Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[fergee]

 

[fergee]

This was found here https://www.reddit.com/user/thejjbug/ on reddit take it with a gain of salt as Im unsure of the data quality but interesting perspective on previous outbreaks.

 

[qldfrog]

Maybe there are a lot of Chinese buying them and sending them home with the baby formula.

I am not Chinese but I ordered one
if I do not use it for a virus issue, I do enough grinding etc or trying to spray paint a cupboard from the inside (an hint: do not try even with full protection and mask) that it will be useful;
ordered a set of surgical masks as well, to complement the std face masks I brought back from China when living there.They export milk, I imported masks..and plastic bags..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am not Chinese but I ordered one
if I do not use it for a virus issue, I do enough grinding etc or trying to spray paint a cupboard from the inside (an hint: do not try even with full protection and mask) that it will be useful;
ordered a set of surgical masks as well, to complement the std face masks I brought back from China when living there.They export milk, I imported masks..and plastic bags..

They are called STI's now @qldfrog not STD's. In any case a mask won't prevent you catching one no matter how you attach it, or to where.

Nor will a standard mask protect you from coronavirus.

You need a P2.

You also need to have a P2 when they check you for an STD.

gg

 

[basilio]

I think the economic implications are going to start happening as companies stop production, supply chains start to fail and in particular air transport in and out of China falters.

What could happen is that the epidemic spreads significantly through China and the pressure on the Chinese economy and industrial activity gets translated to the rest of the world.

 

[qldfrog]

They are called STI's now @qldfrog not STD's. In any case a mask won't prevent you catching one no matter how you attach it, or to where.

Nor will a standard mask protect you from coronavirus.

You need a P2.

You also need to have a P2 when they check you for an STD.

gg

std for standard ..aka chirurgical
Only 2 types of masks recommended
Chirurgical or P2 here,( N95 elsewhere) with cartridge usually or replaceable filter
Got both
Nothing has been said about the efficiency or not of Tamiflu and the few antivirus known compounds.

 

[Smurf1976]

This was found here https://www.reddit.com/user/thejjbug/ on reddit take it with a gain of salt as Im unsure of the data quality but interesting perspective on previous outbreaks.

I remember the swine flu rather well since I got it.

I'd say it was a real pig of a thing but that would be a lousy attempt at humor so I'll just say it was truly miserable. Only way to feel even slightly comfortable was lying flat on my back on a hard surface. So I spent literally a few days lying on the floor, getting up only when absolutely necessary.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think the economic implications are going to start happening as companies stop production, supply chains start to fail and in particular air transport in and out of China falters.

The way it looks to me, the economic costs will be mounting now no matter what happens with the virus itself, it's too late to avoid that and the question now is simply how bad will it get?

 

[qldfrog]

The way it looks to me, the economic costs will be mounting now no matter what happens with the virus itself, it's too late to avoid that and the question now is simply how bad will it get?

Agree @Smurf1976 and more specifically, how harsher it will affect Australia more than let's say the US
Which stocks could benefit, and leverage the 'she will be right mate attitude' by buying bargain shorts and offloading your affected shares
Maybe also short SEAsia stocks as places like Thailand Vietnam could be hammered too.
Interestingly BHP in oz yesterday went up: ROL
Just leveraging i am sure the expected oil and iron price surge?
Sometimes...

 

[qldfrog]

I invite you to look at the intraday asx200 for yesterday, it looks to me typical of investors off loading their assets slowly.a few rapid falls orders gets removed, then try again.Funds must have been busy

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

From my limited knowledge of this epi/pandemic it would appear that.
1. Good public health measures are in place in the developed world.
2. A vaccine is imminent.

Thus it may be, for the brave and/or risk-knowledgable, a good buying opportunity and to go short on EFT's in gold.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

From my limited knowledge of this epi/pandemic it would appear that.
1. Good public health measures are in place in the developed world.
2. A vaccine is imminent.

Thus it may be, for the brave and/or risk-knowledgable, a good buying opportunity and to go short on EFT's in gold.

gg

You mean the world powerhouse shutdowns for at least a month and we start shorting gold..
As for the vaccine, the Pasteur institute expects to be able to produce a vaccine within 20 months.imminent indeed
Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/co...asteur-promet-un-vaccin-dans-20-mois-20200131

 

[qldfrog]

Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian

BTW, this is in no way negative, in our globalist world, it could be seen as an attack

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

You mean the world powerhouse shutdowns for at least a month and we start shorting gold..
As for the vaccine, the Pasteur institute expects to be able to produce a vaccine within 20 months.imminent indeed
Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/co...asteur-promet-un-vaccin-dans-20-mois-20200131

D'accord, peut être.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Horton is editor of The Lancet

 

[qldfrog]

http://virological.org/t/clock-and-tmrca-based-on-27-genomes/347
For the science side.interesting reading

 

[basilio]

Dr Richard Horton, Editor of The Lancet, had better be seriously wrong about teh spread of this virus.

If he is even half right the Genie is out of the bottle..

“On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation...substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas...” pic.twitter.com/3eoBKwC…


richard horton
@richardhorton1
“Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in multiple major Chinese cities...”

 

[qldfrog]

CHINESE ARRIVAL BAN: Drastic measure as coronavirus spreads
If this is confirmed we have lost at least 15pc of our tourists and
Chinese tourists spent $12 billion while in Australia in 2018
So we lose 1 billion a month
Keep it rolling..just a flu

 

[qldfrog]

Knowing China, they may not be pleased
You know the Saving face attitude
I expect a few gov orders there
Like the Australian coal ban months ago.

 

[basilio]

17:20

Australian citizens coming from China will have to be quarantined for two weeks, said Morrison. Half a million masks will also be provided for those coming off flights from China, while thermometers and special screening arrangements will also be set up at airports.

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1h ago 17:12
1h ago 17:09

Australia issues China travel ban
Speaking at a press conference, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison announced that no-one travelling from mainland China would be allowed into Australia unless they are Australian citizens or residents. Entry will be denied to anyone who has left or transited through mainland China from 1 February
....................................
There goes our Universities. Chinese students represent 33% of students enrolled at our universities.
There will also be many secondary schools with a number of Chinese students
Clearly our tourist industry will be trashed.
There will be tens of thousands of Chinese business people currently in China not to mention family members.
The airline industry will similarly affected.
This is a force majeure event.


I think the stock market will be blood bath tomorrow.