Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

People who think an outbreak like this at this time of year has little impact for traders are idiots and shouldn't be trading.

Regardless of how it pans out on the medical side, it’s already a significant incident so far as business and financial markets are concerned and will almost certainly get bigger.

How much bigger and how quickly are the unknowns.

 

[greggles]

The difference between the current outbreak and the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS is that SARS was not contagious until those infected started showing symptoms. With the current outbreak the virus is contagious within the ten day incubation period, so it is being spread by those infected even before they know they are infected.

The current CCP numbers are 2,800 cases confirmed across China with 80 deaths. I am skeptical of these numbers and believe it is worse. The spread of the virus started in December and here we are a month later with only 2,800 infections in the whole of China? I'm not buying it.

The truth will come out eventually.

 

[kahuna1]

With the current outbreak the virus is contagious within the ten day incubation period, so it is being spread by those infected even before they know they are infected.

Yawn ....

In a bad flu season ... 5 million get it .... 300,000 DIE ....

Perspective ? Not in evidence with doomsday cultists !!

 

[basilio]

How bad is this virus ? Perhaps the current situation that only" 80 people have died suggests a dangerous but not disastrous situation.

On the other hand consider this :-
Facebook
Twitter
1h ago 05:33

China’s state media is reporting of the more than 2,700 people infected with coronavirus, 461 are in a critical condition. Eighty people are known to have died in China from the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-to-80-with-more-than-2700-cases-live-updates

 

[Smurf1976]

Biggest issue here so far as markets etc are concerned will be the uncertainty.

It's not like the regular flu with a fairly consistent impact in the background and it's not like, say, a ship sinking where the worst case scenario is loss of the ship + everyone on board and perhaps an oil spill.

With this virus, well at this point in time nobody can say with any certainty what the ultimate outcome will be. What can be said though is that the response from China is several orders of magnitude greater than the officially claimed problem and that rings some serious alarm bells as to what's really going on.

 

[sptrawler]

IMO a lot will depend on how the virus is transmitted, whether by hand or airborn, with SARS it was transferred by hand so relatively easy to contain spray and wipe everything. Airborn not so easy without isolation, which seems to be what is happening.
If it is airborn, respirators will be in big demand, not the paper masks people are wearing. Companies like Ansell could see some movement.
Just my opinion.

 

[sptrawler]

The first casualty seem to be the crayfish companies, we could end up with some cheap crayfish in Coles and Woolies.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...ng-industry-on-hold/11900668?section=business

Or maybe not.
While the prices have dropped, symbolically, to nothing, it will not necessarily mean locals will be able to access cheaper crayfish in Western Australia.

The cooperative told the ABC it is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the local market, as lobsters can be stored in tanks in the right conditions for many weeks at a time.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Futures for China's CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are down 3.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively. Neither index is scheduled to trade until Friday, but Beijing has since extended the public holiday period to Sunday, and it's still unclear if this also applies to the market.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng will resume on Wednesday.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...ions-to-be-spent-containing-outbreak/11904270
12 billions: qldfrog's 10 billions is already overtaken.do not forget to short iron Rio and FMG

 

[sptrawler]

Crown resorts CWN, might be affected, if they still have an interest in the Macau casino.

 

[Smurf1976]

Crude oil has definitely been affected.

Around $58.50 a week ago, $52.42 at the moment.

That alone is a ~$600 million USD per day change (world oil consumption is very close to 100 million barrels per day).

 

[Smurf1976]

Something I saw posted on another (non-stock market related) forum:

Confirmed cases in Mainland China:

Jan 18: 121
Jan 19: 198
Jan 20: 291
Jan 21: 440
Jan 22: 571
Jan 23: 830
Jan 24: 1287
Jan 25: 1975
Jan 26: 2744

Now that's a doubling time of approximately 2 days. If that continues then it'll reach 10,000 by Thursday this week and it'll exceed 100,000 during next week.

It's not my intent to be alarmist but I think we'll see the general community's level of concern about this rise substantially in the near future.

If the figures stop being officially reported then that would be the "red flag" that it's getting out of hand.

 

[basilio]

Notting posted a video from a Chinese resident in Wuhan in China Bull thread.
Absolutely incendiary. Very articulate, intelligent guy outlining the desperate situation and how it was allowed to get out of control.

PS He is an articulate swearer as well..!

 

[basilio]

This story confirms what the Wuhan citizen (above) was saying a few days ago. Interestingly he also made the observation that he had to get permission to give full disclosure about the virus.

Having said that I think an outbreak like this would not be handled much better in many other countries.

China coronavirus: mayor of Wuhan admits mistakes
Zhou Xianwang says public information should have been released more quickly

The mayor of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, has acknowledged criticism over his handling of the crisis, admitting that information was not released quickly enough.

Zhou Xianwang wore a mask for protection as he told the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV: “We haven’t disclosed information in a timely manner and also did not use effective information to improve our work.”

He said he would resign if it helped with public opinion but pointed out the local government was obliged to seek permission before fully disclosing information about the virus, and that their response had since become “tougher than others”.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...pecial-meeting-in-beijing-as-death-toll-jumps

 

[basilio]

In the UK public health officials are already zhit scared about the impact of hundreds/thousands of people sickening with the virus with an already overstretched health system.

Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days

https://www.theguardian.com/science...rus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Notting posted a video from a Chinese resident in Wuhan in China Bull thread.
Absolutely incendiary. Very articulate, intelligent guy outlining the desperate situation and how it was allowed to get out of control.

Interesting vid. He's expressing a rage (of powerlessness) against the local and regional authorities, how they stuffed up the response. Makes the claim the Wuhan CCP leadership has decamped to Qinghai (sparsely populated province on the Tibetan Plateau). And hates the censorship, the actions by the authorities to impose control but not deal with the situation with any competency.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Pandemic reveals China's flaws
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hartcher-20200127-p53v1c.html?btis

Summarising: First cases turned up on 12 Dec (or even earlier). Official announcement was made at end of December. "Zero infections" of medical staff until a dozen reported, weeks later, all at once. No new cases beyond Wuhan reported from 12 Dec till 21 Jan; in those 39 days, confirmed cases in Thailand, Japan and USA. Wuhan was scheduled to hold annual meetings of municipal and provincial officials (Party members) from 7-17 Jan.

They tried to keep a lid on it. (the usual self-interested cover-up)

 

[joeno]

I have relatives in China. A friend of a relative (old lady) is currently living in Wuhan. She is staying mostly indoors but no, she does not know 1 person who is infected. Nor has she seen someone who is infected on the streets. Or a person who encountered someone who was infected.

Are the figures given out by the Chinese Government too low? Yes. If not anything than by the mere fact not everyone is reporting themselves in to hospitals.

What exactly is the fear that this is more serious than H1N1 or SARS? Because the government is "taking it seriously"? Oh how dare they.

 

[Tyler Durden]

It would appear that the Chinese government acted even more swiftly and very transparently in this case

Actually when it was first discovered, the government was arresting people sharing information about it because they didn't want to cause panic. Also, after knowledge of the virus, the Wuhan government allowed a giant feast to proceed, one where hundreds if not thousands gathered together to eat from shared meals.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Just wonder how long China can keep control of quarantined cities.

Chinese people are posting / boasting on social media about how they're able to leave quarantined areas despite obviously showing symptoms.