Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[rederob]

The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.

If this Professor is so smart, where are his peer reviewed studies?
All his so called cures have been examined for covid and there is no magic bullet.
And if vitamin D is so good why did the USA experience a massive wave of infection last summer, while this summer the supposed benefits should be preventing the current wave which is underway.
Ivermectin, which he also promotes, has no proven benefit at this stage.
His comments on nutrition generally are on the money and I support his view that government should be promoting a balanced and nutritious diet, and healthy lifestyle.

 

[Smurf1976]

So why not let healthy people get exposed?

First problem there is knowing who is healthy in that sense and who isn't?

Second problem is how to separate the healthy from the rest and enable society to function?

Third problem is that even healthy people seem to suffer ongoing effects if they get it.

With regard to the third, as a man I'd prefer to not become impotent as just one example: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence#1

"We think the penis also could be affected in a similar way," Ramasamy said. "We don't think this is a temporary effect. We think this could be permanent."

That's quoting university researchers in the US not some political group.

Add that to lung damage, heart damage, headaches and all the rest plus the reality that for those countries that did go down that track, the death toll has been rather large.

So unless your son is unusually conservative in lifestyle and intends not having sex in the future, getting COVID seems to not be a particularly good idea.

From an economic perspective, well the logical long term conclusion of that is it reduces future population which, from an economic perspective, has definite downsides. Perhaps good for the environment but not for GDP.

 

[Smurf1976]

by the way many urging caution on this vaccine are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry

I agree that in principle giving people a minimally tested vaccine is far from ideal and under normal circumstances ought not be done.

This is however not a normal circumstance since the problem needing to be fixed is already in circulation. If the lion has already escaped from the zoo, the bridge has already collapsed or the ship really is sinking well then there's simply no option to do nothing and carry on business as usual.

In an ideal world I don't want a virus or a vaccine but, since there's choice to not have one or the other, I've chosen the vaccine based on the track record of vaccinations in general being the less bad option.

 

[Value Collector]

The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.

Hang on, is he a Vet?

 

[frugal.rock]

And now for something completely different...

Anybody notice some massive intraday up swings on 10 year bonds over most international markets last night? Interestingly again, they mostly closed flat.... Spain was up 23%, France 17%, US 7%, Germany 10¿% etc

Gold off, silver truly tarnished, oil seeping down, but relax, because carbon emissions is relentless on its ever continued world dominance aspirations... the inflation trade is kicking in.

Tired of the "to Vax, or not to Vax, this is the question" debate...

 

[qldfrog]

First problem there is knowing who is healthy in that sense and who isn't?

Second problem is how to separate the healthy from the rest and enable society to function?

Third problem is that even healthy people seem to suffer ongoing effects if they get it.

With regard to the third, as a man I'd prefer to not become impotent as just one example: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence#1



That's quoting university researchers in the US not some political group.

Add that to lung damage, heart damage, headaches and all the rest plus the reality that for those countries that did go down that track, the death toll has been rather large.

So unless your son is unusually conservative in lifestyle and intends not having sex in the future, getting COVID seems to not be a particularly good idea.

From an economic perspective, well the logical long term conclusion of that is it reduces future population which, from an economic perspective, has definite downsides. Perhaps good for the environment but not for GDP.

I am sorry Smurf, this is really typical of someone who is not aware of reality.
A bit like Australia trying to prepare for a snow storm ..try to talk to someone you know aged less than 60 and based in a country affected by covid/having had covid.
On the other end give me some garantee on potential side effect of the jab: let's not call this vaccine, these are genetic experimentation...not vaccines as defined till 3y ago
Anyway, Propaganda works, so we will see how many death we will have in the youngest ones due to jabs vs Covid...

 

[qldfrog]

I agree that in principle giving people a minimally tested vaccine is far from ideal and under normal circumstances ought not be done.

This is however not a normal circumstance since the problem needing to be fixed is already in circulation. If the lion has already escaped from the zoo, the bridge has already collapsed or the ship really is sinking well then there's simply no option to do nothing and carry on business as usual.

In an ideal world I don't want a virus or a vaccine but, since there's choice to not have one or the other, I've chosen the vaccine based on the track record of vaccinations in general being the less bad option.

For your information @Smurf1976 , there is only ONE track record of an mRNA vaccine, which so far has killed 600 children in the Philippines:
That article is pre covid..600 minimum deaths by now..feel free to get informed, then happy Pfizer to our youth.....

 

[over9k]

I don't touch anything european except the LSE so I don't know off the top of my head, but could there have been some kind of tapering announcement from the ECB or similiar?

 

[frugal.rock]

No idea, but the US 10 yr was also up around 7% when I looked.
Just intraday figures though, but ranging widely indicating volatility, again.

 

[So_Cynical]

I think there is a very real chance that the real second wave has now begun, Delta and what will follow it may end up doing more damage than everything that has come before it.

 

[over9k]

Hmm dunno about that. There's literally hundreds of millions more vaccines deployed now than before. And everyone have already bought all their stay-at-home stuff too.

 

[noirua]

Biden skips victory lap after strong July jobs report, warns of economic peril from rising Covid cases

President Joe Biden said the strong July jobs numbers were no cause for celebration, because rising Covid cases pose an urgent threat.

www.cnbc.com

The highly contagious delta strain of Covid currently accounts for at least 80% of new infections nationwide.

 

[noirua]

Delta variant bears down on China just as its economy loses steam

The Delta variant poses new risks for the world's second-biggest economy as it spreads from the coast to China's inland cities and presents fresh challenges to authorities who have for months managed to avert any widespread outbreak of the coronavirus.

www.reuters.com

"All staff at our hotel must take nucleic acid tests every two days," said a front desk attendant surnamed Li at the Zhangjiajie Huatian Hotel (000428.SZ).

 

[Smurf1976]

I am sorry Smurf, this is really typical of someone who is not aware of reality.
A bit like Australia trying to prepare for a snow storm ..try to talk to someone you know aged less than 60 and based in a country affected by covid/having had covid.

For the record I actually have talked to someone who's (just) under 60 and living in the UK.

Admittedly a tiny sample of one person but their message was pretty blunt - suffice to say they're very firmly in favour of vaccination.

Have a look at what was going on in the UK before mass vaccination versus after it. It's night versus day. Vaccination has claimed a few lives yes but the death rate from COVID has gone from huge to trivial. End result is the UK economy is opening up without a spike in deaths meanwhile in Australia we're still locking down.

To my understanding life in the UK is considerably closer to normal right now than it is in Sydney or Melbourne in particular. Economically, it's hard to see that not being a negative for Australia, big cities especially.

 

[qldfrog]

For the record I actually have talked to someone who's (just) under 60 and living in the UK.

Admittedly a tiny sample of one person but their message was pretty blunt - suffice to say they're very firmly in favour of vaccination.

Have a look at what was going on in the UK before mass vaccination versus after it. It's night versus day. Vaccination has claimed a few lives yes but the death rate from COVID has gone from huge to trivial. End result is the UK economy is opening up without a spike in deaths meanwhile in Australia we're still locking down.

To my understanding life in the UK is considerably closer to normal right now than it is in Sydney or Melbourne in particular. Economically, it's hard to see that not being a negative for Australia, big cities especially.

It is not a pro or against jab, it is pro or against forcing people not at risk of covid: . roughly below 60ish to be injected with a new tech relying on a genetic modification, sure not of your cells but a if i may say so a GM virus . As i am sure you know, a virus develops by tweeking your own body cells to reproduce the virus
So untested GM of a cell building factory..a lot of shortcuts here..but the idea...you understand the potential unexpected risks?
Lastly, nearly all the viruses i know usually hide within the body even after having been defeated.
My grandmother got TB in our older age yet was immunised etc
Latency then just coming out when bodies was weakened..see AIDS related illnesses, zonas, etc

And people protested and put laws in place against eating GM wheat or food?
If we had a dead or attenuated virus offer, i would have no scientific reasons to be against mandatory vaccine, this would be a vaccine not a trial with a product which could create millions of self immune responses or whatever unexpected results in 5 or 10y time if our body respond to a different virus or is weakened.
And NO ONE knowsthey can hope they can pray, but neither gov, manufacturers or scientist know.
Nor can i or you.
That's a bloody scientifically cautious reaon, for anyone who is not at risk of Covid, that's the 99% or even 90%, NOT to take the jab.
If you are at risk..of course, better a certitude of a number vs an unknown.
The position of the ? which is actually shared by many real experts..not GPs but virus and epidemiology experts.i let you check that further if you have children or young relatives

 

[qldfrog]

I think there is a very real chance that the real second wave has now begun, Delta and what will follow it may end up doing more damage than everything that has come before it.

In Australia for sure as it is our first wave and we are sitting duck with nor facility increases.so jabbed or not...

 

[qldfrog]

I think these lockdowns will affect our future by removing motivation to create new businesses..who would start a new cafe restaurant after this mess? Even a var service,an international startup..ok self interest here A whole generation burnt turning to PS jobs..or is it the aim?

 

[qldfrog]

I think these lockdowns will affect our future by removing motivation to create new businesses..who would start a new cafe restaurant after this mess? Even a var service,an international startup..ok self interest here A whole generation burnt turning to PS jobs..or is it the aim?

I am guilty as hell but this should go back to the economic side: lockdowns effects on business,our RBA buying our own debt at the rate of $200 a week per man,woman kid and infant to pay for it, the serious hit on our competitivity now and future due to travel bans...
We are on a destruction course of unparalleled scale

 

[bsnews]

The only reason you form these opinions and are allowed to make your own choice are due to the pure luck of the country you are living in.
If you were in Brasil or India any other 3rd world country I would love to see how much believe and resolve people would have then.

 

[Value Collector]

To my understanding life in the UK is considerably closer to normal right now than it is in Sydney or Melbourne in particular. Economically, it's hard to see that not being a negative for Australia, big cities especially.

Unfortunately we failed to prepare soon enough, hopefully we can make up the time we wasted.