[Sean K]

Any Elliott wave chartists care to update their graphs and post here in light of recent developments?

I suspect this theory is about to come into its own about now?

Thanks in anticipation

yes, good timing
.

 

[rimtas]

I just have found this thread so I'll be posting my charts here instead where I started there https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=471&highlight=xao
People with really good knowledge how to use EW can join this discussion, others please just read.


XAO is rising impulsively from the bottom and I am looking for wave (a) top to form soon, somewhere in a fib 50-61,8 range. There is still no any comfortable count for wave (a), which means it is not finished yet. Momentum at the bottom of chart shows no brakes or at least neutral gear is in the works for this rise which are usually applied by the markets when they get tired.
One observation is that this wave is really big in terms of price(but not time), leaving not much room for wave (c)(after setback). But that's a different story and markets will tell later what they think. I expect wave (b) will be the longest wave in this sequence, with wave (c) being a swift affair ending in a spike, or sporting an ED.
Not tradable at this stage.

 

[rimtas]

I don't know how to label ASX at this stage, but E-mini has quite a nice structure at the moment and if it turns, it would be from here.
However if it rises at least 30 more points, then new highs probably is at hand(after pulback).
What I am looking is a third wave, and all ellioticians know what it means, it is better not to be caught by it.







When looking at daily/weekly ASX recent rice looks too short in terms of time, and maybe even price, though as at today it already corrected back to the fib 61,8 level, where at least wave (a) could end.

 

[Porper]

I don't know how to label ASX at this stage, but E-mini has quite a nice structure at the moment and if it turns, it would be from here.
However if it rises at least 30 more points, then new highs probably is at hand(after pulback).
What I am looking is a third wave, and all ellioticians know what it means, it is better not to be caught by it.


View attachment 60072




When looking at daily/weekly ASX recent rice looks too short in terms of time, and maybe even price, though as at today it already corrected back to the fib 61,8 level, where at least wave (a) could end.

Your wave (c) is about 10x as long as wave (a)? As far as I am concerned the XJO chart is a mess from an Elliott Wave point of view. Best using other technical analysis; or waiting for the patterns to get back into sync.

 

[rimtas]

Looks like XAO has a countable structure at this stage. I think this is the last chance for the market to prove the bearish count, because it has already corrected more than 70% of the previous drop, and most importantly- in three waves.
It must not rise above 5517 for this count to stay in operation, and furthermore-it must create a massive kick-off to the downside catching everyone by surprise.






But to be frank, I already doubt this bearish scenario, because some heavyweight stocks like TLS, WES, CBA has already risen in 5 waves from the bottom, not to mention REIT sector, which has fallen only in three waves , not confirming ASX previous drop.

If ASX rise further, It will sport a (v) wave from the 12 Oct bottom, and this just can't be wave (a) of the bearish count because it doesn't leave a room for wave (c).

This means that a five wave Aug-Oct drop is a terminal wave of a larger 3-3-5 sideways correction, and this will even change the whole count from 2009 bottom, which implies a further bull market.

So basically the next few sessions market will decide what it wants to do-stay in bull, or start a larger bear.
I am in cash at the moment, waiting how things will play out.

 

[Porper]

Looks like XAO has a countable structure at this stage. I think this is the last chance for the market to prove the bearish count, because it has already corrected more than 70% of the previous drop, and most importantly- in three waves.

I think it's important to admit when you are wrong. Don't get like Prechter and stick with your previous predictions just for your ego.

I see you have changed waves (a) & (b) slightly but wave (c) still shows no symmetry with prior waves. That count is not correct i.m.o. However you are entitled to stick to your guns. That count will be invalidated soon.

 

[rimtas]

I think it's important to admit when you are wrong..

I am wrong only then when I have to realize a loss. When I sell shares with a profit-this means my counts are perfect. I do not remember when I have had a sizeable loss, to be frank.

Since I implemented EW into my trading as the only decision making tool, losses got very small, and very rare. So it doesn't matter which count is correct, which is wrong, what people are thinking about them and what comment they are making after the fact.

The only thing what matters is that regardless to which count you stick to as long as it makes money for you consider it correct. Currently I am in cash, this means that I do not see any count that I can put my money upon it with confidence. That's why you see two charts, not one.

By the way, I do not see yours, mate.

 

[Porper]

I am wrong only then when I have to realize a loss. When I sell shares with a profit-this means my counts are perfect. I do not remember when I have had a sizeable loss, to be frank.

The thread is called "Elliott Wave and the XAO". It has nothing to do with your losses. All about the wave structures. To say you make perfect counts is a joke. Nobody does.

Since I implemented EW into my trading as the only decision making tool, losses got very small, and very rare.

I don't know any traders or investors that make consistent profits using the Wave Theory as a standalone method. I have seen many try - including myself. There are too many other factors that have an influence...volume, time etc. to name a few. You make it sound like you have found the Holy Grail. You haven't.

 

[rimtas]

I don't know any traders or investors that make consistent profits using the Wave Theory as a standalone method..

Say hello to rimtas and you will know one.
I tried everything-news, fundamentals, volume, breakouts, ema's and many other stuff-never was loosing money so fast by using them.

Standalone EW is working like a clock. You put your money in the market when it reaches the point of "no other counts possible". It is the main rule trading EW. Most of the time there are alternates, but in rare moments they exist only with a 1 chance out of 100.

You can check the NAB thread where I mde a call and put almost half million bucks on it. Didn't lost a dime on it-it was a short term perfect count and entry, using a standalone EW. That's how I trade, 5 to 10 trades per year, waiting for the perfect setup, no losses. You can call it Holy Grail, I call it patience and and strict MM.

I see you are more a teoretic than trader, but then I don't get the point why use something that you can't nail till the end. No offence mate.

 

[Porper]

That's how I trade, 5 to 10 trades per year, waiting for the perfect setup, no losses. You can call it Holy Grail, I call it patience and and strict MM.

I will leave you to it. You obviously aren't a serious trader or investor. You are just on an ego trip. Good luck if it makes you feel good about yourself. My last post on the subject.