Electric cars?

[farmerge]

I think many who discuss energy (in general, not specifically on ASF) forget that oil is the original problem needing to be solved.

Climate change and other environmental issues (nuclear waste, ash dumps, flooded valleys, killing the birds, whatever) are downsides of some of the alternatives to oil but in no way change that oil is the original problem needing to be fixed.

Because whilst nobody knows for absolute certain how much economically recoverable oil is on the planet, we do know that it's a reasonably limited resource relative to present consumption rates. If that wasn't the case then we wouldn't go to such extreme lengths to obtain it - there's nothing else we go into seriously deep water, to the north pole or into war zones to obtain like we do with oil and we do that simply because oil is sufficiently limited that we can't obtain enough by easier means.

In due course, as the most readily accessible and highest quality deposits are used up, obtaining oil is only going to get harder. Details about timing aside, that's inevitable by the very nature of it being a finite resource that we're consuming at the rate of 185,000 litres per second, every second of the day and night, every day of the year. Timing's hard to know but ultimately we can't keep that up indefinitely, at some point it gives out and the stuff's hard enough to obtain now to say that point is likely near enough to warrant at least some degree of concern and action regarding alternatives.

Whether or not EV's are the long term solution, conventional petrol and diesel clearly aren't.

I remember some time ago the belief was that oil production had reached it's zenith and we were on a downward slope from there.
The prices went up and the doomdayers were predicting the worst case scenarios.
As you so correctly say it is a finite resource and its day will eventually arrive.
Will the old sweat machine make an appearance as a mode of transport for short haul.
I just had a thought, the Toorak Tractors being replaced in the shopping centres wow.

 

[Boggo]

Australia is probably in the best position of any country to do this with the enormous resource we have.
While we have too many misguided and shortsighted vocal seat warmers sitting in tax payer funded buildings it will never happen.

Nuclear power helps bring down electricity prices by 75% in Finland | The National

Country expects wind to be its largest energy source by 2027

www.thenationalnews.com

 

[farmerge]

Australia is probably in the best position of any country to do this with the enormous resource we have.

Nuclear power helps bring down electricity prices by 75% in Finland | The National

Country expects wind to be its largest energy source by 2027

www.thenationalnews.com

The big problem with nuclear do we have the pollies with the foresight to take this step. For me they are only interested in the 3 years forward from the last election and holding onto the Treasury Bench
From a State perspective we had a couple of real forward thinkers here in WA.
Mr Charles Court, later Sir Charlie, Liberal, and
Mr Ernie Bridge, Labour.
Sadly the calibre these blokes had shown is a rareity generally found countrywide .

 

[qldfrog]

The current technology is a stop gap, the T model Ford is nothing like the the latest V8 Mustang, as you say the current battery technology wont be here in 30 years, same as the current battery operated tools are nothing like those from 10 years ago, times move on.

I agree but the push for more charging stations etc..nah .
Can we not agree that swapping battery pack would be a better option?
Move the management IT( internal battery system,not people?) within a standard pack and:
You are as efficient as ICE, your EV has no range issues, same performance now as in 10 y time and technology of battery can improve or be revolutionised in parallel.
We do not have ice built for specific oil field product and thrown away when the field is exhausted..as we do with lithium
Potentially packs using H2 in cells as well so that we are not limited to lithium
That is where government push should be.
I am more on more convinced our current batch of EV is the equivalent of the fluo bulbs we were pushed to buy in 2000 to replace filament ones, plenty of promises..under delivery.. ultimately a liability.
I got conned as all environment caring people did, not again
Governments should guide not direct technology..same mistakes again and again.
Basically we should split EV and battery as 2 issues
EV hard to fault in concept, battery..not yet there for replacement of needs.(talking planet wide here)
So the global solution pushed by our western governments/WEF is to mandate the need....you own nothing definitely not your car, you do not travel ..hum

 

[qldfrog]

I think many who discuss energy (in general, not specifically on ASF) forget that oil is the original problem needing to be solved.

Climate change and other environmental issues (nuclear waste, ash dumps, flooded valleys, killing the birds, whatever) are downsides of some of the alternatives to oil but in no way change that oil is the original problem needing to be fixed.

Because whilst nobody knows for absolute certain how much economically recoverable oil is on the planet, we do know that it's a reasonably limited resource relative to present consumption rates. If that wasn't the case then we wouldn't go to such extreme lengths to obtain it - there's nothing else we go into seriously deep water, to the north pole or into war zones to obtain like we do with oil and we do that simply because oil is sufficiently limited that we can't obtain enough by easier means.

In due course, as the most readily accessible and highest quality deposits are used up, obtaining oil is only going to get harder. Details about timing aside, that's inevitable by the very nature of it being a finite resource that we're consuming at the rate of 185,000 litres per second, every second of the day and night, every day of the year. Timing's hard to know but ultimately we can't keep that up indefinitely, at some point it gives out and the stuff's hard enough to obtain now to say that point is likely near enough to warrant at least some degree of concern and action regarding alternatives.

Whether or not EV's are the long term solution, conventional petrol and diesel clearly aren't.

And to reenforce I fully agree there, oil itself has to be replaced, and the earlier the better but we do not want to see things like that

Dozens of giant turbines at Scots windfarms powered by diesel generators

Scottish Power admitted 71 of its windmills were hooked up to the fossil fuel supply after a fault developed with their power supply. Dozens of giant turbines on Scotland’s windfarms have been powered by diesel generators, the Sunday Mail can

www.wind-watch.org

Absurdities resulting of governments ineptitude and narrative...
And sadly. We are now seeing diesel generators supplying EV charging stations..the irony..or as I see it..the waste ...poor earth

 

[Value Collector]

I agree but the push for more charging stations etc..nah .
Can we not agree that swapping battery pack would be a better option?
Move the management IT( internal battery system,not people?) within a standard pack and:
You are as efficient as ICE, your EV has no range issues, same performance now as in 10 y time and technology of battery can improve or be revolutionised in parallel.
We do not have ice built for specific oil field product and thrown away when the field is exhausted..as we do with lithium
Potentially packs using H2 in cells as well so that we are not limited to lithium
That is where government push should be.
I am more on more convinced our current batch of EV is the equivalent of the fluo bulbs we were pushed to buy in 2000 to replace filament ones, plenty of promises..under delivery.. ultimately a liability.
I got conned as all environment caring people did, not again
Governments should guide not direct technology..same mistakes again and again.
Basically we should split EV and battery as 2 issues
EV hard to fault in concept, battery..not yet there for replacement of needs.(talking planet wide here)
So the global solution pushed by our western governments/WEF is to mandate the need....you own nothing definitely not your car, you do not travel ..hum

Tesla already went down the battery swap route, and realised for multiple reasons it’s an inferior model.

 

[sptrawler]

The big problem with nuclear do we have the pollies with the foresight to take this step. For me they are only interested in the 3 years forward from the last election and holding onto the Treasury Bench
From a State perspective we had a couple of real forward thinkers here in WA.
Mr Charles Court, later Sir Charlie, Liberal, and
Mr Ernie Bridge, Labour.
Sadly the calibre these blokes had shown is a rareity generally found countrywide .

Eventually limited options will drive the adoption, this will happen when renewables have maxed out what they can sensibly deliver, be that on the generation side, storage side or available space and economic side.
It all boils back to energy density and we need more and more of it.

 

[sptrawler]

An interesting article, that explains the reality for a lot of countries, the difficulties they face and the role hybrids can play.

At the moment the Government in Australia has a lot of fires burning and E.V's rate very low on the importance scale, but as with most of the issues the problems are growing daily.

Plug in hybrids make no sense in Australia financially, there is no point in the companies trying to push them on a common sense theme, when they don't stack up on a financially.
In W.A the Govt is going to tax E.V's at 2.5c/km and PHEV's at 2c/km, when you add the cost of petrol/ maintenance and price premium, they make no sense at all IMO. A person is far better off either buying full petrol model for half the price, or a full E.V for a similar price.

Toyota's top scientist claims hybrids are better for coal-burning nations, such as Australia – report

Toyota's top scientist says battery materials are limited and should be used for hybrids, especially where coal is used for electricity.

www.drive.com.au

 

[Value Collector]

And to reenforce I fully agree there, oil itself has to be replaced, and the earlier the better but we do not want to see things like that

Dozens of giant turbines at Scots windfarms powered by diesel generators

Scottish Power admitted 71 of its windmills were hooked up to the fossil fuel supply after a fault developed with their power supply. Dozens of giant turbines on Scotland’s windfarms have been powered by diesel generators, the Sunday Mail can

www.wind-watch.org

Absurdities resulting of governments ineptitude and narrative...
And sadly. We are now seeing diesel generators supplying EV charging stations..the irony..or as I see it..the waste ...poor earth

Gee, you are scraping the bottom of the barrel there by reading articles by groups who receive funding from fossil fuels think tanks. What else have you been reading? Maybe look for more credible sources rather than alarmist propaganda.

 

[sptrawler]

Well this shows how quickly a battery plant can be built, if someone is interested in building one here.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution Ltd. will invest 5.7 trillion won ($4.3 billion) to produce electric-car batteries in the US to comply with President Joe Biden’s clean energy tax law, which seeks to encourage domestic production and reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers.

The Hyundai group — which includes Hyundai Motor Co., Kia Corp. and Genesis — and LG Energy will split the investment 50-50, according to a statement Friday. The plant, in Bryan County, Georgia, will have an annual capacity of 30 GWh, enough to power 300,000 electric vehicles, the carmaker said.
Construction will start in the second half of 2023 and production will begin as early as the end of 2025.

 

[farmerge]

Well this shows how quickly a battery plant can be built, if someone is interested in building one here.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution Ltd. will invest 5.7 trillion won ($4.3 billion) to produce electric-car batteries in the US to comply with President Joe Biden’s clean energy tax law, which seeks to encourage domestic production and reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers.

The Hyundai group — which includes Hyundai Motor Co., Kia Corp. and Genesis — and LG Energy will split the investment 50-50, according to a statement Friday. The plant, in Bryan County, Georgia, will have an annual capacity of 30 GWh, enough to power 300,000 electric vehicles, the carmaker said.
Construction will start in the second half of 2023 and production will begin as early as the end of 2025.

Sorry to say the people resposible in the Dept of Foresight are having a "lack of foresight" time off.

 

[sptrawler]

The new Volvo small SUV unveiled, it looks like two battery chemistries are going to be the go, which makes a lot of sense IMO. A person can buy for range, or buy for price, very similar as happened with ICE cars.

2024 Volvo EX30 electric car leaked, first driving range details confirmed

A photo of the Volvo EX30 has leaked on social media, as the first technical details of Volvo's smallest electric car yet are confirmed.

www.drive.com.au

The entry-level option is a 51kWh lithium-iron phosphate battery – technology used by Tesla and China's BYD, which is cheaper to produce than a traditional lithium-ion pack, but not as energy dense.
Buyers will be able to option a 69kWh battery with nickel-cobalt-manganese chemistry, which when paired with one electric motor at the rear, is estimated to deliver up to 480km of claimed driving range.

 

[JohnDe]

Ford & Tesla, this will be interesting in the world of EVs.

Ford Stock Rides Tesla EV Partnership To Best Day Since October

Ford’s stock spiked 7.4% by early afternoon, set for its largest daily gain since October as investors digested the news first shared by Ford CEO Jim Farley during a Twitter Spaces conversation Thursday with Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk.

Tesla shares rose 6% on Friday as the expansion presents a new source of revenue (the companies did not say Thursday how much Ford owners will pay to use Tesla’s chargers).

Tesla’s services division, which includes revenue from its charger fees, brought in $1.8 billion during the first three months of 2023, accounting for 8% of total sales and rising 44% year-over-year.

TANGENT​

Though Musk said Ford is now on “equal footing” in the EV arms race thanks to the new partnership, Ford still has significant ground to make up: Ford sold about 11,000 electric cars domestically during the first three months of this year, a tiny fraction of Tesla’s more than 160,000 EVs sold and making it just the fifth best-selling EV brand in the country.

KEY BACKGROUND​

When Tesla first went public in 2010, its market capitalization was about $2 billion, compared to Ford’s roughly $35 billion valuation at the time. Now, Tesla is the ninth-biggest company in the world with a $615 billion market cap, dwarfing Ford’s $49 billion valuation. Ford’s roughly 13% market share in the U.S. trumps Tesla’s 4% share, but its financials are far weaker compared to Tesla’s, as Musk’s company turned a $12.6 billion profit in 2022 while Ford lost nearly $2 billion.

 

[JohnDe]

Things in the EV world are picking up pace, again.

After decades of trying to sell German engineering to Americans only to end up with a tiny slice of the world’s most profitable car market, Volkswagen has a new strategy: Pretend it is American.​

​

Inspired by electric-truck start-ups like Rivian and the buzz around Tesla’s planned pick-up, the European car giant is about to relaunch the defunct Scout brand as an off-road electric vehicle made to Americans’ tastes.​

​

VW is hoping that the combination of a US brand, a marketing message heavy on Americana, and a foray into SUVs and pick-up trucks – the biggest and most profitable segment of the US car market – can finally boost its presence in the country.​

VW taps Americana for its next big US push​

Scout chief Scott Keogh is banking on pure Americana for VW to finally break through in the key market.

After decades of trying to sell German engineering to Americans only to end up with a tiny slice of the world’s most profitable car market, Volkswagen has a new strategy: Pretend it is American.

Inspired by electric-truck start-ups like Rivian and the buzz around Tesla’s planned pick-up, the European car giant is about to relaunch the defunct Scout brand as an off-road electric vehicle made to Americans’ tastes.

VW is hoping that the combination of a US brand, a marketing message heavy on Americana, and a foray into SUVs and pick-up trucks – the biggest and most profitable segment of the US car market – can finally boost its presence in the country.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for VW, which has become reliant on China for almost half its sales. As it loses ground there to nimbler homegrown EV start-ups, it is under pressure to increase its presence in other markets, and the US is where it has the most headroom.

The carmaker is planning to launch more than two dozen electric models in the US across its stable of brands, but executives hope that Scout can create the buzz they need to challenge General Motors and Ford on their home ground.

“Made in America by Americans, an American brand is a powerful thing, and we’re excited about it,” Scout chief executive officer Scott Keogh told The Wall Street Journal this year after closing the deal to locate Scout’s first manufacturing plant in South Carolina.

“This is going to put us right into the heart of the action,” he added. Born in Old Brookville, New York, the second-generation Irish-American spent 11 years at the US division of Mercedes-Benz, rising to general manager for the Smart nameplate, before joining VW’s luxury brand Audi in 2006, becoming CEO in 2012.

During his time at Audi, Keogh built relationships with the brand’s US dealers and oversaw a rise in sales from just over 90,000 in 2006 to 223,323 vehicles 12 years later, when he left Audi to become president and CEO of Volkswagen of America.

Around the time that VW put Keogh in charge of its North American business, the company was beginning to invest heavily in EVs. Keogh and his bosses back in Germany were also taking note of the rise of electric-pick-up start-ups in the US such as Rivian and the slow approach that rivals GM, Ford, and Toyota were taking. But VW remained cautious in the face of the highly competitive US truck market.

Then, in 2020, VW acquired Navistar, an ailing truck maker and successor to the defunct International Harvester. With it came a once-beloved brand that hadn’t produced any vehicle since 1980: Scout.

With few exceptions such as the niche but popular Atlas SUV, VW has largely marketed European designs to Americans, going essentially nowhere: Though VW is the world’s second-largest carmaker by sales, its brands – Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, etc, – represented a combined 4.1 per cent of the US car market in 2022, down slightly from the previous year. That is far behind Toyota, which has about 15 per cent of the US market.

A few months after the Navistar acquisition, in March 2021, VW’s management board held a strategy conference at the company’s headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany, and laid the groundwork to resurrect the Scout brand as a rugged all-electric SUV and pick-up truck, according to company officials. Then, last year, VW announced its plan to revive the brand as a fully-owned independent American subsidiary with local management centred around an iconic American vehicle – a first for VW.

Scout dates back to the late 1950s, when Ted Ornas, an auto designer for International Harvester, designed the company’s first Scout, a four-wheel-drive recreational vehicle, something that didn’t exist at the time.

Frustrated after his designs generated little interest from his superiors, Ornas, who died in 2009, once said he dashed off a rough sketch at his kitchen table one evening. That became the basis for the first Scout, a box-shaped mashup of a World War II-era Willys Jeep and a pick-up truck. The vehicle launched in 1960 and half a million Scouts sold over the next 20 years, creating a passionate fan base.

“The Jeep was for the military, but the Scout was the first civilian SUV, ” said John Gunnell, a 75-year-old former editor of Old Cars Weekly.

Keogh has made it a point to seek out the Scout fans, according to VW officials, visiting clubs, and having his picture taken in refurbished models that he posts on social media. The first rough illustrations of what the new Scout might look like show VW’s intention to stay as close to the original as possible.

Scout was one of the main projects launched under VW CEO Herbert Diess. So when Diess was ousted and replaced by Oliver Blume, the chief of VW’s sports-car brand Porsche, last September, Keogh’s plan was thrown into question.

Blume has said he wants to strengthen VW’s US business, and as VW board member he had been part of the discussions about Scout. But as the new CEO, he had already begun to scrap some of his predecessor’s projects.

A 1971 Scout 800B Comanche. Picture: Scout Motors

Last November, Keogh said, he and his team met Blume in an old warehouse on the sidelines of the LA Auto Show. Keogh showed Blume the promotional video, called “America’s Next Shot,” created by San Francisco ad agency Venables Bell & Partners.

It opens with images of wheat fields, a cowboy riding a horse on the plains, steelmaking, American flags and archival footage of Scout vehicles scrambling up hills and dirt roads. The narrator talks about the revival of American manufacturing and the Scout, saying: “It is America’s next shot. And we do not intend to miss.”

“We spent four to five hours with him in Los Angeles at the motor show and gave him a deep dive on everything as to where we are. And … he has been a powerful supporter,” Keogh said.

A month later, Keogh’s team was narrowing its search for a site to build the Scout plant after going through dossiers on around 74 sites, visiting several of them, according to officials from Scout, VW, real-estate company Jones Lang LaSalle and the governor of South Carolina.

Keogh said the team considered using a contract manufacturer to build the Scout but that it settled on building its own plant, in part because he felt the new company needed to be part of an American community to find favour with US consumers.

Having picked a site near Columbia, South Carlolina, Keogh and several top VW executives in February attended a working dinner hosted by South Carolina governor Henry McMaster at his Civil War-era mansion with a commanding view of the Broad and Saluda rivers.

Guests included South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, the state’s Commerce Secretary Harry Lightsey and Richland County officials. The governor’s English bulldog Mac wove his way through the crowd, settling next to Keogh, according to participants.

Keogh showed his video and made a 15-minute pitch describing Scout as the embodiment of the American dream, McMaster recalled in a recent interview.

“It was a combination of rugged individualism, can-do spirit, American patriotism and an excellent vehicle,” the governor recalled. “Those things can climb walls. It particularly appeals to South Carolinians.”

A month later, South Carolina politicians approved $US1.3bn to help VW build the plant.

The Wall Street Journal

 

[sptrawler]

Who says battery plants can't be built where they don't build cars.

https://www.mining.com/web/gm-gets-financial-support-for-ev-battery-plant-in-quebec/

General Motors Co. and Posco Future M Co., Ltd. have secured half of the financing for a C$600 million ($442 million) electric-vehicle battery component plant in Quebec from the provincial and federal governments.

In March 2022, the US and South Korean companies announced plans to form a joint venture dubbed Ultium Cam and build a cathode material factory in Becancour, halfway between Montreal and Quebec City. Cathodes represent about 40% of the cost of a battery cell, according to General Motors. The carmaker has committed to invest $35 billion in electric and autonomous vehicles between 2020 and 2025.

​

The governments of Canada and Quebec will each contribute around C$150 million to the project, which is expected to create 200 jobs. The plant is scheduled to be in operation within two years.

 

[JohnDe]

The speed of change is picking up-

The Global Adoption Of Battery Electric Vehicles Is Gaining More Traction​

By Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics​

​

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales surpassed 10% share of global light vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2023, as shown below. For the past three years, BEV adoption during the first quarter has lagged that in the fourth quarter, perhaps because of Chinese New Year. This year, however, BEV share broke that seasonal trend.​

​

Not all automakers have participated in the upside. Tesla, BYD, VW, and GAC Motor, for example, accounted for ~75% of the year-to-date BEV sales growth on a year-over-year basis through April 20231—even though they account for only ~48% of total sales—while ~40% of automakers reported BEV sales declines. Macroeconomic headwinds seem to be separating the winners from the losers.​

​

Source: Irle, V. 2023. “Global EV Adoption is on steady increase.” Twitter. Based on data from EV-volumes.com, as of June 2, 2023. ​

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article, especially about how many dogs are killed on the road in the U.S.

Autonomous car kills dog in San Francisco

An autonomous car struck and killed a dog while driving in San Francisco last month – believed to be the first animal death by a ‘self-driving’ car.

www.drive.com.au

From the article:
According to the incident report filed with California's Department of Motor Vehicles, the robotaxi’s autonomous driving systems detected the dog, however neither the vehicle’s on-board systems nor the human ‘safety operator’ in the driver’s seat applied the brakes.

The spokesperson also claimed the dog took an “unusual path” at “a high rate of speed directly towards the side of the vehicle”, leading to the impact.

Some US websites – such as animal fence company Pet Playgrounds – claim approximately 1.2 million dogs are hit and killed by cars every year in the country, the equivalent of almost 3300 a day.

 

[farmerge]

Interesting article, especially about how many dogs are killed on the road in the U.S.

Autonomous car kills dog in San Francisco

An autonomous car struck and killed a dog while driving in San Francisco last month – believed to be the first animal death by a ‘self-driving’ car.

www.drive.com.au

From the article:
According to the incident report filed with California's Department of Motor Vehicles, the robotaxi’s autonomous driving systems detected the dog, however neither the vehicle’s on-board systems nor the human ‘safety operator’ in the driver’s seat applied the brakes.

The spokesperson also claimed the dog took an “unusual path” at “a high rate of speed directly towards the side of the vehicle”, leading to the impact.

Some US websites – such as animal fence company Pet Playgrounds – claim approximately 1.2 million dogs are hit and killed by cars every year in the country, the equivalent of almost 3300 a day.

Hmm Obviously the dogs are just out roaming, not being kept safely behind a fence.

 

[mullokintyre]

after driving around Western NSW these past few weeks, the amount of road kill is stunning.
Emus, Roos, goats, wild pigs, sheep, beef cattle, snakes, birds (including a wedge tail eagle), they will have plenty of critters to test the software on.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

after driving around Western NSW these past few weeks, the amount of road kill is stunning.
Emus, Roos, goats, wild pigs, sheep, beef cattle, snakes, birds (including a wedge tail eagle), they will have plenty of critters to test the software on.
Mick

Knock on wood, my worst incident with wildlife was a rabbit and a few nice. I travel on country roads quite a bit, trying to avoid dusk and dawn when the roos like to spot vehicles and play games