Electric cars?

[PZ99]

If you read a few posts earlier, I said we are in a very good position, to start a battery manufacturing industry. Post #746

Yeah I saw that. That's in addition to the export market for the Lithium itself. Chinese companies are all over it at the moment.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah I saw that. That's in addition to the export market for the Lithium itself. Chinese companies are all over it at the moment.

Yes the demand is rising, but we need to get into the value adding, before it becomes like iron ore or any other raw material.
We can't maintain a first world lifestyle, by competing with third world countries and just digging up and exporting raw materials. We need to value add and get tertiary industry happening, where the lithium, nickel, cobalt etc, is exported as a battery that's where the money is.
Tesla's S.A battery cost $100m, but the raw materials would fit in 4 trucks. We wouldn't get that for 12 ore carrier ships full of raw material.

 

[moXJO]

Only batteries make electric cars more expensive.
Tesla's are unashamedly upmarket, and Musk is clawing back hundreds of millions in research in order to stay in business.
Electric cars themselves are incredibly basic, so building them would be a doddle. Equipping them with the latest electronic gadgetary is also getting cheaper every year.

This is exactly right. How they have not made a viable tradie van is beyond me. And it would need a minimum of 350km range. And thats at the very least with a decent load.
I've looked around as to whats on offer for trades and there is a long way to go before evs are even considered.
I honestly think they will need hybrids before full ev.

 

[rederob]

This is exactly right. How they have not made a viable tradie van is beyond me.

But they have!

 

[rederob]

Now, just over a day ago there was too much wind in SA and generation from already built wind farms went to waste. Wind was going really well in Vic at the same time too, all running nicely. Now, if only we had the ability to somehow store the wind so we could use it later.....

Just to put this earlier post into perspective, total annual wind power generation (ie electricity) in Europe last year was 100 terawatt hours (TWh) greater than all sources of electricity production in Australia. By 2030 Europe expects to generate about 700TWh of electricity from wind turbines, which will be well in excess of twice as much as Australia's total output from all sources.

 

[sptrawler]

Just to put this earlier post into perspective, total annual wind power generation (ie electricity) in Europe last year was 100 terawatt hours (TWh) greater than all sources of electricity production in Australia. By 2030 Europe expects to generate about 700TWh of electricity from wind turbines, which will be well in excess of twice as much as Australia's total output from all sources.

Just to put the European car and the renewable comparison in perspective, as it is the market place and demand, that drives and funds the growth.
Europe has a population of 740million, Australia has a population of 25m.

 

[rederob]

Just to put the European car and the renewable comparison in perspective, as it is the market place and demand, that drives and funds the growth.
Europe has a population of 740million, Australia has a population of 25m.

Yes, but that's incidental to the additional electrical energy requirements of a vehicle fleet that is not presently consuming electricity, and a fleet of similar size by 2030 that will be.
I am pointing out first that from a capacity perspective, all Australia's electricity needs could come from wind energy by 2030 (obviously if that investment were committed), and even if it did not, wind power would be the simplest way to progressively add energy to the grid as the transition from ICE to EV was occurring.
That's because wind is not constrained like solar, so the principle of overnight charging makes sense given that what has already happened with excess wind power going nowhere could in future flow into EVs.

 

[basilio]

There is a range of electric tradie type utes either at market or close to being released.

Future Electric Pickup Trucks Worth Waiting For


JAN 31 2019 BY JEFF PEREZ
87

From the Rivian R1T to the promised Tesla pickup, these are the electric pickup trucks to start saving up for.
The truck wars are heating up, and manufacturers will introduce new and exciting pickups across multiple segments in the coming years. But more importantly for us in the electric car sphere, electric trucks are coming soon.
https://insideevs.com/future-electric-pickup-trucks/

 

[sptrawler]

Yes, but that's incidental to the additional electrical energy requirements of a vehicle fleet that is not presently consuming electricity, and a fleet of similar size by 2030 that will be.
I am pointing out first that from a capacity perspective, all Australia's electricity needs could come from wind energy by 2030 (obviously if that investment were committed), and even if it did not, wind power would be the simplest way to progressively add energy to the grid as the transition from ICE to EV was occurring.
That's because wind is not constrained like solar, so the principle of overnight charging makes sense given that what has already happened with excess wind power going nowhere could in future flow into EVs.

The other elephant in the room, that no one is talking about, with this headlong rush to E.V's.
Is the depreciation cost involved, the value of the ICE vehicle will fall like a stone, much quicker than the E.V purchase cost, over the same period of time.
Some people, like ASF members, wont notice the cost. Others less fortunate will find it a major burden.
The other social cost will, be the auto related industries will cop a major hit, as it downsizes to meet the reduced demand.
I certainly think 10 years is fanciful, but time will tell, as usual.

 

[basilio]

More detail on the Rivian Pick up truck.
Absolute beast.
Closer look at Rivian’s R1T all-electric pickup truck and why I ordered it
https://electrek.co/2018/11/29/rivian-r1t-electric-pickup-truck-order/

 

[rederob]

The other elephant in the room, that no one is talking about, with this headlong rush to E.V's.
Is the depreciation cost involved, the value of the ICE vehicle will fall like a stone, much quicker than the E.V purchase cost, over the same period of time.
Some people, like ASF members, wont notice the cost. Others less fortunate will find it a major burden.
The other social cost will, be the auto related industries will cop a major hit, as it downsizes to meet the reduced demand.
I certainly think 10 years is fanciful, but time will tell, as usual.

It really depends where you get your information from as to what you see in the room.
Our next vehicle will be electric, but we are ambivalent about the model or year of purchase right now. I suspect 2023, but might hold out to 2024. If manufacturers ramp up output earlier and prices fall quickly, then 2022 is in the ballpark.
It is widely forecast that there will be a long lull in (private vehicle) ICE sales leading into a massive spike in EV sales. Savvy owners will not want to overcapitalise on a vehicle that has no resale value.
Interestingly, during this lull, quality second hand vehicles are likely to sell well because they will be very affordable to a market segment that has previously been priced out of their desired market.
My view is that the ICE/EV inflection point will be prior to 2025 because, like with smart phones, EVs offer so much more and the average buyer will not quibble about the extra thousands$$ given that over 3 years they would be wholly negated due to minimal running costs.

 

[sptrawler]

It really depends where you get your information from as to what you see in the room.
Our next vehicle will be electric, but we are ambivalent about the model or year of purchase right now. I suspect 2023, but might hold out to 2024. If manufacturers ramp up output earlier and prices fall quickly, then 2022 is in the ballpark.
It is widely forecast that there will be a long lull in (private vehicle) ICE sales leading into a massive spike in EV sales. Savvy owners will not want to overcapitalise on a vehicle that has no resale value.
Interestingly, during this lull, quality second hand vehicles are likely to sell well because they will be very affordable to a market segment that has previously been priced out of their desired market.
My view is that the ICE/EV inflection point will be prior to 2025 because, like with smart phones, EVs offer so much more and the average buyer will not quibble about the extra thousands$$ given that over 3 years they would be wholly negated due to minimal running costs.

It will be interesting how the manufacturers will maintain the margins, in the change over, manufacturing costs will drop but with it the money made from spare parts will drop.
Interesting times.

 

[qldfrog]

What i am really worry about is, as we seem to always follow the eu, the choice being mandatory, and based on the average...
Decision makers are notoriously good at having no common sense
So the average user, in the average city,etc will be ok, but if you are living in the bush, have to carry heavy load or do a lot of mileage, you will be screwed
And the government will tell people in Texas qld to use public transport etc...as they advised in rural france
As for crossing the outback in an EV...no jerrycan of batteries
But i would not mind having an ev charged by my pv, but that is on top of the ute, diesel 4wd used daily on the farm.
Let's see.in the latest renew magazine they have a young guy crossing the world in an ev.had to be towed into coober pedy

 

[SirRumpole]

, like with smart phones, EVs offer so much more and the average buyer will not quibble about the extra thousands$$ given that over 3 years they would be wholly negated due to minimal running costs.

That depends on power prices.

Once the big power companies get people hooked on EV's it's open season on motorists. Not to mention the loss of fuel excise revenue which governments will have to find somehow.

Which is why I think hybrids are a better deal. At least you have a choice and you can play off the power companies against the oil companies.

 

[rederob]

That depends on power prices.
Once the big power companies get people hooked on EV's it's open season on motorists. Not to mention the loss of fuel excise revenue which governments will have to find somehow.
Which is why I think hybrids are a better deal. At least you have a choice and you can play off the power companies against the oil companies.

The cost of generating all forms of renewables is decreasing. The infrastructure for renewables will be the additional cost.
Given that people will be charging mostly from home, overnight, the competitive nature of the market will mean that if there is price gouging it will be at the supercharging station.
I used to spend over $5000 a year on fuel so I know that if an EV were available to me then, the ICE was out cold. In "average" terms an EV will travel about 3 times further per dollar spent on fuel. Maintenance costs would be a pittance as there's not a lot to do on an EV.
And when I was clocking up the miles, it was seldom more than 300km on any given day, so range anxiety would never have been an issue.
It's true than excise revenue will decrease, and so will most speeding fines. But a flipside will be that road trauma admissions will decline significantly, so hospital costs will decline and national productivity will increase.

 

[sptrawler]

There is no doubt it is going to happen, it is just the rate of change and the amount of disruption in the process, that is the variable. IMO
It is the same as the changes happening in power generation, those with little knowledge are driving the agenda, which in most cases ends up in disaster. They want coal out by 2030, when in reality it will be about 2050. IMO

 

[sptrawler]

An interesting article on the ABC website, they talk to a person in Darwin who owns a Nissan Leaf, also Alan Fells has a few comments.
He broaches on what we were discussing yesterday:
While Dr Finkel said he could not comment on the business case for manufacturing electric cars in Australia, he said they were simpler to build than today's petrol or diesel cars.

He also said it would be "fantastic" if Australia could use its abundance of lithium to manufacture batteries in the future.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04...tralia-hydrogen-power-exports-policy/10988844

 

[qldfrog]

There is no doubt it is going to happen, it is just the rate of change and the amount of disruption in the process, that is the variable. IMO
It is the same as the changes happening in power generation, those with little knowledge are driving the agenda, which in most cases ends up in disaster. They want coal out by 2030, when in reality it will be about 2050. IMO

what I am worried about economically is the impact on the car repair maintenance and smash industries.As we go into shared and so smaller amount of electric cars with lower maintenance, self driven so less accidents, what will the shops along these industrial streets every city has do?, less tyre, repair,service, brake,etc etc, add no more taxi drivers: what will mining graduates do every down cycle, what will our indian IT specialists do when migrating to Oz?
Any job left?, and no, you do not need many programmers for these new models..
more baristas maybe...again?
or more housing regulations so that we can demolish 10y old obsolete housing to rebuilt...while saving the planet using no bags at woolies

 

[sptrawler]

what I am worried about economically is the impact on the car repair maintenance and smash industries.As we go into shared and so smaller amount of electric cars with lower maintenance, self driven so less accidents, what will the shops along these industrial streets every city has do?, less tyre, repair,service, brake,etc etc, add no more taxi drivers: what will mining graduates do every down cycle, what will our indian IT specialists do when migrating to Oz?
Any job left?, and no, you do not need many programmers for these new models..
more baristas maybe...again?
or more housing regulations so that we can demolish 10y old obsolete housing to rebuilt...while saving the planet using no bags at woolies

That is the sad reality with 'progress' and technology, the same thing happened to farriers and blacksmiths, when cars were invented.
I am noticing in a lot of the Countries I'm visiting, they are still performing a lot of the jobs that we have made redundant.
I feel a lot of these jobs will have to be re instated, to give people employment, like conductors on trains and buses, street sweepers etc.
There will be a huge change, especially regarding cars, as you say they indirectly employ a hell of a lot of people.
If you have masses of people unemployed, without goals and a sense of achievement, it is a recipe for social upheaval and a loss of fabric.
IMO it can be seen in the homeless already, there is a small step from not working, to social maladjustment, once there it is hard to turn it around. Just my opinion and many will disagree.

 

[moXJO]

But they have!

They are not up to scratch yet. I was looking into them before.
I feel the next decade will bring more options that can actually compete.

There is a range of electric tradie type utes either at market or close to being released.

Future Electric Pickup Trucks Worth Waiting For


JAN 31 2019 BY JEFF PEREZ
87

From the Rivian R1T to the promised Tesla pickup, these are the electric pickup trucks to start saving up for.
The truck wars are heating up, and manufacturers will introduce new and exciting pickups across multiple segments in the coming years. But more importantly for us in the electric car sphere, electric trucks are coming soon.
https://insideevs.com/future-electric-pickup-trucks/

These are probably the start of decent utes. But I've heard the "coming soon" line way too often.

Tesla have knocked up a concept on paper. But they are shocking when it comes to time frames and delivery.