Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[wayneL]

And I'm *out*, sold my banks & energy plays, now nothing but cash & crypto.

Bitcoin's run like 30% in a bit over a week so looks like my timing was actually pretty good for a change.

I'm out of stocks too as of last week.

I do think that the cantillon effect will once again prop up this house of cards, but the old climbing the wall of worry crap is just not for me.

HODLing gold silver BTC and ETH... and now a bunch of worthless shekels I'm wondering what to do with.

I can feel my limbic brain doing it's best to take over, so probably whatever I do is going to be exactly the wrong god damn thing.

 

[over9k]

Good grief, we might actually have two green days in a row now:



We've even had an asian tech bounce:



HOWEVER:



So yeah. Context. Long term, I'm not bullish on anywhere in asia at all. The only thing I've been thinking about is NIO and I've been in & out of that a few times. Haven't even thought about anything else.

 

[over9k]

I'm out of stocks too as of last week.

I do think that the cantillon effect will once again prop up this house of cards, but the old climbing the wall of worry crap is just not for me.

HODLing gold silver BTC and ETH... and now a bunch of worthless shekels I'm wondering what to do with.

I can feel my limbic brain doing it's best to take over, so probably whatever I do is going to be exactly the wrong god damn thing.

Yeah I sold TQQQ (my biggest holding) at $144 so not quite at the peak but not long after it. My trigger finger is itchy too

Thought about actually mining coins or is that how you got them originally?

 

[wayneL]

Yeah I sold TQQQ (my biggest holding) at $144 so not quite at the peak but not long after it. My trigger finger is itchy too

Thought about actually mining coins or is that how you got them originally?

Never really understood mining till recently... and maybe too dumb to figure that out anyway.... Just bought in... And of course wish that I had bought a whole lot more.

 

[over9k]

Looks like russia to the rescue for europe's gas problem too (lol at that, I bet the EU's absolutely seething) so the "crisis" might have been averted quite a bit.

No idea about how bad the virus is in russia but obviously not bad enough to shut their wells off so I guess that's good.

No idea if a similiar deal is being thrashed out with china or whomever but it wouldn't surprise me if there is.


Either way, sentiment has improved dramatically, so there's probably money to be made if you're brave. I might put some small degen tech buys in tomorrow (not tonight) and see as something tells me these jitters won't be gone enough to avoid a friday selloff.

Something would have to cause a BIG shift in sentiment for markets to be willing to risk holding over the weekend now IMO. Once bitten twice shy and all that.


So I might be in for a degen buy on friday in the hopes that the shite doesn't continue through the weekend. Still mulling it over.

 

[againsthegrain]

Looks like russia to the rescue for europe's gas problem too (lol at that, I bet the EU's absolutely seething) so the "crisis" might have been averted quite a bit.

No idea about how bad the virus is in russia but obviously not bad enough to shut their wells off so I guess that's good.

No idea if a similiar deal is being thrashed out with china or whomever but it wouldn't surprise me if there is.


Either way, sentiment has improved dramatically, so there's probably money to be made if you're brave. I might put some small degen tech buys in tomorrow (not tonight) and see as something tells me these jitters won't be gone enough to avoid a friday selloff.

Something would have to cause a BIG shift in sentiment for markets to be willing to risk holding over the weekend now IMO. Once bitten twice shy and all that.


So I might be in for a degen buy on friday in the hopes that the shite doesn't continue through the weekend. Still mulling it over.

the news headings this morning were that china is giving in and offloading our coal as they are too desperate for it, whats next io? well maybe not that quick with their developers jumping in wet cement... the ceos that is

 

[over9k]

the news headings this morning were that china is giving in and offloading our coal as they are too desperate for it, whats next io? well maybe not that quick with their developers jumping in wet cement... the ceos that is

Remember in the china thread when I was pointing out how much more leverage australia has than everyone thinks and everyone were laughing at me?

 

[againsthegrain]

Remember in the china thread when I was pointing out how much more leverage australia has than everyone thinks and everyone were laughing at me?

Yep I do, and I did agree with it, also we had some arguments with that other psycho about it on the china threads too... the sleeping dragon was really a teddy bear

 

[over9k]

Yep I do, and I did agree with it, also we had some arguments with that other psycho about it on the china threads too... the sleeping dragon was really a teddy bear

Paper tiger


(As an aside, never listen to anything kevin rudd ever says about china. He's a source of widespread ridicule among people who actually know what they're talking about)

 

[over9k]

Also, september jobs numbers due tomorrow (I'd totally forgotten). If those numbers are good, markets will run and keep running. There was also talk of releasing some of the strategic petroleum reserve: https://www.reuters.com/business/en...erve-possible-tool-calm-prices-ft-2021-10-06/

So the powers that be and more importantly, the markets, obviously think that said reserve is actually deliverable/isn't going to be stopped in its tracks by the virus, which is also a very good sign, otherwise it would be a totally empty threat.

So russia to the rescue in europe, strategic reserve release in USA, and OPEC (mostly the saudi's but who cares who) opening the taps by another 400k barrels/day. All GOOD. (very good)


So here's your gamble: Will the jobs numbers tomorrow also be good? Estimates are of +500k. If they are, the bull market is back in session.

Futures are well into the green as of 2.3 hours before market open so markets clearly think they're going to be.


Hmm. Might be time for a couple of rebuys.

 

[wayneL]

Hmm. Might be time for a couple of rebuys.

I'm standing by my Carillon Effect thesis.... Ie market to go higher.... But I am staying out of the stock market...


It's the most likely thing, apart from debt (same,same, really), which is likely to blow the hell up when I'm not looking... Trying to figure out this wood fired pizza oven... Daydreaming about nubile young things and such like, haha.

I'm trying to figure out assets that aren't marked-to-market so at least I don't know how much money I've lost when everything blows up.

 

[over9k]

I'm standing by my Carillon Effect thesis.... Ie market to go higher.... But I am staying out of the stock market...


It's the most likely thing, apart from debt (same,same, really), which is likely to blow the hell up when I'm not looking... Trying to figure out this wood fired pizza oven... Daydreaming about nubile young things and such like, haha.

I'm trying to figure out assets that aren't marked-to-market so at least I don't know how much money I've lost when everything blows up.

Yes but that would be responsible and I'll have none of that around here.

 

[wayneL]

Yes but that would be responsible and I'll have none of that around here.

I'm thinking:

Physical Gold/silver... It's shiny and I can look at it every day while ignoring spot price

PPOR... At least I can raise chooks and grow veggies, and have some place to ride the useless nags around.

My Defender 90... It's a heap of crap, but I have at least been offered double what I paid for it... Sometimes hard asset prices are completely irrational (that is if we can truly call a vehicle a hard asset)

Race horses... Yeah I know, tenuous at best.. but a bit of a lottery ticket. Who knows we may score at 1,000,000/1 and end up with a Winx.

A year's supply of non perishables and the backroom chockers full of toilet paper... Possibly my best investment, LMAO

 

[over9k]

Don't forget an apocalypse house somewhere safe like tasmania or new zealand with a nuclear bunker and a year's supply of non-perishable food.

 

[againsthegrain]

you will need guns and a sex robot to be fully sufficient and safe

 

[Smurf1976]

So russia to the rescue in europe, strategic reserve release in USA, and OPEC (mostly the saudi's but who cares who) opening the taps by another 400k barrels/day. All GOOD. (very good)

Good for markets in the short term agreed.

Looking forward though, I'll reserve my judgement. Reasons being:

Gas - On one hand Russia increasing supply should lower the price. On the other hand, the EU has just very visibly confirmed its' dependency on Russia and thus Russia's pricing power. Plus there's the physical question of whether the added volume will be sufficient to meet demand or not, something that depends heavily on the weather due to its influence on consumption.

OIl - OPEC promises 400,000 barrels per day. That's only circa 0.4% of global consumption though so depending on weather, economic activity and so on it may or may not make much difference.

In saying that I'm thinking longer term, months and next year, not what the market does next week etc.

 

[over9k]

Good for markets in the short term agreed.

Looking forward though, I'll reserve my judgement. Reasons being:

Gas - On one hand Russia increasing supply should lower the price. On the other hand, the EU has just very visibly confirmed its' dependency on Russia and thus Russia's pricing power. Plus there's the physical question of whether the added volume will be sufficient to meet demand or not, something that depends heavily on the weather due to its influence on consumption.

OIl - OPEC promises 400,000 barrels per day. That's only circa 0.4% of global consumption though so depending on weather, economic activity and so on it may or may not make much difference.

In saying that I'm thinking longer term, months and next year, not what the market does next week etc.

Agreed, but, I'd like to think that things will be back to some kind of relative normality once the virus stuff is in the rear vision mirror.

As I've mentioned many times, it's a supply side issue, there hasn't been some kind of massive spike in demand, so fix the supply (get the people that produce, transport etc etc vaccinated and working again) the energy and the problem is solved.


Germany has LONG been reliant on stuff produced to its east. There was quite a large war over it I believe.

But with germany's population in terminal decline:



And russia flat broke, hopefully a lower demand from germany (and all of europe) and a russia desperate to sell anything it can will finally mean that this particular apple cart might actually have some kind of hope for once.

Nord stream 2 just got approved & everything.

 

[over9k]

Screaming open. EVERYTHING in the green an hour in. Even energy & banks still pulling, though the "least good".

Tomorrow will be telling. Sentiment's shifted a lot though so things are good at the moment. As long as the jobs report doesn't drop a nuclear bomb on the markets it's back to the moon. I've bought back in with a bit, sold TQQQ at 144 a good couple of weeks ago and then DPST yesterday at 245 & rebought TQQQ with my banks & energy gains at 131 today so a nice swing play.

We can obviously expect this jobs report to f**k me tomorrow now.


(Debt ceiling also raised but that was always going to happen)

 

[dyna]

with germany's population in terminal decline:

That will do them in, in the end. China's chart is that bad, too... Getting off topic.
10years ago, Merkel and Co. decided to rid the country of its nuclear power by next year,2022.
20 years ago about a 1/3 rd of Germany's power was nuclear generated. All of that was supposed to be replaced by wind, solar, hydro and natural gas, which is now found to be not enough.

 

[Smurf1976]

20 years ago about a 1/3 rd of Germany's power was nuclear generated. All of that was supposed to be replaced by wind, solar, hydro and natural gas, which is now found to be not enough.

I'll avoid politics and simply say that from a purely technical perspective, any energy source can work reliably if it's designed and built to do so and likewise they all fail if under built relative to demand.

People often take the issue far too "religiously" - they all work if done well and they all fail if done poorly.