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Aha, interesting, thanks for that.
Elliott Wave and the XAO
- Thread starter OzWaveGuy
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Aha, interesting, thanks for that.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Yes looks very much around the money
Thanks tech/a
I was interested in a comment for comparison. Its hard to compare software otherwise.
joea
tech/a
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Counts will differ from algorithm to algorithm.---person to person to if
done manually.
But although the count maybe slightly different the main
focus (at this point until proven invalid) is that we are in a wave 4
with a wave 5 down to follow.
No need to rush in on those bargains.
done manually.
But although the count maybe slightly different the main
focus (at this point until proven invalid) is that we are in a wave 4
with a wave 5 down to follow.
No need to rush in on those bargains.
tech/a
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Well its pretty well hit the mark on the down side and now at the top (Possibly) of Wave 4, which is expected now to turn down and complete wave 5.
I expect this to be a slower fall.
Where's Kenna's
Elliott appears to be around the mark in this unfolding story!
I expect this to be a slower fall.
Where's Kenna's
Elliott appears to be around the mark in this unfolding story!
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It closed the gap today with around 10 points overlap...
Previous post with gap - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=651815&viewfull=1#post651815
Behaviour after that is what often seems to happen in these situations.
I personally need to see a break below yesterdays low (~ 4255) before I am convinced which way next, having said that though, this arvo's action was definitely leaning to the downside.
If and when the down leg starts we need to wait until we see a day or two of upside within that leg down before we can narrow down reasonable downside target.
At the moment (assuming it does turn down) we are looking between 3873 and 3580 as a broad target area based on today's high being the turning point.
(click to expand - chart data at 15/08/11)
Previous post with gap - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=651815&viewfull=1#post651815
Behaviour after that is what often seems to happen in these situations.
I personally need to see a break below yesterdays low (~ 4255) before I am convinced which way next, having said that though, this arvo's action was definitely leaning to the downside.
If and when the down leg starts we need to wait until we see a day or two of upside within that leg down before we can narrow down reasonable downside target.
At the moment (assuming it does turn down) we are looking between 3873 and 3580 as a broad target area based on today's high being the turning point.
(click to expand - chart data at 15/08/11)
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Hi guys,
I am quite new to this forum, but I have been watching with great interest a few threads. A lot of great contributions, thank you guys. I pay attention to TA, as it gives me projections and levels to watch. With regard to EW, I think I understand the high-level principles but still trying to make sense of them, he, he...
Right now people seem to be waiting for w4 to finish and confirmed with a w5 leg down.
We seem to be close (50 points or so) to 0.382 or 0.5 retracement (depending on whether you consider the closing or intraday low). I imagine to higher we go, the less likely is that w5 eventuates. Is this right in the EW world ?
Also, technically, I believe we may reach a point of invalidation, in the 4500'ish area. Not that long to go...
Would it be possible that this is an ABC correction (similar to what we had in March, when also there was a tendency to wait for w4 and w5...until the market invalidated w4...) ?
See also this article...
http://www.minyanville.com/business...r-market-stock-market-bull/8/17/2011/id/36394
Fundamentally there is risk to the downside, but with so many bears out there, I am wondering whether the risk is not to the upside...
cheers,
I am quite new to this forum, but I have been watching with great interest a few threads. A lot of great contributions, thank you guys. I pay attention to TA, as it gives me projections and levels to watch. With regard to EW, I think I understand the high-level principles but still trying to make sense of them, he, he...
Right now people seem to be waiting for w4 to finish and confirmed with a w5 leg down.
We seem to be close (50 points or so) to 0.382 or 0.5 retracement (depending on whether you consider the closing or intraday low). I imagine to higher we go, the less likely is that w5 eventuates. Is this right in the EW world ?
Also, technically, I believe we may reach a point of invalidation, in the 4500'ish area. Not that long to go...
Would it be possible that this is an ABC correction (similar to what we had in March, when also there was a tendency to wait for w4 and w5...until the market invalidated w4...) ?
See also this article...
http://www.minyanville.com/business...r-market-stock-market-bull/8/17/2011/id/36394
Fundamentally there is risk to the downside, but with so many bears out there, I am wondering whether the risk is not to the upside...
cheers,
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This is my view of where the market is at now.
Until the XAO can get back above 4500 the overall tendency is towards the negative with a potential downside target area highlighted.
Whichever direction it breaks (closes) out of the 0.382 to 0.618 retracement area should be an indication of the overall strength or weakness.
Just my
(click to expand)
Until the XAO can get back above 4500 the overall tendency is towards the negative with a potential downside target area highlighted.
Whichever direction it breaks (closes) out of the 0.382 to 0.618 retracement area should be an indication of the overall strength or weakness.
Just my
(click to expand)
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This is my view of where the market is at now.
Until the XAO can get back above 4500 the overall tendency is towards the negative with a potential downside target area highlighted.
Whichever direction it breaks (closes) out of the 0.382 to 0.618 retracement area should be an indication of the overall strength or weakness.
Just my
(click to expand)
Thanks for this.
With Fed's neutral stance, there is a good chance we will be range bound for another month, trapped between the 0.382 and 0.618. It also depends on how new data in US comes out. And Germany' vote (which I see as the biggest event to watch).
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The market is moving sideways towards the indicated trendline. This could be interpreted as a complex wave (4). We see alternation between the simple Flat at wave (2) and the complex zigzag of wave (4) - which still needs confirmation. There should be resistance at the top trendline and the horizontal support/resistance line at 4450-4500. This should be telling. The market will either pierce through or turn down. The latter is the more likely scenario, I think.
tech/a
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Agreed
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Today's break of the recent low at 4083 is another small step in the overall direction towards the target areas.
It will probably hover around or above the theoretical support of 4000 before it resumes the overall trend down.
I am still of the opinion that around 3600 is a likely target area.
(click to expand)
It will probably hover around or above the theoretical support of 4000 before it resumes the overall trend down.
I am still of the opinion that around 3600 is a likely target area.
(click to expand)
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Nice dip today to within 6 points of the min W.5 target area (0.382% = 3951.68), now heading back to a comfort zone of nice round numbers around 4000 for a while.
(click to expand)
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tech/a
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Haven' posted up charts for a while as nothing much has altered.
Here is an update.
Frankly I see this starting to pull up.
As has been for sometime the first heavy line is critical to the validity of this count.
Here is an update.
Frankly I see this starting to pull up.
As has been for sometime the first heavy line is critical to the validity of this count.
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How likely would it be for Aus to de-couple from US and start trending higher while US continues down? Has this ever happened for a significant amount of time?
Thanks Tech -- valuable stuff.
Sean K
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Sorry Tech. Been busy saving mankind.
The unfolding story is still that we hit a W3 around 3800 and then have maybe hit a W4 around 4400 and heading down to a W5 right? That wasn't it at 4900 ish?
Personally, without looking at a chart, I think the world is toast and if there is a QE3 without meaningful regulatory reform we will be nuked! Maybe that's just part of the waves however.
tech/a
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Kennas
Until price action either plays out the wave 5 or negates the current count then we are still in the count we had for weeks now.
So to invalidate the count we need price above wave2
Or to complete wave 5 below or = wave 3
Until price action either plays out the wave 5 or negates the current count then we are still in the count we had for weeks now.
So to invalidate the count we need price above wave2
Or to complete wave 5 below or = wave 3
Sean K
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Yep, I see that. As I said above I think.
You have said before that EW allows you to see where we are in the general trend of the market in order to make specific trading decisions.
This is a hold until it plays out? Or, is it switch from short to long if it breaks up, or vicky versa?
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