Electric cars?

[over9k]

So now all we need is for a way for the grid to communicate with the car & we're golden.

I hear there's this thing called the "internet" which might be a way to do it.

 

[Smurf1976]

irstly, that this number-crunching you've listed, no matter who it's from or what it tells you, has a tremendous amount of utterly unknowable assumptions built in. How do you know how the market's going to react to a change in price before you change the price? You can't. Ergo, no matter what something like this says, it's BS.

Agreed. There's a good reason why quite a few generation and retail companies, including those which are ASX listed and run to profit shareholders, have offered consumers heavily discounted home batteries on the condition that the company can monitor them.

Everyone accepts that theory and practice may well be different. So putting real batteries in real homes and seeing what actually happens is the way to find out for certain. In order to get that done before the idea becomes mainstream, and to know who's doing it, various companies and governments have had to spend some money.

Whilst that's for home batteries not EV's, the same basic issues apply. There's theory and there's practice. Hence just about every relevant company has at least some EV's in their own company car fleet, there's a conscious effort via retail plans etc to identify which customers have an EV and see how that affects their consumption in practice and so on.

The relevant companies all have their own experts both economic and technical but everyone understands that practice may well be different to theory and that identifying what consumers actually do under a given set of circumstances is important.

Same applies to any new technology, practice often differs from theory. As just one random example of that, pretty much nobody would have predicted 30+ years ago that a DJ would turn up carrying a laptop computer but no records. There are countless such examples - the way a new technology is used in practice often isn't what most expected.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I still believe that Electric cars will be superseded by some other form of clean transport. The take-up from concept to the present small percentage of vehicles reminds me of steam being unable to supersede horses. The lag time to general uptake will be way too long for electric.

Something else will replace the internal combustion engine as the latter did horses. And all the electric car companies will disappear.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

trawler - what kind of bump in off-peak electricity usage (let's go really off peak here, like between midnight & 6am) could we have before we need to start upgrading the grid and/or stations?

as far as I'm aware, increases in off peak change absolutely nothing?

Smurf could give you exact figures, but when I was working, we had to take units off overnight and back on again for the morning load.
So as you say, it would have no effect IMO, it would actually help the system, as taking steam units off and on is inefficient and also causes more wear and tear.
The big issue as smurf has said, is the excess of generation during the middle of the day, when solar is really pumping.
The problem with electric cars in Australia at the moment IMO, apart from purchase cost and lack of charging infrastructure, is people tend to use their cars during the day.
This has been a problem for years in Australia, millions of cars on crowded roads, with one person in each.
If the car could be left at home charging during the day, then discharging a percentage over the evening peak, so there is still enough for the next day if it is required to be used.
Then the system could maybe designed to accommodate it, e.g I'm retired so I really only have a car for convenience, so I can use public transport or a pushbike, so I may elect to allow the car to be discharged to 50% capacity.
Someone else who may need their car available, may elect not to allocate any to the grid, I'm sure the technology is already available to do this, so it is just a matter of time before it is introduced.
We are at the very beginning of some very big changes and it all has to balance, when fossil fuel no longer is used in power generation.
Overnight will be using storage, so there probably would be a penalty for charging the car, as I said lots of changes coming that will take many steps.
I would be surprised if many people have a car in 50 years time, my guess would be autonomous ride share vehicles and public transport, especially in cities.

 

[Smurf1976]

I still believe that Electric cars will be superseded by some other form of clean transport. The take-up from concept to the present small percentage of vehicles reminds me of steam being unable to supersede horses. The lag time to general uptake will be way too long for electric.

I'm unconvinced but I certainly acknowledge that a solution other than electric could end up being the one adopted.

Hydrogen, synthetic fuels, whatever. There's a lot of sharp minds working on it etc.

Also it's possible we could see a combination. Eg what's used for buses might end up being completely different technology to what's used in cars for example. With a bus you can fit things under the floor or on the roof that you can't really do with a car in terms of physical space etc.

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf could give you exact figures, but when I was working, we had to take units off overnight and back on again for the morning load.
So as you say, it would have no effect IMO, it would actually help the system, as taking steam units off and on is inefficient and also causes more wear and tear.
The big issue as smurf has said, is the excess of generation during the middle of the day, when solar is really pumping.

A picture paints a thousand words as they say.

SA is furthest down the track so that's the state I've picked, no other reason.

Yellow = solar
Green = wind
Orange = gas
Red = liquid fuels (diesel etc)
Purple = import from Victoria
Anything below the zero line = export from SA to Victoria

Data resolution is 30 minutes. So 48 data points per day.

This is for the past 3 days to now:

 

[SirRumpole]

Smurf could give you exact figures, but when I was working, we had to take units off overnight and back on again for the morning load.
So as you say, it would have no effect IMO, it would actually help the system, as taking steam units off and on is inefficient and also causes more wear and tear.
The big issue as smurf has said, is the excess of generation during the middle of the day, when solar is really pumping.
The problem with electric cars in Australia at the moment IMO, apart from purchase cost and lack of charging infrastructure, is people tend to use their cars during the day.
This has been a problem for years in Australia, millions of cars on crowded roads, with one person in each.
If the car could be left at home charging during the day, then discharging a percentage over the evening peak, so there is still enough for the next day if it is required to be used.
Then the system could maybe designed to accommodate it, e.g I'm retired so I really only have a car for convenience, so I can use public transport or a pushbike, so I may elect to allow the car to be discharged to 50% capacity.
Someone else who may need their car available, may elect not to allocate any to the grid, I'm sure the technology is already available to do this, so it is just a matter of time before it is introduced.
We are at the very beginning of some very big changes and it all has to balance, when fossil fuel no longer is used in power generation.
Overnight will be using storage, so there probably would be a penalty for charging the car, as I said lots of changes coming that will take many steps.
I would be surprised if many people have a car in 50 years time, my guess would be autonomous ride share vehicles and public transport, especially in cities.

I would have thought that normal car usage is drive to work, park, then drive home in the afternoon. So if people could charge during the day, like in the carpark then that would balance the load when solar output is going to waste.

Rainy days would be the problem though.

 

[Smurf1976]

Here are some for other states:

Black = coal
Orange = gas
Blue = hydro
Red = oil-based fuels
Green = wind
Yellow = solar
Purple = import from other states
Below the zero line = export to other states

Note that Queensland data excludes the Mt Isa region which has its own completely separate power system.

Data for all states excludes small remote towns with their own generators etc.

 

[sptrawler]

I would have thought that normal car usage is drive to work, park, then drive home in the afternoon. So if people could charge during the day, like in the carpark then that would balance the load when solar output is going to waste.

Rainy days would be the problem though.

Yes for sure where that is available, like I said there will be lots of changes and ideas, the trick is to capture the excess renewable generation and feed it back in when there is no renewable generation.
Until that can be done reliably, for an extended time period of no or limited renewable generation, some form of at call backup will still be required.

 

[sptrawler]

One thing this virus has shown, is that even with a major lockdown of people, life goes on. Those who had to travel for work, or essential services did, those who could work from home did so.
The thing I noticed was how few cars were on the roads, so if we extrapolate all this out, there is every possibility that most wont need to travel to work in 50 years.
Therefore the few that do will have vehicles, the rest will probably be easily serviced by a fleet of ride share vehicles and a 24 hour public transport service.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I would have thought that normal car usage is drive to work, park, then drive home in the afternoon. So if people could charge during the day, like in the carpark then that would balance the load when solar output is going to waste.

Rainy days would be the problem though.

Looking at the uptake of Electric vehicles in China it is split between mass (people) transport, cargo and then owner vehicles. Only 3 million vehicles in total 2018, last figures I could find. That is a minuscule uptake.

I have visited places where people work in the Arnage and they drive, park, go in to work, return to the park and drive home. They all seem so bothered it may be too much to ask them to hook up to a powerpoint.

Electric would be ideal for trams, buses, trains and trucks. Not for the individual punter.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

Looking at the uptake of Electric vehicles in China it is split between mass (people) transport, cargo and then owner vehicles. Only 3 million vehicles in total 2018, last figures I could find. That is a minuscule uptake.
I have visited places where people work in the Arnage and they drive, park, go in to work, return to the park and drive home. They all seem so bothered it may be too much to ask them to hook up to a powerpoint.
Electric would be ideal for trams, buses, trains and trucks. Not for the individual punter.
gg

Every country will be different IMO, but in Australia we are changing a lot, generation to generation.
When I was a kid in the 60's early 70's, the family had one car which dad took to work, mum walked or caught a bus and we had one family holiday a year usually with the car.
That was because dad did a 40hr week plus usually a Saturday, they couldn't afford a second car and air travel was just out working peoples reach.
By the way we lived in country towns in W.A

Then in the late 70's and 80's when I started a family, cars became cheaper the 38 week came in and wages improved, and we used the car a lot more for holidays and had several driving holidays in a year.
In the late 80's and 90's air travel started getting cheaper, but it was still cheaper to drive across Australia with a family of 6.

Now no one would drive across Australia, on the grounds of cost, it is far cheaper to fly.
So the car really is only used for local commuting, unless of course you live in the country and have to travel a long distance, to get to the shops or work.
If you lived in a city, or a major town with public transport and you worked from home, how much do you really require a car, other than for convenience?

With regard charging, I would think eventually you will just have an inductive charger in the floor of the garage and it is all done automatically. Like charging the phone.
Just a thought

 

[Value Collector]

Haha, my assumptions aren't so bad after all.

.

Your assumptions were terrible, and the fact that you can’t see that the KPMG report doesn’t at all prove your assumptions is laughable.

let me walk you through your errors and show you why they don’t line up with KPMG.

1, Your calculations were based on if we went 100% EV today in 2020 However KPMG is talking about the year 2046, that’s 26 years away, their numbers factor in growth in the market, which by itself would require expansion, so ofcourse we are going to require more capacity in the future if electrical demand in general grow with the population and we have more cars on the road.

2, Your calculations were based on just the gasoline/petrol market, KPMG is including diesel, so your gasoline only numbers are way off KPMG’s numbers.

3, I actually also think KPMG have made a similar mistake you have, by not adding back the energy savings of not having to refine oil, this could be because Australia imports more finished product these days, and also because refineries often have their own generators so their electricity usage doesn’t always come from the grid.

but either way the oil and gas that would have to flow into refineries if we were to stay petrol powered could easily be converted into electricity, it takes next to no time to installl gas and oil fired capacity.

4, the installed capacity of Personal solar Systems will naturally grow over the next 26 years and a lot of people’s charging will never even be drawn from the grid.

As I said I have to charge my car other wise the grid actually idles back my panels, but as the grid gets smarter renewables won’t be idled back.

 

[sptrawler]

I just read this, and it is another example of how changes that are happening, could be used to streamline charging of electric vehicles.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ds-book-supermarket-slot-20200715-p55c87.html
From the article:
Risk-averse shoppers will be able to monitor the foot traffic at their local supermarket or book a time slot to jump the queues as Woolworths unveils its latest measures to control the spread of COVID-19.

The same app could be used to book a charge point in the carpark, the shopping centre could have solar on the roof and it becomes another shopper reward programme.

 

[Value Collector]

I'm unconvinced but I certainly acknowledge that a solution other than electric could end up being the one adopted.

Hydrogen, synthetic fuels, whatever. There's a lot of sharp minds working on it etc.

Also it's possible we could see a combination. Eg what's used for buses might end up being completely different technology to what's used in cars for example. With a bus you can fit things under the floor or on the roof that you can't really do with a car in terms of physical space etc.

it’s possible, but what ever comes to replace EV’s has to be just as efficient as EV’s which are highly efficient while also being able to exploit as many different energy sources as the EV can.

I mean electricity is a pretty good at exploiting all the traditional energy resources, and a lot of the renewables of the future.

synthetic fuels are going to come too, but I think that’s giving to be for planes and rockets and every thing else that’s not suited to electricity.

 

[Value Collector]

Not for the individual punter.

gg

Electric cars are great, I there is no way I would even go back to a petrol car.

I have rented a few petrol cars while on holiday since I have had my Tesla and a hate it.

 

[Value Collector]

I bet the power grid could use the internet to communicate with your car somehow already. As soon as you get to your house the car autoconnects to the wifi and talks to the grid that way.

There's no way that the tech heads couldn't figure something out.

My car does exactly that, connects to WiFi when I am at home and it has its own mobile connection when I am out.

 

[Value Collector]

The more I think about it, batteries and plugging your car in at an electricity point is very 20th Century.

I'll go for a brainier solution when it does come along.

gg

you can just have a wireless charging pad in your garage if you are really against plugging in.

But I think plugging in a home and charging from solar panels on the roof is for more 21st century,

if anything 20th century is having trucks loaded with flammable liquids traversing out freeways, so we can go out of our way to bowsers, and stand there for 5 - 10mins breathing in toxic fumes while we pumps these flammable liquids, and then we drive off dumping toxic exhaust directly into our cities air.

 

[sptrawler]

Nissan to add an SUV, to join the Leaf, in its EV lineup.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/moto...v/news-story/2c810af96b4930cdc3fe5763df498b43
From the article:
As with the Nissan Leaf hatchback, the new model features “vehicle to grid” electrical hardware capable of keeping a home’s lights on during a blackout, or pumping excess energy into the grid to earn money or energy credits during periods of peak demand.

There are four power levels ranging from 160kW and 300Nm to 290kW and 600Nm, along with 65kWh or 90kWh battery packs.

That is a very good size home battery and a pretty good looking car, now about the price.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Your assumptions were terrible, and the fact that you can’t see that the KPMG report doesn’t at all prove your assumptions is laughable.

let me walk you through your errors and show you why they don’t line up with KPMG.

1, Your calculations were based on if we went 100% EV today in 2020 However KPMG is talking about the year 2046, that’s 26 years away, their numbers factor in growth in the market, which by itself would require expansion, so ofcourse we are going to require more capacity in the future if electrical demand in general grow with the population and we have more cars on the road.

2, Your calculations were based on just the gasoline/petrol market, KPMG is including diesel, so your gasoline only numbers are way off KPMG’s numbers.

3, I actually also think KPMG have made a similar mistake you have, by not adding back the energy savings of not having to refine oil, this could be because Australia imports more finished product these days, and also because refineries often have their own generators so their electricity usage doesn’t always come from the grid.

but either way the oil and gas that would have to flow into refineries if we were to stay petrol powered could easily be converted into electricity, it takes next to no time to installl gas and oil fired capacity.

4, the installed capacity of Personal solar Systems will naturally grow over the next 26 years and a lot of people’s charging will never even be drawn from the grid.

As I said I have to charge my car other wise the grid actually idles back my panels, but as the grid gets smarter renewables won’t be idled back.

My numbers were just a calculation that took me a few minutes just to get a rough idea. The KPMG analysts validated my concerns, the Australian energy peak association reviewed and endorsed it.

That puts your opinion in the nonsense category, and I am not entertaining it any longer. Enjoy your discussion with Smurf on installing the recharge stations in Adelaide.

This case is closed for me, no more of my time is going to be wasted on this thread.