Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

Woolies Keperra in Brisbane this morning
No more cheap paracetamol or ibuprofen, no more hand disinfectant, rice mostly gone as was toilet paper.no mask left at Bunnings

 

[No Trust]

YIKES !!!

Woolies Keperra in Brisbane this morning
No more cheap paracetamol or ibuprofen, no more hand disinfectant, rice mostly gone as was toilet paper.no mask left at Bunnings

 

[MrChow]

Was hoping to hold an Asian Diahrrea party without ventilation at Keperra this weekend! Plans spoiled.

 

[basilio]

So the market dropped like a stone on opening but managed to recover for the All Ords to be "just " 50 points down.

Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?

Maybe... IMV I don't believe we have seen anyway near the amount of unwinding of business activity that one might conceivably expect if the virus spreads and we follow the path of China, Sth Korea, Italy et al. If that is the case then in the next 1-3 months there will be big pressures on businesses, building, banks, retail . I think that will pass through with new profit guidance's and many possible business closures.

Unemployment will jump and with the risk of involuntary quarantine the risk to retail spend and home payments can only increase.

I think the Government has to take steps to underwrite the economic survival (not profitability..) on business and workers to get over this hump. As a first concurrent step I think senior management should at the least take a very big salary cut . If you have been on multi millions dollar package for a few years you can well afford to leave something behind for the business and staff.

 

[Sdajii]

So the market dropped like a stone on opening but managed to recover for the All Ords to be "just " 50 points down.

Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?

Maybe... IMV I don't believe we have seen anyway near the amount of unwinding of business activity that one might conceivably expect if the virus spreads and we follow the path of China, Sth Korea, Italy et al. If that is the case then in the next 1-3 months there will be big pressures on businesses, building, banks, retail . I think that will pass through with new profit guidance's and many possible business closures.

Unemployment will jump and with the risk of involuntary quarantine the risk to retail spend and home payments can only increase.

I think the Government has to take steps to underwrite the economic survival (not profitability..) on business and workers to get over this hump. As a first concurrent step I think senior management should at the least take a very big salary cut . If you have been on multi millions dollar package for a few years you can well afford to leave something behind for the business and staff.

I think we're still a long way from the bottom, and as always with these big movements, the bottom won't be clear until weeks or months after it's hit. You're not going to identify it intraday.

It's still early days for Mr. Corona; it's going to get much worse before it gets better.

 

[Smurf1976]

On the news there's someone in Tasmania with it now so add that to the list with cases previously reported in Qld, NSW, Vic, SA, WA.

The one in Tas had apparently traveled from Iran via Malaysia and Melbourne so that's 3 flights all up and they'll no doubt have been reasonably close to at least a few people whilst at Melbourne airport given that they'll have landed from an international flight then walked to the other end of the airport to check-in for and then board a domestic flight from Melbourne to Launceston.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/coronavirus-postive-test-in-tasmania/12017662

It's spreading yes.

 

[Smurf1976]

Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?

I've no idea whether or not dead cats actually bounce, and I've no intention of testing that theory although I note that my live and healthy cat seems to like jumping off the roof and lands in the garden, but this would be the "dead cat bounce" I think.

 

[SirRumpole]

I've no idea whether or not dead cats actually bounce, and I've no intention of testing that theory although I note that my live and healthy cat seems to like jumping off the roof and lands in the garden, but this would be the "dead cat bounce" I think.

I's say that could be detrimental to cats as someone might actually try the experiment.

I'd suggest changing the saying to "dead stockbroker bounce".

 

[MrChow]

Bit of History from 2009:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly 61 million people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths. Worldwide, up to 575,400 people died from pandemic swine flu.

 

[moXJO]

Yum Cha Down!
Oh the humanity....

A popular Sydney Chinese restaurant famed for its yum cha has collapsed as the sales slump from the coronavirus outbreak begins to claim its first major victims.

Parramatta Phoenix, based in the suburb’s Westfield Shopping Centre, was placed into voluntary administration this morning. A related business, Darlinghurst Asian fusion restaurant Mister Dee’s Kitchen, has gone into liquidation.

Restaurants are already doing it tough. Can't imagine many people eating out or ordering food during an outbreak. Not at the risk of someone sneezing/touching their food.

 

[MrChow]

My high conviction prediction is that there will be a lull over the Summer months in the U.S and Europe and ultimately peak in October-December at the start of flu season.

If that timing occurs it has the possibility to become a huge curveball in the November election.

 

[Knobby22]

It's not the flu though. I don't believe it will be slowed by warm weather. Look at Iran.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's not the flu though. I don't believe it will be slowed by warm weather. Look at Iran.

It's currently 11 degrees in Tehran at 3pm with an overnight low of 2 degrees forecast tonight.

That's not particularly warm so I don't see how it discredits the idea that warm weather could slow the virus?

 

[Knobby22]

Yea it doesn't.

 

[moXJO]

Yea it doesn't.

I heard it does?

 

[moXJO]

On another note. I am now officially bored of coronavirus. Queue dead cat for bouncing.

 

[Smurf1976]

So just days ago we had the Australian Government stalling in regard to stopping flights from China and we're still allowing people in from other highly infected regions.

All good we're told, nothing to worry about.

So we ended up with the following because of yet another slow reaction from government it seems and once again the states and ordinary people are left to sort out the mess and deal with the consequences.

People suspected of having coronavirus could be immediately detained by authorities, and face arrest for the first time if they defy orders, under tough new powers to be rushed into law on Tuesday.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news...s/news-story/660df734a7564c3d636fefed49e6a574

We need to learn a lesson from all this and that lesson is that failing to take a scientific approach is a sure way to stuff things economically. Short term thinking doesn't cut it.

 

[JoelA]

Anyone think the mining company’s will be hit even more from this?

 

[sptrawler]

On another note. I am now officially bored of coronavirus. Queue dead cat for bouncing.

I think I just saw it go past my window.
Is this a profit taking day? I suppose it depends how high the cat goes.

 

[satanoperca]

This event is so over baked it is ridiculous.
Pollies saying we shouldn't shake hands, last I checked, I don't lick my hand after shaking someone elses, well I think I don't.

Markets correcting, well that is bound to happen.

Maybe the RBA is a virus, seems like 100% chance of another rate cut today, talk about distroying the economy, if consumer confidence was at an all time low, lets give it another kick in the guts by dropping IR's even lower.

Thank the universe we have the best govnut economic managers in the world.

Good news we only will have 2 more cuts left and then we are stuffed.