Mr. Trump (The Donald) To Win in 2024

[sptrawler]

This weighs up perfectly the issues in the US that allows Trump to be in power, Alan Kohler brings all the bits together nicely.

Its a good read.

The dark side to growth focus​

Wealth inequality in the US is much greater than elsewhere. In Europe and Japan, the share of national wealth controlled by the bottom 50 per cent is about 7 per cent against 2 per cent in the US, whereas the top 0.1 per cent own less than 10 per cent of national wealth in Europe and Japan vs 14 per cent in the US.

America has always tolerated greater inequality, but that was based on the idea of equal opportunity of success, and a high degree of upward social mobility. That was true in the decades after World War II, but as multiple studies have shown, the past three decades have seen a big reduction in upward mobility and an entrenching of the elite.

Another way to put it is that America is the only country that really does prioritise economic growth ahead of everything else. In other countries, Australia included, they only pretend to be doing that, while preserving a decent welfare system and progressive taxes.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-20/donald-trump-dark-side-productivity-and-growth/104830730

Meanwhile the silent majority hope for someone who can turn it around, in the last 40 years they have been sadly disappointed, so the wheel keeps turning.
Trump used the mantra to bring manufacturing home, so did Albo, lets see if they can.
The last lot didn't, that's why they are the previous Government.
The funny part is the progressive leaders get chucked out, usually because of media attacks.

 

[JohnDe]

Meanwhile the silent majority hope for someone who can turn it around, in the last 40 years they have been sadly dissapointed, so the wheel keeps turning.
Trump used the mantra to bring manufacturing home, so did Albo, lets see if they can.
The last lot didn't, that's why they are the previous Government.

Trump will, with cheap electricity, fuel and lower taxes.

Albanese won’t, because of high costs of everything and business going bust or leaving to low cost countries.

 

[JohnDe]

This weighs up perfectly the issues in the US that allows Trump to be in power, Alan Kohler brings all the bits together nicely.

Its a good read.

The dark side to growth focus​

Wealth inequality in the US is much greater than elsewhere. In Europe and Japan, the share of national wealth controlled by the bottom 50 per cent is about 7 per cent against 2 per cent in the US, whereas the top 0.1 per cent own less than 10 per cent of national wealth in Europe and Japan vs 14 per cent in the US.

America has always tolerated greater inequality, but that was based on the idea of equal opportunity of success, and a high degree of upward social mobility. That was true in the decades after World War II, but as multiple studies have shown, the past three decades have seen a big reduction in upward mobility and an entrenching of the elite.

Another way to put it is that America is the only country that really does prioritise economic growth ahead of everything else. In other countries, Australia included, they only pretend to be doing that, while preserving a decent welfare system and progressive taxes.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-20/donald-trump-dark-side-productivity-and-growth/104830730

The US has always been a country where people, if they want to, can work hard or smart and make lot of money. And it is also a country that doesn’t have a generous safety net, but they do have one.

No country has thrived and shared it wealth without strong and successful businesses.

There is a reason that millions of people want to emigrate to the US.

Outsiders always only see part of the picture.

Trump offers the best chance for business to reset​

A flurry of executive orders, more oil and less red tape; business and markets had better strap in for a wild ride as Donald Trump makes his return to the White House.
However, unlike the first time around, President Trump is a now a far, far more seasoned political operator. And while Trump’s defining approach has been about the element of surprise, he has given some clarity about the direction he is heading (although no one really knows).

For Australia, the new Trump era is the best chance to reset and force conversation around the need to revive sagging productivity. Trump’s core policies, from tackling high energy costs to cutting regulation, are pro-growth and about driving national wealth.

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Shortly before the November US election, Citi’s closely-watched global chief economist, Nathan Sheets, sat down with The Australian and attempted to sketch a road map under Trump. The first phase was to expect a period of “uncertainty and volatility” through a change of administration.

Under the switch from Biden/Harris to Trump “you’re moving from one approach to another approach. And whenever you have a swing in policy trajectory, that creates uncertainty for markets,” Sheets said at the time.

It would take “months” for markets to digest it all, he said.

That phase one has certainly arrived, as bonds, currencies and share markets around the world – including in Australia – are all attempting to make sense of Trump.

Now it comes down to how just assertive he will be on his flagship economic policies: Tariffs, deregulation and energy.

There has already been some clarity in the first few hours of Trump’s presidency through the executive orders. This includes demands of 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from February 1.

But in a big shift, Trump has seemingly pulled back from universal tariffs on everything going into the US. Instead, he wants US government agencies to analyse trade and policies with China and North American allies. Some form of China tariff threats will come.

Trump has followed through with the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to find savings. There was an executive order effectively ending work from home by demanding government workers in key agencies return to the office five days a week.

Most significant was the call of a “national energy emergency” to accelerate permits for oil and natural gas production.

He wants to fast track power projects to meet the needs of the next generation of technology in a nod to the massive amount of reliable energy needed to power artificial intelligence developments. In addition to overturning a TikTok ban, Trump is firmly onside with big tech.
Sheets and his colleague, Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin, have forensically gone through Trump’s stance and policy claims since his election win. They’ve taken an ambitious stab at how the next few years will look under Donald Trump.

As a whole, they expect Trump’s policies to “add up to a complicated mix of favourable and adverse supply shocks and demand shocks”. However, for US economic growth, these effects are likely to net each other out. Areas like tariffs will skew toward some moderate inflation pressure.

All told, US monetary policy “may need to be a bit tighter”. However, for the rest of the world the message is not as good. Trump’s tariff policies will deliver a demand shock to those countries in the firing line of tariffs, which in turn hurts global growth.

Sheets says an important framing over his outlook is we have already seen Trump in the White House.

“In his first term, Trump was assertive in his rhetoric and policies, but ultimately avoided actions that were seriously disruptive,” he says.

The economy and markets also generally performed well during his first term.

 

[sptrawler]

Trump will, with cheap electricity, fuel and lower taxes.

Albanese won’t, because of high costs of everything and business going bust or leaving to low cost countries.

That's true, I still think Albo needs another term, it will allow the reality to catch up with the rhetoric and Australia really needs that.

We have been dining on raw materials for a long time, now there is a rapid population increase and not a lot of production increase, the pie has to be cut thinner.

I don't think Dutton getting in now would help, the media would be endlessly saying if only Labor had stayed in, it would be so much better.

Best to let this play out IMO, if it works great, if it doesn't the media will be screaming for a change.

As in the U.S the Israel issue would have been making a huge amount of money, for the munitions companies, I wonder whose money is invested in those?

Now all of a sudden a change of management and the the gravy train gets closed, funny that. Not.

It will be interesting to see if Trump can get the multinationals to relocate their manufacturing, or he gets himself shot.

 

[IFocus]

 

[moXJO]

View attachment 191718

I thought you liked Albo?

 

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