Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

The main danger is fear.

Fear of getting the virus, fear of not being able to get essential supplies, fear of not getting medical attention, fear of not being able to pay the bills.

Fear brings panic and discontent with government. Discontent and fear could breed violence like we've already seen at supermarkets. It could happen in Centrelink queues or against people 'suspected' of being infected.

To successfully handle the situation, the government has to attack all these sources of fear. First it has to flatten off the infection curve otherwise an increasing number of cases could see competition for resources. Doctors and nurses could get sick and this would make matters worse. A total lockdown of nothing essential seems inevitable, including schools. Hit it hard and hit it quick and be prepared to use tough tactics to enforce the isolation. Norman Swan reckons it could be done in a few weeks. I hope he's right.

Just look at Spain. Workers allegedly left nursing homes and the elderly were found dead in their beds. Looks worse then italy at the moment.
 
I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.

The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.

On the 11th there were 65 infections.

Yesterday there were 1065 infections.

This number is doubling every 4 days.

Yep, reality is that a lot of people seem to not grasp the concept of compound growth. If they did then pretty much their entire world view would change in an instant.

Constant compounding growth, of anything, ends up an impossibly big number and that usually means disaster.

NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body.

I've had a family member spend considerable time in ICU some years ago following a "routine" operation which went wrong.

They're permanently on the list to never be given anesthetic ever again. Took months to wake them up last time and the whole ICU environment is pretty full on yes.

Simple reality is that the system does not have capacity to cope with a major outbreak of this disease without a lot of people ending up dead and quite a few more surviving but with their lungs stuffed. There's plenty of people in the community, not just old ones either, who are dead if they get this.

I'd liken it to catching a bus. The only way to do it requires that at some point you are ahead of the bus, the bus stops and you get on. Constantly running down the road behind it, never getting in front, means you're failing and will not be getting on the bus. You need to get in front at some point and board the bus. It's much the same with this virus - we need to have action that's stronger than the virus' spread at that point in time. Sooner we do it, the less drastic that action needs to be but it needs to jump in front of the curve not run behind it.

I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters

In my case I'll give any of them a kick when they deserve it. Sadly Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation etc all play politics rather than leading and all are failures at the practical application of really basic mathematics. All play the same games just twisted to fit whatever issues they choose to run with.

It's a sad reality that the average self-employed tradesman or school canteen has better accounting systems than the political parties are able to implement when it comes to policy. I mean seriously, look into the detail of policy and they all struggle to not give favours to certain interests, claim credit for things already done or which are inevitable regardless of what they do and so on.

Minor detail aside, we'd be in a broadly similar situation no matter who was in government.

Consider how many warnings governments and opposition parties have received over the years from doctors, environmental scientists, engineers and so on about various things. All ignored or close to it by all the significant parties unless grabbing a token piece of it suits their objectives.

Wouldn't it be a real nuisance if we get the virus sorted, tell everyone it's back to business as usual, then have to promptly shut everything not essential once again this time because there's a crisis with power supply, gas, water or whatever. The chance of that is not zero by the way, indeed it's more likely than a virus pandemic, but governments of all persuasions continue to ignore the warnings and hope it doesn't happen. Someday it will...... :2twocents
 
While I have no doubt there are good arguments for (and against) the hard lockdown option it seems like some of the calls for a hard lockdown have almost a masochistic quality to them. "Humanity has sinned and now we must be punished" It's similar to some of the sentiment you see with the climate change debate.
 
Beware, the hoarders are out in force once again:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/2292c9ce3b9ea5bbc55ff7cc1b8f299c

Under the new, temporary restrictions, which came into effect today, shoppers will be restricted to a maximum of four items per person for cleaning and storage products, gardens sprayers and batteries.

There will be a maximum of one item per customer for generators, gas bottles, respirators or face masks, fuel cans, methylated spirits and turpentine.

Garden sprayers? Batteries? Turpentine? Generators?

If anyone thinks we can electrocute the virus and get rid of it then I'm sure I can organise far more power than you'll get out of any portable generator sold in a hardware shop. :roflmao:

As for running around the garden spraying turps everywhere :eek:
 
While I have no doubt there are good arguments for (and against) the hard lockdown option it seems like some of the calls for a hard lockdown have almost a masochistic quality to them. "Humanity has sinned and now we must be punished" It's similar to some of the sentiment you see with the climate change debate.
People are too stupid to stay away from each other. I think we need 80% to lockdown for infection to slow under modeling. Not 70% as it has little effect.
 
My main concern is, having a shutdown and all the ramifications of it, then lifting the shutdown and 6 weeks later being in the same place again.
We need testing equipment to get an idea of how widespread it is and where it is.
We are probably on the end of a queue for testing equipment, they are probably being allocated on a needs based system and Europe and the U.S will be at the head of the queue.
Just my opinion.
 
I disagree and you only have to look at how Daniel Andrews has communicated to his state to see that your statement is wrong.
The same Daniel Andrews who was still thinking a Grand Prix was going to happen, complete with people flying in from a known infection hot spot, until others pulled the rug from under it?

The same one who was trying to keep a casino open until ScoMo decided otherwise?

Sure he's arguably done a better job of leading in general than the Australian government in some ways but then the same could be said of other state premiers so it's more a state versus federal thing than a Labor versus Liberal one.

Does anyone think that if Labor had won the last federal election then they'd have moved to reduce Australia's economic reliance on any single industry and on any single foreign country? If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.

All much the same. Both sides and most of the others are wedded to the status quo and don't want to upset it in any way really even though the risks are obvious to many. This virus has forced the upset that was always going to happen at some point...... :2twocents
 
Last edited:
A lot of data on this site:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Zoom in and click on the cities etc for specific data.

It's not perfect and doesn't answer everything you asked but seems reasonable and I note from news footage this seems to be the exact same page that WHO and others are displaying on the wall, it looks identical in layout and content etc, so presumably it's legit.

The historical data behind this site is available by state for AUS from a github link at the bottom of the web page. If you are 1/2 way maths inclined and can drive a spreadsheet you can download the historical .csv file and model the progress of the disease in your own state.
 
That is a crazy story.

Where the **** was ASIO on this? Massive intelligence failure.
I don't think it was illegal.
They may have had good intentions and wanted to help their country. It looks bad after the fact though.
 
Sounds like some of the Sydney ferries are closing, over the virus.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...uise-and-ferry-operators-20200326-p54e96.html
I'm living near a ferry wharf; the 5pm, from Barangaroo, usually disembarks 100+ commuters. Yesterday it was 3. Now run by TransDev, and contracted by the state govt, will milk it for as long as possible. The unions, proud upholders of their 19th century practices, will fight tooth and nail any stand-downs.

The tourist boats have stopped (Mainly Sealink - see Ann .... Capn Cook is owned by them, too)) and the party boats, those lockout law evaders, have been forced to halt.
 
If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.

I seem to recall they said something about an electric car industry, but that was a long time ago now. :rolleyes:
 
Top