Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Dona Ferentes]

Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.

took $50K off last week. Lightened off on the speccies; and this means I won't sell good assets at bad times, if that situation arises.

 

[macca]

I think the lack of concern in Aussies is typical "she will be right Mate"

Most people who work for a living have tuned out of the 24/7 media frenzy

The scare mongering on SARS, the annual panic about the almost useless flu shots and the incessant, hysterical shrieking about climate change/catastrophe has caused a high degree of scepticism of what is presented as "news" by today's media

However, Asian folk have a completely different view, in my area we get a lot of tourists of Asian descent who often wear face masks.

The most common are from China, Korea and Japan and up to 50% of women will have a mask on.

I would expect that in most Chinese cities people have a stockpile of masks so not that big a change to their habits but if this continues to worsen a shortage could lead to panic in the populace.

Here in Oz the obvious solution is to quarantine everyone who has been to China recently for 14 days in their own home.

No different to staying home with any other illness and very cheap to implement.

 

[fergee]

I think the lack of concern in Aussies is typical "she will be right Mate"

Most people who work for a living have tuned out of the 24/7 media frenzy

The scare mongering on SARS, the annual panic about the almost useless flu shots and the incessant, hysterical shrieking about climate change/catastrophe has caused a high degree of scepticism of what is presented as "news" by today's media

However, Asian folk have a completely different view, in my area we get a lot of tourists of Asian descent who often wear face masks.

The most common are from China, Korea and Japan and up to 50% of women will have a mask on.

I would expect that in most Chinese cities people have a stockpile of masks so not that big a change to their habits but if this continues to worsen a shortage could lead to panic in the populace.

Here in Oz the obvious solution is to quarantine everyone who has been to China recently for 14 days in their own home.

No different to staying home with any other illness and very cheap to implement.

Asian woman don't necessarily wear a mask because they are sick or dont want to get sick they often wear a mask so they dont have to put make up on or because the they think their teeth, mouth, nose etc is ugly and they are trying to hide it. Pollen is another reason a lot of people wear masks if they have allergies.

The mask shortage is here already most websites are sold out and people are hoarding and reselling for massive mark ups.

From my experience, here in Japan, the common masks that are used are the cheaper style that dont really block much more than pollen. The culture in asia is even if sick to still go out to work, shopping and not to stay home and rest and not spread the bug around. Wearing a mask is NOT about not giving a flu/cold to other people it is purely about not catching one or hiding ones face.

Gotta love the she'll be right mate attitude

 

[qldfrog]

170 people, and confirmed cases a total of 7,711 as per last chinese releases.
So these are the Chinese official numbers..to take with a reasonable amount of doubt obviously

 

[fergee]

An interesting economic aspect of this is that people are trying to cash in eg Buying and reselling masks.
Just came across a bar today that's caused a bit of stir in NZ by this promotion they did get a bit of backlash for it....theres opportunity in crisis after all.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just as I suspected. We'll probably never know the real death toll. This is the sort of thing that inevitably happens in a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society.

This chap writes for The Guardian, itself " a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society."

gg

 

[qldfrog]

ROL @Garpal Gumnut but I think we can all agree that the Chinese figures can not be taken at face value, I just hope they keep the same reduction factor so that comparison can be done.
If it get worse, we might have no more figure at all-> if this happens, then it is time to oil your gun and get all the Spam cans from Woollies

 

[fergee]

House bar doubled down on there advert after pulling the previous add. (Hamiltron is the std capital of NZ just for reference)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Some families said they would prefer to stay in Wuhan — the epicentre of virus that has infected more than 7,000 and killed 170 — rather than send their children to [] Christmas Island...

actually the ABC reports it as the Christmas Island Detention Centre. What's wrong with these people ! (not ?)

Quarantine is for the benefit of all. Forty days in the desert.

 

[Joules MM1]

Chernobyl

you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die

and didnt

in Australia alone 3500 people on average per year die of ....the flu
how many people will die this year directly resultant: Alzheimers, heart disease, HIV or hypertension?
answer tens of thousands ...here, in Australia

people are primed for the fear for themselves, fear is an expression and not an actual calculated reaction that provides any edge to action

peak terrorist fear has passed by, but, that's not a headline, comparatively, terrorism has plummeted yet not matched by the fear of terrorism

if your topical news or social media reflex is not immediately checkable how do you know it's reliable ?
how do you know that your reaction to what youre receiving is not merely a reflection of yourself ?

the cost of the current (fill in the blank) is not the thing itself rather it is the disposition to the thing itself

of course this post comes across as philosophical and if your triggered to fear you'll dismiss it.... in the instance of effective action how effective is fear ?

that was fun, where's my beer ...la cerveza mas fina

 

[qldfrog]

Chernobyl

you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die

and didnt

in Australia alone 3500 people on average per year die of ....the flu
how many people will die this year directly resultant: Alzheimers, heart disease, HIV or hypertension?
answer tens of thousands ...here, in Australia

people are primed for the fear for themselves, fear is an expression and not an actual calculated reaction that provides any edge to action

peak terrorist fear has passed by, but, that's not a headline, comparatively, terrorism has plummeted yet not matched by the fear of terrorism

if your topical news or social media reflex is not immediately checkable how do you know it's reliable ?
how do you know that your reaction to what youre receiving is not merely a reflection of yourself ?

the cost of the current (fill in the blank) is not the thing itself rather it is the disposition to the thing itself

of course this post comes across as philosophical and if your triggered to fear you'll dismiss it.... in the instance of effective action how effective is fear ?

that was fun, where's my beer ...la cerveza mas fina

View attachment 100019

WHO declaring global emergency.
It seems it was under intense pressure by China not to, before based on article i read in french news yesterday.
Borders being closed and airline closing routes.
Special hospital setup in Sydney.
Just a flu..sure..
From what i have read so far: 2 to 3pc death rate for people treated with access to hospital etc
Hospitalisation required for 25pc of affected people( need of hospital to survive, outside the diagnostic, quarantine measure etc)
Can spread people to people without especially close contact: waiter, bus driver, colleague at meetings
Already drastic economic costs in China, costs now spreading OS.
Imho, Australia is the most exposed economically of all western countries.How long before OS/funds and local investors do their sums and wake up.who will counter balance here?
RBA buying shares as they do in the US and Japan?

 

[againsthegrain]

Chernobyl

you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die

and didnt

in Australia alone 3500 people on average per year die of ....the flu
how many people will die this year directly resultant: Alzheimers, heart disease, HIV or hypertension?
answer tens of thousands ...here, in Australia

people are primed for the fear for themselves, fear is an expression and not an actual calculated reaction that provides any edge to action

peak terrorist fear has passed by, but, that's not a headline, comparatively, terrorism has plummeted yet not matched by the fear of terrorism

if your topical news or social media reflex is not immediately checkable how do you know it's reliable ?
how do you know that your reaction to what youre receiving is not merely a reflection of yourself ?

the cost of the current (fill in the blank) is not the thing itself rather it is the disposition to the thing itself

of course this post comes across as philosophical and if your triggered to fear you'll dismiss it.... in the instance of effective action how effective is fear ?

that was fun, where's my beer ...la cerveza mas fina

View attachment 100019

if they were coke bottles you could call them cokeheads

 

[qldfrog]

Numbers to keep in mind
92,100 hospital beds in Australia
Obviously most of them used.. would be interesting to know actual capacity for emergencies like that.
You postpone surgeries, add a few beds.anyone in healthcare aware of figures there?

 

[joeno]

It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires?

Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic.

And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response

The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).

Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.

 

[againsthegrain]

The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).

Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't called Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.

Chinese buying baby formula products from homegrown Australian companies is not racism. If you think that you're thick.

yes buying baby forumla is not racist but its selfish, all for profit and look after their own. So in the same sense we should be selfish too look after our own and protect ourselves from the Chinese virus yes it originated in china so its a fair name. Not letting infected people in to minimise our chances of infection is not racist you would have to be thick to think that.

 

[qldfrog]

The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).

Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.

Yes it is a Chinese virus, moreover it is not even impossible for it to be a Chinese made virus.you need to cool down, i think the response in Australia has been quite gentle
Anyway an interesting article about the economic effects:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html

 

[fergee]

@qldfrog is right guys(@againsthegrain @joeno ) please let cooler heads prevail and be careful of using ad hominem when we discuss this matter together.

Let's try and keep it civil and on topic, the thread is in regard's to the economic impact of the coronavirus not perceived injustices.

 

[qldfrog]

213 death,9692 cases last count

 

[Smurf1976]

The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).

Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.

On one hand agreed that China doesn't seem to have done anything nasty to Australia in regard to the fires. At least not to my knowledge.

On the other hand, most people aren't medical experts so technical terms are best avoided. The virus started in China, it has thus far been concentrated there, so I don't see the media calling it "China virus" is really any different to saying "Japan earthquake", "Queensland flood" or "US shooting" etc. Grammatically perhaps not ideal but the meaning is readily understood.

In any event, I don't think anyone on this forum is intentionally being racist etc so let's go forward.....

 

[SirRumpole]

As just one example of the economic implications, apparently P2 masks are now rather hard to obtain in Australia.

Maybe there are a lot of Chinese buying them and sending them home with the baby formula.