Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[sptrawler]

April 18th to run out of ICU beds

https://sites.google.com/view/corona-daily-au/

That's interesting, yesterday you posted that we would run out of ICU beds by April 8th.
Does that mean the infection rate has slowed, or recovery has improved?

 

[sptrawler]

As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds April 8th only 15 days away

New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away

https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak

Found it, so it definitely is moving.

 

[moXJO]

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2

Given how critical of the rest of the world's response has been. It's important to understand that we didn't need to be here in the first place.

 

[jbocker]

A lot of data on this site:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Zoom in and click on the cities etc for specific data.

It's not perfect and doesn't answer everything you asked but seems reasonable and I note from news footage this seems to be the exact same page that WHO and others are displaying on the wall, it looks identical in layout and content etc, so presumably it's legit.

Brilliant site!
Is there much word about Indonesia the worlds 4th largest populated country - no statistics displayed.
I would guess there is little capability to test and record. It is probably hell on earth there.

 

[ducati916]

Due to COVID-19 being a pandemic, the economic consequences are global and therefore magnified. Here is the data from the 1918 pandemic. Obviously conditions were different being post WW1, but it still remains a valid measure.





jog on
duc

 

[IFocus]

In case anyone hasn't thought about this but action today is up to 14 days before you get results.

Infection rates today are a result from up 14 days past.

 

[sptrawler]

Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.

Things might not be as bad as first thought, Jbocker was right, Bas will be on anti depressants.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...ing-coronavirus-pandemic-20200326-p54e0e.html
From the article:
US President Donald Trump's approval ratings have hit an all-time high during the coronavirus crisis, with a majority of Americans saying they approve of his handling of the pandemic.

The development - evident across a range of recent polls - has astounded Trump's critics who expected the American public to judge him harshly for his often misleading and erratic response to the outbreak.
The country's two most closely-watched polling aggregators both show Trump recording his best approval ratings since he took office. RealClearPolitics puts him at 46.3 per cent approval and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight at 44.6 per cent.

 

[basilio]

Dr Norman Swans latest podcast offers an insight into how to break the COVID 19 outbreak in 4-6 weeks.

ttps://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/the-tantalising-scheme-to-fix-coronavirus-in-only-six-weeks/12090206

 

[jbocker]

Is there much word about Indonesia the worlds 4th largest populated country - no statistics displayed.

Sorry Folks The statistics are there just wasn't centred over the island I thought better represented Indonesia. It is one of the data points on Borneo.
790 cases 58 deaths. This is going to get very very bad.

 

[moXJO]

Things might not be as bad as first thought, Jbocker was right, Bas will be on anti depressants.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...ing-coronavirus-pandemic-20200326-p54e0e.html
From the article:
US President Donald Trump's approval ratings have hit an all-time high during the coronavirus crisis, with a majority of Americans saying they approve of his handling of the pandemic.

The development - evident across a range of recent polls - has astounded Trump's critics who expected the American public to judge him harshly for his often misleading and erratic response to the outbreak.
The country's two most closely-watched polling aggregators both show Trump recording his best approval ratings since he took office. RealClearPolitics puts him at 46.3 per cent approval and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight at 44.6 per cent.

Polls indicate Biden is ahead by a lot. But it's about a year till election and a lot can happen.
Off the figures, I don't think trump can win.

 

[againsthegrain]

Polls indicate Biden is ahead by a lot. But it's about a year till election and a lot can happen.
Off the figures, I don't think trump can win.

unless he pulls the vaccine from his hat

 

[Dona Ferentes]

This is a link to work done by Warwick McKibbon on possible economic effects of Covid-19 on world economy. ...but only a recent Q&A. The work seems to date from Feb rather than more recent.

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/what-...ail&utm_term=0_953154ac75-3af2de19d7-83781601

 

[moXJO]

unless he pulls the vaccine from his hat

Or Bidens alzheimer's really kicks in. Or covid knocks one of them off.
Too many variables I suppose.

 

[IFocus]

US is looking bad




https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028

 

[IFocus]

Or Bidens alzheimer's really kicks in. Or covid knocks one of them off.
Too many variables I suppose.

What sort of process / system puts people like Biden and Trump into power

 

[InsvestoBoy]

In case anyone hasn't thought about this but action today is up to 14 days before you get results.

Infection rates today are a result from up 14 days past.

I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.

The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.

On the 11th there were 65 infections.

Yesterday there were 1065 infections.

This number is doubling every 4 days. And these are **** NSW Health numbers where they only test people who have been overseas and have the worst symptoms or people who have been in close contact with someone who is a confirmed case. These are **** numbers that take a week to catch up to reality because the backlog of tests is so high, the numbers we see today are probably a week or so old. These are numbers that don't take into account all the people in the service economy who have to keep working and potentially spreading the disease from young to old because they couldn't get tested so their boss told them they have to keep coming to work.

If the **** numbers keep going at this rate, in 2 weeks from now we are talking 8500 infections in NSW.

For a disease that 15-20% of people who get infected need an ICU bed. That's 1700 people.

NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body. Do you think that the **** NSW numbers will matter once old people start turning up with horrible pneumonia to the ICU?

These idiots in power are waiting for the numbers to get worse to do what is necessary but I don't know why they don't seem to realise once they numbers get worse it will be too late.

If they are trying to save the economy by playing a game of chicken with this virus, do they not realise that people aren't going to give a **** about work if their loved ones can't get an ICU bed?

I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters, I'm not. So none of this surprises me, this is pretty much exactly what I would expect from both the Federal and State Libs. But nonetheless, I feel they are toying with our lives in a way that is murderously negligent and despite my lack of surprise I am supremely freaked out and angry.

 

[IFocus]

I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.

The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.

On the 11th there were 65 infections.

Yesterday there were 1065 infections.

This number is doubling every 4 days. And these are **** NSW Health numbers where they only test people who have been overseas and have the worst symptoms or people who have been in close contact with someone who is a confirmed case. These are **** numbers that take a week to catch up to reality because the backlog of tests is so high, the numbers we see today are probably a week or so old. These are numbers that don't take into account all the people in the service economy who have to keep working and potentially spreading the disease from young to old because they couldn't get tested so their boss told them they have to keep coming to work.

If the **** numbers keep going at this rate, in 2 weeks from now we are talking 8500 infections in NSW.

For a disease that 15-20% of people who get infected need an ICU bed. That's 1700 people.

NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body. Do you think that the **** NSW numbers will matter once old people start turning up with horrible pneumonia to the ICU?

These idiots in power are waiting for the numbers to get worse to do what is necessary but I don't know why they don't seem to realise once they numbers get worse it will be too late.

If they are trying to save the economy by playing a game of chicken with this virus, do they not realise that people aren't going to give a **** about work if their loved ones can't get an ICU bed?

I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters, I'm not. So none of this surprises me, this is pretty much exactly what I would expect from both the Federal and State Libs. But nonetheless, I feel they are toying with our lives in a way that is murderously negligent and despite my lack of surprise I am supremely freaked out and angry.

A close friend got told yesterday by his specialist that he was a "DNV".

He has a immune disease and doing really well on a drug test trial if he gets Corona unlikely to survive.

BTW "DNV" means do not ventilate.

These decisions are being made now.

Regardless of the federal government at least the WA government have been pretty up front and so far making reasonably good calls.

 

[moXJO]

What sort of process / system puts people like Biden and Trump into power

God only knows. Power and corruption seem to go hand in hand.
Not a brilliant choice for the US. One guy doesn't know what he is doing. The other doesn't know where he is.

 

[moXJO]

If they are trying to save the economy by playing a game of chicken with this virus, do they not realise that people aren't going to give a **** about work if their loved ones can't get an ICU bed?

I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters, I'm not. So none of this surprises me, this is pretty much exactly what I would expect from both the Federal and State Libs. But nonetheless, I feel they are toying with our lives in a way that is murderously negligent and despite my lack of surprise I am supremely freaked out and angry.

I agree. I know the libs are trying to play it sensible and used measured response. But it should have just locked down early. The original plan I heard a few weeks back was: make it to school holidays. Not going to happen. Better they act while it is manageable.

It will be a tsunami of patients at this rate. Our hospitals can't cope with a Friday night. How our health officials can sit there and think this won't get out of control very quickly is beyond me.

 

[SirRumpole]

The main danger is fear.

Fear of getting the virus, fear of not being able to get essential supplies, fear of not getting medical attention, fear of not being able to pay the bills.

Fear brings panic and discontent with government. Discontent and fear could breed violence like we've already seen at supermarkets. It could happen in Centrelink queues or against people 'suspected' of being infected.

To successfully handle the situation, the government has to attack all these sources of fear. First it has to flatten off the infection curve otherwise an increasing number of cases could see competition for resources. Doctors and nurses could get sick and this would make matters worse. A total lockdown of nothing essential seems inevitable, including schools. Hit it hard and hit it quick and be prepared to use tough tactics to enforce the isolation. Norman Swan reckons it could be done in a few weeks. I hope he's right.