Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[joeno]

Something I saw posted on another (non-stock market related) forum:

Confirmed cases in Mainland China:

Jan 18: 121
Jan 19: 198
Jan 20: 291
Jan 21: 440
Jan 22: 571
Jan 23: 830
Jan 24: 1287
Jan 25: 1975
Jan 26: 2744

Now that's a doubling time of approximately 2 days. If that continues then it'll reach 10,000 by Thursday this week and it'll exceed 100,000 during next week.

It's not my intent to be alarmist but I think we'll see the general community's level of concern about this rise substantially in the near future.

If the figures stop being officially reported then that would be the "red flag" that it's getting out of hand.

Confirmed cases =/= people infected as of that date.

There could've been 3000 people infected Jan 18, and 4000 Jan 26.

I would also like to remind people that the Flu (also a virus!!) is responsible for 650,000 deaths a year.

 

[qldfrog]

Confirmed cases =/= people infected as of that date.

There could've been 3000 people infected Jan 18, and 4000 Jan 26.

I would also like to remind people that the Flu (also a virus!!) is responsible for 650,000 deaths a year.

No:650000 in hospital
65000 death
We could get that number of deaths by the rotovirus next month if propagation stays the same
Not counting heart attacks and normal pneumonia becoming death sentences when hospital systems collapse as in Wuhan...
It is one thing not to be alarmist, it is another to play the galah especially when quoting wrong numbers
Check your references

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...DBAJ&usg=AOvVaw1fDLOH6eHIZaqI2R8g6uu3&ampcf=1

 

[Knobby22]

We shouldn't do anything about the Coronovirus.
We make up only 0.3% of the world population and it will hardly make a dent should we get become a centre for the disease in world terms.

 

[qldfrog]

We shouldn't do anything about the Coronovirus.
We make up only 0.3% of the world population and it will hardly make a dent should we get become a centre for the disease in world terms.

indeed as per co2 emission, we count fornothing so...
and we are so linked to China that we can not take any hurtful decision, never expect anything from governments in case like that.The sheer size of tourism plus education industry ties Australia in its respnses, nothing will happen until too late, and if as explained in many source, you can be infectious while still healthy, we will have to ride that one with natursl survival rate..with no ICU access
I see a lot of tigers slaughtered and a lot of vitamin supplements sales...

 

[Smurf1976]

Not counting heart attacks and normal pneumonia becoming death sentences when hospital systems collapse as in Wuhan...

There's always issues when compiling death statistics amidst a disaster.

Eg someone escaping a bushfire has a heart attack and crashes their car into a tree which kills them.

What was their cause of death? Car crash? Heart attack? Do we say it was due to the fire because if it wasn't for the fire then they wouldn't have been driving, probably wouldn't have had a heart attack, and would have more likely survived it even if they did?

Etc. It can become a technicality to say what the cause of death actually was.

All that said, and noting that the thread's about the economic implications not the medical ones, I'll simply note this. The economic implications are real right now, they're already happening. Oil price has dropped 10% or so, share markets are down a few % globally, there are planes, trains and buses going nowhere that would otherwise be in use, empty streets and shops, cancelled public events, cities locked down, people not booking international travel and so on.

Those economic costs are real, rising, and realistically there's no chance that most of what's lost will be recovered at least in the short term.

The news is likely to drive the markets far more than any underlying medical reality. If "100,000 infected" makes the news before anything about cures or 95%+ survival rates then that's going to cause some volatility. Same if an outbreak occurs somewhere else which isn't anywhere near China.

How it all unfolds I won't claim to know but the potential's there to significantly move the market I'd think.

 

[qldfrog]

106 min death.4300 cases...2pm Australia time figures..but obviously from China gov.so..
Growth rate roughly constant

 

[Smurf1976]

What exactly is the fear that this is more serious than H1N1 or SARS? Because the government is "taking it seriously"? Oh how dare they.

Essentially the same fear as if someone bangs on my front door at 3am.

Fear of the unknown but knowing that whatever the reason it's not going to be good and the only question is how bad is it?

In the case of the virus, the issue is that the extent of the problem isn't known. It's not like a plane crash into the ocean where worst case there's a wrecked plane and everyone on board is now dead. A disaster yes but it's a known quantity, the worst case outcome is known right from the start. With this virus however, well nobody knows and that's the problem - nobody knows and the potential scenarios range from trivial to massive.

 

[kahuna1]

I note of course the market is down.

I also note that Trump impeachment given the Bolton revelation which are astounding went from say a 0.1% chance to maybe a 5% chance.

As for this Flu ... despite so so many things and theories on the internet ... amusing that aliens plated it or the USA did ... this story is more to panic about.


Woman dies in Australia Day lamington-eating contest

A woman has died in Australia while taking part in a contest to eat as many lamingtons as possible.

The woman, aged 60, is reported to have had a seizure during the event at a hotel in Hervey Bay, Queensland, to mark Australia Day on Sunday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51259819

So glad someone worked out that LOBSTERS do actually survive in tanks .... the idiot who wrote the price went to Zero ... seemed to miss that, and the fact that we here eat lobsters, so too Hong Kong and even Japan.

Must run ... shorting the lamington futures after that story !!

 

[basilio]

With this virus however, well nobody knows and that's the problem - nobody knows and the potential scenarios range from trivial to massive.

Plus 1. The Spanish Flu killed 50 million people world wide in 1918-9. Smallpox alone killed 300Million people worldwide in the 20th Century. Scientists have said for years that the risk of nasty flu mutation is possible. Bird Flu has cropped up a couple of times. There is form with regard to new and old disease nasties.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/empire_seapower/smallpox_01.shtml
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-at-russian-laboratory-housing-smallpox-virus

 

[basilio]

Updating official infection figures

m ago 04:34


We reported earlier that the National Health Commission had issued new figures for deaths and infections, including 4,515 confirmed cases of the virus. State media is reporting that 976 - or just over 20% of cases – are patients in a critical condition. It also says there are 6,973 suspected cases in China. China Global TV Network published a map of infections in China (in which it includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan).


Chinese-government backed broadcaster, the China Global Television Network (CGTN) has published a map showing infections of the coronavirus by province. Photograph: CGTN

https://www.theguardian.com/science...-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

 

[qldfrog]

I note of course the market is down.

I also note that Trump impeachment given the Bolton revelation which are astounding went from say a 0.1% chance to maybe a 5% chance.

As for this Flu ... despite so so many things and theories on the internet ... amusing that aliens plated it or the USA did ... this story is more to panic about.


Woman dies in Australia Day lamington-eating contest

A woman has died in Australia while taking part in a contest to eat as many lamingtons as possible.

The woman, aged 60, is reported to have had a seizure during the event at a hotel in Hervey Bay, Queensland, to mark Australia Day on Sunday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51259819

So glad someone worked out that LOBSTERS do actually survive in tanks .... the idiot who wrote the price went to Zero ... seemed to miss that, and the fact that we here eat lobsters, so too Hong Kong and even Japan.

Must run ... shorting the lamington futures after that story !!

I will make sure i post the result so my blighted ignorance in term of $.
ANN shares, gold, 2pc buy on open below my initial std price(gained already) and put in place for rio and fmg, bboz sell raised
Worst case scenario : these go up and compensate some of my other portfolio losses while the panic gets rampant
Best case scenario. I loose on the warrants and gold, the portfolio rebounds
Why on hell should you worry that a virus epidemy started within km from a chine virus research lab, and not from the market as per the Lancet article..must be fake news...
I would not react nowhere like that if this originated from northern Mongolia or even bj, hk
You are often quite ramped up, but i would react the same if it was our American friends having the problem.are you sure you have no bias? 12billions usd cost in china a minimum as it is gov expenses.my startup has extended holidays till the 5th of February, some staff stuck in Hubei,others panicking 900km away..do not expect to sell them Wagyu beef or spider crabs this year, or uni degree and holidays
I think both Canada and Australia are the 2 western countries which will pay a high economic price for this.even if it stops by next month

 

[basilio]

History of smallpox. I think we have forgotten how dangerous diseases can be. We also believe that science will solve it all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox

 

[sptrawler]

History of smallpox. I think we have forgotten how dangerous diseases can be. We also believe that science will solve it all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox

Herd vaccination has been very successful, in eliminating some horrible diseases.

 

[Smurf1976]

12billions usd cost in china a minimum as it is gov expenses.my startup has extended holidays till the 5th of February, some staff stuck in Hubei,others panicking 900km away..do not expect to sell them Wagyu beef or spider crabs this year, or uni degree and holidays
I think both Canada and Australia are the 2 western countries which will pay a high economic price for this.even if it stops by next month

Yep - there's already some damage done economically and the question now is about how big that ends up being.

 

[qldfrog]

Herd vaccination has been very successful, in eliminating some horrible diseases.

What will surface wo doubt in the coming months or year is
What was this virus, was it manipulated..crisp...watch netflix "unnatural selection" or if you have interest in genetic manipulation
Never expect acknowledgement, and to be honest, who cares..the devil is out whatever the cause..
Going to log to trading platform and see what the result of the day is.
Stay safe

 

[fergee]

I guess the HK protesters may stay home now.......

 

[qldfrog]

I guess the HK protesters may stay home now.......

One of my comments to a chinese friend:
.BJ has sorted the HK issue....

 

[kahuna1]

Woman dies in Australia Day lamington-eating contest

Watching outside the bakery ....

Child almost choked as they ate a lamington. Is it on the news ?

Smallpox has been eradicated and the Spanish Flu .... from 100 years ago when life expectancy was half that of today, penicillin was not invented for another 25 years and assistance with lung conditions was medieval compared to today.

Back to sleep for me ....

 

[Dona Ferentes]

definitely one where local agendas come out. A poster early birds, dropped this, elsewhere

called my brother who lives in Shanghai he said " people demand shanghai mayor to step down because of : why he let people from wuhang in to the city earlier?"

 

[basilio]

Smallpox has been eradicated and the Spanish Flu .... from 100 years ago when life expectancy was half that of today, penicillin was not invented for another 25 years and assistance with lung conditions was medieval compared to today.

True. Great of course.
Nonetheless the principlel is still the same.
A new virus that kills people, is significantly contagious and has no cure will decimate our society in no time flat if it is allowed to spread. Find a cure ? Sure how long will that take ? Weeks ? Months

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If we want to get concerned we should realise that our last, strongest antibiotics are already being matched by resistant bacteria. The question of how we deal with diseases that to date are curable with penicillin when penicillin doesn't work is seriously scary. For example today we take it for granted that the highly infectious TB can be cured with antibiotics. However...

https://www.reactgroup.org/antibiotic-resistance/the-threat/
https://www.who.int/tb/areas-of-work/drug-resistant-tb/en/