Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[moXJO]

China town in Sydney is deserted. Restaurants are doing it extremely tough and I feel sorry for the poor buggers.
One of my Thai friends was asked if she was Chinese in an uber. She just coughed a lot as the driver recoiled in horror.

People are pretty stupid. 20000 children died from hunger yesterday. ABS statistics showed 1,200 people died due to influenza in 2017in Australia , Prof Robert booy said modelling showed the actual number of deaths on average each season was about 3,000 to 4,000. This flu season will be telling.

I often wonder if this flu has been hyped up to hurt the Chinese economy some more after the trade war with the US. There is a very savage and real propaganda attack against the communist regime that has been going on for a while. These panics do come around every so often though.

Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.

 

[bigdog]

Investors are bracing for the worst day for Australian shares this year, on escalating fears about the damage to economic growth from the deadly coronavirus.

The ASX is set to tumble when trading starts today, with futures pointing to a 1.7 per cent, or 119 point, drop in the S&P/ASX 200 index as investors try to gauge the impact of the virus on growth.

Steep losses are also expected across the rest of Asia today, with Nikkei 225 futures pointing to a 2.1 per cent loss. Wall Street tumbled hard on Friday, with the Dow down 2.1 per cent, the S&P 500 dropping 1.8 per cent and the Nasdaq shedding 1.6 per cent.

Chinese financial markets are set to reopen today for the first time since January 23 as investors return from the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Futures for the mainland CSI 300 index were showing a 3.6 per cent loss when they last traded on January 23.

New Zealand NZ 50 is currently down -2.03%

 

[joeno]

I often wonder if this flu has been hyped up to hurt the Chinese economy some more after the trade war with the US. There is a very savage and real propaganda attack against the communist regime that has been going on for a while. These panics do come around every so often though.

Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.

I remember the American Swine Flu from 2009 that killed 200,000. Sourced from US Pigs brought in to Mexico. Didn't see flights being banned to the US and everyone having a stroke about it.

There's a theory going in China that perhaps the Coronavirus was introduced by American agents in November 2019 - coincidentally when they had an international trade conference - as a way to begrudge the Chinese government to the whims of the American trade war terms. And to incite an economic downturn (the FBI have been proven to have subverted governments across South America and the ME)

It's kind of convenient they decided it came from snakes / bats / whatever without proof... when most of the initial hosts of the virus were found to not have shopped at the virus. Anyways take this as you will. Crock theory or not.

The prejudice against mainland China is jarring. It's like being the fat boy at school who gets bullied by everyone. Doesn't matter what he does it's wrong and will get him in trouble. It's clear the US hates that a country who does not completely kowtow to them is #2 economic power in the world (in addition to other reasons).

The American government feels like they can assassinate a political figure that they think threatens their people (the Iranian general). Well the DPP regime in Taiwan threatens the populace of China with their pointed missiles and policies of hate and discrimination. E.g. by banning the export of virus masks to China at this current moment. Can the communist government start drone striking Taiwanese politicians? They're the bad guys right so surely they should be doing bad things.

We must be living in a world where good people do bad things and bad people don't. what a world.

 

[sptrawler]

IMO a lot will depend on how the virus is transmitted, whether by hand or airborn, with SARS it was transferred by hand so relatively easy to contain spray and wipe everything. Airborn not so easy without isolation, which seems to be what is happening.
If it is airborn, respirators will be in big demand, not the paper masks people are wearing. Companies like Ansell could see some movement.
Just my opinion.

Well this could be good news, if you can call any news on the virus good news.
But early results are indicating the virus look as though it is transmitted by the anal/ oral route, if so masks are not required, hand washing and wiping everything down, will be the answer.
Lets hope so, because IMO, it will be much easier to contain and eradicate, that is of course unless it gets into schools, kids have always got their fingers in their mouths.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...l-oral-route-xinhua-reports?srnd=premium-asia

The results have echoed similar findings elsewhere, including in Wuhan,
the epicentre of the virus outbreak
, and the United States, with some scientists saying the research shows it was possible the virus was transmitted via human excrement.


Researchers at Shi Zhengli’s Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is administered by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, found nucleic acids in stool samples and anal swabs from a group of coronavirus pneumonia patients in the city, according to a report from state news agency Xinhua.


The scientists concluded that the virus could be transmitted “to a certain degree” via facecal-oral transmission

 

[againsthegrain]

I remember the American Swine Flu from 2009 that killed 200,000. Sourced from US Pigs brought in to Mexico. Didn't see flights being banned to the US and everyone having a stroke about it.

There's a theory going in China that perhaps the Coronavirus was introduced by American agents in November 2019 - coincidentally when they had an international trade conference - as a way to begrudge the Chinese government to the whims of the American trade war terms. And to incite an economic downturn (the FBI have been proven to have subverted governments across South America and the ME)

It's kind of convenient they decided it came from snakes / bats / whatever without proof... when most of the initial hosts of the virus were found to not have shopped at the virus. Anyways take this as you will. Crock theory or not.

The prejudice against mainland China is jarring. It's like being the fat boy at school who gets bullied by everyone. Doesn't matter what he does it's wrong and will get him in trouble. It's clear the US hates that a country who does not completely kowtow to them is #2 economic power in the world (in addition to other reasons).

The American government feels like they can assassinate a political figure that they think threatens their people (the Iranian general). Well the DPP regime in Taiwan threatens the populace of China with their pointed missiles and policies of hate and discrimination. E.g. by banning the export of virus masks to China at this current moment. Can the communist government start drone striking Taiwanese politicians? They're the bad guys right so surely they should be doing bad things.

We must be living in a world where good people do bad things and bad people don't. what a world.

More like China is the fat boy bully who pushes everybody around in the region for their lunch money, e.g south china sea

 

[qldfrog]

I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks

 

[sptrawler]

I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks

Maybe now we know why China built all these empty cities, maybe a lot of these old areas where sanitation and close proximity living with livestock is a major problem, are going to be bulldozed?
Just a thought.

 

[moXJO]

I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks

It was a massive media beat up and you have to wonder why. I don't remember similar during MERS. I doubt most people would have heard of it.

No matter how it started, the media is often weaponized against unfriendly nations

 

[qldfrog]

Maybe now we know why China built all these empty cities, maybe a lot of these old areas where sanitation and close proximity living with livestock is a major problem, are going to be bulldozed?
Just a thought.

Honestly, i believe the current crisis has more to do with a mistake in handling specimens in their research lab then any hygiene issue
Doubt we will know the answer, but having lived and worked in China, there are a lot of shortcuts in procedures, a go go go faster harder mindset does miracle to build cities and building in no time, less positive in handling viruses or even coding bug free software.
Latest figures:361 deaths, 17.2k contaminated
We really have to check the number of outside China propagation as this will be the real indicator of potential pandemic, and realistic death and contamination rate outside the official party line
Just sold FMG put warrant bought last week at 40c, sold today at 60c
Will compensate partly the losses on my 2 systems, i keep the rio put warrant as a further edge.paper profit similar but i played small so not that much.gold and bboz going well, no regret on any of the non system share sells or super portfolio moves

 

[fergee]

Tokyo 2020 olympics may end up being a flop if the Yen continues to strengthen and people are still scared to travel heading into (northern) summer. A lot of investment currently in Japan into building hotels and tourist related infrastructure.

 

[fergee]

Right now I think we are possibly about to leave the denial phase and enter the fear phase.

I do question whether there has a been euphoric/exuberant price action over the past year so it could be interesting to see what sort of recovery we have after the coronavirus threat pass's and the correction is over. Also wether or not this event does lead to a recessionary out come.

 

[fergee]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12305503
Bird flu detected in Hunan, China.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.

That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.

If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.

 

[moXJO]

That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.

If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.

The West has this mentality that every flu is the zombie apocalypse. Every bushfire is the opening of hell. And every slight of one country towards another the next world war.

 

[Smurf1976]

Tokyo 2020 olympics may end up being a flop if the Yen continues to strengthen and people are still scared to travel heading into (northern) summer. A lot of investment currently in Japan into building hotels and tourist related infrastructure.

I can see this scenario with a lot of events and so on.

Even for purely domestic things I’d expect that at least some will stay away due to concerns about being among large crowds etc.

That then has flow on effects to all sorts of businesses.

 

[Smurf1976]

The West has this mentality that every flu is the zombie apocalypse. Every bushfire is the opening of hell. And every slight of one country towards another the next world war.

Agreed that’s true at least so far as the mainstream media is concerned but in this case the Chinese themselves have well and truly stoked the fire.

Multiple large cities locked down, people told to not even venture outside, new hospitals built in a hurry and so on.

Those are not rational responses if it’s just a common flu situation and directly add to concerns that it’s far more serious.

 

[qldfrog]

That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.

If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.

Panic because of what people in china know, the queues in hospital and morgue clog up etc etc
I am 80pc sure it is much much worse than the worse number released.why would the chinese gov stop the whole of the nation for 2 weeks, why would Guandong province, 1000km away mandate an extra 10 days holiday? To follow the CIA desire?
The frightening side is the most probably man made side of it, so no immunity, potentially designed aspects such as contagious before symptoms and what else?
Potentially as well mutating rapidly and so not responding to vaccine?
There is a lot to be scare of, far more than pig or bird flu, and obviously common glu.
A killer but no way as contagious or lethal.
Anyway, i ieally like seeing some of the denialists it is nothing actually coming from the CC fanatics
Discarding something than can be proven in the next 3 weeks while ready to annihilate our economy for what might have maybe some effects in 80 years .Show you when belief takes over rationality

 

[moXJO]

Agreed that’s true at least so far as the mainstream media is concerned but in this case the Chinese themselves have well and truly stoked the fire.

Multiple large cities locked down, people told to not even venture outside, new hospitals built in a hurry and so on.

Those are not rational responses if it’s just a common flu situation and directly add to concerns that it’s far more serious.

They took criticism after the SARS debacle. It deeply impacts China every time a flu gets out of control. I'd guess it's more about economic reasons and not letting it spread and prolong the situation.

I've been told tour buses have been hit hard in Australia. Opera house steps are empty. Chinese supermarkets, restaurants are doing it tough.

 

[sptrawler]

Dropping the grandkids at the local school today, I expected to see face masks everywhere as 90% are Asian, not one to be seen.
Obviously people aren't too concerned, or maybe it is just our local area.

 

[basilio]

Apparently a vaccine to protect against the Coronavirus will take around 20 months - if all goes well..

My colleague Kim Willsher has passed along some good news from the Pasteur Institute in Paris, which announced at the weekend that it had managed to isolate and grow a culture of this coronavirus. That means it is available for research, which puts scientists on track to develop a vaccine.

However, that isn’t a quick process. Christophe D’Enfert, a scientific director with the Pasteur Institute, told reporters in Paris the vaccine could be made available in 20 months if “all goes well”.

“At the end of August, we could enter clinical trials and, provided all goes well, obtain a vaccine candidate within 20 months,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ts-latest-news-death-toll-climbs-passing-sars