Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[divs4ever]

only triple ???

i think there was more cash splashed than that , look when the debt ceiling limit has been hit this year ( considering the limit was suspended last year )

ALSO the stimulus is unlikely to stop this year ( no matter what Congress and Senate vote )

but good on you for asking the question

cheers

another question MIGHT will non-government ( US ) entities continue buying Treasury Bonds ( if the Fed buys almost all of them directly ... that has got to effect the credit-ratings on the Bonds )

 

[pozindustrial]

only triple ???

i think there was more cash splashed than that , look when the debt ceiling limit has been hit this year ( considering the limit was suspended last year )

ALSO the stimulus is unlikely to stop this year ( no matter what Congress and Senate vote )

but good on you for asking the question

cheers

another question MIGHT will non-government ( US ) entities continue buying Treasury Bonds ( if the Fed buys almost all of them directly ... that has got to effect the credit-ratings on the Bonds )

Most of you would have seen this from Investing.com today. Tells how much debt Australia is buying.


By Oliver Gray

Investing.com - The Australian Dollar lifted to near 2-week highs of 0.7406 against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday after policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised market participants as they held firm on their current tapering timeline, despite protracted lockdowns across the country, citing a stronger than expected economic recovery from previous lockdown periods. Officials maintained the current cash rate at 0.1% and will continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $5 billion a week until early September and then $4 billion a week until at least mid November.

 

[divs4ever]

would be interesting to see if the debt purchased is State or Federal or a combination of both ( states issue a fair amount of bonds and bills as well )

but let's see what really happens with the RBA

 

[over9k]

Headline says it all. AU's tapering anyway.

One thing I would note is that we're heading into summer (so a less infectious environment) here rather than winter there.

 

[divs4ever]

but this virus is very clever , it knows to lurk during curfews , gets more active before Public Holidays and religious festivals , and much prefers cruise liners but abhors rioters and adulterous government officials

 

[qldfrog]

but this virus is very clever , it knows to lurk during curfews , gets more active before Public Holidays and religious festivals , and much prefers cruise liners but abhors rioters and adulterous government officials

This virus is a legend,managed to keep a whole state at home early this week with just 9 representatives having RNR,not even in active duties.
But 5 billions a week,bloody overpaid these covid guys are...

 

[divs4ever]

maybe we need a virus for premier ( or PM )

they don't say much but cause a lot to change ( and both still get up your nose )

 

[over9k]

More lockdowns for aus now, with basically the whole eastern seaboard on lockdown:

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-cases-and-five-deaths-as-delta-spreads-north

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ing-considered-after-eight-new-cases-recorded

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-waits-to-see-if-lockdown-will-lift-on-sunday


All eyes on the exchange rate.

 

[over9k]

Remember that we have a bit of deja-vu going on with this delta variant at the moment.

Energy is plummeting:



Whilst the stay-at-home stuff like microchips and the vaccine makers is surging again:



But remember, this flipped as soon as these fears went before and they will again with this delta variant.


In short, there's going to be a massive swing play to be had here, so we watch the data and carryon on the news like a hawk.

 

[over9k]

Also, a lot of talking heads postulating that the 10 year yield is as low as it is because the rest of the world is getting slammed by the delta variant much harder than the USA on account of the USA leading the world in vaccinations. Classic flight to safety.

Sounds quite plausible - but if the delta variant nukes global supply chains again, we'll see rapid inflation (again).

The big difference is that now the ports won't be nearly the choke points they were before, but as is pointed out here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...t-prices-aren-t-part-of-the-inflation-problem

A containerload of smartphones or something holding 7 figures' worth of gear doesn't see much of a change to a few thousand bucks added to its shipping costs. It's a drop in the ocean for that kind of good.

Combine that with the vaccine rollouts and I just can't see the inflation fears of last time being nearly as bad now. Whatever inflation we're likely to see will be as a result of the money printing rather than supply constraints, and it was the supply constraints that drove it last time.


Long story short, whilst all the inflation jitters exist with good reason, I think it overblown. Some simple tapering and things are back to (relative) normal.


I already posted how the RBA is still going to start tapering despite all these lockdowns with the delta variant and so on, and the BOE has just announced its start as well:



So it would appear that the taps are finally starting to be closed. This is a pretty solid sign of confidence from the central banks.

 

[divs4ever]

a flight to safety with the current US Government backing .. NOT with my cash thanks

i notice elsewhere Western money is trickling into Chinese Government bonds ( not that my money is going there either )

 

[over9k]

Here's your long term outlook:



Versus:



Money has an any-port-in-a-storm approach and the USD is the best port by miles.

 

[over9k]

So with vaccine & chip makers now plummeting and everything else, particularly energy, absolutely screaming today:



It would appear that the swing point was actually yesterday. Lol.

Well, better one moment too late than five moments too early!

 

[over9k]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...reak-not-slowing-down-despite-6-week-lockdown

"Sydney cases not slowing despite 6 week lockdown"



As I said before, this genie isn't going to be put back in the bottle. I suspect the new clock on this is going to be how long before they just give up like the U.K did?

 

[pozindustrial]

Yep, been saying that all along. Vaccines will not give us the freedom we are led to believe. It makes me sick to listen to everyone on TV say the same thing - Vaccination is our way out of lockdown, if everyone gets vaccinated we will be safe, etc.". Safer perhaps because it does seem to work to an extent, but the answer to safely travelling and gathering NO! I am not bashing vaccines although I would like to do that. Some people have very little choice so they should risk it. Most people will not be affected much and do not need it, and the vaccinated keep getting infected again so our leaders need a different tack. This one will never work. I believe that the possible economic implications will be most negatively felt when they do try to open up and it backfires. It looks like that has already begun. After a few more tries people will become very disillusioned. There does not seem to be a plan B other than more jabs. Bad way to go. Who here never has a plan B?

 

[divs4ever]

but more jabs are so profitable ( because they are already raising the prices on the boosters )



these guys even make drug pushers look charitable

 

[over9k]

Moderna already saying they reckon most in the USA will need another booster shot before winter.

So that makes three jabs per person.

 

[pozindustrial]

This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.

IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.

 

[qldfrog]

The big economic impact of covid is the Reset using it as a pretext,
so no more ice and in short no individual transport for the commoners or long distance travel, even less flights.
No more meat, tax on water, air,and land pushing sme and family farms to bankrupsy:
high density housing, no go wilderness and historic areas..again..for the commoners but not the master
As individual, you own nothing..but are happy with universal income
will be a shock here country of the RE madness.
Invest accordingly and yes the fangs will be around

 

[divs4ever]

This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.

IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.

one trick was perverting the PCR into being a diagnostic test ( instead of a research tool )

Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci ‘Doesn’t Know Anything’ And Is Willing To Lie On Television​

Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci 'Doesn't Know Anything' And Is Willing To Lie On Television

Kary Mullis, who won a 1993 Nobel Prize for inventing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing process later used to diagnose Coronavirus cases, said that Dr. Anthony Fauci lacks knowledge of medicine and is willing to lie on television. Mullis also admitted in another set of videotaped...

nationalfile.com

RIP ,

Kary Mullis​

one might also give the last rites to medicine as well