Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[fergee]

Most markets are extended as you say and "due" for correction.

Add in tensions in the Middle East

Add in that things look to be getting more serious with Trump

Now this virus

If the markets don't take a fall then that would almost be getting suspicious.....

Throw in the upcoming presidential election in the US and you have a recipe for volatility.

 

[Smurf1976]

Just heard that there's 4 people suspected to have it and being tested now in SA.

If at least one of them has it well then that's 3 Australian states. It would be a miracle if it wasn't already in the others too.

 

[fergee]

Got the first case here in Japan this week too. Im going to go buy a "sick mask" tomorrow, I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing them today when I went out.

 

[basilio]

The situation is unfolding rapidly across the globe.

The US is evacuating its citizens from Wuhan (no quarantine for them...!) One would hope there are no infected people aboard..

US chartering flight to evacuate citizens from Wuhan

The US is beginning an operation to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Wuhan, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has said.

There are around 1,000 Americans in Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, and the embassy is in the process of contacting them to arrange seats on a plane back to the US. Plans are in place for the consulate to close temporarily, the newspaper said.

There are only 230 seats on the plane, according to the WSJ report, and those on board will have to pay the costs entailed. American medical personnel will be on board to treat suspected cases of the coronavirus, and any available seats may be offered to non-US citizens.

Washington was given approval for the operation from China’s Foreign Ministry and other government agencies following negotiations in recent days, the WSJ said.

It is not yet known where the plane will land.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...ls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/epidem...oratoire-p4-chinois-23-02-2017-2106936_24.php
2017 first lab in china opens to handle most dangerous known viruses..
A french chinese collaboration,located in guess where Wuhan..do what you want with the info but you got it now
Might explain the quick and strong reaction by the Chinese government, and it probably means it is actually big.
Short Qantas if not too late buy csl i would think..

 

[Dona Ferentes]

China’s Xi admits to ‘grave, dire situation’

or is it ...

fear fear and more fear

and this week's drama?

 

[SirRumpole]

or is it ...
and this week's drama?

I think China would be more likely to try and cover this up to save face and pretend it's in control of the situation.

So, yes, I think it's big.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think China would be more likely to try and cover this up to save face and pretend it's in control of the situation.

The way it looks to me, just reading the news reports and so on, is that it’s a classic case of a problem kept quiet until it blew up and became undeniable.

Regardless of whether it turns out to be big or not, I’m expecting the market will see it as big until proven otherwise.

As an example of how far it might already have spread, I see on the news that someone in Hobart is being tested due to being a suspected case. Note there that there are no flights which run between China and Tasmania, anyone travelling between the two would go via Melbourne most likely or alternatively another state capital most likely Sydney.

It’s going to get worse before it gets better that’s for sure.

 

[So_Cynical]

I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun Coronavirus is well and truly out and near totally out of control.
The implications are potentially massive on both the plus and negative sides.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun Coronavirus is well and truly out and near totally out of control.
The implications are potentially massive on both the plus and negative sides.

Australia Post is closed on Monday for Australia Day Holiday. You may not survive until Tuesday. If you no longer live in Australia, survival is not worth it outside of the greatest country in the world.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun

I’ve got the proper masks rated for use with asbestos. Not that I actually do asbestos removal but I’ve got the gear.

Might look a bit over the top wearing that while doing the shopping though with the white suit and all that.....

 

[fergee]

I’ve got the proper masks rated for use with asbestos. Not that I actually do asbestos removal but I’ve got the gear.

Might look a bit over the top wearing that while doing the shopping though with the white suit and all that.....

Better safe than sorry?

 

[Country Lad]

I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host.

I don’t know about that. If you have a look at a chart of the growth rate of the human population the exponential increase is very similar to that of a virus. We are doing a fine job in trying to wipe out our host.

The only difference is the time scales, however if we relate the 12,000 years to the lifespan of our host it is really a blink of the eye.

 

[fergee]

https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/epidem...oratoire-p4-chinois-23-02-2017-2106936_24.php
2017 first lab in china opens to handle most dangerous known viruses..
A french chinese collaboration,located in guess where Wuhan..do what you want with the info but you got it now
Might explain the quick and strong reaction by the Chinese government, and it probably means it is actually big.
Short Qantas if not too late buy csl i would think..

Crown casino may see less punters through the doors as well.

 

[fergee]

"China is also suspending from Monday all foreign trips by Chinese holiday tour groups, state media reported." BBC



@Country Lad - Fantastic post

 

[Country Lad]

The SARS coronavirus was badly handled by China which allowed it to spread more swiftly including to other countries. It opened China to severe criticism from other nations in the way it was badly handled and communicated.

However, when the H7N9 coronavirus hit, China was far more prepared and the response was much swifter and more transparent than it was in the SARS outbreak. This was likely one reason that the impact was not as high as SARS.

It would appear that the Chinese government acted even more swiftly and very transparently in this case and only time will tell whether the quick and rather extreme action of isolating regions, telling the world, along with a greater preparedness by other countries will help restrict the spread and impact of this coronavirus.

 

[Smurf1976]

One financial implication is that it'll almost certainly add to the woes of retailers.

There's going to be at least some people who avoid crowded places, shopping centres and so on until this is resolved so that ought to mean lower sales particularly of anything not immediately essential (so everyone other than supermarkets etc).

 

[Smurf1976]

"China is also suspending from Monday all foreign trips by Chinese holiday tour groups, state media reported." BBC

Assuming this isn't a drastic over reaction by China then it would seem to be rather serious indeed if the extent of measures being taken is any indication.

 

[fergee]

Assuming this isn't a drastic over reaction by China then it would seem to be rather serious indeed if the extent of measures being taken is any indication.

As @qldfrog stated previously looks like Qantas could be ripe for shorting this coming week.

 

[Smurf1976]

One aspect of the markets is that we're in the somewhat unusual situation that there's a significant "event" taking place and that Monday is a public holiday in Australia but is not a holiday for the rest of the world.

So we'll be able to see the international markets' reaction and the effect on particular sectors (eg airlines) before there's a chance to trade on the ASX.