ELECTIONS - Labor or Liberal

[greggy]

Yes, I agree that Kevin Rudd's similarity to John Howard, and his apparent capacity to echo John Howard's philosophies to a large degree, is allowing the electorate to have a change which they believe won't really be a change at all in terms of the good stuff. We'll see.

Spot on Julia. Both are economic and social conservatives. They agree on most issues with the major exceptions being on IR and Iraq. Mr Rudd is playing it very smart indeed. Mr Latham might well have won the last election if he hadn't scared the horses.

 

[chops_a_must]

Wow... Gillard just smashed Hockey on the 7.30 report.

 

[somesortoftrader]

Wow... Gillard just smashed Hockey on the 7.30 report.

Chops.. I think that 'smashed' is a bit of an extention, but if shes on your team pump her up!

What I want to know from Gillard is; why I cant have the right to negotiate my own wages & conditions just because I earn less than $100k. It smacks of the ALP exlcuding [from work place flexibility] the very people they are supposed to be going in to bat for!

 

[Knobby22]

Chops.. I think that 'smashed' is a bit of an extention, but if shes on your team pump her up!

What I want to know from Gillard is; why I cant have the right to negotiate my own wages & conditions just because I earn less than $100k. It smacks of the ALP exlcuding [from work place flexibility] the very people they are supposed to be going in to bat for!

You can still negotiate your wage, somesortof trader, as long as it is greater than award conditions. You could before the latest IR rules.

 

[Rafa]

why I cant have the right to negotiate my own wages & conditions just because I earn less than $100k. It smacks of the ALP exlcuding [from work place flexibility] the very people they are supposed to be going in to bat for!

this smacks of you falling hook line and sinker for the govt scare campaign!

 

[Julia]

Given the unpopularity of George W., plus the huge inconvenience and over the top security in Sydney for APEC, not to mention the cost thereof, I can't help feeling that - rather than gathering kudos for John Howard in hosting this event - all this fuss will send him even further downward in the Polls.

Just looking at GWB and JWH on television this evening, each praising the other to a quite nauseating degree, e.g. "the man of steel" stuff etc, and GWB's crappy comments to the ADF personnel when he joined them for lunch, I can feel a vote for Labor coming on!

I can't help thinking that this visit by George W. is only going to further highlight in the minds of the Australian electorate all the things they dislike about John Howard, notably the determination to stick with the US in Iraq.

 

[arminius]

im gonna make some predictions here, as the masses become more informed:

rudd to get 70% vote after preferences.

slx and gbg to skyrocket

arminius to party hard election night.

 

[explod]

Given the unpopularity of George W., plus the huge inconvenience and over the top security in Sydney for APEC, not to mention the cost thereof, I can't help feeling that - rather than gathering kudos for John Howard in hosting this event - all this fuss will send him even further downward in the Polls.

Just looking at GWB and JWH on television this evening, each praising the other to a quite nauseating degree, e.g. "the man of steel" stuff etc, and GWB's crappy comments to the ADF personnel when he joined them for lunch, I can feel a vote for Labor coming on!

I can't help thinking that this visit by George W. is only going to further highlight in the minds of the Australian electorate all the things they dislike about John Howard, notably the determination to stick with the US in Iraq.

Could not agree more. It even appeared that John Howard was looking a bit uncomfortable and tense at times. Some of the snappy comments from cabinet members also give a feeling of frustration and /Costello a look of serious (no smirk) resignation.

The alliance towards nuclear enrichment, supply and storage (not that I am against nuclear) will not go down well. Storage of anything at all toxic is met with very toxic opposition in Australia. Dubya may have stood on a big toe in this time. IMHO of course

 

[chops_a_must]

Chops.. I think that 'smashed' is a bit of an extention, but if shes on your team pump her up!

What I want to know from Gillard is; why I cant have the right to negotiate my own wages & conditions just because I earn less than $100k. It smacks of the ALP exlcuding [from work place flexibility] the very people they are supposed to be going in to bat for!

Not really.

I think it's a pretty big worry when the opposition knows more about the legislation than someone who has supposedly written parts of it.

Just like it would be if I knew more about your family than you did.

 

[numbercruncher]

Oh yeahs Johnnys Toast for sure, you only have to look at the odds at the betting shops to know that.

Everyones had a gut full of basically everything about him, all this babble about record Government surplus so they can go buy 10 billion dollars worth of Jetfighters and Help make millions of Iraqi refugees .. etc etc etc- good work Johnny - all whilst too many Australian households drown under a debt burden never before seen in our history , virtually a whole generation of young Australians given up on home ownership(you have any idea how many 20 somethings still living at home with mummy and daddy, its truly shocking), in what is the greatest economic boom Australia has ever seen.

Johnny had the chance to be remembered as the Greatest PM ever but hes squandered it to be remebered as a old fogey who cant keep pace with progess, reality or public sentiment. Reactive rather than proactive .... what a fool.

 

[arminius]

very pleased to hear you may be coming over to the dark side julia. we embrace you with a big hug.

is anyone considering marching in protest on saturday? im going down, primarily for three reasons.

v US/Oz foreign policy
US/Oz environmental policy
the fact that they are trying to muzzle the dissenters.

the world is watching, and it may be the only real chance to express our distain.

could be interesting.

 

[greggy]

im gonna make some predictions here, as the masses become more informed:

rudd to get 70% vote after preferences.

slx and gbg to skyrocket

arminius to party hard election night.

Hi arminius,

Whilst I think its more than likely that Mr Rudd (a 90% chance) will win the next election I doubt that he'll get 70% of the vote after preferences. If he did so there would be only a couple of conservatives left. Even when Australia's worst governments were thrown out (IMO Scullin, Whitlam and Fraser) no one even got close to the figures that you were talking about.
At this stage I'll tip 55% Labor to 45% Liberal which is still a massive swing to Labor on a two party preferred basis.
Considering that most Australians want our troops out of Iraq (myself included, as long as its done gradually and not in one go) Mr Howard and Mr Bush appearing to be such good buddies isn't going to go down too well with the voters.

 

[noco]

Whilst I agree with most that a change in Government is sometimes necessary,what concerns me most is that if Labour wins government, we will have coast to coast Labour Governments.
Now if we have agreement from all states,territories,federal government and the senate, what do you believe could happen to the GST? It is within the constitution on GST to allow this to happen.
Will the cash strapped states and territories pressure Kevin Rudd to increase the GST from 10% to ?????.After all they in debt to the tune of $70B.
It is very possible and most likely probable.The states will have the muscle and may very well use it on Kevin Rudd.
It is rather disconcerting when you think about it!

 

[Julia]

Whilst I agree with most that a change in Government is sometimes necessary,what concerns me most is that if Labour wins government, we will have coast to coast Labour Governments.
Now if we have agreement from all states,territories,federal government and the senate, what do you believe could happen to the GST? It is within the constitution on GST to allow this to happen.
Will the cash strapped states and territories pressure Kevin Rudd to increase the GST from 10% to ?????.After all they in debt to the tune of $70B.
It is very possible and most likely probable.The states will have the muscle and may very well use it on Kevin Rudd.
It is rather disconcerting when you think about it!

Yes, you're quite right. There is not enough focus given to his aspect.
I'm surprised the Libs have not made more of a meal of it.

The other area which has had me squirming has been the response of some of the senior Libs to the polls, i.e. Alexander Downer rabbiting on about Labor being so cocky about how they are a shoo-in etc and that they would be in for a shock. I've not actually heard any Labor candidate sounding cocky at all (though they would be more than a little entitled to), and all this sort of remark does is make Downer appear to have a limited grasp on the reality of the situation to go with his spiteful mutterings.

The other aspect I've been wondering about is whether the swing to Labor has reached the stage where it gathers momentum of its own accord, and people in some possibly subconscious way don't like to align themselves with "the losing side"? So perhaps previously undecided voters might be jumping onto the side they perceive as winners? I'd be interested to know if anyone else thinks this could be happening.

 

[Rafa]

i am amazed at the poll results, and would certainly expect them to close up come election time... one of the reasons is that the coalition are going to put in the mother of all scare campaigns...

GST rates: which Rudd has already discounted... and to be fair, i doubt that it will happen, not because I trust rudd… but IMHO raising the GST is as politically suicidal as Work Choices... i.e. loose the next election…. Regardless, there is still the issue of senate control which liberals will hold for quite a while.

(in other words, it will only succeed in scaring the ignorant)

The other issue is the experience factor... The thing is, besides Howard, the rest of his minister are a bunch of amateurs.

Downer is an amateurish minister and his comments as per Julias post above, and he pervious ones confirm the opinion that he is an impetuous spoilt rich kid... (which incidentally he is)… not a mature politician.

Costello is also a impetuous kid ... based on his tantrums on leadership... not to mention him trying to take all the credit either off Howard, or off Keating!

Minchin is on the record apologising to some institute (name escapes me)... that Work Choices is not tough enough.... now that is something that labor can use to counteract any liberal scare campaign!

And where do we even start on Abott, Hockey, Nelson and Andrews

 

[explod]

Yes, you're quite right. There is not enough focus given to his aspect.
I'm surprised the Libs have not made more of a meal of it.

The other area which has had me squirming has been the response of some of the senior Libs to the polls, i.e. Alexander Downer rabbiting on about Labor being so cocky about how they are a shoo-in etc and that they would be in for a shock. I've not actually heard any Labor candidate sounding cocky at all (though they would be more than a little entitled to), and all this sort of remark does is make Downer appear to have a limited grasp on the reality of the situation to go with his spiteful mutterings.

The other aspect I've been wondering about is whether the swing to Labor has reached the stage where it gathers momentum of its own accord, and people in some possibly subconscious way don't like to align themselves with "the losing side"? So perhaps previously undecided voters might be jumping onto the side they perceive as winners? I'd be interested to know if anyone else thinks this could be happening.

A lot of younger people for the last few years have leant towards a conservative bias but not that involved. This group is now a big part of the work force and are the new mums and dads. Some are terrified of higher interest rates and their mortgage. The other group are fed up with rising rents and want their own home. Both are being hurt by higher petrol, food and childcare. They are not bothered by Iraq or the war on terror. They do see enourmous waste in the Apec excercise and John H is coming over as a nerd.

Not hard to see why the polls are going the way they are and why they probably wont change.

Problem is a "lot of pollies think that us voters are as stupid as they are" was one member of the families comment

 

[skint]

Hi arminius,

Whilst I think its more than likely that Mr Rudd (a 90% chance) will win the next election I doubt that he'll get 70% of the vote after preferences. If he did so there would be only a couple of conservatives left. Even when Australia's worst governments were thrown out (IMO Scullin, Whitlam and Fraser) no one even got close to the figures that you were talking about.
At this stage I'll tip 55% Labor to 45% Liberal which is still a massive swing to Labor on a two party preferred basis.
Considering that most Australians want our troops out of Iraq (myself included, as long as its done gradually and not in one go) Mr Howard and Mr Bush appearing to be such good buddies isn't going to go down too well with the voters.

Hi Greggy, I can't agree with you with regard to Whitlam being "one of the worst governments". The stagflation (high unemployment/high inflation) at the time was a global phenomenon that was largely attributable to the massive oil price shocks of '72 and '74 (by memory). Globally, governments and their Reserve Bank equivalents were very poorly equipped to manage this new beast. Whitlam was probably the greatest social reformer in the decades before or since. Below is an extract from wikipedia which identifies some examples.

"Whitlam replaced Australia's adversarial divorce laws with a new, no-fault system; acted to improve the position of women and the Aboriginal minority; introduced the Trade Practices Act; slashed tariff barriers; ended conscription; introduced a universal national health insurance scheme Medibank, now known as Medicare; gave independence to Papua New Guinea; made all university education free to its recipients; introduced needs-based federal funding for private schools; established the long-awaited "third tier" in Australian radio by legislating for the establishment of community-based FM radio (commercial FM radio would be established under his successor Fraser); and established diplomatic and trade relations with the People's Republic of China."

Whilst his failings such as Timor and minister selection were problematic, the above reforms put him streets ahead of those that went immediately before and after IMHO. Without Whitlam, it may well have transpired that Australia would have contnued down the path of the US (ie. health and education for those that can afford it). Unfortunately, Howard has been fighting tooth and nail to derail these reforms, the importance of which cannot be overstated.

 

[arminius]

personally, id like to see wall to wall labor, if only to have all our politicians reading off the same sheet of music.

imagine what could be achieved!

how much time, money, and effort they spend fighting each other instead of making the most of the opportunities.
forget the scaremongering and fear for a minute. if all the states are labor, it might follow that the natural ideology of Australians IS labor, and so the insertion of a labor govt at federal level is a natural progression.

by labor ideology i mean, protect the rights of all working people, and thats most of us.
provide strong health and education, and that affects most of us,

pursue a foreign policy that is in the best interests of our country, rather than someone else's, after all, it was labor's john curtin who told churchill to go jump re: deployment of 6th div to PNG,(kokoda) rather than europe. (greece n crete)
as raf said, if they pumped up the gst or some other nasty, they'd probably get kicked out in 3 yrs time.

a bit of political harmony goes a long way.

 

[Rafa]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22373545-12377,00.html

Rudd steals limelight with Mandarin
By Doug Conway | September 06, 2007


The Prime Minister's own speech went down well.

But when Mr Rudd started addressing the leader of one quarter of the world's population, fluently in his own tongue, the effect was stunning.

There was an almost audible intake of breath among the scores of Chinese political and business heavyweights in the audience.

Many sat bolt upright in their chairs, beaming at Mr Rudd's virtuosity.

The effect could not have been greater had the family's precocious nine-year-old played a Chopin prelude perfectly for the visiting relatives after Christmas lunch.

But it worked so well because Mr Rudd was not acting like a show-off.

He spoke at length in English first, displaying a commanding grasp of China's history and development into an economic giant, before seeking his audience's indulgence to welcome President Hu personally in Chinese.

And when he did, he must have made Mr Howard squirm in his seat.

He spoke not for a few lines but for a few minutes.

It was, quite simply, a made-to-measure moment for the former diplomat.

Not only is he consistently trouncing Mr Howard in the polls, but here he was looking like a genuine statesman at an APEC forum at which Mr Howard, as host, is no doubt expecting will enhance his own international reputation.

In the audience were former Labor prime ministers Gough Whitlam, who recognised China in the 1970s when it was not politically popular to do so, and Bob Hawke, who got the APEC ball rolling in 1989.
.
.
.
He also managed to trump Mr Howard on the issue of China's "panda diplomacy".

"It was once ping pong; now pandas are making a contribution to our relationship," Mr Howard said to warm applause after President Hu announced two pandas would be sent to Adelaide Zoo.

"That has nothing to do with the fact that my foreign minister comes from South Australia," he said.

Mr Howard might have been better omitting any mention of Alexander Downer, who had earlier made a humorous quip about panda mating habits which might not translate particularly well in Beijing.

After a news conference where an expert mentioned that pandas mated only three or four times a year, Mr Downer replied: "I'm glad I wasn't born a panda. Suck on that."

Here's our 'EXPERIENCED' foreign minister downer at it again...!

 

[chops_a_must]

Here's our 'EXPERIENCED' foreign minister downer at it again...!

I'm continually amazed at Downer's gaffs, and the ignorance of Australians towards these. How can you have a foreign minister that actively insults other countries at every opportunity? Busted **** person... heh heh heh.