Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[basilio]

Be interesting to see what ScoMo does to keep the economy and people and businesses alive over the next 6-8 months.

Interesting article offer the suggestions and rationale of 6 different economists. Covers much of the ground ASF posters have suggested.

Experts on how coronavirus will wallop Australia's economy – and what the government must do
Economists say a recession is now nearly inevitable. The only question is how long it will last
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...alias-economy-and-what-the-government-must-do

 

[banco]

So you are sick, old (>75years), overweight, haven't looked after yourself (no vegies or fruit in the diet, but plenty of sugar), a smoker, don't exercise, then be VERY VERY Scared.
Exclusion, those that have underlying medical issues that they did not contribute to.
For everyone else, look forward to a headache and sore throat, but if the majority play to this scaremongering, then look forward to not having a job, a house or being able to feed your children.

What percentage of the over 60 population would you consider to be an acceptable loss?

 

[Smurf1976]

Can’t pharmacies write sick notes?

They can yes.

Trouble is that whilst it's not the majority, there are definitely some hard line employers out there on this sort of thing which in practice make it difficult for employees who are genuinely sick to take time off.

Not everyone is like that of course, but they exist and as this virus has very clearly shown it's the least protected which puts all in danger not the best protected. Only needs one shoddy market in China, only needs one sick person still commuting on the train, etc and we're all stuffed.

 

[basilio]

I've just been to our local public hospital. The wife is not so good.

Have to say every time I go I thank the universe for living in a country with a quality public health system that works well and won't bankrupt us like, say, the US.

Having said that it is also clear that our current system will be incapable of handling anything like the scores/hundreds/thousands of potential Corona Virus patients. It works very hard to full capacity at the moment. That is why the government is scrambling to create pop up fever clinics, tele health diagnosis, and a host of other imaginative ways to somehow cope.

Wayne copied in a very sobering story from an Italian doctor highlighting how their excellent health system is collapsing under the pressure. The Chinese hospitals have also had huge problems despite the heroic efforts of their doctors and health professionals. Everything that is done to slow down and spread the infection rate will save lives. Given the age bracket of most of ASF members it will ours and our friends and close relatives.

 

[banco]

If an employer refuses somebody sick leave and other employees contract covid19 from them would be curious to know if the employer is liable?

 

[hja]

If an employer refuses somebody sick leave and other employees contract covid19 from them would be curious to know if the employer is liable?

And would that open up the way for similar situations over other viruses? the flu (influenza)?

 

[satanoperca]

What percentage of the over 60 population would you consider to be an acceptable loss?

10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations

 

[IFocus]

10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations

As far as I am aware only under 9 years olds are the only age group that have not had a fatality.

All other including yours whatever it is have seen fatalities including healthy people of all age groups albeit in low numbers.

I am surrounded by older Australians and have an elderly parent and in law plus lifelong friends who are fighting immune diseases. They are all aware of the possible out come and much of that depends on the behavior of healthy people.

I guess it will come down to the values Australians hold dear.............and yours?

 

[basilio]

10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations

Number of people in Australia over 60 is about 5 million. So your suggesting 500,000 deaths from the virus is acceptable ? In 2017 around 145,000 people over 60 died. I suggest adding another 300,000 deaths would be horrific terms of the social impact.

Lets not go down that path..

https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death

 

[qldfrog]

WHO officially declared a Pandemic.
They could not wait till June.
Their bonds will now be released , investors money in smoke..no crying from me, and money used for hopefully useful purpose in poor countries
The amounts involved in the fight are staggering as Italy shows
10 billion euro so far there
With diminishing receipts.

 

[moXJO]

10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations

You might want to revisit this comment.

10% is realistically possible.
Not acceptable.

Brothers, Sisters, Fathers, Mothers, Sons and Daughters are all in the firing line. So far numbers stay down with proactive measures.

 

[IFocus]

WA state premiere on ABC radio yesterday laying out the states plans saying the advice to him and by inference Australian leaders (they are all getting the same advice) is the peak will be August.

The state police commissioner was also on for his monthly talk back (he is the states emergency control officer) laying down the actions that will be coming.

 

[sptrawler]

WA state premiere on ABC radio yesterday laying out the states plans saying the advice to him and by inference Australian leaders (they are all getting the same advice) is the peak will be August.

The state police commissioner was also on for his monthly talk back (he is the states emergency control officer) laying down the actions that will be coming.

Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
It will be interesting to see which proves right.

 

[sptrawler]

It will be interesting to see how the stimulus package goes, it is o.k to give people money, but if there is nothing on the shelves it wont help much. That goes for building supplies, as well as household produce.
Also if things are locked down, peoples spending will contract like never before, so interesting times ahead.IMO
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/federal-government-coronavirus-economic-stimulus/12042972

Hopefully this peaks and moves on very quickly, a lot will depend on how vigilant people are, in not infecting others and not getting infected themselves.

 

[Knobby22]

Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
It will be interesting to see which proves right.

I was listening to a statistician last week on the ABC, and he was saying peaking August, only really taking off in early April.
Hopefully finishing November.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

stimulus

More than 6 million welfare recipients, including pensioners, carers, veterans, families, young people and jobseekers will get a one-off cash payment of $750 from March 31.

"The biggest beneficiaries of that will be pensioners," Mr Morrison said. "They comprise around half of those who will receive those payments, but they also will be extended to those in family tax benefits, which obviously goes to those in earning households."

Nearly 700,000 small and medium businesses will receive cash payments of between $2,000 and $25,000 to help pay wages or hire extra staff. The measure is the largest part of the package, and is estimated to cost $6.7 billion.

The stimulus package also includes $1.3 billion in support payments to keep apprentices in their jobs amid fears the spread of the coronavirus could have a crippling effect on employment.

 

[SirRumpole]

stimulus

More than 6 million welfare recipients, including pensioners, carers, veterans, families, young people and jobseekers will get a one-off cash payment of $750 from March 31.

"The biggest beneficiaries of that will be pensioners," Mr Morrison said. "They comprise around half of those who will receive those payments, but they also will be extended to those in family tax benefits, which obviously goes to those in earning households."

Nearly 700,000 small and medium businesses will receive cash payments of between $2,000 and $25,000 to help pay wages or hire extra staff. The measure is the largest part of the package, and is estimated to cost $6.7 billion.

The stimulus package also includes $1.3 billion in support payments to keep apprentices in their jobs amid fears the spread of the coronavirus could have a crippling effect on employment.

Sounds like a good package, will be interesting to see how Labor reacts (but irrelevant).

 

[Smurf1976]

I see that the US has suspended all travel from the EU.

This is getting rather drastic yes.

(I'd provide the link but it's being painful for whatever reason. Source is the BBC news website).

 

[greggles]

I see that the US has suspended all travel from the EU.

This is getting rather drastic yes.

(I'd provide the link but it's being painful for whatever reason. Source is the BBC news website).

It's all over CNN.com now.

Man, airlines are gonna get killed. Short the hell out of them, they are going to suffer some heavy losses on the US market tonight.

This announcement is going to rip whatever confidence remains in the market. I think we're going to see another bloodbath tonight, possibly the biggest.

 

[MrChow]

Forrest Gump just lost the ASX $100B in an hour.