Electric cars?

[sptrawler]

Seems I stirred the pot with this one!

For an investing forum, seems members are quite left wing on this.

I'll be the token libertarian and say that I think almost everything should be user pays and also pays for the consequences of not paying if they happen to find themselves in a pinch needing a service they opted out of.

I'm seriously considering moving to being very nearly off-grid sometime in the future.

Research that off grid move very well IMO, because I'm sure eventually electricity will become like water and sewage, if it goes past your place you pay for it.
A rural block may be the goto answer IMO.

Anyway back on subject, ICE vehicles IMO will follow this articles prediction.
In a lot of ways, what is happening to coal fired power stations will happen to ICE vehicles, technology will make ICE vehicles obsolete, so the constant bashing over the head by vested interests isn't really required.
It will be a natural progression, as with coal shutting down.

Why petrol and diesel cars may soon be too costly to buy and maintain

Leading analyst says the price of electric vehicles will fall to around $5,000 or below, in the not too distant future, making petrol and diesel cars too costly to buy and maintain.

thedriven.io

Already Toyota is starting to up the price of new ICE vehicles, it makes more sense than trying to reduce your profit margin on the BEV or force taxpayers to subsidies them, I wonder how long before the other manufacturers follow suit.
IMO upping the price of ICE vehicles will result in a better outcome, than taxpayer funded incentives.
As you say @over9k user pays, if you want to buy the BEV why should the taxpayer help fund it, when the manufacturer can just say well it's your choice here is the ICE, or the BEV similar price.
if the manufacturers adopt that attitude, I bet the governments would readily supply the charging network at taxpayers expense, it is a win/ win for the taxpayer IMO.

 

[over9k]

As you say @over9k user pays, if you want to buy the BEV why should the taxpayer help fund it, when the manufacturer can just say well it's your choice here is the ICE, or the BEV similar price.
if the manufacturers adopt that attitude, I bet the governments would readily supply the charging network at taxpayers expense, it is a win/ win for the taxpayer IMO.

Yeah we've been having this conversation about the grid upgrades etc for a while.

As things currently sit, a standard 10 or 15 amp 240v circuit just isn't fast enough charge really. So it's either bigger batteries in the cars, a fast-charge battery in the house that can just dump into the car when plugged in and then charges 24/7 (until full) when unplugged, or upgrading the grid.

At the moment, seems like the simplest thing to do would be to get 3 phase power installed, which is user-pays.

About the only argument I can see for government subsidies of ev's and things related to ev's (electricity grid upgrade, road building and maintenance etc etc) is externalities like smog.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, S.A just cracked a milestone where they actually needed to turn a few solar panels off:

Authorities remotely switch off thousands of SA home solar panels due to lack of power grid demand

Energy authorities in SA use new solar switch-off powers for the first time, remotely cutting output from thousands of rooftop units during "near-record minimum demand" to maintain the stability of the grid.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

About the only argument I can see for government subsidies of ev's and things related to ev's (electricity grid upgrade, road building and maintenance etc etc) is externalities like smog.

Smog, acid rain, climate change, the cost of cleaning windows, a decent portion of the entire military budget for the past 75 years, however many cases of cancer and heart disease....

Plus no longer the case but historically add lead pollution of literally the entire planet to that list. The stuff turned up at the North Pole and in remote wilderness areas with no cities or even towns upwind for a very long distance. Literally the entire planet ended up being contaminated thanks to tetraethyllead, the dangers of which were known right from the very beginning and warned against by many.

There's a lot of costs associated with the internal combustion engine.

Realistically though, they'll remain common through to at least the 2040's in practice given the fleet turnover time isn't likely to change all that much (indeed the logistics pretty much preclude it doing so).

 

[Smurf1976]

Yeah we've been having this conversation about the grid upgrades etc for a while.

A single EV, driven 12,500 km a year will add 30 - 60% to an average household's electricity consumption (which varies between states hence the range).

Grid electricity isn't going out of business anytime soon. Anyone expecting that's in for a big surprise.

In terms of charging though, it hugely depends on the circumstances of use. Big difference between someone who drives the car 30km a day and parks it for 12 hours in a garage versus someone who drives 200km a day and parks on the street. etc.

 

[over9k]

Smog, acid rain, climate change, the cost of cleaning windows, a decent portion of the entire military budget for the past 75 years, however many cases of cancer and heart disease....

Plus no longer the case but historically add lead pollution of literally the entire planet to that list. The stuff turned up at the North Pole and in remote wilderness areas with no cities or even towns upwind for a very long distance. Literally the entire planet's contaminated thanks to tetraethyllead, the dangers of which were known right from the very beginning and warned against by many.

There's a lot of costs associated with the internal combustion engine.

Of course - hence my choice of words saying "like" smog rather than specifically smog.

I don't envy the poor consultant that has to do the cost/benefit number crunching of trying to price everything you've mentioned though.


I would imagine the best way to do it would be to try a few different subsidy levels and see where you get the highest marginal benefit (ev uptake?) per $ of subsidy and pick that as your number. Assuming you get that right, the next question becomes where you actually get the subsidy money from.

Fuel excise (on account of ICE engines polluting) seems like a very obvious choice. Disincentive (raise the cost of) polluting on one hand whilst incentivising (reducing the cost of) not doing it on the other. Classic carrot and stick approach.


This feels good. I haven't put my microeconomics hat on in a long time.

 

[Smurf1976]

hence my choice of words saying "like" smog rather than specifically smog

My bad, I didn't read it that way.....

Meanwhile, S.A just cracked a milestone where they actually needed to turn a few solar panels off:

It's the first time the system to force small scale (eg household) systems to cut output has been used but curtailment of large scale solar (and wind) generation has become somewhat common in SA over the past couple of years. It's happened to at least some extent on 4 of the past 7 days.

It's also happening from time to time in Victoria and south-west WA. In all cases it's a situation most likely to occur during mild weather, when the sky's reasonably clear and there's some wind blowing and from mid-morning to mid-afternoon, say 10am to 3pm or thereabouts.

If someone was so inclined and their EV is parked during those times, well charging it then would result in zero increased CO2 emissions.

Now I fully acknowledge that most people aren't going to actually do that, but point is that it's possible, we're at a point where there are occasions now where using additional electricity adds zero emissions. Not consistently but it does happen. Progress is being made.

Average emissions intensity in the National Electricity Market is slowly but surely coming down. It's about 700kg of CO2 per MWh now, down from roughly 920 kg in 2015. Some may want it to come down faster, but it's coming down as such yes.

Meanwhile on the other side of the world, there's some unhappiness about EV subsidies being cut back it seems:

Backlash grows against cut to electric car grants

A government decision to reduce subsidies is criticised by the motor industry and UK businesses.

www.bbc.com

 

[Value Collector]

A single EV, driven 12,500 km a year will add 30 - 60% to an average household's electricity consumption (which varies between states hence the range).

Grid electricity isn't going out of business anytime soon. Anyone expecting that's in for a big surprise.

In terms of charging though, it hugely depends on the circumstances of use. Big difference between someone who drives the car 30km a day and parks it for 12 hours in a garage versus someone who drives 200km a day and parks on the street. etc.

Not to mention that the grid is very useful in energy trading, eg even if you have a battery it can become full by 10.30am so being able to sell that excess electricity is very handy, especially if you are on holidays for 3 months of the year, putting your system into “holiday mode” where it puts energy back into the grid system during peak times would be good.

 

[sptrawler]

Some interesting statements in this article, as we have said previously existing auto manufacturers need to be careful how the allocate resources.

No Cookies | The Courier Mail

No Cookies

www.couriermail.com.au

From the article:
Audi, which is also owned by Porsche’s parent company Volkswagen, has committed to making no new internal combustion engines.

It will instead put all its financial and developmental resources into improving its electric set-ups.

Audi CEO Marcus Duesmann told German publication Automobilwoche that the company would instead alter existing engines to meet any new emissions guidelines.
He also said the soon to be enacted Euro 7 emissions regulations would make it extremely difficult to develop new internal combustion engines.

 

[sptrawler]

Audi, which is also owned by Porsche’s parent company Volkswagen, has committed to making no new internal combustion engines.

It will instead put all its financial and developmental resources into improving its electric set-ups.

Audi CEO Marcus Duesmann told German publication Automobilwoche that the company would instead alter existing engines to meet any new emissions guidelines.
He also said the soon to be enacted Euro 7 emissions regulations would make it extremely difficult to develop new internal combustion engines.

Don't you love it when manufacturers try to wind up public opinion, the post above says VW aren't going to do further development on ICE engines, then you read this article.

VW boss says ‘embarrassing’ rules stop cheap electric car imports

Frustrated and embarrassed, Volkswagen Australia’s chief is speaking out against state and federal governments’ failure to support electric cars.

www.smh.com.au

From the post:
Mr Bartsch said the company does not want subsidies, but a firm signal from the federal government that it wants to cut carbon emissions from the transport sector by a set amount by 2030, and planning guidelines from state governments to ensure all new public buildings come with charging stations.
Further, the company wants Australia to introduce emissions standards because new Volkswagen engines cannot run on dirtier Australian fuel.

Until such laws are introduced, manufacturers will continue dumping older and dirtier models on the Australian market, said Mr Bartsch.
Because the massive cost of development of those models has already been realised over years of production, the glut of older vehicles makes it impossible for new cleaner models to compete in the market without government regulation of emissions, he said.
“The Australian consumer is being forced into buying low tech cars that have high CO2 output when the options are there to get the high tech engines with lower CO2 output, running on lower sulfur fuel,” he said.

As they aren't developing new motors, I guess we will get the old ones anyway.

 

[over9k]

 

[moXJO]

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/03/...wo-classic-cars-to-electric-all-on-their-own/


I wouldn't mind giving it a crack.

https://ev4unow.com/products/

 

[sptrawler]

Wont be long before you will be able to sell some of your BEV capacity to the grid.

AGL seals tech deal with Britain’s OVO as energy shake-up looms

The new partnership, which will adapt OVO’s tech platform for the Australian market, comes as AGL prepares to brief shareholders about how it will reshape its business as the rise of renewable energy weighs on power prices.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
AGL and OVO, which is Britain’s third-largest energy provider, said Australia had one of the world’s highest levels of rooftop solar generation. Kaluza’s software would help address grid challenges by “intelligently shifting” device charging to times of lower demand. It could also present customers with financial incentives to dispatch energy from their batteries and electric cars when needed.

 

[basilio]

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/03/...wo-classic-cars-to-electric-all-on-their-own/


I wouldn't mind giving it a crack.

https://ev4unow.com/products/

I can see a lot of people wanting to drive their old special car but with a quiet, powerful maintenance free electric motor. There is already a market at the very top end. Be interesting to see if it extends further down.

Bask in the majesty of this £500k fully-electric Rolls-Royce

Lunaz has unveiled its 1961 Phantom V electric restoration, and goodness, it’s a Thing

www.topgear.com

Lunaz Electric Vehicle - Lunaz

Built by this generation. Electrified for the next.We enhance and electrify the world's most beautiful cars, propelling their legacies

lunaz.design

 

[sptrawler]

New entrant to the market.

MSN

From the article:
Fisker did, however, take a swipe at his Californian rival over its decision to build up its own Supercharger network and socket design.

“I don’t think it would be an advantage for the customer if every car maker makes their own charging station and own plug like Tesla has done because it becomes annoying for the consumer. Ultimately, the consumer needs to be able to go to any charging station – just like you would go to a gas station – and charge your car.”

Fisker confirmed the Ocean will be fitted with a CCS plug and will be able to accept a charging speed that adds 100 miles of range within 10 minutes.

He got that right.

 

[sptrawler]

It will be interesting to follow the data obtained from the two hydrogen refueling plants, one in Melbourne and one in Canberra, they are small and the fleet is miniscule but some trends should develop regarding problems etc.

Toyota Opens Victoria's First Hydrogen Production And Storage Facility

The solar-powered site can produce approximately 80kg of hydrogen per day, according to Toyota.

www.drive.com.au

 

[over9k]

Yeah, standardise them like fuel pumps, have charging stations exactly like servo's now, the end.

Just gotta build the infrastructure.


To be fair, you can "refill" an electric car at home which you cannot do with an ICE car and that's a big, BIG change in how we use them. I just can't see a lot of charging stations actually being necessary for that reason.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah, standardise them like fuel pumps, have charging stations exactly like servo's now, the end.

Just gotta build the infrastructure.


To be fair, you can "refill" an electric car at home which you cannot do with an ICE car and that's a big, BIG change in how we use them. I just can't see a lot of charging stations actually being necessary for that reason.

All valid points, the charging will have to be standardised when the uptake accelerates, which I think will be sooner than later.
As the uptake accelerates, the infrastructure will be rolled out to meet demand IMO.

Home charging will be offered by the homeowners electricity provider IMO, one it will lock in customers to a provider as the BEV charger and or the home battery storage will be required by the provider and the homeowner will pay for it in installments as per phone plans.

As you say most will charge at home, privately owned charging infrastructure IMO will be installed by the States and or the fuel companies as they will want to change from fossil fuel supply to EV charging. If they don't there will be a lot of fuel stations with no customers.
All just my thoughts.

 

[over9k]

Fuel stations aren't disappearing any time soon. It will be a LONG time before they start getting converted into something else.

 

[Value Collector]

Fuel stations aren't disappearing any time soon. It will be a LONG time before they start getting converted into something else.

There will definitely be less charging stations needed than current petrol stations due to home charging, and competition from charging locations at things like shopping centres and office car parks.

Petrol stations have a limited life due to the cost of replacing or refurbishing their underground tanks, as the tanks meet their expiry date, owners will be faced with either removing the petrol pumps and focusing electric charging and convenience store, or paying out a huge sum to refurb tanks to compete for a shrinking market of petrol.

the petrol stations that will survive a switch to electric charging best, will be the ones along road trip routes that have good offerings for food and toilets, and become destinations road trippers look forward to stopping at.

the towns that have several petrol stations that exist just to serve locals could easily see most petrol stations disappear, leaving only the one of two that are most convenient with the highest non fuel sales.