Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

Regardless of which side of politics you prefer, Daniel Andrews is the current Premier of Victoria and he's being fairly blunt here:

"The disruption will be significant, it will hurt our economy, it will inconvenience many, many people,"

"Part of that plan is the inevitability that we will get to the point that rather than one school being closed, all of our schools will be closed," he said.

"Rather than people simply distancing themselves and quarantining themselves, we may have entire sectors, entire workforces where people are working from home."

It seems pretty clear that he's referring to drastic measures and that it's a question of when not if. Whilst he's the Premier of Victoria, it's a reasonable assumption that other states would be looking at similar measures unless they somehow manage to escape having an outbreak.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ndrews-on-coronavirus-pandemic-plans/12042780

The impacts on the "real" economy in Australia have only just begun it would seem.

As for the markets, well if we're going to see lockdowns in Australia then I find it very hard to believe that all we see as a response from stock market is a drop of just under 20% from peak to bottom based on closing values and all over in 12 trading days. Not impossible I suppose but I doubt it.

Incidentally today marks the 20th anniversary of the peak of the .com bubble which ultimately saw a drop of 78% over the following 2.5 years.

 

[qldfrog]

Try google and researching what a short agreement is. Then you might get a answer to your own stupid question is.

If Mr know it all can point on what happens to a put warrant when the company is not trading, it could maybe helps other more deserving than me DW

 

[sptrawler]

Regardless of which side of politics you prefer, Daniel Andrews is the current Premier of Victoria and he's being fairly blunt here:





It seems pretty clear that he's referring to drastic measures and that it's a question of when not if. Whilst he's the Premier of Victoria, it's a reasonable assumption that other states would be looking at similar measures unless they somehow manage to escape having an outbreak.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ndrews-on-coronavirus-pandemic-plans/12042780

The impacts on the "real" economy in Australia have only just begun it would seem.

As for the markets, well if we're going to see lockdowns in Australia then I find it very hard to believe that all we see as a response from stock market is a drop of just under 20% from peak to bottom based on closing values and all over in 12 trading days. Not impossible I suppose but I doubt it.

Incidentally today marks the 20th anniversary of the peak of the .com bubble which ultimately saw a drop of 78% over the following 2.5 years.

Whatever happens, I will be giving discretionary retailers a wide berth, I'm also keeping clear of miners outside of battery materials.

 

[Smurf1976]

Another aspect to this is anyone who gets a normal flu or even simply just a cold. The only sensible and socially acceptable thing they can do is self-isolate until such time as they are tested and found to not have COVID-19.

Even if the test comes back negative, you only have a cold, well you're still going to be isolating yourself in practice with the only real difference being that you can walk down the street if you choose since your isolation isn't mandated by government.

You're not going to be going anywhere near others though unless you want to start an outright panic in the event you cough or sneeze or even simply need to speak and someone notices the croaky voice. So you're still housebound effectively.

 

[sptrawler]

Another aspect to this is anyone who gets a normal flu or even simply just a cold. The only sensible and socially acceptable thing they can do is self-isolate until such time as they are tested and found to not have COVID-19.

Even if the test comes back negative, you only have a cold, well you're still going to be isolating yourself in practice with the only real difference being that you can walk down the street if you choose since your isolation isn't mandated by government.

You're not going to be going anywhere near others though unless you want to start an outright panic in the event you cough or sneeze or even simply need to speak and someone notices the croaky voice. So you're still housebound effectively.

That is exactly why the transfer rate will drop.
Also the Government is bringing out an advert explaining why, how and what to do, which will improve peoples understanding and behaviour.

 

[Smurf1976]

That is exactly why the transfer rate will drop.
Also the Government is bringing out an advert explaining why, how and what to do, which will improve peoples understanding and behaviour.

The good side as you say is the transfer rate should drop.

The bad side is the economic one.

 

[sptrawler]

The bad side is the economic one.

I'm not so sure on that, there will be economic fallout, but we needed a correction a cct breaker for the benign way we were meandering along.
The Government got in by default, they have being doing nothing since, the media has been full of regurgitated dribble for the past 12 months.
I think this might actually bring a bit of clarity, to society and the Government.
It might actually jolt people out of the comatose state they have been in IMO, there isn't many better ways to wake people up and get them to focus on what is really important, than to expose their mortality.
As you have posted in this thread, it may have far reaching social and financial outcomes, that we haven't even thought of I think some will be for the better.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm not so sure on that, there will be economic fallout, but we needed a correction a cct breaker for the benign way we were meandering along.

Medium to long term absolutely agreed. It'll bring a refocusing.

Once the dust settles I think the political implications will also be broad. It will force change in China which would otherwise have taken far longer to occur.

Short term though it's going to be a huge hit from what I can see. Everything that gets cancelled, and there's already a mounting list from airlines leaving planes on the ground through to concerts not happening, it's all a drop in GDP and it's all going to have an impact.

 

[tech/a]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.

 

[Struzball]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

I heard in the news at some point that it can be caught again, but the symptoms less severe.

My opinion on this virus.. if there are multiple strains, deadly vs non-deadly, the one that kills the hosts is going to be out-competed by the one that doesn't kill the hosts. Before long it will become a non-deadly virus, like the common cold.

After this northern hemisphere winter, it will probably come around every year and won't make much of an impact. When deaths stop, nobody will get tested. People won't even know they had it since the symptoms are the same as a cold/flu.

 

[qldfrog]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.

There are definitely some cases of people getting it twice but not sure yet if it is the norm or just different strains of the virus.
As you pointed it is a critical question with huge implications
If your body memory of the virus is too short, it means we can never succeed with vaccine..and it could become a plague on mankind
Always there, killing the weakest..this is the worst case scenario and only treatment not immunisation would help.
there was a young 28y old chinese guy who was declared cured went home then got it again and died
Time will give us more knowledge.
italy system is collapsing but should give us more statistic and confirmations
Will post anything i find on this subject here

 

[moXJO]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.

Last I heard:
If your immune system is still low and the virus is still in your system it can come back for a second go in a short period of time.

Apparently you can also catch it again after a few months, though not as severe. It's now likely endemic so will more then likely be around every year.

 

[IFocus]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.

Short answer is yes

There are a couple of medical terms used for the "recurrence" which escape me.

One is the virus hides in the body and reappears and two you straight out catch it again.

The thinking is antibodies (is that the correct term?) last only for a short time.

Reported in one Chinese area of a 14% reinfection rate.

Fact is little is really know lots of guesses

 

[basilio]

I think one of the huge economic challenges facing everyone will be keeping the economic wheels turning when the biggest priority is protecting people lives.

I don't believe we can still continue to have a maximum profit focused economy while doing whatever is necessary to minimise deaths an associated health pressures on our society.

Italy has already postponed payments on mortgages while the country is in crisis. I believe urgent thought should be given to how countries, businesses and individuals handle loan repayments and rollovers of debts. Perhaps this is the time to declare " force majeure"?

 

[rederob]

Let's not forget that Hubei, which is COVID-19's global epicentre, has twice the population of Australia and to date has experienced just over 3000 deaths. This compares with influenza here where on average it causes 3,500 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year.
It's also noteworthy that new infections in China as a whole have declined markedy.
Other points to bear in mind are that COVID-19 is partial to colder temperatures and the northern hemisphere is coming out of winter. Seasonality has a massive impact on virus spread, hospitalisation, and deaths.
Common flu shots are only now becoming available in Oz are are not yet recommended for older people as immunity is shorter lived. Our GP recommended we wait later into April before getting our shots (we being over 60). These may not affect COVID-19 but will at least reduce the potential number of people fronting to GP's with the common flu.
Getting back to the above numbers, GP consultations, which from today can be carried out under Medicare arrangements via social media and other face-to-face platforms, will definitely increase through the fear factor alone. Beyond that it becomes something of a guessing game.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

please note the differences.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Always winners and losers abounding. From a US focused fundie (talking the book)

I note that we have no meaningful investments in sectors that have been the most impacted, including tourism, energy and banks.

In the short term there may be some companies in our portfolio that will be negatively impacted should the market downturn persist but there will also be winners – and overall, we anticipate the portfolio to perform well.

An example of a big short-term winner is Instacart, the leading grocery deliver platform in the US. Instacart has experience phenomenal growth over the past several weeks as home deliveries have soared, with the company adapting quickly to take advantage of the opportunity.

 

[sptrawler]

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.

I think you are closer to the truth, than you realise.

 

[CBerg]

Always winners and losers abounding. From a US focused fundie (talking the book)

I was chatting to my mother about the impact yesterday over coffee, I made the point that for people to self isolate it really has never been easier than right now and to stay well supplied/occupied.

Uber eats - you won't go without your favourite take away.
Coles / Woolworths - get all your basics delivered to the door(provided you don't need toilet paper).
Booze delivery - not as silly as you think
Netflix / Stan - entertainment through the internet


I've been crook with a cold since last Monday, I had enough supplies on hand for a week. Family kindly re-upped my supplies over the weekend and I'm almost back to 100%. If trucks stop running we're f*cked but I think Governments realise that too.

 

[SirRumpole]

Great opportunity to market a self test kit if that's possible. Get it from the Chemist, test yourself instead of clogging up doctors or hospital waiting rooms.