Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[rederob]

This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.

IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.

It's a shame that social media is around and that ill informed people spread this dribble.
The "Dr" (a PhD) is a well known anti-vaxxer who has lots of opinions and zero medical knowledge.
The claim relied on in this post - that asymptomatic people are not a risk - is proven false and reflects the ignorance that prevails when people choose ideology over science.
The further claim that a PCR test cannot detect covid-19 should be laughed at by everyone, rather than believed.
The linked blog is a train wreck of misleading and false medical science claims.
The funniest part is that this "Dr" does not understand how virus and disease are properly used in the English language.

 

[rederob]

one trick was perverting the PCR into being a diagnostic test ( instead of a research tool )

Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci ‘Doesn’t Know Anything’ And Is Willing To Lie On Television​

Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci 'Doesn't Know Anything' And Is Willing To Lie On Television

Kary Mullis, who won a 1993 Nobel Prize for inventing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing process later used to diagnose Coronavirus cases, said that Dr. Anthony Fauci lacks knowledge of medicine and is willing to lie on television. Mullis also admitted in another set of videotaped...

nationalfile.com

RIP ,

Kary Mullis​

one might also give the last rites to medicine as well

Always check your sources.

 

[divs4ever]

there was a lovely video of the late Kary Mullis saying precisely that PLUS the test could not prove you were infectious , just you had some DNA ( or RNA ) in that sample

and well there are enough videos of Fauchi speaking on camera to judge for yourself , start with 'herd immunity ' , if truly bored go back to the HIV days

and THEN you can check the debate on the PCR test as patented to detect Covid 19 ( not SARS Cov 2 which is the actual virus )

a much better gauge would be an antibody test using a blood sample , which would show your body is fighting ( or has recently fought ) the virus

 

[over9k]

there was a lovely video of the late Kary Mullis saying precisely that PLUS the test could not prove you were infectious , just you had some DNA ( or RNA ) in that sample

and well there are enough videos of Fauchi speaking on camera to judge for yourself , start with 'herd immunity ' , if truly bored go back to the HIV days

and THEN you can check the debate on the PCR test as patented to detect Covid 19 ( not SARS Cov 2 which is the actual virus )

a much better gauge would be an antibody test using a blood sample , which would show your body is fighting ( or has recently fought ) the virus

Not practical though.

There's no perfect solution to this and these lockdowns just... aren't going to work.


Again, the only question to ask is when they're going to give up.

 

[divs4ever]

well they have a 'rapid test' ( a saliva test ) far from perfect but relatively quick

much better than hoping a tested person will self-isolate until the results come through

i reckon the government will give up when there is a tax revolt or a ( government ) worker revolt , there are only so many military to fill the gaps

 

[over9k]

Nah, they'll keep the printing presses open until currency collapse forces the public's hand, which isn't going to happen in the next few weeks. There's not going to be any kind of revolution or whatever.

As I said, they'll just give up at some point like the U.K did.

 

[divs4ever]

i would like to think you are correct on the revolution , but some have been severely hurt during this ( delayed medical treatments and financial damage )

i am not willing to bet against a revolt

( i hold VUK and JHG , so would feel an impact if there was )

cheers

 

[againsthegrain]

i would like to think you are correct on the revolution , but some have been severely hurt during this ( delayed medical treatments and financial damage )

i am not willing to bet against a revolt

( i hold VUK and JHG , so would feel an impact if there was )

cheers

Probably not in Australia, people have never experienced prolonged hurt or anger at the government. A few pot plants at cops heads is probably as extreme as it gets, then get sugar coated with printed $ for the masses.

Russia, East europe or Latin America is a different story where whole generations are born hating the corrupt govts

 

[divs4ever]

well we have a reasonably high proportion of migrants and in my experience many can be extremely passionate

look at the rare outbursts from those who felt cheated by the family court system .

hurt enough families and i think you are rolling the dice

 

[divs4ever]

also a revolt can be widespread non-compliance

in my younger days unionists would flex their muscles like that , but it would still work for any sizable body of citizens if they choose to do it

 

[divs4ever]

Insurers worry about COVID-19 discrimination claims as workers return to desks

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...ion-claims-as-workers-return-to-desks-2582493

 

[Value Collector]

Yep, been saying that all along. Vaccines will not give us the freedom we are led to believe. It makes me sick to listen to everyone on TV say the same thing - Vaccination is our way out of lockdown, if everyone gets vaccinated we will be safe, etc.". Safer perhaps because it does seem to work to an extent, but the answer to safely travelling and gathering NO! I am not bashing vaccines although I would like to do that. Some people have very little choice so they should risk it. Most people will not be affected much and do not need it, and the vaccinated keep getting infected again so our leaders need a different tack. This one will never work. I believe that the possible economic implications will be most negatively felt when they do try to open up and it backfires. It looks like that has already begun. After a few more tries people will become very disillusioned. There does not seem to be a plan B other than more jabs. Bad way to go. Who here never has a plan B?

If everyone was fully vaccinated, we can open up and let the virus spread, and instead of intensive care units and funeral parlours being over run we will just have people getting the sniffles.

Then, once covid has been reduced to the sniffles, each exposure adds to our immunity levels, and some natural balance should be reached and we can all go about or lives again.

 

[over9k]

Jobs data better than expected, futures and bonds moved significantly on the news, inflation carryon back in vogue:



Looks like the tech to energy & banks swing point was indeed yesterday. Pretty satisfied with my call if I do say so myself.

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fair bit of profit taking friday on account of this delta variant over the weekend. Likely to see a big move on monday in one direction or another depending on what numbers we see over the weekend.


For the options traders out there, that means a golden opportunity for a straddle play

 

[wayneL]

If everyone was fully vaccinated, we can open up and let the virus spread, and instead of intensive care units and funeral parlours being over run we will just have people getting the sniffles.

Then, once covid has been reduced to the sniffles, each exposure adds to our immunity levels, and some natural balance should be reached and we can all go about or lives again.

One month I think that death was not a thing pre-COVID.

News flash:

People get sick

People die

It's the cycle of life

 

[over9k]

True, but we're only interested in how it effects the economics/markets. There's a political thread to argue about it if you want but all you're doing is screaming into the abyss.

If you want to discuss what you think is going to happen/what governments are going to do (not what they SHOULD do) then I'm all ears though.

 

[wayneL]

True, but we're only interested in how it effects the economics/markets. There's a political thread to argue about it if you want but all you're doing is screaming into the abyss.

If you want to discuss what you think is going to happen/what governments are going to do (not what they SHOULD do) then I'm all ears though.

Yes, that is the overarching point, I do agree... At least as regards to investing and protecting oneself.

Indeed, I do place my Dosh with that in mind, but my speech may not reflect my investments.

Money is cool, but liberty is better. (IMHO)

 

[Value Collector]

News flash:

People get sick

People die

It's the cycle of life

Yep, but that’s why we invented all the other vaccines and wonders of modern healthcare to extend our personal participation in this cycle of life.

Not to mention seat belts, airbags, bike helmets and many other things.

If a vaccination can reduce deaths from 1 in 300 to maybe 1 in 100,000 why wouldn’t you recommend them?

 

[divs4ever]

Yep, but that’s why we invented all the other vaccines and wonders of modern healthcare to extend our personal participation in this cycle of life.

Not to mention seat belts, airbags, bike helmets and many other things.

If a vaccination can reduce deaths from 1 in 300 to maybe 1 in 100,000 why wouldn’t you recommend them?

but will it ??

where is the data

they even unblinded the first trail 2 years early after it was given emergency approval
now the same doctor that claims a bone marrow biopsy or a shoulder re-construction is too dangerous because of my heart condition is desperate that i give me ( another ) experimental medical treatment

maybe he believes third time is a charm ( with experimental treatments )

 

[Smurf1976]

Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.

A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.

When it comes to vaccination the same applies. It's possible that a vaccine might kill you yes but based on available knowledge the probability massively favours vaccination being less likely to harm you than the disease it seeks to prevent.

That's much like saying that under certain scenarios it's possible that someone dies in a car crash because they were wearing a seat belt or because of the airbags deploying. That is possible indeed there are reported occurrences. Likewise at a guess it probably has happened that a building burnt down because the fire alarm caught fire. Theoretically it's possible and odds are it has happened somewhere at least once. Statistically however, you're far less likely to be killed by the belt, bag or alarm than that same belt, bag or alarm is to save your life. Statistical probability favours having it despite the new risk it creates.

In the absence of certainty I'll pick proper statistical data over random thoughts any day. There's no guarantee that turns out to be the right decision but most likely it will be and there's no "do nothing" option here, there's no option to simply say we'll do nothing right now and will collect some more data before we make a decision as someone might do with a proposed share trading system or the construction of a dam. In this case there's no option to do nothing, the virus is already up and running.

The economic impacts will continue rising until we've got a critical mass of people vaccinated. Only then, and I'm basing this on reports of the overseas experience, can we get back to business with any real certainty.

 

[qldfrog]

Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.

A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.

When it comes to vaccination the same applies. It's possible that a vaccine might kill you yes but based on available knowledge the probability massively favours vaccination being less likely to harm you than the disease it seeks to prevent.

That's much like saying that under certain scenarios it's possible that someone dies in a car crash because they were wearing a seat belt or because of the airbags deploying. That is possible indeed there are reported occurrences. Likewise at a guess it probably has happened that a building burnt down because the fire alarm caught fire. Theoretically it's possible and odds are it has happened somewhere at least once. Statistically however, you're far less likely to be killed by the belt, bag or alarm than that same belt, bag or alarm is to save your life. Statistical probability favours having it despite the new risk it creates.

In the absence of certainty I'll pick proper statistical data over random thoughts any day. There's no guarantee that turns out to be the right decision but most likely it will be and there's no "do nothing" option here, there's no option to simply say we'll do nothing right now and will collect some more data before we make a decision as someone might do with a proposed share trading system or the construction of a dam. In this case there's no option to do nothing, the virus is already up and running.

The economic impacts will continue rising until we've got a critical mass of people vaccinated. Only then, and I'm basing this on reports of the overseas experience, can we get back to business with any real certainty.

Critical mass vaccinated or exposed.... So why not let healthy people get exposed? Let's look at bloody Sweden for once..whole story done and over there...protect the weak, let it run for the rest
Stats whatever ABC wants you to believe are known, and i would much prefer my 22y old son get covid, with Qld health keeping him be and not killing him in an hospital....than giving him an mRNA jab.
I want him to be alive and healthy in 15y