Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

I do not understand the optimism in Australia: even if this is over next month,so just with the existing hit , not thinking of disease developing outside china: we are lucky, all over in 3 months
just try to guess the billions just gone in smoke, the fires impacts are nothing vs that.
Is that not obvious?, or is Qld so special?: all our mining, a walk in the cbd or on the beach ,or in the gold coast and you know who is in control economically.
maybe just another Qld specificity...

 

[sptrawler]

though you'd think the Christmas Islanders may think otherwise?

As long as they are in isolation it isn't a problem.

 

[sptrawler]

how many direct flights from China per day: with 14 days incubation and transmissin before symptom, I am not sleeping that well, few western nations have as much exposure as us to China, and the importance of China in our economy: tourism, education, raw material exports, food exports, except the baristas, few Australians do not rely on China as a whole. My house was built on the back of Chinese exports and mining giants profits

When you have lost your health, the last thing you worry about is your money ask anyone on their death bed, if they looked at the stock market recently.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

... why so many of these current outbreaks (not just flu) seem to originate in China, Africa, etc.

More a case of changing animal husbandry practice, perhaps. And what people eat. If such viruses are jumping species, then its a proximity thing. In Chinese villages, as is the case for many other Asian countries, pigs and poultry (ducks and chickens) are kept close by the inhabitants. Cultural practices of eating exotica (4 legs; yummy) exacerbate the situation. African villages are similar though it's to save their livestock from predatory animals at night that is the big issue. Or hunger (monkey meat, anyone?).

 

[Joules MM1]

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Australia said on Wednesday they have successfully developed a lab-grown version of the new coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help quicken the creation of a vaccine.

Australia scientists to share lab-grown coronavirus to hasten vaccine efforts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...BN1ZR2YD?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

 

[sptrawler]

More a case of changing animal husbandry practice, perhaps. And what people eat. If such viruses are jumping species, then its a proximity thing. In Chinese villages, as is the case for many other Asian countries, pigs and poultry (ducks and chickens) are kept close by the inhabitants. Cultural practices of eating exotica (4 legs; yummy) exacerbate the situation. African villages are similar though it's to save their livestock from predatory animals at night that is the big issue. Or hunger (monkey meat, anyone?).

Yes a breeding ground for inter species transfer of germs, nasty.

 

[qldfrog]

Yes a breeding ground for inter species transfer of germs, nasty.

Unless you believe the Lancet is fake news, believing the chinese gov version of the fish market origin does not fit.being vegan will not help if people play with CRISP and viruses in labs.
In term of economic impact Guandong province (South: macao, HK Shenzhen triangle )work start postponed to the 10/02 by decree.
My startup included
So another extra week before your iphones,electronics or computers start being built again.this cost is tremendous
Nearly 2 weeks out of 52, that's 4pc of production, and no they will not catch up on other holidays as lunar new year is THE holidays, as for overtime, it is the norm...
Also learnt the Americans bring back their people, check for fever etc in Alaska then release them..a recipe for disaster in my opinion as contagion is present before symptom.a known fact now
For once Australia plan makes more sense.
Keeping up with development and increased costs

 

[sptrawler]

Some aren't keen on a couple of weeks on a tropical Island apparently.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...istmas-island-evacuation-20200129-p53vue.html

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The world is over-populated and these events will become more common.

We are looking at a population negative feedback loop.

Be fit, get vaccinated and don't stress.

The economic effect will only be obvious in retrospect. Stay as you are and invest on your gut feelings.

Hold Gold and Cash for the end-times and buy stable stocks when all is woe

gg

 

[SirRumpole]

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Australia said on Wednesday they have successfully developed a lab-grown version of the new coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help quicken the creation of a vaccine.

Australia scientists to share lab-grown coronavirus to hasten vaccine efforts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...BN1ZR2YD?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

Silly, they should have kept it to themselves, patented it and made a fortune.

Where is their entrepreneurial spirit ?

 

[Smurf1976]

I do not understand the optimism in Australia

I think that on the part of the average citizen it comes down largely to not understanding the issue itself.

Things like floods, fires, earthquakes etc people can understand the potential consequences fairly easily.

Things of an engineering nature most people can understand if given a layman's terms explanation of what has happened and what that means in practical terms. Dispense with the technical terms, explain what's happened and what needs to happen to fix it, and whilst they may not like the news the average person can at least understand how serious it is and so on.

Viruses though, well that's a very long way out of the average person's field of knowledge and it's not the most straightforward thing to explain especially given that the experts are themselves still getting their minds around the detail of this one.

So the average person really has no idea is my thinking.

 

[sptrawler]

Viruses though, well that's a very long way out of the average person's field of knowledge and it's not the most straightforward thing to explain especially given that the experts are themselves still getting their minds around the detail of this one.

So the average person really has no idea is my thinking.

Also the way that the SARS and ebola scares were overcome, without much fallout in the recent past, probably makes people think the same will happen with this coronavirus.
The problem with the 24/7 news media, it all becomes a bit mind numbing IMO and people treat it all a bit like crying wolf.
Untill it gets really serious and 1,000's die, I think the general public just think 'here we go again'.
It is a bit like there was a call to get Australians out, now that it will mean a 14 day stay on Christmas Island, the media is now reporting those trapped are having second thoughts about being evacuated. Why? it is either serious or not, and if it is, why are people having second thoughts?
Just my opinion.

 

[Smurf1976]

The problem with the 24/7 news media, it all becomes a bit mind numbing IMO and people treat it all a bit like crying wolf.

Very true.

If someone had said very publicly (front page news etc) 3 months ago that Australia would face massive fires this Summer they'd have been ridiculed and found themselves constantly being mocked as scare mongering.

We're in a situation where a lot of people simply don't believe that anything bad is even remotely possible.

Meanwhile the trend of doubling every 2 days remains intact, there are now 7 confirmed cases in Australia and the economic costs continue to mount.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at the market aspects of this, I'll note that thus far the trend remains intact that the number infected is doubling approximately every 48 hours.

If that remains the case then I'd think we'll see a panic in the markets before this is sorted. Perhaps reaching 100,000 people infected will trigger it? Perhaps 1 million? Perhaps it needs to turn up in New York City or London?

If it keeps spreading though then at some point I think we'll see a panic and assets being dumped at fire sale prices.

 

[sptrawler]

Looking at the market aspects of this, I'll note that thus far the trend remains intact that the number infected is doubling approximately every 48 hours.

If that remains the case then I'd think we'll see a panic in the markets before this is sorted. Perhaps reaching 100,000 people infected will trigger it? Perhaps 1 million? Perhaps it needs to turn up in New York City or London?

If it keeps spreading though then at some point I think we'll see a panic and assets being dumped at fire sale prices.

Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.

As I see it, China is the world's second largest economy and ranks right up there in importance on most matters. Pick a statistic and they're in first or second place with most things.

The stark reality though is reports like this: https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...k/news-story/cd07b7cbe6855493d668af70531ca5d4

If it's even half accurate then the economic costs of this are truly massive and it's only a matter of time until we see that reflected in, among other things, China's imports of coal, oil and gas (since virtually all economic activity uses some form of energy and in practice in China any reduction will mean less need to import fuels).

They could possibly keep buying coal and just stockpile it on the ground, same with metal ores they can be stored in the open if need be, but that doesn't work with oil or gas, once the tanks are full that's it you can't store any more, and once traders work out that China's buying less of the stuff that'll send the alarm bells ringing very loudly as to the extent of the situation I expect.

 

[Smurf1976]

As just one example of the economic implications, apparently P2 masks are now rather hard to obtain in Australia.

Not an issue for most people but if you're a tradie doing work that WHS regulations say requires a mask, and you're out of masks, well then you and your customers have a problem. In due course so too does whatever other tradie who's waiting on you to do your bit before they do theirs. Etc. Slowly grinding to a halt.

Then there's the now numerous airlines which have cancelled flights to and from China. That doesn't just mean less planes in the air but it means less work for all associated people on the ground from fuel to taxi drivers to cleaners.

And so on. There's rather a lot of things which might not involve someone personally going to China, they might never have been to China or even be able to find it on a map, but they'll still be affected if their job involves servicing something that's no longer operating or doing something that ends up being on hold due to a shortage of something or waiting for someone else who has a shortage of something they need. Etc.

It's going to take quite some time for all this to filter through. There's so much complexity that even working out exactly what ends up being affected would be a major exercise in itself.

 

[qldfrog]

Economically, Wuhan is the Detroit of China:
In China, manufacturing is located in cities with a very high specialisation focus.
in Wuhan, it is the car industry so expect abysmal or fake car production numbers next months for China. Oil will go down

 

[qldfrog]

I see that as a relatively low risk as return bet:
People tell me they are basing investment on an hypothetical 2C warming of temperature in 80y, yet the warrant market or bboz for Australian exposure to a major collapse in its main market is unchanged..duhhhh
How much do you loose by getting out of shares and into cash gold safe haven for a month even if the market ends up going up at 20pc a year?
On the other end...
I take odds like that
Once again, this is even if we learn we can cure this with 2 aspirins next month.
The already existing economic damages are abysmal in China.profit from the overall ignorance here.
Do not rush too quickly to sell, 8 still have a few shares to offload

 

[greggles]

Just as I suspected. We'll probably never know the real death toll. This is the sort of thing that inevitably happens in a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society.