Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Value Collector]

but will it ??

where is the data

they even unblinded the first trail 2 years early after it was given emergency approval
now the same doctor that claims a bone marrow biopsy or a shoulder re-construction is too dangerous because of my heart condition is desperate that i give me ( another ) experimental medical treatment

maybe he believes third time is a charm ( with experimental treatments )

You can see in the real world right now, no one in Australia that is vaccinated has died of covid in this outbreak, in the USA they are seeing the same thing, they are saying the Vaccines can reduce the chance of death from covid by more than 99.99%

 

[pozindustrial]

Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.

A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.

When it comes to vaccination the same applies. It's possible that a vaccine might kill you yes but based on available knowledge the probability massively favours vaccination being less likely to harm you than the disease it seeks to prevent.

That's much like saying that under certain scenarios it's possible that someone dies in a car crash because they were wearing a seat belt or because of the airbags deploying. That is possible indeed there are reported occurrences. Likewise at a guess it probably has happened that a building burnt down because the fire alarm caught fire. Theoretically it's possible and odds are it has happened somewhere at least once. Statistically however, you're far less likely to be killed by the belt, bag or alarm than that same belt, bag or alarm is to save your life. Statistical probability favours having it despite the new risk it creates.

In the absence of certainty I'll pick proper statistical data over random thoughts any day. There's no guarantee that turns out to be the right decision but most likely it will be and there's no "do nothing" option here, there's no option to simply say we'll do nothing right now and will collect some more data before we make a decision as someone might do with a proposed share trading system or the construction of a dam. In this case there's no option to do nothing, the virus is already up and running.

The economic impacts will continue rising until we've got a critical mass of people vaccinated. Only then, and I'm basing this on reports of the overseas experience, can we get back to business with any real certainty.

Good analysis but I use a different one.
try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.
That is what projab mushrooms do and think. Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.
Then someone else gets a wider opinion, goes for data overseas on models sold there that are available here and find out that the specs from the local company have been massively exaggerated and that those overseas specs cannot be used by the local dealer because the govt banned them saying they were not relevant here. So the buyer becomes suspicious and begins more research that is hard to find and discovers that the local car has caught fire and incinerated the occupants five times last year but a person who questioned this in the media was told there was no link to a fault, they were all caused by other non-connected issues and that making this public would be unAustralian and could harm the economy. The projab mushrooms who believe the local marketing get their knickers in a knot and label EVERYONE with a different view an antivaxer and tell others they are ruining the country when all they are trying to do is get some unbiased information without the spin so they do not get incinerated. Then they gradually find there are others doing the same and people who are able to find out all the problem data and research on alternative approaches not provided locally. A battle ensues where tv and govt continue to deny concerns and push ahead with their favourite and projab mushrooms live on the bs and are happy in the dark while others are hesitant.

 

[Value Collector]

Good analysis but I use a different one.
try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.
That is what projab mushrooms do and think. Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.
Then someone else gets a wider opinion, goes for data overseas on models sold there that are available here and find out that the specs from the local company have been massively exaggerated and that those overseas specs cannot be used by the local dealer because the govt banned them saying they were not relevant here. So the buyer becomes suspicious and begins more research that is hard to find and discovers that the local car has caught fire and incinerated the occupants five times last year but a person who questioned this in the media was told there was no link to a fault, they were all caused by other non-connected issues and that making this public would be unAustralian and could harm the economy. The projab mushrooms who believe the local marketing get their knickers in a knot and label EVERYONE with a different view an antivaxer and tell others they are ruining the country when all they are trying to do is get some unbiased information without the spin so they do not get incinerated. Then they gradually find there are others doing the same and people who are able to find out all the problem data and research on alternative approaches not provided locally. A battle ensues where tv and govt continue to deny concerns and push ahead with their favourite and projab mushrooms live on the bs and are happy in the dark while others are hesitant.

Try to keep it simple. Statistically if the vaccination was more dangerous than covid, due to the number of vaccines given we should have seen 20,000 people die of the vaccine, but we haven’t.

Also if the vaccine didn’t protect you from covid, we should be seeing about 20% of people in icu and deaths being vaccinated but we have 0%

so far we know that covid cases are quite low in Australia, however in comparison quite a high rate of these people end up in intensive care and about 1 in 300 die.

compare that to the vaccine, where millions of people have had it, but there have been a lot less deaths than covid, and none of the deaths from covid were fully vaccinated.

 

[divs4ever]

so is 'critical mass ' , 'herd immunity ' ??

because there is certainly a mass of people out that are critical ( of government policy )

 

[rederob]

Good analysis but I use a different one.
try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.

Not many would agree that a car salesperson will be as objective as a medical scientist.

That is what projab mushrooms do and think.

It's actually the reverse. Antivaxxers use false and discredited information to make their case.

Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.

That's not a concern as you put it. It's a inevitable consequence of the proven effect of herd immunity.
If you are going to post an analogy, it needs to be honest.
You have distorted the narrative and drawn a false equivalent.
Not just that, your analogy is reliant on lies and distortions. For example, the bans you introduce do not exist. Then you use data which fails to provide context, as has been shown by @Value Collector.
Your defence is that it is you who is seeking the truth. However, you cannot show how.
On the other hand there is a wealth of local and international evidence available which now has real world credibility from billions of examples.
Then there is you and the antivaxxers who have what, exactly?

 

[Value Collector]

so is 'critical mass ' , 'herd immunity ' ??

because there is certainly a mass of people out that are critical ( of government policy )

Not full herd immunity, but at least a herd buffer where there is enough vaccinated people that the virus spreads in a slow and bogged down manner rather super fast.

you just want enough people vaccinated that exponential growth doesn’t really happen, because each chain of spread hit road blocks and dead ends.

 

[divs4ever]

false information ??

many use official government information ( as released on public websites )

so are we to distrust the government , that expects us the follow their narrative blindly

i mean thousands of people ignore official government figures on employment and inflation , but that is OK , but quote inconvenient government data , that is a dangerous conspiracy cult

interesting times

by the way many urging caution on this vaccine are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry ( like say Robert Malone or Geert Vanden Bossche , or Dr Byram Bridle )

 

[divs4ever]

that buffer is looking more and more like 150% after all they are now talking 6 monthly boosters ... at $200 a jab that is a LOT of taxpayer money ( before they start inducement payments )

 

[divs4ever]

This 500% Gain Is Causing Headaches for Nearly Every Industry​

This 500% Gain Is Causing Headaches for Nearly Every Industry

In today’s Money Morning…backlogs for months…how to navigate a freight crisis…any company heavily reliant on exports may be at potential risk…and more…

www.moneymorning.com.au

DYOR

i hold none of the stocks mentioned in the article ( and neither are they on my watchlist )

i much prefer trucking stocks ( and stocks supplying the trucking industry ) ( i am also trying to gracefully exit BXB )

 

[rederob]

false information ??

@pozindustrial has recently posted a link in 2 threads that makes many demonstrably false claims, and I have instanced it above.

i mean thousands of people ignore official government figures on employment and inflation , but that is OK , but quote inconvenient government data , that is a dangerous conspiracy cult

Just offer evidence that what you think or believe is credible.

by the way many urging caution on this vaccine are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry ( like say Robert Malone or Geert Vanden Bossche , or Dr Byram Bridle )

Yes, people with agendas other than public safety.
You would do well to check the bona fides of professionals you quote.

 

[divs4ever]

not being a terribly affluent person ( most of my life ) my social circle includes casual workers , part-time workers , trades-people and some trying to buy their first home ( via multiple jobs )

so when a couple go from five sources of income ( 4 casual 1 full-time ) to two sources of income ( one different full-time and one casual from pre-covid ) i am guessing they are hurting badly

another is a painter who might be better quitting and punting on the race-tracks for a living ( or the football )

several older associates have just stopped working ( or their business )

i have seen some amazing 'career shifts ' ( most of them not in an upward path )

BTW i check agendas as well ( follow the money )

but of course some BIG Pharma groups just keep tripping over regulations

 

[basilio]

Yes, people with agendas other than public safety.
You would do well to check the bona fides of professionals you quote.

Yeah.. That was an eyeopener. Clinical, detailed takedown of the lies/misrepresentations by Byram Bridle.

Byram Bridle's COVID Vaccine Misinformation

A rebuttal, debunking, and response to Byram Bridle's misinformation regarding COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines.

byrambridle.com

 

[wabullfrog]

Critical mass vaccinated or exposed.... So why not let healthy people get exposed? Let's look at bloody Sweden for once..whole story done and over there...protect the weak, let it run for the rest
Stats whatever ABC wants you to believe are known, and i would much prefer my 22y old son get covid, with Qld health keeping him be and not killing him in an hospital....than giving him an mRNA jab.
I want him to be alive and healthy in 15y

It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.

Medical care

Medical care involves the measures taken to provide care for those who are ill and the development of medical and health care services. Care should...

www.government.se

Startpage

www.government.se

 

[divs4ever]

Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children​

Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children

SASKATCHEWAN: The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms represents Dr. Francis Christian, Clinical Professor of General Surgery at the University of Saskatchewan and a practising surgeon in Saskatoon. Dr. Christian was called into a meeting today, suspended from all teaching...

vaccinedeaths.com

keep this for posterity

it might become educational

( Mengele loved experimenting of children ... and he is classed as one of the fathers of Genetics )

 

[basilio]

Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children​

Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children

SASKATCHEWAN: The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms represents Dr. Francis Christian, Clinical Professor of General Surgery at the University of Saskatchewan and a practising surgeon in Saskatoon. Dr. Christian was called into a meeting today, suspended from all teaching...

vaccinedeaths.com

keep this for posterity

it might become educational

( Mengele loved experimenting of children ... and he is classed as one of the fathers of Genetics )

What can one say after checking out the rest of the stories on this website ...

Vaccine Deaths Com | Vaccine Deaths – Vaccine Deaths Coverage

Vaccine Deaths Com | Vaccine Deaths – Vaccine Deaths Coverage

vaccinedeaths.com

 

[divs4ever]

you can lead a horse to water

 

[over9k]

Well I just got my first pfizer jab.

 

[pozindustrial]

The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.

 

[qldfrog]

It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.

Medical care

Medical care involves the measures taken to provide care for those who are ill and the development of medical and health care services. Care should...

www.government.se

Startpage

www.government.se

sure but if you read about it, lockdowns when any are decided wo political input so just to manage ICU loads, and they now have hardly any death from delta (0 to 1 a week out of 10 millions ...after letting the virus go and vaccinating frails...not exactly what has been done anywhere else, nor here; have a look at their GDP, their total number of death (1/4 of 2018 influenza).These are facts, unpleasant maybe but facts
Lockdown might be used to delay contamination, that is science, but they DO NOT reduce cases over time...so you do not lockdown until you are to reach hospital issues
Anyway, rationality is out, just belief resulting of fear and propaganda...
Some people still believe in Heaven and hell, some in virgins waiting for them after they detonate themselves, what hope does science or common sense have...

 

[qldfrog]

It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.

Medical care

Medical care involves the measures taken to provide care for those who are ill and the development of medical and health care services. Care should...

www.government.se

Startpage

www.government.se

and BTW, my (french ) sister went on a week end holidays there 2 weeks ago...Facts...opening up....