Electric cars?

[Jack Aubrey]

Battery degradation is a real issue at this point in time and it is the biggest hurdle for EV's IMO, because when all the early uptakers are complaining at the same time Governments will have to take notice.
It is also the reason, that even though they are dearer in all aspects, fuel cell vehicles are more practical and sustainable.
Just my opinion.

Battery tech advances so rapidly I find it hard to keep up. Apart from the alternatives to rechargeable Li-Ion batteries, such as Vanadium Gels and the replaceable Aluminium Can battery, Elon Musk is touting upgraded Li-Ion batteries with a life that would deliver One Million miles of travel over their life. Yes, early adopters of EV will pay a premium (I have concerns about the resale value of current generation EVs, not to mention ICE vehicles) as better tech replaces them.

Hydrogen cells certainly look great once storage and transport of the fuel is addressed - which CSIRO and others are doing. My concern, as others have noted, is the "whole of life" emissions involved and what happens to the carbon during extraction of the H. So called "fugitive" emissions from gas production is a big problem now.

 

[Smurf1976]

Maybe EV's are just a ruse by the power companies to get people to buy more electricity ?

Either way, the fuel has to come from somewhere and uses resources to make it.

FWIW at least one Australian electricity company has been involved with the conversion of a standard vehicle to electric power and another one to hydrogen quite some years ago for research purposes.

The hydrogen powered one was actually an entrant in Targa Tasmania (a race of sorts on public roads) as a “real” entrant alongside its petrol powered competitors.

The power industry has been paying attention to both for quite some time. The mockup image of a service station with hydrogen pumps, on-site electrolyser and electricity company branding is probably still online somewhere although that was over a decade ago now.

 

[Junior]

Battery tech advances so rapidly I find it hard to keep up. Apart from the alternatives to rechargeable Li-Ion batteries, such as Vanadium Gels and the replaceable Aluminium Can battery, Elon Musk is touting upgraded Li-Ion batteries with a life that would deliver One Million miles of travel over their life. Yes, early adopters of EV will pay a premium (I have concerns about the resale value of current generation EVs, not to mention ICE vehicles) as better tech replaces them.

This is critical.

Battery technology is advancing so quickly....you will need less power to drive more miles every year, and the batteries will last longer and longer. In terms of the mining process one would think economies of scale will continue to come into play as the uptake of battery-powered vehicles and homes continues, and emissions created during the mining process should fall. Any energy used during the mining process will eventually be sourced from renewable sources, and on-site vehicles will eventually be EV.

You simply cannot say the same for IC vehicles, as every km you travel consumes more oil.

The other huge benefit, is the vast improvement we will see in air quality in our cities. Try driving through the Burnley tunnel with your window down......you will suffocate and pass out before you get to the other side!

 

[sptrawler]

This is critical.

Battery technology is advancing so quickly....you will need less power to drive more miles every year, and the batteries will last longer and longer. In terms of the mining process one would think economies of scale will continue to come into play as the uptake of battery-powered vehicles and homes continues, and emissions created during the mining process should fall. Any energy used during the mining process will eventually be sourced from renewable sources, and on-site vehicles will eventually be EV.

You simply cannot say the same for IC vehicles, as every km you travel consumes more oil.
!

You nailed it with that quote Junior, unless battery technology improves, it will be one of the biggest flops ever.
As a stockpile of toxic dead battery material builds, due to the massive introduction of new batteries, questions will start and be asked about the sustainability.
If the life cycle can't be improved, the push toward H2 fuel cells will increase, I think Japan recognises this and it is the reason they are going the H2 path straight away.
Just my opinion.

 

[Junior]

You nailed it with that quote Junior, unless battery technology improves, it will be one of the biggest flops ever.
As a stockpile of toxic dead battery material builds, due to the massive introduction of new batteries, questions will start and be asked about the sustainability.
If the life cycle can't be improved, the push toward H2 fuel cells will increase, I think Japan recognises this and it is the reason they are going the H2 path straight away.
Just my opinion.

That's the thing right...it doesn't matter what type of battery, the point is the tech will continue to advance quickly, and they will have to figure out a way to recycle old batteries. Consumers will demand it.

The point is, EVs produce no exhaust, need less maintenance and are highly likely to become more cost-effective than IC in the near future. It's a no-brainer to continue down this path.

 

[sptrawler]

That's the thing right...it doesn't matter what type of battery, the point is the tech will continue to advance quickly, and they will have to figure out a way to recycle old batteries. Consumers will demand it.

The point is, EVs produce no exhaust, need less maintenance and are highly likely to become more cost-effective than IC in the near future. It's a no-brainer to continue down this path.

That is exactly what they are hoping for, but a lot of time, research and money has been poured into battery development, which in reality hasn't really come up with any quantum leaps forward.
There is a lot of hoping going on and everyone understandably wants it to work out, however a lot of the driving at the moment is being done by public pressure, not sound technological improvement.
As you say customers will demand it, whether the designers can deliver it will to a degree be a case of wait and see what happens.
IMO the story is getting ahead of the reality, but I am hoping my next car will be electric, the difference with me is I am retired and can manage without a car.
But battery development has a long way to go, hopefully they have some major breakthrough, I'm sure lots are working on it.
Eon Musk is talking about the million mile battery, that will last the life of the car, now that would be magic because then that could be moved from an old car to a new car.
But ATM seeing is believing.

 

[qldfrog]

Same here, retiring means my car will stay at hone fed with my panels during the day, not parked at train station or in an UG city carpark
And i do not need to do a commute trip a day

 

[sptrawler]

Same here, retiring means my car will stay at hone fed with my panels during the day, not parked at train station or in an UG city carpark
And i do not need to do a commute trip a day

Spot on frog, the wife and I just got back from a 10klm pedal to Aldi, she carried 10x2litre milk containers home, on the back of the push bike.
Unfortunately my bike doesn't have a carrier, or I could have helped.
By the way that is 10klm each way.

 

[SirRumpole]

Spot on frog, the wife and I just got back from a 10klm pedal to Aldi, she carried 10x2litre milk containers home, on the back of the push bike.
Unfortunately my bike doesn't have a carrier, or I could have helped.
By the way that is 10klm each way.

Maybe you need an electric bike.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe you need an electric bike.

Already have them, but the ride to do the shopping is for excercise.

 

[Jack Aubrey]

I just checked my diary and I'm off to a public forum tonight called "Will My Next Car Be Electric?". It will have speakers from the renewables lobby and our local (ACT) government (which apparently has a group dealing with transition issues!). If I get the chance, I'll ask about public recharging infrastructure, hydrogen alternatives and roads funding and report back here.

In theory, the ACT is already on 100% renewable electricity (basically because our wholesalers are compelled to buy renewable-sourced electricity from the grid and we do have some big solar and wind farms). Weirdly (if you believe the nay sayers), our electricity is cheaper than every State (but very close to Qld prices). The accounting on this boggles my mind.

Well, it was an interesting talk but not exactly what I had expected - mostly about how far and fast the Europeans are moving (and how far we are behind).

One speaker reviewed the Euro scene in terms of the plans of the major manufacturers (VW, Audi, Renault and Mercedes) and how the Governments, power companies and ancillary industries are working with them. Key highlights for me were:

Big focus on cars as mobile batteries - charging at depots/work places during the day and discharging at homes at night.

Lots of associated businesses - charging network providers, ICE conversion companies (!), battery recycling/repurposing - are considered part of the industry and have the backing of the manufacturers.

Battery life is seen as challenge, but not one they are overly worried about as they say "exhausted" car batteries can (and already are) being repurposed for conventional energy storage (Renault does this). They also accept that batteries will get better year-on-year. Most manufacturers build their cars around "drop in" batteries anyway.

Of the car companies discussed, only Merc expects to be making ICE cars (petrol, NOT diesel) in 15 years time (Merc says about 30% of their output will still be high tech (very low emission) petrol engines.

Germany expects that electric cars will start to put pressure on the (European) grid by 2026. The gap will be filled by renewables.

Australia will continue to receive very few new European EVs over the next three years as 1) their priority is reaching critical mass in Europe for infrastructure reasons, 2) battery supply constraints, 3) majors need to maintain car sales when the new Euro emission standards come into force, and 4) Australia's side air bag requirements are a PIA.​

The rest of the talk was about the measures the ACT Government is taking to promote uptake of EVs (and Hydrogen). I'll summarise briefly:

No sales tax and a 20% discount on registration (already in place)

More than 30 free public charging stations (55 charge points) already operating (plus one Hydrogen refuelling station)

Govt working with regional councils along major highways to ensure lots of charging points.

All ACT Government fleet cars to be zero emissions by the end of 2020. Bus fleet to follow. (EV Ambulances and a fire truck are being trialled)

Looking towards other incentives for private uptake and review of development rules for new unit blocks to have charging stations.​

I asked about the replacement of fuel excise as a revenue source (a very Canberra question). Local Govt people were aware of this as a long-term issue but think the national uptake will be so slow that it won't become an issue for around 10 years.

Other matters raised included that fact the Australia currently sees 23 models of commercial EVs - Europeans have a choice of 125. The fact that we have no have national strategy and are unlikely to have one anytime soon was highlighted (but that's just Canberra Bubble talk!).

Tea, coffee and mint slice biscuits were provided. I indulged.

 

[sptrawler]

Excellent summary, thanks Jack.

 

[Smurf1976]

The fact that we have no have national strategy and are unlikely to have one anytime soon was highlighted

My great hope in all of this is that we (Australia) doesn't stuff it up in the same way we've tended to stuff up other technical things in recent times. Electricity, gas, NBN, water management......

I don't mean that as a negative comment, and I'm strongly in favour of EV's, but I've seen more than enough in other technical fields to be in the "alert and alarmed" category that this one doesn't also end up as a political football.

That we'll end up with a solution forced by European manufacturers is perhaps a good thing really.

 

[sptrawler]

My great hope in all of this is that we (Australia) doesn't stuff it up in the same way we've tended to stuff up other technical things in recent times. Electricity, gas, NBN, water management......

I don't mean that as a negative comment, and I'm strongly in favour of EV's, but I've seen more than enough in other technical fields to be in the "alert and alarmed" category that this one doesn't also end up as a political football.

That we'll end up with a solution forced by European manufacturers is perhaps a good thing really.

Absolutely agree, we really are no position to demand a standard voltage or plug etc, as you say we are better off to wait untill standards are introduced in a major market like the EU then adopt it.

 

[qldfrog]

One point of worry about EV is the lack of noise
It is dangerous not to hear these gliding electric bikes or taxis zipping past by the hundred in China
There should be a pleasant, low range sound added to car to avoid road kills .. human or animal

And that probably means we have at least one parasite department per country..or state, starting a million plus new project to define volume, frequency, etc
And they will make it mandatory on sold vehicles
Anyone gas any info on this ir will it only happen after the first class action against Tesla?
Good think is with electronic, it will be really easy to be compliant with dozen of disparate standards, but if we could avoid....

 

[Jack Aubrey]

Absolutely agree, we really are no position to demand a standard voltage or plug etc, as you say we are better off to wait untill standards are introduced in a major market like the EU then adopt it.

Yes, it occurred to me during the meeting that we may actually benefit from not having a domestic car industry lobbying furiously to hold back the tide. We will certainly be a "technology taker" rather than innovator in this instance. Several EV owners at the meeting were of the view that Japanese manufacturers will eventually adopt the European charging standard, but that may have been their confirmation bias. The Chinese were not mentioned at all. Given that the Europeans are not particularly interested in export markets at the moment, that's where supply may come from.

There are also some complexities around Australian vehicle emission standards. We are at least a decade behind Europe and California. There was some suggestion at the meeting that this may be seen as opportunity for other countries to dump their dirtier ICE lines in our market. I can't see that happening as we are such a small market and I don't think it would be worth their while.

 

[Value Collector]

Maybe EV's are just a ruse by the power companies to get people to buy more electricity ?

Either way, the fuel has to come from somewhere and uses resources to make it.

People can make their own electricity, and there is a lot of competition to exploit multiple fuel sources, eg wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, coal, gas, oil, geothermal, wave power etc etc etc.

And people charge at home, or in any number of convenient locations that pop up.


With hydrogen, it will pretty much just be natural gas based sources, and fueling stations will be existing petrol stations.

Hydrogen = status quo for big oil, and they like that, what would be more scary for big oil than the idea people will charge at home 99% of the time, and the other 1% during road trips they will be charging at sites that aren’t their petrol stations.

 

[Jack Aubrey]

Hydrogen = status quo for big oil, and they like that, what would be more scary for big oil than the idea people will charge at home 99% of the time, and the other 1% during road trips they will be charging at sites that aren’t their petrol stations.

I've got no problem with Hydrogen from gas provided carbon capture and storage is part of the whole deal. ACT Buses and some other heavy vehicles are tipped to go Hydrogen in the next two years because of weight and long daily use issues. A trial of battery buses in 2018 threw up major charging and battery-life issues. At present our (ACT) Hydrogen supply is from water electrolysis (a side-deal with one of our wind energy suppliers). The (Federal) Chief Scientist is also backing Hydrogen for heavy vehicle fleets. Gas economics defeats me. We seem to be an importer now despite abundant reserves.

 

[SirRumpole]

Gas economics defeats me. We seem to be an importer now despite abundant reserves.

It's more gas politics.

Some people in government have done pretty well out of these deals I would say, and if hydrogen is the fuel of the future then I can see that going the same way.

Concentrate on exports and the Australian consumer gets the dregs.


In that, I can see the point VC is making. There are many more sources of electricity to charge EV's than there would be sources of hydrogen.

 

[Value Collector]

I've got no problem with Hydrogen from gas provided carbon capture and storage is part of the whole deal. ACT Buses and some other heavy vehicles are tipped to go Hydrogen in the next two years because of weight and long daily use issues. A trial of battery buses in 2018 threw up major charging and battery-life issues. At present our (ACT) Hydrogen supply is from water electrolysis (a side-deal with one of our wind energy suppliers). The (Federal) Chief Scientist is also backing Hydrogen for heavy vehicle fleets. Gas economics defeats me. We seem to be an importer now despite abundant reserves.

I have no problem with hydrogen if it were coming from electrolysis.

Except,.... that process has such huge energy losses, that you are far better off using the electricity to charge batteries, rather than fill tanks of hydrogen, and then convert it back to electricity.

Also, due to the huge energy losses of electrolysis, natural gas is a cheaper alternative, So even though the process will be sold as a “green” alternative, it actually won’t be, the increased demand for hydrogen won’t create demand for renewables it will create demand for natural gas.

Electric buses are growing in popularity every where, what ever issues you had in the Act are probably easily solved.

—————-
As I have mentioned before, I am longterm shareholder in Apa, so any extra demand for Natural gas means more dividends for me.

So it’s in my interest to push hydrogen, but I just honestly don’t think it’s the way to go.

(Although there will be some great uses for hydrogen in storage of excess green energy, and other uses, but for most vehicles, batteries are better today, and will get increasingly better with time. )