ELECTIONS - Labor or Liberal

greggy · 7 July 2007

Julia said:
Greggy,

I appreciate your very balanced comments and agree with most of what you say.

However, at this stage I'm definitely going for Liberal. There's something of the "cardboard cut out" with Kevin Rudd, I have no confidence in Wayne Swan's abilities as Treasurer (also find his political arguments very unimpressive), and, although she's doing her best to cover it up at present, I think Julia Gillard will be very pro-union if they are elected, to the detriment of business. Additionally, I simply don't like the woman, especially her voice.

A good deal of the poll result at present probably just represents a certain boredom with the current government in terms of their long tenure. Damn silly reason for making a change imo.

Hi Julia,

Yet another intelligent contribution from you. I don't mind Wayne Swan, although inexperienced, but I don't particularly like Julia Gillard. I dodn't like her comments in telling business to keep out of the IR debate. Surely all community groups have the right to participate in any debate in a democracy.
In relation to inexpereince we often forget that Peter Costello was a lawyer and had no previous ministerial experience when he became Treasurer. Overall he's been a good Treasurer (the resource boom has helped), but I still think he needs to tone down his smugness. Infact, I find him similar in character to Keating, plenty of arrogance. Still undecided.
The Howard Government is looking a little tired, but when making up my mind as to whom I'm going to back, I will also be looking at the alternative government.

greggy · 7 July 2007

trinity said:
Hi Greggy,

I appreciate your inputs, thanks. I haven't made up my mind 100% yet. Only because I have been in Australia for only 3 years, so, history-wise, I say I do not know much. What is affecting my status is what is happening at the moment. Of course, it is so easy to look back and say, e.g. why didn't Howard do anything about the welfare/aboriginal issues when it has been there since who knows when. I admit, that is quite unfair for me to judge. Ok, look at this in a bigger scale, when I took my citizenship ceremonies a few months back, who among those people with me are actually discussing politics? If I am narrowminded, then I would shut the door and just do my obligation and vote. I did put out a question on in an earlier post that, how come I haven't heard from a liberal? So, I appreciate some history lessons and inputs

And yeah, I do not know much of Mr. Rudd's credentials, but I do admit he has some ideas up his sleeves, such as the "first home buyers" savings fund. I don't believe the government should just throw money around. As being here for only 3 years, I really want to stop renting and have our own property and start a family. Since moving to our current dwelling, the landlord has raised our rent 3 times

Anyways, what affected me most actually is, (this is a migrant's life I suppose) my husband, when he first came over, had to work night shifts and weekends, because he was not given any other option, and, there was definitely no additional compensation. Say, why doesn't he look for another job? He applied to over 100 companies (yeah, he kept a spreadsheet of all those applications he sent). My husband had it tough when he first came here. And, I do think a lot of it is because of the IR laws. But please do enlighten me in this respect. I do not think of the total abolition of the IR laws is the answer. But, as you have said, bad employers have taken advantage of it. What therefore is the balance?

Thanks And also, Julia, how do you rate Wayne Swan against Peter Costello?

Hi Trinity,

There are some positive aspects of the new IR Laws. I'm sure that some employers are more likely now to hire inexperienced employees knowing that its easier to lay them off should they not perform. Its good to see the unemployment rate so low. But I'm also worried about a number of employers who are not giving employees a fair deal. I'm a firm believer in working hard all day long for a fair wage. It should work both ways. There will probably be the need for further tinkering with the IR Laws.
As for the Howard Government's strong stand on Aboriginal welfare, on this matter he's moving in the right direction. For too long nothing has been done. State governments, both Liberal/National and ALP, haven't done enough. Better later than never, although I'm a little bit cynical in an election year. Its good to see Rudd supporting the PM on this matter.
My parents came here as migrants. They paid their own way here and did it tough. There was much less government support back then then there is now. Its never easy coming to a new country, but most fair dinkum Aussies welcome migrants here with open arms, especially this one.

Smurf1976 · 7 July 2007

greggy said:
Hi Trinity,

I think a combination of both would be a preferable option. Interest rates are still pretty low. I still remember people taking out mortgages back in 1989 under the Hawke Labor Government (Keating was the Treasurer) when the interest rate for home loan borrowing was 17%

...which resulted in housing being MORE affordable than at present.

Housing is very rapidly becoming the issue if media reports are any indication (which they generally are in this context). Rudd seems to be doing quite well out of it so far which does show some political ability if nothing else.

There are, of course, only two lasting solutions to the problem. (1) A wages boom that mirrors the house price boom or (2) a house price crash. Most seem to be counting on a wages boom since that's what happened in previous cycles.

I wonder how happy the business lobby is with the prospect of wages literally doubling? Probably not very.

And I wonder how happy property owners without children and investors are with the idea of a house price crash? Probably not very.

The difficult spot the Liberals now find themselves in with housing is precisely why real estate booms are something best avoided. (1) Do nothing and quite likely lose the election as growing numbers are priced out of the market and parents realise their children are in a far worse situation than they were at the same age or (2) double wages thus losing the business vote and probably wrecking the economy in the process. Lose either way...

By the way, I'm NOT anti-Liberal. Labor seems unlikely to do any better, indeed some of their plans involve making things worse. But I am anti-meddling in the markets - that's the real problem.

Julia · 7 July 2007

trinity said:
Anyways, what affected me most actually is, (this is a migrant's life I suppose) my husband, when he first came over, had to work night shifts and weekends, because he was not given any other option, and, there was definitely no additional compensation. Say, why doesn't he look for another job? He applied to over 100 companies (yeah, he kept a spreadsheet of all those applications he sent). My husband had it tough when he first came here. And, I do think a lot of it is because of the IR laws. But please do enlighten me in this respect. I do not think of the total abolition of the IR laws is the answer. But, as you have said, bad employers have taken advantage of it. What therefore is the balance?

Thanks And also, Julia, how do you rate Wayne Swan against Peter Costello?

Trinity:

Good for you in becoming an Australian citizen and taking an active interest in politics.

Re your husband having to work night shifts etc, I don't think that is a problem exclusively experienced by migrants. Lots of Australian born people are having to do the same. It's good that he is able to find work. I'm not here to point out the benefits of the Howard government, but it's nonetheless true to observe that unemployment under their administration is down to I think about a 40year low. Someone will correct me if that's not right.

It takes some while to feel "absorbed" into a new country. I only came from as close as New Zealand fourteen years ago, but it took several years before I felt I had much of an understanding of how things worked. (Australians still puzzle me sometimes!)

Re Wayne Swan v Peter Costello: I don't much like either of them as people, but feel that Costello has proven himself as a competent Treasurer. It's not fair to say that it's all due to the resources boom imo. If he could lose his smirk and become a little more like his brother, then he'd be pretty OK Prime Minister material. Wayne Swan has not to my knowledge come out with any useful comments re the economy and seems reactive to comments from the government rather than providing any initiatives of his own. He just doesn't come across to me as having any particularly useful qualities and appears rather shallow and superficial.

arminius · 7 July 2007

hi all,

i would agree that costello is a competent treasurer, he does his job, and i would agree that swan carries on like a goose much of the time. for me though the issue goes deeper than a few individuals.
i truly detest this government. i believe in morality, honesty, and equality. a labor vote for me. if labor get elected they may commit the same - but i wont judge them beforehand, and i may vote against them next time if they do.
the invasion of iraq has DESTROYED countless lives.
awb, kids overboard, now nelsons comments and backtrack on oil to name just a couple.
making aussies (and migrants) work weekends and holidays without reward so companies can make more money.
justice is threatened ( hicks, freedom of speech, conviction of airport whistleblower)
when we destroy nations, lie to our own people, squeeze our workforce, and disregard justice...well, it will come back to bite us all, especially the generations that follow.
a few broad statements but time and space etc.....
have a nice night.
ps. the wallabies are half a chance for the world cup!

2020hindsight · 7 July 2007

I'm starting to think the Iraq war is gonna become the major issue / factor for me. After all it was the big factor in the recent midterm elections in USA.

Not that I'd go as far as this bloke did in USA (burns himself alve - similar to what the buddhist monks did in the Vietnam war days) :-

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2766794

Malachi burns himself alive to protest Iraq war. Activist and artist Malachi Ritscher burns himself alive in Chicago in front of morning rush hour commuters to protest the war in Iraq.

The press has almost completely blacked out this news in mainstream press . A long time Chicago activist, artist and contributer to the Chicago jazz scene has burned himself alive in an act of protest against the iraq war. He is only one of 10 Americans in history to have done this .

Buddist monks did this during the VietNam war.

On Friday, November 3, a man doused his body with gasoline and set himself afire to protest the war in Iraq . He died quietly in flames. His name was Malachi Ritscher.

Haven't seen it in the news? Me neither, which is kind of strange if you ask me, considering that it happened right here in downtown Chicago in front of hundreds of commuters during morning rush hour.

The only conventional newspaper coverage to date was a tiny paragraph that appeared in the Saturday edition of the Chicago Sun-Times. Since then...nothing.

His death must not be in vain please spread the word... Chicago activists are planning a protest for Malachi and against the war saturday Nov. 19 in Chicago to get this out into the mainstream news.

only an amateur this next fellow, but makes a sincere attempt to sing in key for this tribute
"The Great Mandella (The Wheel Of Life)" Peter Yarrow cover

here's the same song sung by artists including Peter Yarrow ( of Peter Paul & Mary) (perhaps PP&M themselves ?? )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Yarrow
The Great Mandala , Anti-war montage of photos and archetypal images set to folk song by Peter Paul and Mary

2020hindsight · 8 July 2007

.....

An anti-war protest song. I dedicate my cover version to the memory and message of anti-war protestor Malachi Ritscher. Although I do not endorse his ultimate method of protest -- self-immolation -- I wish to honor his commitment and his intention and his sacrifice. Read his own words:
http://www.savagesound.com/gallery99.htm etc

Trader Paul · 8 July 2007

Hi folks,

FWIW ... figure we'll be hearing the results of the election
(or something just as big for Oz) on 09-10 December 2007 .....

..... that day, our government will receive some BIG news,
likely unpleasant and about issues, that have been hidden
(underground?) from us all, previously.

-----

Around that same time, though NOT connected directly to
our Aussie issues, we should also see a HUGE world event
as well ... a-once-in-lifetime event ... possibly connected
to the Pope (???)

More later.

happy days

paul

-----

greggy · 8 July 2007

Smurf1976 said:
...which resulted in housing being MORE affordable than at present.

Housing is very rapidly becoming the issue if media reports are any indication (which they generally are in this context). Rudd seems to be doing quite well out of it so far which does show some political ability if nothing else.

There are, of course, only two lasting solutions to the problem. (1) A wages boom that mirrors the house price boom or (2) a house price crash. Most seem to be counting on a wages boom since that's what happened in previous cycles.

I wonder how happy the business lobby is with the prospect of wages literally doubling? Probably not very.

And I wonder how happy property owners without children and investors are with the idea of a house price crash? Probably not very.

The difficult spot the Liberals now find themselves in with housing is precisely why real estate booms are something best avoided. (1) Do nothing and quite likely lose the election as growing numbers are priced out of the market and parents realise their children are in a far worse situation than they were at the same age or (2) double wages thus losing the business vote and probably wrecking the economy in the process. Lose either way...

By the way, I'm NOT anti-Liberal. Labor seems unlikely to do any better, indeed some of their plans involve making things worse. But I am anti-meddling in the markets - that's the real problem.

Hi Smurf,

Back in the 1980s there was also a housing boom. Under the Hawke Government with Keating as Treasurer, interest rates went through the roof leading to a severe recession, especially here in Victoria where unemployment went above 12% (including myself). These days its only one-third of this number ( percentage wise) who are unemployed. But for argument's sake, if you wanted to go back further interest rates when Howard was treasurer under Fraser in the late 70s/80s were sky high back then as well.
Is it generally true that when the unemployment rate goes down that means that people are in a position to enter the housing market and that real estate prices generally rise. Back in the 1980s there was also a housing boom.
Rudd labels himself as being a fiscal conservative. Though untried, if he lives up to this label then Australia will be in fairly safe hands. Rudd's clearly not scaring the horses as he's probably Latham's opposite. In many respects Rudd is similar to Howard (his persona, conservatism, outlook etc). The only major points of difference IMO are on IR and Iraq. But don't be alarmed, Rudd is still pro-American. Still sitting on the fence.
Before I go, one thought, why don't we have an exit poll ourselves on the day of the election? Would be interesting to see the results. Given that a lot of traders tend to err on the conservative side, maybe ther result on this forum would be 55% LIb/Nat, 40% ALP and 5% Green/Other.
I'm still sitting on the fence.

trinity · 8 July 2007

Hi Greggy,

I'm a firm believer in working hard all day long for a fair wage. It should work both ways. There will probably be the need for further tinkering with the IR Laws.

Right on! Correct me if I am wrong, feels like Howard does not want to change it, and Rudd just wants to get rid of it?

My parents came here as migrants. They paid their own way here and did it tough. There was much less government support back then then there is now. Its never easy coming to a new country, but most fair dinkum Aussies welcome migrants here with open arms, especially this one.

Thanks, I feel so much better knowing there are others who have or are experiencing what I am going through

greggy · 9 July 2007

trinity said:
Hi Greggy,

Right on! Correct me if I am wrong, feels like Howard does not want to change it, and Rudd just wants to get rid of it?

Thanks, I feel so much better knowing there are others who have or are experiencing what I am going through

Hi Trinity,

Howard's already done a little bit of tinkering with it, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's more to come. At the other end, Rudd seems intent on getting rid of it. Surely, they will find a happy balance in the middle. The Australian Democrats used to be good at finding a happy balance for all parties concerned (e.g. the removal of basic food items from the GST), but now they look like a spent force seem finished due to party infighting, the Greens growing popularity etc. I used to always vote for the Australian Democrats in the Senate until the infighting destroyed this party. IMO it was like taking out a form of insurance. Too much power is no good for anyone.

ghosty · 9 July 2007

Trinity ,

glad to see your are concerned about your new country and asking questions,

If I may also add , spend a bit off time finding out who or whom is resposible for each issue ..Either State or Federal..

It is a very fine line ..

I noticed you have already questioned Howard on the Drought and Aboriginal issues ..

I think you will find sometimes the Federal Gov is damned if it does and also if it doesn't

ghosty

2020hindsight · 9 July 2007

To put the world right in order, we must first put the nation in order; to put the nation in order, we must first put the family in order; to put the family in order, we must first cultivate our personal life; we must first set our hearts right. - Confucius

http://www.wisdomquotes.com/

trinity · 9 July 2007

hi ghosty,

If I may also add , spend a bit off time finding out who or whom is resposible for each issue ..Either State or Federal..

It is a very fine line ..

Yeah, still trying to figure that one out. There are some things which are clear cut, like, am based in sydney, so, Cityrail dilemma is Lemma's problem.

Then, there's the drought issue, which is kinda state and nation wide problem I suppose.

I think you will find sometimes the Federal Gov is damned if it does and also if it doesn't

Sounds like life... well, the government should present the people with more options I reckon.

What are the specific things that affect your decision during the elections?

greggy · 10 July 2007

2020hindsight said:
To put the world right in order, we must first put the nation in order; to put the nation in order, we must first put the family in order; to put the family in order, we must first cultivate our personal life; we must first set our hearts right. - Confucius

http://www.wisdomquotes.com/

Hi 2020 Hindsight,

For the first time ever you've given me a headache with the Confucius bit. Confucius is sometimes confusing and should have been more to the point IMO.
LOL! Love your work 2020.

greggy · 10 July 2007

trinity said:
hi ghosty,

Yeah, still trying to figure that one out. There are some things which are clear cut, like, am based in sydney, so, Cityrail dilemma is Lemma's problem.

Then, there's the drought issue, which is kinda state and nation wide problem I suppose.

Sounds like life... well, the government should present the people with more options I reckon.

What are the specific things that affect your decision during the elections?

G'day Trinity,

If more new Australians took an interest in politics like you do, then maybe this country could become an even better place for it. Discussion of existing policies can often lead to better ideas.
P.S. Having travelled all over the world, I still think we live in the best country in the world.

billhill · 13 July 2007

Did anyone see lateline business last night. The interveiw with Guy Pearse had some pretty explosive claims that the government was letting its biggest donors dictate its greenhouse gas policy. Just more evidence i guess of the coruption of greenhouse policy from this government. More priority in looking after the party and their donors rather then the public. Shame.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200707/s1977550.htm

EMMA ALBERICI: Your central thesis is essentially that the Howard Government allows Australia's biggest environmental polluters to write its Cabinet submissions and ministerial briefings. Now that's a serious allegation, is it something you can actually substantiate?

GUY PEARSE: I've got tape recordings of industry lobbyists based here in Canberra saying just that, on half a dozen occasions over more than a decade, they were involved in more than one department writing Cabinet submissions, ministerial briefings and costings on greenhouse policy.

trinity · 16 July 2007

Just on the topic of housing affordability, read an article
http://au.blogs.yahoo.com/barefootinvestor/36/try-a-reality-check that is saying that the politicians are presenting their "solutions" to housing affordabilty, just to get the votes, which is true, And yet the article says, there is no true solution except for an "inevitable crash". (well, that;s how i understood the article anyways).

Just wanted to get your opinions regarding housing affordabilty. Because, I for one am thinking that a savings fund type (pre-tax) is a good suggestion. It will make people save money and not rely on gov't hand-outs.

What do you guys think?

Rafa · 16 July 2007

certainly agree, anything that encourages savings is a good thing.

there is another solution too... wage rises...
but i am always in favour of a good crash

Noskcid · 19 July 2007

that could work tooz

ELECTIONS - Labor or Liberal

Who do you think will win the next election Labor or Liberal?

Labor (Kevin Rudd)

Liberal (John Howard)

greggy

greggy

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Julia

In Memoriam

arminius

2020hindsight

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Trader Paul

greggy

trinity

greggy

ghosty

2020hindsight

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ELECTIONS - Labor or Liberal

Who do you think will win the next election Labor or Liberal?

Labor (Kevin Rudd)

Liberal (John Howard)

In Memoriam

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