Electric cars?

[JohnDe]

From The new Daily . Not sure how reliable the source is,

It is 13 years away before it goes into effect if the law is indeed passed.
So when will the car manufacturers cease production of ICE vehicles (or for that matter PHEV, hybrids etc).
Or will they keep producing them to sell in other countries (like USA, OZ, China or maybe African countries).
As has been remarked before, Australia really has little choice in what happens to the vehicle market, we take what we are given, not what we want.
Mick

You can scrap China from that theory. And with the worlds largest vehicle manufacturers transitioning to EV production there wont be many ICE manufacturers left. Possible a few high end luxury/sport manufacturers, and some medium level consumer ICEV manufacturing in developing countries.

​

China’s market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), comprising mainly electric and hybrid-powered vehicles, surged by 157% to a record 3,521,000 units in 2021, according to passenger car and commercial vehicle wholesale data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).​

​

Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 161% to 2,916,000 units in 2021, making China by far the world’s largest single market for these vehicles, while sales of hybrid vehicle rose by 141% to 605,000 units. Together they accounted for all of the automotive market’s near 4% growth last year, while sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles fell by over 5% to 23.9 million units – according to the association’s data. This includes a 4% decline in deliveries of ICE passenger vehicles to 18,148,000 units and an 8% drop in ICE commercial vehicles to 4,607,000 units.​

​

2021 was the fourth consecutive year of decline for ICE vehicle sales in China and it looks like this trend will continue uninterrupted, as NEVs claim an increasingly large share of the local market. For ICE vehicle sales in China, terminal decline is already well underway.​

​

NEVs driving growth in China as ICE decline continues - Just Auto

Sales of electric vehicles are surging in China, despite headwinds.

www.just-auto.com

 

[JohnDe]

 

[wayneL]

Just a bit of levity folks:

 

[Value Collector]

As with all decisions in life, you pay your money, you take your chances.
Then you have to listen endlessly, to the sad stories of those who made the wrong choice, be that ICE or E.V.
It's a bit like Beta cord or VHS, 8 Track or cassette, LPG or petrol.

Ice cars are VHS
hybrids are DVD
electrics are internet streaming.

The concept of EV’s sounds crazy to some groups, in much the same way that streaming video over the internet would have sounded in the year 2000.

But yet in 2010 Block buster video went bankrupt, and today almost everyone’s TVs are connected to the internet, even my 86 year old grandmothers smart TV is connected to the internet.

Can you imagine how many reason people would have given in 2000 as to why Internet streamed TV wouldn’t be a thing, yet here we are all looking back in disbelief that we used to have to rent videos from block buster in the first place.

To me installing vehicles chargers and selling ev’s is a way smaller change than moving from VHS rentals to video streaming.

 

[qldfrog]

Anyone looked at plugged in hybrid especially mg one?
I think PI hybrid would be ideal for us.
Just found https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-advice/phev-on-sale-in-australia

 

[wayneL]

Ice cars are VHS
hybrids are DVD
electrics are internet streaming.

The concept of EV’s sounds crazy to some groups, in much the same way that streaming video over the internet would have sounded in the year 2000.

But yet in 2010 Block buster video went bankrupt, and today almost everyone’s TVs are connected to the internet, even my 86 year old grandmothers smart TV is connected to the internet.

Can you imagine how many reason people would have given in 2000 as to why Internet streamed TV wouldn’t be a thing, yet here we are all looking back in disbelief that we used to have to rent videos from block buster in the first place.

To me installing vehicles chargers and selling ev’s is a way smaller change than moving from VHS rentals to video streaming.

I'll believe that when I see the schleppers driving a clapped out EV to go pick up their dole. (Who all have streaming video)

 

[sptrawler]

Anyone looked at plugged in hybrid especially mg one?
I think PI hybrid would be ideal for us.
Just found https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-advice/phev-on-sale-in-australia

I looked into them, but the numbers didn't stack up, the electric range was limited, the new price wasn't much different to pure EV, the Govt were putting 2c/km charge on them, servicing costs were higher, so I went pure EV.
The best PHEV on paper seemed to be the Mitsubishi Outlander, the new one sounds as though it will be quite expensive, the superceded one was about $50-55k. The MG was about $50k.
I liked the idea of PHEV but for me the option of having the ICE backup for long distances, wasn't essential, now the son has moved closer to where we live.

 

[mullokintyre]

I looked into them, but the numbers didn't stack up, the electric range was limited, the new price wasn't much different to pure EV, the Govt were putting 2c/km charge on them, servicing costs were higher, so I went pure EV.
The best PHEV on paper seemed to be the Mitsubishi Outlander, the new one sounds as though it will be quite expensive, the superceded one was about $50-55k. The MG was about $50k.
I liked the idea of PHEV but for me the option of having the ICE backup for long distances, wasn't essential, now the son has moved closer to where we live.

I talked to a number of PHEv owners here in the sticks, and the general consensus was that the ICE was running 90% of the time.
On the freeway at 110 they tended to run out of Ev power very quickly and the iCE came on and stayed on.
Fine for short trips at 60 l around town, but not for sustained regional driving.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

I'll believe that when I see the schleppers driving a clapped out EV to go pick up their dole. (Who all have streaming video)

 

[JohnDe]

I looked into them, but the numbers didn't stack up, the electric range was limited, the new price wasn't much different to pure EV, the Govt were putting 2c/km charge on them, servicing costs were higher, so I went pure EV.
The best PHEV on paper seemed to be the Mitsubishi Outlander, the new one sounds as though it will be quite expensive, the superceded one was about $50-55k. The MG was about $50k.
I liked the idea of PHEV but for me the option of having the ICE backup for long distances, wasn't essential, now the son has moved closer to where we live.

I no longer see the reasoning for Hybrids. Their electric range is limited by the battery size, which makes them more suited for local driving, the petrol engine ensures that long distance driving is possible. Th problem with those two packages in one car is that if you mainly drive local then you might as well just get an EV, if you mainly drive long distance then get an ICE, if you do a combination of both get a proven long distance EV.

The company claims 84 kilometres of all-electric driving range, according to Australia's notoriously-lenient ADR81/02 test protocols 2022 Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-in Hybrid

 

[Value Collector]

I'll believe that when I see the schleppers driving a clapped out EV to go pick up their dole. (Who all have streaming video)

Haha, considering they probably all drive bombed out used cars, I wouldn’t use them as the leading indicator, naturally they will be the last group to get them.

I am sure they weren’t the first group to get smart TV’s or internet connections either.

If you were waiting for the “schleppers” to get smart TV’s and Netflix to be your indicator to sell your Blockbuster shares, I think you would have still been holding your Block Buster shares at the 2010 bankruptcy hearings ?.

 

[Value Collector]

I talked to a number of PHEv owners here in the sticks, and the general consensus was that the ICE was running 90% of the time.
On the freeway at 110 they tended to run out of Ev power very quickly and the iCE came on and stayed on.
Fine for short trips at 60 l around town, but not for sustained regional driving.
Mick

Even on the freeway it’s still flicking between the two and sometimes using both.

Eg. There petrol engine might be running, but not revving as hard as it would be in a pure ice, because the two can be working together.

 

[wayneL]

Haha, considering they probably all drive bombed out used cars, I wouldn’t use them as the leading indicator.

I am sure they weren’t the first group to get smart TV’s or internet connections either.

If you were waiting for the “schleppers” to smart TV’s and Netflix to be your indicator to sell your Blockbuster shares, I think you would have still been holding your Block Buster shares at the 2010 bankruptcy hearings ?.

Ummm, extrapolating my investment decisions based on my comments above is a bit if a stretch there, old bean.

My point is that I have trouble seeing them being viable at the low end of the market, new, or second hand, unless they they depreciate so violently that the schleps can buy them for next to nothing and just dump them in the bush when there are significant repair costs or battery replacement etc.

Who knows, maybe that's how it will turn out.

 

[Value Collector]

Ummm, extrapolating my investment decisions based on my comments above is a bit if a stretch there, old bean.

My point is that I have trouble seeing them being viable at the low end of the market, new, or second hand, unless they they depreciate so violently that the schleps can buy them for next to nothing and just dump them in the bush when there are significant repair costs or battery replacement etc.

Who knows, maybe that's how it will turn out.

The old batteries will be valuable as scrap metal as will be the electric motors so I doubt people will be dumping them in the bush.

But the vehicles that populate the used car market are simply a result of the vehicles that people by new, the more New evs that get sold the more evs will end up in the used car market.

Also, the newer Tesla batteries are predicted to last more than the life of the car, even the exisiting ones have a life of over 350,000 km which most Aussie cars hit the scrap heap before that anyway.

 

[rederob]

The old batteries will be valuable as scrap metal as will be the electric motors so I doubt people will be dumping them in the bush.

But the vehicles that populate the used car market are simply a result of the vehicles that people by new, the more New evs that get sold the more evs will end up in the used car market.

Also, the newer Tesla batteries are predicted to last more than the life of the car, even the exisiting ones have a life of over 350,000 km which most Aussie cars hit the scrap heap before that anyway.

The other consideration is that not all markets are the same, so China and India will be producing mini EVs for under AU$10k.
Indonesia is now getting the Wuling "Air" which is even smaller that the best selling EV model in Asia.


I watched a Chinese automaker being interviewed last week and he said the switch to all EVs made sense because even in China they could sell every EV that came off their production line. And in some cases their advance order books meant that that preproduction numbers already carried them into 2023. Last count BYD had over 500K preorders on their full range of models.

One thing the EV market will do, once reasonable numbers are available, is collapse second hand ICEV prices so that decent cars will be stocking car yards at very affordable prices. And until EV availability is much better, used EV will continue to be sold nearer their original price and occasionally at a premium.

The concept of an old banger will be a Merc, Porsche or Audi as the new status symbols will often begin with a "T".

 

[mullokintyre]

The UK authorities have gone one better than the European parliament and planned to ban new sales of ICE cars by 2030,
From BBC News

New cars and vans powered wholly by petrol and diesel will not be sold in the UK from 2030, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
But some hybrids would still be allowed, he confirmed.
It is part of what Mr Johnson calls a "green industrial revolution" to tackle climate change and create jobs in industries such as nuclear energy.
Critics say the £4bn allocated to implement the 10-point plan is far too small for the scale of the challenge.
The total amount of new money announced in the package is a 25th of the projected £100bn cost of high-speed rail, HS2.

Hows that ole song go, anything you can do, I can do better.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

The other consideration is that not all markets are the same, so China and India will be producing mini EVs for under AU$10k.
Indonesia is now getting the Wuling "Air" which is even smaller that the best selling EV model in Asia.
View attachment 142765

I watched a Chinese automaker being interviewed last week and he said the switch to all EVs made sense because even in China they could sell every EV that came off their production line. And in some cases their advance order books meant that that preproduction numbers already carried them into 2023. Last count BYD had over 500K preorders on their full range of models.

One thing the EV market will do, once reasonable numbers are available, is collapse second hand ICEV prices so that decent cars will be stocking car yards at very affordable prices. And until EV availability is much better, used EV will continue to be sold nearer their original price and occasionally at a premium.

The concept of an old banger will be a Merc, Porsche or Audi as the new status symbols will often begin with a "T".

I think that is a very good point about the price of evs forcing the price of Second hand ICE down, the only thing that might stop that from happening is the “Osborne effect”

 

[JohnDe]

My point is that I have trouble seeing them being viable at the low end of the market, new, or second hand, unless they they depreciate so violently that the schleps can buy them for next to nothing and just dump them in the bush when there are significant repair costs or battery replacement etc.

Who knows, maybe that's how it will turn out.

Some people seem to be salivating at the prospect of cheap Chineses cars coming to our market, I am not. Maybe because I've been involved in the market for 30 odd year and see a lot more than most, and know that cheap does not usually go together with quality and safety.

CHEAP AND UNSAFE EV SETS BACK THE IMAGE OF CHINESE CARS IN EUROPE BY A DECADE

The history of Chinese cars in Europe is not without its bumps in the road, most notably in terms of their safety record. And Germany’s automobile club ADAC has been on the forefront of making sure consumers are being made aware of what they’re getting into. Who doesn’t remember the shocking images of the Jiangling Landwind crash test the ADAC carried out in 2005 or that of the Brilliance BS6 two years later? Both cars had a short-lived career in Europe as buyers who initially had been attracted by the seemingly great value for money, were put off by fears of their safety after a possible crash.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, manufacturing partner of both Volkswagen and General Motors in China, has been exporting cars under its MG brand to the United Kingdom since 2009 but waited until 2019 to expand its operations to mainland Europe, with its all-electric crossover MG ZS. Other Chinese startups and established manufacturers have launched ambitious plans to storm the European EV market with very modern vehicles that can easily compete with those of the major European brands in terms of design, technology and safety. This way, brands like Nio, Aiways and Xpeng (pictured) are hoping to change the image of Chinese cars in the eyes of European consumers and become world players. However, a small and rather unknown EV maker may have just set back those dreams by proving not all manufacturers are up to the challenge.

The Suda SA01 EV has just launched in Germany at a price of just over € 10,000 after state subsidies for electric vehicles, which makes it one of the cheapest vehicles currently on the market, and the ADAC has slammed the car for major deficits in terms of quality and driving characteristics as well as the absence of passive safety systems. The SA01 has no airbags, no Electronic Stability Program (ESP), no emergency brakes or lane departure warning systems and not even seat belt tensioners.


The German automobile club is critical of how a vehicle that doesn’t meet modern safety standards is even allowed to be sold in the European Union. A loophole in the rules allows the Suda SA01 to be sold in the EU because it received its type approval as part of a small series license, which is intended to give small manufacturers like Morgan and Donkervoort a break from having to develop costly custom safety systems and following expensive testing procedures for vehicles that sell fewer than 1,000 units in Europe, while expecting them to take their own responsibility in terms of safety standards. As long as Suda sells just a small batch of the SA01 in Europe (200 units were shipped initially), it doesn’t need to meet modern safety standards. And the downside of that quickly becomes apparent when the ADAC puts the small Chinese EV to the test. It turns out to be a major safety risk.



“Basic safety equipment is completely missing, which becomes particularly evident in the crash test of an offset frontal collision at 64 km/h (40 mph). During this test, the driver’s head and chest hit the steering wheel hard, which in a real world crash would lead to very serious injuries. The passenger would suffer injuries to their knees and legs because of inadequate structural integrities in the dashboard. There are no driver or passenger front airbags nor side airbags in the seats, while the non-existent seat belt tensioners also had a negative impact.”
The pictures after the crash speak for themselves: the steering wheel has moved far into the cabin and the passenger cell has buckled in such a way that the driver’s door can no longer be opened. After the ADAC crash test, the fire brigade has to lend a hand to rescue occupants. In addition, the Suda does not have any protective devices with which the rescue workers can switch off the EV’s high-voltage system, which means rescue workers are at risk of electric shock. Both the hard to open doors and the risk of electric shock result in longer response times for emergency teams to rescue the occupants after a crash.

Even in braking and evasive tests, the Suda has no chance compared to other modern cars. From about 70 km/h (44 mph) the vehicle skidded out of control during the evasive test and could no longer be kept in check by the driver because it lacks an ESP system. Most modern cars with this technology will pass the test with over 90 km/h (56 mph) without breaking a sweat. The brake pedal lacks feedback and the very long braking distance of 42 meters on average from 100 km/h to full stop also does not exactly contribute to its safety record.
In terms of EV charging capabilities, the Suda can’t keep up with current rivals either. A promised range of around 200 km on a single charge is adequate, but the the lack of fast charging capabilities reduce its usability in real life. The only positive remark ADAC could come up with is that the SA01 has ample room for luggage and passengers and the vehicle is easy to operate.

“The manufacturer abuses the simplified type approval for small series to bring a vehicle to the market that has clear deficits in active and passive safety. From our point of view, manufacturers of small-series vehicles should always benchmark themselves to current standards of industry. If the manufacturer doesn’t take responsibility for the safety of its vehicles, we urgently encourage the legislator to close this legal loophole by improving the type approval process. And finally we consider state subsidies of € 9,000 for a vehicle at Suda’s safety level to be an undesirable use of government funds.” Not only the automobile club and European consumers should be worried that a vehicle that doesn’t meet modern safety standards can so easily be sold. Suda also does other Chinese manufacturers a disservice, as this ADAC report could set back the image of Chinese cars by a decade. The video of the Suda’s crash test shows its safety score has not improved on that of the Landwind or the BS6 more than 10 years ago. Nio, Xpeng, Aiways and other brands will now have to work twice as hard to convince European car buyers that not all Chinese cars are created equal and that they in fact are up to standards.

 

[sptrawler]

Anyone looked at plugged in hybrid especially mg one?
I think PI hybrid would be ideal for us.
Just found https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-advice/phev-on-sale-in-australia

I think the normal hybrid, rather than the PI might suit a lot of people, especially if they dont have solar panels, the initial purchase price is only about $2k more than the ICE and the fuel economy improvement is noticable.

 

[sptrawler]

MG stepping up the ante.

2023 MG 4 electric car revealed as China's Mulan – UPDATE

With a four-second 0-100km/h time, Chinese brand MG's new electric hatchback could give drivers of mid-range Teslas a run for their money... for far less

www.drive.com.au

With a four-second 0-100km/h time, Chinese brand MG's new electric hatchback could give drivers of mid-range Teslas a run for their money... for far less money.