Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Electricity: price and reliability of supply

Jump to new
Something I should have added is that whilst AGL don't seem to have the ability to do the repair themselves, they've done brilliantly so far as having spares on hand is concerned.

Pretty much nobody keeps a complete spare stator on hand at a power station but for whatever reason AGL decided to do so and that approach has turned out to have been a good move although faults of that nature are pretty rare.

So whilst it's headed to Germany to be fixed it could certainly be said that AGL were well prepared in this instance.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Something I should have added is that whilst AGL don't seem to have the ability to do the repair themselves, they've done brilliantly so far as having spares on hand is concerned.

Pretty much nobody keeps a complete spare stator on hand at a power station but for whatever reason AGL decided to do so and that approach has turned out to have been a good move although faults of that nature are pretty rare.

So whilst it's headed to Germany to be fixed it could certainly be said that AGL were well prepared in this instance.
Click to expand...

Is exporting these things for repairs a recent practise or has it been going on for a while ?
 
Two major things just happened in terms of announcements:

1. In Tasmania the Liberal party has for practical purposes rejected the notion that a free market is the way to go. Yes you read correctly. Bear in mind in that context that Tasmania is about to have a state election.

In an ideological sense the Liberal policy is a "go it alone" approach on the basis that the competitive National Electricity Market is producing prices that are too high and which a state owned monopoly could very easily beat.

In a practical sense that means nothing physically changes but administratively Tasmania would exempt itself from the market so far as supply within the state is concerned. So still a participant in the National Electricity Market in a physical sense but "building a wall" in order to prevent Victorian prices flowing through to Tasmanian consumers. That's an administrative arrangement not a physical one and is essentially a rejection of the notion that there ought to be a free market.

This could get interesting and I say that more from a political perspective than an electrical one. I never thought I'd see the Liberals advocating the merits of state run monopolies over free markets but it just happened.

2. Then there's SA's plan with batteries on homes. That's a Labor plan bearing in mind that SA is also having an election.

Like most I'm a tad confused as to exactly where the money's coming from and how it all adds up so I'll reserve comment until I have the facts there. One thing's very clear though - the SA government has effectively found a way to get someone else to compete against not only generators and retailers but to be a partial competitor against the networks as well (since that's exactly what having a battery represents - lower volumes sent over the network). The "monopoly" nature of the networks doesn't look like as much of a monopoly as it did a few days ago.

So whilst I'm a bit unsure exactly where the $ are going, overall SA seems to be going down the track of government doing whatever it takes to bring new (priavely owned) entrants to the market in order to increase supply and push down prices. They're also very visibly going down a "high tech" track with it all.

Overall the Tas and SA approaches are very different but along with Qld's they have something in common. All are exerting a degree of control over the National Electricity Market due to perceived unacceptable outcomes involving price and reliability. That leaves NSW and Vic as the only places with a "free" market as such.

The (mostly privately owned) participants in the National Electricity Market are effectively "on notice" that the states will not accept market outcomes which involve high prices or lack of reliability. Looking forward, I do wonder how keen some of them will be to remain involved with this industry? Gut feel tells me that there's going to be some who want out.:2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Gut feel tells me that there's going to be some who want out.:2twocents
Click to expand...

Of course if governments re-enter the market and in effect supply subsidised power then it makes it less attractive for profit making concerns, but maybe it's an opportunity for State or Federal governments to buy back some cheap assets, if they are still worth buying that is.

Yes we should see this in the light of elections. NSW hasn't said anything because they still have two years to run, but I hope that they eventually see sense.
 
Logique said:
50k homes X $15k each? $750Mill? Elon is a generous man.
Click to expand...

It sounds as though he gets $30million up front to start the roll out, then the system is supposed to become self supporting by giving up the excess generation to be on sold.
Sounds like magic to me, but it will get the batteries installed, then they just have to address the supply charge.
It will be interesting to see how much it finally costs the taxpayer, but S.A has to do something, they have put themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Next I suppose they will be hoping for home owners, to get a dose of FOMO, then offer them a sweetheart deal to buy solar/ battery installations.
Not a bad idea really, saves the Government having to install more reserve capacity and pay for replacement/upkeep as it ages.
Eventually I suppose they will introduce it into the building codes, same as thermal efficiency, oh well here we go user pays.lol
 
Back on topic, Labor's pledge, should they come into office, is to go back to the NEG.
Presently there is no actual energy policy in place for electricity, but instead a plan to reduce the price to consumers. To underpin this the Coalition was to implement the Retailer Reliability Obligation. The Energy Security Board sought submissions on the proposal, so I have linked one here.

Elsewhere over recent days there has been talk on which threads in the General Chat area contribute value to a stock market forum. Many could do with better contributions that suggest a link back to effects on market behaviour. Some won't get close. While I chose to link to only one specific contributor - AGL - you can see here that electricity supply and costs significantly affect many of our bigger players in the stock market, and that they are keen improve what was being proposed.
 
Cont'd from here.
Due to a major storm/tornados last week, we have been seriously affected due to seven (7) transmission towers all downed by that storm system.
Power was off for the whole of the Far West of NSW.
Then when the power was finally restored, on Monday arvo into Tues evening this week, we had 27 hours straight of no power in the Far West of NSW when the one and only, working backup generator tripped and failed.

Apparently the other backup generator has been down since Nov 2023! However, this has been disputed by TransGrid/Essential Energy.

Rolling outages continue with the NSW premier declaring a Electricty Supply Emergency and IPART starting an investigation.

Anyone got a spare genset?
 
Via SMS here's one of the latest from Essential Energy Updates.

To ensure the power system remains stable and to protect the generator providing power supply to Broken Hill, we are asking customers with solar panels to switch off the solar main supply switch, if they know how to do so safely. Thank you for your support.
Click to expand...

Yes, this does apply to me and yes I know how to switch the solar off. Guess I'll have to oblige.

Thing is, the cynic in me reckons that the affected infrastructure has not being maintained to an acceptable standard.
Especially with the Hydrostor clean energy project expected to come online... eventually and hence, the 2nd backup generator was not maintained or operational. Thanks a bunch bean counters.

The proposed Center will discharge 1,600 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity, capable of delivering 8+ hours of energy delivery on a full charge
Click to expand...
I suppose eight hrs is better than none!

With regards to conflicting reports about the 2nd generator being offline since Nov 2023 and Essential Energy having stated that the generator was taken offline for service maintenance in Sept 2024.

So how long would/should the maintenance have taken to complete?
Surely this important piece of critical infrastucture must have been subject to very strict and extremely limited downtime parameters.
Hopefully the IPART inquiry will answer these questions and more.

Again the cynic in me reckons that the cost of repairing said infrastucture will be passed onto we, the customers.

On the plus side, at least we're not in a war zone!
 
Craton said:
Surely this important piece of critical infrastucture must have been subject to very strict and extremely limited downtime parameters.
Click to expand...
The real story here is the legal, contractual etc has dominated over the physical to the detriment of the community. Take enough steps back and that's what's happened.

If the community wants the power system to work then fundamentally it needs to be run as just that, a system. As soon as you get siloed approaches, that's when it goes to crap and that has indeed happened here.

In a more practical sense, it's what happens when the owner of the two gas turbines isn't allowed to operate them under normal circumstances for electricity supply, them being reserved for backup use only. A situation that sounds fine to legal or accounting people sitting in offices but which no tradie would ever say is a good idea, and nor would any decent engineer. Because it's just asking for trouble when they finally do get used.

That they're 43 years old and somewhat neglected doesn't help. But see above for why that's the case.

My view isn't for nationalisation but it most certainly is for placing priority on the technical side. Regardless of who owns what, and at BH that's somewhat involved with the transmission separate from distribution, then there's the battery, wind farm and the solar farm, it needs to be working as one system both the equipment and in terms of workers and so on. Engineering, not law or finance, needs to call the shots there if the aim is to keep the lights on.

That's a long way of pointing out there's been a major lack of co-operation due to different owners, regulations and legal pedantry. Not helped by certain government policies at the consumer end too, most notably the reduction in controlled loads.

As a bit of trivia regarding the two gas turbines, they're 2 of the 12 purchased in 1981 and installed at 4 sites in NSW for bulk supply. 2 were in Sydney, 2 at Port Kembla, 4 very close to the then still under construction Eraring power station, 4 at Koolkhan (near Grafton).

A few years later the Sydney and Port Kembla sites were removed. Two machines went to Liddell power station for black start purposes, and the other two went to Broken Hill and are the machines being discussed at present. The other 8 ended up being sold off - no idea where they ended up but they're not on the grid in Australia, meanwhile the two that went to Liddell have since been permanently closed to be scrapped.

Incidentally the sites at Koolkhan and near Eraring have never really been cleared. The generators were removed but it's still very obvious where they were.

Here's the Koolkhan site, which looks to now have some unrelated business using part of it but the big fuel tanks are still there: https://www.google.com/maps/@-29.61...try=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAyMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

And here's the Eraring site which has the fuel tanks still there, plus random objects, probably in some way relating to either Eraring power station or the coal mines, stored where the generators were:

www.google.com

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.
www.google.com www.google.com

Both are somewhat rare examples of long abandoned industrial or power generation sites that are still sufficiently intact to see what was where. Most others, which were actually more significant when they were running, end up demolished pretty quickly.
 
Last edited:
Thanks for chiming in @Smurf1976, much appreciate your expert input especially the historical notes.

It's been reported that the two generators use diesel. Perhaps the reported gas turbines was historical data too.

As you correctly point out, the disconnect between the license/contractual and the technical/physical coupled with the lack of integration with the wind, solar and battery (thanks for reminding me of AGL's BESS) technologies, clearly illustrates the issues with privatisation and the technical problems with govts. focus/fast rollout on going "green".

As per your reminder, a looksee on the AGL BESS site has shed some light on this.
AGL has a proud history in Broken Hill, having developed one of Australia’s largest utility-scale solar plants in 2016 and the Silverton Wind Farm in 2018 with a combined capacity of over 250 MW, together powering around 158,000 average Australian homes.
Click to expand...
I can echo that many of us can't quite fathom why the "green farms" haven't been able to supply power when most needed.

Apparently the BESS restarted yesterday as per WattClarity.

Broken Hill BESS restarts operations (cautiously), on Saturday 26th October 2024 ​

Click to expand...

Regarding the "green" technologies here locally, a great article as reported on the Renew Economy site and reads in part: -
The fact that the wind farm and the solar farm aren’t operating with the transmission line is understandable. But the big battery is supposed to be – and that could in turn have allowed the wind and solar to produce. No one is saying what’s gone wrong, but many suspect it’s a matter of oversight rather than technology.

“You need to talk to Transgrid,” said one. “You should talk to Essential,” says another. “Ah, that’s AGL’s asset, you better talk to them.” And then. “No, Tilt Renewables own those. Give them a ring.” And finally, “we don’t have an official statement now, but we are trying to sort it.”

Just to be clear, Transgrid is the operator of the transmission network, which owns the towers that were destroyed by the storms and also has responsibility for the diesel generators that are supposed to provide back-up power in such an event.

Essential Energy is the operator of the distribution, or, local, electricity network, while the battery is owned by AGL, and the wind and solar farms by Tilt Renewables, which is partly owned by AGL.
Click to expand...
I personally had a chuckle at this observation.
It is going to be a regulator’s delight getting to the bottom of what happened and why, and who did or didn’t do what, and what was or wasn’t in good working order and capable of doing the things they were supposed to do.
Click to expand...
A "delight" indeed!
What a quagmire, moreso when IP (Fluence) agreements can't be reached.

Anyway, from what's been reported today, no outages or load shedding overnight. Going forward, hopefully the transistion back to the repaired system will be a non-event.
 
Craton said:
It's been reported that the two generators use diesel. Perhaps the reported gas turbines was historical data too.
Click to expand...
They're diesel-fired gas turbines. :)

The term "gas turbine" is actually a reference to how it works not to the fuel used, although often confused given natural gas is the most common fuel for them.

It's entirely possible however to run them on any flammable liquid as long as it's at least moderately volatile and free of solids. Diesel isn't the optimum there, kerosene would be better, but diesel has the advantage of being relatively cheap with a major existing supply chain and it's good enough.

Can also set them up for dual fuel eg gas and diesel and quite a few examples of that do exist. Eg the Snapper Point, Bolivar and Hallett gas turbines facilities in SA all have dual fuel capability, can run either gas or diesel.

In a technical sense a gas turbine is essentially a jet aircraft engine sitting on the ground spinning an alternator to produce electricity. Some of them are directly derived from aircraft engine designs simply modified to be on the ground generating electricity, others are standalone designs optimised for power generation and not intended or certified for any aviation use, but fundamentally it's the same technology involved.

Key advantages of gas turbines:

Relatively low capital cost.

Minimal staffing requirement, indeed many sites do run unattended except during maintenance or fuel delivery, can all be operated remotely.

Fairly quick start up and shut down, though not as good as hydro, internal combustion or batteries.

Key disadvantages:

High fuel costs compared to other means of electricity generation.

Requires the use of premium resources (eg gas, diesel) versus steam plant using anything that'll burn. Or renewables / nuclear that aren't burning fuel at all.

The vertical blast of hot air discharged is a known hazard to low flying aircraft, requiring consideration of site locations to avoid anywhere that might occur.

Looking at this one in SA: https://www.google.com/maps/@-34.847972,138.5823242,3a,75y,309.36h,97.44t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sR8m0hsOr_AndvZhoRVNW4Q!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?authuser=0&coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAyMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

What you see there is three air intakes on one side and three exhaust stacks on the other side. Inside there are simply three gas turbines each driving a separate alternator. Fuel is gas hence no fuel tanks and the rest outside is just conventional transformers and so on.

Noting that's an old facility and if built today the modern approach does away with the shed. That is, it all just stays outside. Like this: https://www.google.com/maps/@-34.7638547,138.5068849,174m/data=!3m1!1e3?authuser=0&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTAyMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

What you see there is 5 separate gas turbine generators sitting on the ground outside. That's the permanent installation, there's no shed apart from a small one providing facilities for humans but the machines themselves are out in the open. This site is dual fuel, gas and diesel. :2twocents
 
Craton said:
I can echo that many of us can't quite fathom why the "green farms" haven't been able to supply power when most needed.
Click to expand...
It's the kind of stuff that back in ye olden days those on ground, the tradies along with office-based engineers, would already have known exactly what was possible and would've just gone and done it. Their reasoning being that an imperfect supply beats no supply, so as long as it's safe then do it. Make the best use of what's available.

In the modern era however the regulators, finance and legal people say no. All asses must be covered, every cent accounted for, all ideologies respected and so on. Their reasoning being that if it can't be done perfectly "by the book" then it can't be done at all.

It's not a failing of the technology, it's a failing of humans. Or to be more specific, it's what happens when rigid adherence to "legal" type thinking and political ideology takes precedence over physics and doing the best that can be done for the community. Or in practical terms, it's a thought process that says it's better to have everyone in the dark but be compliant with the rules as written than to put the power back on but insecurely, thus exposing everyone legally in the event it fails again. :2twocents
 
Brilliant replies again, thanks for your time on doing so @Smurf1976

The jargon doesn't always translate but understand your excellent diesel/gas turbine explanation.

Legalese dominates our every norm.
Me thinks a lot of times to the detriment of common sense and the common good.

Am awaiting the results the "investigations" but I would not be surprised if it all gets bogged down with finger pointing, buck passing, legal precedents and arguments etc...

Update and good news of sorts.

With most remote communities now "islanded" there's been little to no power disruptions that I'm aware of. The lights do flicker from time to time but no blackouts.

Temporary towers erected with one of the seven downed towers having been repaired/replaced. Latest ETR is 6 Nov.
I must mention that retail customers will be receiving a $200 credit to their electricity account. Businesses with receive $400. Better than a punch in the nose I suppose...

There's also other assistance with Mental Health, food hampers and the like.

Insurers will be waiving the Excess fee on claims thanks to the Natural Disaster/Electrical Emergency classification.

Plus, and this is a big plus, temps have been relatively mild so no big demand for heating or cooling.
Although temps are forecasted to increase over the coming w/end with wind speeds up to 50kph on Sunday. We're also moving into our storm weather months so we're not out of the woods by any stretch.
 
A tad more on GT (gas turbine, see my bolds below) and BESS from Renew Economy. The shocker being the anti-islanding (my italics in larger font below) of the big battery.

Article reads in part:

The Broken Hill big battery has finally been charged up, helping to bring stability to the local electricity supply and create a more resilient local micro-grid – but the question remains about why the facility was disabled in the first place.


As Renew Economy reported on Friday, the 50 MW, 50 MWh battery had not operated since the Broken Hill region was isolated from the rest of the grid after storms tore down seven transmission towers just after midnight on July 17.

Transmission company Transgrid said on Saturday that it had finally reached agreement with the battery owner AGL for the asset to be switched, 10 days after thousands of homes and business in the local community had started to suffer extensive outages.

On Saturday and Sunday, the battery charged up from the local excess rooftop solar and was standing by to help during the evening demand peaks, and will continue to do so until all the replacement towers are completed on about November 6.

“AGL’s Broken Hill battery … is successfully being charged by power from the grid and will be used to increase stability of power supply for local communities while the storm-damaged transmission line is reconstructed,” Transgrid said in a statement.

“The grid-scale battery will provide additional power to supplement supply and reduce reliance on the large-scale backup generator,” it said in reference to the one diesel generator still in operation and which had suffered multiple trips as the result of demand and supply volatility, heat issues and a failed fuel pump.

The battery reportedly did what it was supposed to do on Sunday evening, helping to alleviate the stress on the grid – particularly in the evening peak.

The single diesel generator is rated at 25 MW but can only produce around 14 MW due to various limitations and Transgrid and Essential Energy have had to rush in a number of small diesel generators to support the grid, and rooftop PV has had to be limited.


The 200 MW Silverton wind farm and the 53 MW Broken Hill solar farm are sitting idle. Their owner, Tilt Renewables, says they are not damaged but cannot generate under their connection rules in such circumstances. That would be different if the battery was operating as it could, or even should.

The AGL website boasts that the Broken Hill battery can – with the grid-forming inverters funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency – “support the reliable supply of electricity to Broken Hill in the event of line failure and provide efficient grid support for the region.”

Clearly, it didn’t do that when the line failed in the storm and it now emerges (thanks to the sharp eyes of a Renew Economy reader) that its ability to create mini grid in such circumstances had been deliberately disabled.

An AGL report into the battery’s system strength capabilities, published under the Knowledge Sharing requirements of ARENA funding, reveals that Transgrid had required the battery to include an “anti-islanding” scheme, meaning that its ability to provide the islanding service had been deliberately inhibited.

“It had been hoped that the Broken Hill Battery could be used to supply the Broken Hill load in the event of supply from the grid not being available due to faults or maintenance outages,” the report says.

“This service had previously been provided by Essential Energy using two 25MW GTs (gas turbines) running on diesel.
Click to expand...

Of interest, as of 2022 TransGrid has a fair swag of foreign stakeholders, over 60%.

Regarding corporatisation and the path to privatisation, something I'm guessing you'd know a far bit about @Smurf1976, I found this from the NSW parliament, reads in part.

Individual State governments and the Council of Australian Governments began the process of reform of the industry. State grids were connected to form a national grid, which allowed the commencement of a national electricity market. The reforms were given a boost with the release of the Hilmer Report on National Competition in 1993 (page 8).

In 1995 the ALP State Government enacted the Electricity Supply Act, the Energy Services Corporatisations Act and the Sustainable Energy Development Act (page 11). These Acts enabled the introduction of a competitive wholesale and retail electricity market, corporatised the power stations and distributors, and provided assistance in the market place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Generators were broken into three competing firms, whilst the distributors were amalgamated into six State owned companies.

In May 1997, the NSW Government introduced legislation to create the national electricity market, which is expected to commence fully in March 1998. Proposals to corporatise the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Authority did not proceed in Parliament (page 14). In May 1997 the Treasurer released proposals to privatise the electricity supply industry (page 14). In response to criticism about the privatisation plan, the government commissioned an inquiry chaired by Mr Bob Hogg. The majority view of the inquiry was to privatise the industry, with conditions (page 51). A dissenting minority view was also presented, arguing that the privatisation of the industry was not in the public interest (page 51).
Click to expand...
Reaffirms my claim (and settles the argument with one particular local, lol) that it was in the 1990's and NSW Labor not the LNP that set this in motion.
 
Craton said:
Regarding corporatisation and the path to privatisation
Click to expand...
My personal view is it can work under the right circumstances but those are very different from the circumstances we actually have at present.

Looking at it historically, gas was always private (shareholder owned) in several states but it was done under regulation, they weren't normal companies in the true sense but were in practice regulated quasi-governmental albeit privately owned entities. Suffice to say they got the job done, it worked.

That's AGL's main history by the way, as the oldest gas company in the southern hemisphere and one of the oldest companies outright in Australia, dating back to 1837. For most of its history it owned and was responsible for Sydney's gas supply, a situation that only changed in the 1990's when government decided it had to be broken up and competition introduced.

Same thing happened with the electricity industry, everything split up into myriad of companies that aren't allowed to compete with each other. In some cases that's gone to ridiculous extent - think lines physically painted on the ground and workers not allowed to work on the wrong side of the line, because that's another company's job. Ultimate cause of that = politicians and ideology and it's a reflection on the lack of trades and other practical people in parliament to have come up with such nonsense.

Back to private owners, it can work if approached the right way though. AGL wasn't the only one like that, the gas industry was always fully private in Qld and Tas as well, and it sort-of was in SA just with the state government being a major shareholder in the company, but it was a listed company as such. So a privately owned utility can work, as long as it's structured the right way but that's very different from what we have at the moment.

Key point about those private gas companies is the had privileges and responsibilities not afforded to most companies. On one hand an obligation to make sure gas was supplied. On the other hand authority to dig the streets up and build infrastructure without needing approval to do so, they had powers normally reserved for government, and government also protected them against being taken over. So they were quasi-governmental in practice, shareholder owned but with assorted responsibilities and restrictions on what they did.

About that last bit, as part of that arrangement the states retained the right to determine who was suitable to be a shareholder of those companies and yes, one requirement was to retain ownership within Australia.

Historically private generation has long existed to some extent but key point is the state authorities retained control over its operation, so it all ran as one big system regardless of ownership. Go back to 1981 when those gas turbines were bought and another thing that happened was the Melbourne City Council bringing old generating plant back into service and running it hard - and that was to keep the lights on in NSW not Victoria. Because that's what happens when it's all run as one big system with the focus being on the technical, things just get done. Who owns what being relevant only to the accountants transferring money between accounts - a legitimate thing but the tail must never wag the dog, the priority should be on delivering the service. :2twocents
 
Last edited:
Well if I could've, I would've I laid big money on it!

Unplanned power outage has hit the far west of NSW yet again. Power has been down for well over an hour now. Affecting over 12,700 customers.

According to ABC radio, it's a Transgrid issue as the transmission lines tripped. One can only assume that it's a major equipment failure somewhere along the line (pun intended)....

Safety and technical issues aside, I'd like to know why our backup systems haven't kicked in?
 
UPDATE.
At least today's bloody outage was just a tad under two hours long and not longer like so many others of recent times.
One's gotta be thankful for small mercies eh....
 

Similar threads

Craton
Albo's Coal and Gas Price Cap and Financial Aid proposal
2
Replies
38
Views
4K
Smurf1976
Smurf1976
ducati916
August 2024 DDD
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
18K
ducati916
ducati916
ducati916
April 2024 DDD
3 4 5
Replies
98
Views
8K
ducati916
ducati916
R
Scale Economies
Replies
3
Views
1K
RickyY
R
bigdog
J Capital Research
Replies
1
Views
2K
greggles
greggles
Top