Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

basilio · 28 January 2020

Came across this analysis of dealing with new infectious diseases.

Worth reading just to see how bad the Ebola crisis became a few years ago.

The disease always gets a head start: how to handle an epidemic
Thermographic images are being used in airports in Indonesia to monitor arrivals for symptoms of coronavirus. Photograph: Zikri Maulana/SOPA
Outbreaks such as coronavirus, Sars and Ebola have taught us communication is key, and that the world is only as strong as its weakest health system

by Michael Safi

Global development is supported by
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Mon 27 Jan 2020 09.20 EST Last modified on Mon 27 Jan 2020 14.25 EST

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A patient presents at an emergency department somewhere in the world. They are feverish and vomiting. Doctors suspect it is influenza, but they are wrong.

When the outbreak of a virulent new disease such as the coronavirus is identified, the starting gun is fired on a vast, multimillion-dollar international effort to try to contain it.

But nothing can start before a health professional determines that, against the odds, they are confronting something exceptional. “You need to work through that process, establish that this is an out-of-the-ordinary disease and say, let’s do lab tests on it,” says Jonathan Quick, an adjunct professor of global health and author of The End of Epidemics.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...-to-handle-an-epidemic-ebola-sars-coronavirus

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30184-7/fulltext

qldfrog · 28 January 2020

basilio said:
Came across this analysis of dealing with new infectious diseases.

Worth reading just to see how bad the Ebola crisis became a few years ago.

The disease always gets a head start: how to handle an epidemic
Thermographic images are being used in airports in Indonesia to monitor arrivals for symptoms of coronavirus. Photograph: Zikri Maulana/SOPA
Outbreaks such as coronavirus, Sars and Ebola have taught us communication is key, and that the world is only as strong as its weakest health system

by Michael Safi

Global development is supported by
About this content
Mon 27 Jan 2020 09.20 EST Last modified on Mon 27 Jan 2020 14.25 EST

Shares
181

A patient presents at an emergency department somewhere in the world. They are feverish and vomiting. Doctors suspect it is influenza, but they are wrong.

When the outbreak of a virulent new disease such as the coronavirus is identified, the starting gun is fired on a vast, multimillion-dollar international effort to try to contain it.

But nothing can start before a health professional determines that, against the odds, they are confronting something exceptional. “You need to work through that process, establish that this is an out-of-the-ordinary disease and say, let’s do lab tests on it,” says Jonathan Quick, an adjunct professor of global health and author of The End of Epidemics.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...-to-handle-an-epidemic-ebola-sars-coronavirus

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30184-7/fulltext

A bit away from the economic side but i once got very sick coming back from Thailand: 5 days no food, fever lost 5kg, etc and my gp notified a national gov body who shared the results of the tests as well as flight number and seats.
ended up non lethal
Was impressed positively by the process in place.as good as van be, which is obviously not perfect if contagious wo symptoms as is the case here it seems

joeno · 29 January 2020

It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.

If France gets it, it's the French flag all over facebook. When it's a terrible unpredictable outbreak of a virus in China, it's "good hope you all die" and how do we keep Chinese people away from us. Fear-mongering.

E.g. Taiwan (who by their own accord are a "different country and ethnicity") is banning the export of surgical masks to China. When they admitted last week they have a surplus. Absolutely disgusting...

Smurf1976 · 29 January 2020

joeno said:
It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.

Agreed although to clarify my personal view, my comments relate solely to the potential economic and medical aspects of it.

They'd be exactly the same if it happened anywhere else beyond obvious points of a practical nature which aren't based on race.

Practical points as in there's a huge population in China, potentially the manufacturing of a lot of goods for the global market could be disrupted and so on. That would be very different if the same thing had occurred somewhere with a far smaller population and that doesn't produce anything of major consequence to anyone else. I wouldn't say that considering such differences is being racist, it's really just being practical.

ducati916 · 29 January 2020

Just putting a few numbers on it:

If a flu had the same (or higher) virulence as the 1918 flu (which upper estimates killed 100M) in a population of 1.7B, with far less international travel etc:

Then in today's higher interconnected world, pitch the % a little higher, say 10% and you are looking at 800M dead. Just calculate 10% of your population.

That would effect (potentially) everything from power generation to food production. The impact would be catastrophic in the true sense of the word.

jog on
duc

qldfrog · 29 January 2020

Exactly Duc, and talking about racism, the only one i see around is by the negationists who see that as a chinese issue.when you have cases all over the world it is not a chinese problem anymore.and viruses are never stopped by boundaries.

lusk · 29 January 2020

ducati916 said:
Just putting a few numbers on it:

If a flu had the same (or higher) virulence as the 1918 flu (which upper estimates killed 100M) in a population of 1.7B, with far less international travel etc:

Then in today's higher interconnected world, pitch the % a little higher, say 10% and you are looking at 800M dead. Just calculate 10% of your population.

That would effect (potentially) everything from power generation to food production. The impact would be catastrophic in the true sense of the word.

jog on
duc

You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.

Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.

sptrawler · 29 January 2020

Looks like they are getting results, cracking the virus code.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...d-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

qldfrog · 29 January 2020

lusk said:
You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.

Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.

You can not compare 2020 and 1918 with the speed of modern transport, amounts of people or absence of quarantine either
Nor the fact in 1918 noone was playing with crisp

againsthegrain · 29 January 2020

joeno said:
It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.

If France gets it, it's the French flag all over facebook. When it's a terrible unpredictable outbreak of a virus in China, it's "good hope you all die" and how do we keep Chinese people away from us. Fear-mongering.

E.g. Taiwan (who by their own accord are a "different country and ethnicity") is banning the export of surgical masks to China. When they admitted last week they have a surplus. Absolutely disgusting...

It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires?

Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic.

And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response

basilio · 29 January 2020

sptrawler said:
Looks like they are getting results, cracking the virus code.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...d-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

Reassuring story. Seems reasonable to believe we can get a quicker diagnosis and possible vaccine in the near future.

Hopefully the virus doesn't mutate by then....

sptrawler · 29 January 2020

It looks as though Christmas Island will be used as a quarantine depot, a good idea while the virus is in the incubation period.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html

qldfrog · 29 January 2020

againsthegrain said:
It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires?

Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic.

And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response

A bit harsh but some truth, but it is not a chinese problem anymore imho
Figures this morning 132 deaths, 6000+ confirmed cases
Following the double in 2 days pattern.
Not good...market resurfacing with optimism as always.what can go wrong

fergee · 29 January 2020

qldfrog said:
Not good...market resurfacing with optimism as always.what can go wrong

Good reporting results in the US should negate most of the pessimism regarding the outbreak. IF we start seeing some bad earnings prints it will be a great "excuse" for a magnified sell off.

I dont think we will see heavy selling pressure until after or near the end of earnings season. Implied volatility(SP500) looks to have broken out of a 1 year down trend which imho indicates a rough ride coming up over the next few months, enough time to hedge at a reasonable price and to lock some profits into the remaining strength. Just my

ducati916 · 29 January 2020

lusk said:
You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.

Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.

I agree, but not for the reasons that you provide. The reasons are more to do with prevailing levels of poverty, which translate into hygiene, nutritional status, age and ability to purchase or access basic healthcare.

Today, poverty (while still in existence) is far lower than it was 100 years ago. Hence, why so many of these current outbreaks (not just flu) seem to originate in China, Africa, etc.

jog on
duc

Smurf1976 · 29 January 2020

The issue I see here is that there's so much uncertainty.

Uncertainty as to the accuracy of data. Uncertainty as to the virus itself. Uncertainty as to if/when an effective cure will be developed. Uncertainty as to what the real health impact is - if 100 million were to be infected then how many die or at least end up in hospital?

Etc. So many uncertainties which when combined give a huge range of plausible outcomes ranging from a minor nuisance through to outright catastrophe.

What can be said though is that so long as it keeps doubling every 2 days it's a problem indeed pretty much anything is a problem if it doubles every 2 days and keeps doing so. Even good things turn to bad if they keep doing that for too long.

sptrawler · 29 January 2020

Smurf1976 said:
The issue I see here is that there's so much uncertainty.

Uncertainty as to the accuracy of data. Uncertainty as to the virus itself. Uncertainty as to if/when an effective cure will be developed. Uncertainty as to what the real health impact is - if 100 million were to be infected then how many die or at least end up in hospital?

Etc. So many uncertainties which when combined give a huge range of plausible outcomes ranging from a minor nuisance through to outright catastrophe.

What can be said though is that so long as it keeps doubling every 2 days it's a problem indeed pretty much anything is a problem if it doubles every 2 days and keeps doing so. Even good things turn to bad if they keep doing that for too long.

Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO

Dona Ferentes · 29 January 2020

sptrawler said:
It looks as though Christmas Island will be used as a quarantine depot, a good idea while the virus is in the incubation period..

though you'd think the Christmas Islanders may think otherwise?

fergee · 29 January 2020

sptrawler said:
Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO

100% agree on that....cant wait to get back to the "right" hemisphere!

Smurf1976 said:
Etc. So many uncertainties which when combined give a huge range of plausible outcomes ranging from a minor nuisance through to outright catastrophe.

I think it will just end up being a case of muddling through the middle case scenario(at worst). The probability that this will be a major global catastrophe is pretty small, all though it would be a black swan event(imo) if it proved to be worst case. In saying that I think the insto's and hedgies will use this as an excuse to take some profits, jack the markets down and rebuy at a later date...the ol Wall St shuffle

qldfrog · 29 January 2020

sptrawler said:
Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO

how many direct flights from China per day: with 14 days incubation and transmissin before symptom, I am not sleeping that well, few western nations have as much exposure as us to China, and the importance of China in our economy: tourism, education, raw material exports, food exports, except the baristas, few Australians do not rely on China as a whole. My house was built on the back of Chinese exports and mining giants profits

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

basilio

qldfrog

joeno

Smurf1976

ducati916

qldfrog

lusk

sptrawler

qldfrog

againsthegrain

basilio

sptrawler

qldfrog

fergee

ducati916

Smurf1976

sptrawler

Dona Ferentes

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fergee

qldfrog

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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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