Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

Australia's been a population ponzi scheme since 2004.

 

[over9k]

Also, the only real bit of news that matters for anything at the moment:

 

[over9k]

Still an absolute sh!tshow everywhere, still an energy crunch, in the U.K the army is now being deployed to drive trucks etc.

Really nothing else to report other than it's the usual SNAFU but with an energy crunch now as well, so banks & energy are running hard. This will abate but doesn't look like happening for a while yet.

 

[frugal.rock]

the result of 11% may be a harbinger of lower future economic growth from this source.

Well, to be sure, after the 35% go to Ireland, they will then come to Australia.
They just have to work out that they don't like wearing Wellington's for over half the year... and that it's hard to see the rolling green fields when it's fog and snow, and then there's the cold and the the dank... to be sure.
Taters and Guinness only have so much of a hold on people... to be sure.
Oh, but then you have the fine Irish lasses, often named Mary.?
Although it must be fun on St Pat's day, that's the craic.

 

[qldfrog]

Well, to be sure, after the 35% go to Ireland, they will then come to Australia.
They just have to work out that they don't like wearing Wellington's for over half the year... and that it's hard to see the rolling green fields when it's fog and snow, and then there's the cold and the the dank... to be sure.
Taters and Guinness only have so much of a hold on people... to be sure.
Oh, but then you have the fine Irish lasses, often named Mary.?
Although it must be fun on St Pat's day, that's the craic.

and then discover Victoria or Qld...run guys run

 

[over9k]

Still no signs of the shortage abating so energy & banks still running hard whilst tech & basically everything else gets smashed. Got a nice scalp flogging LNAS (on the ASX) earlier today for a cheeky 3% but otherwise still haven't done anything.

I'll update when I think these problems are actually going to subside/when I think it'll be time to rotate but that's not yet.

All still a supply-side problem, though OPEC's just opened the taps by 400k barrels/day so that's good but they aren't going to arrive in the next 5 minutes either.

 

[over9k]

Awwwwwww yeah

NRGU & GUSH are now doubles since the 20 Aug lows. A sum total of about two weeks.

 

[over9k]

Also:



Interesting correlation.

 

[over9k]

Solid run in tech today despite the fact that bonds ran hard, energy & banks continued to climb, this is some funny business so needs an eye kept on it. More news tomorrow.

 

[over9k]

And now the funny business is over:



No sign of abating.

 

[over9k]

Futures in the toilet too:



Still about 70% cash, 15% banks, 15% energy. No plans to change anything yet.

 

[over9k]

Lol. It just keeps getting worse:

 

[Smurf1976]

Lol. It just keeps getting worse:

To try and put it into perspective, it's equivalent in energy terms to paying $288 USD for a barrel of oil or about $1200 for a tonne of thermal coal (approximately since coal varies significantly in quality).

Financially that's a wrecking ball. Pretty much no industrial production is viable at that price and also few if any retailers can pass that cost onto households and non-industrial businesses in full due to contracts and so on.

I won't try and predict who but fair chance we'll see some financial blow ups over this. Over 12 months at this price the the EU gas market would amount to just on USD 1 trillion, so about US $ 100 million per hour more than normal is being spent. That adds up pretty quickly.....

 

[sptrawler]

Well add to that the carbon tax the EU are going to put on and it all becomes a very challenging manufacturing environment, or a massive implosion due to ideology being way ahead of technology.
When will Germany build a brand new nuclear power station?

 

[qldfrog]

Well add to that the carbon tax the EU are going to put on and it all becomes a very challenging manufacturing environment, or a massive implosion due to ideology being way ahead of technology.
When will Germany build a brand new nuclear power station?

NEVER a whole country brainwashed by the leftist, antifida level..
at the time, before the wall fell, nuclear was bad was bad american missiles etc
And bad luck: karma strikes with CC narrative in self conflict with 50year of gruenen talks ahh the irony

 

[over9k]

To try and put it into perspective, it's equivalent in energy terms to paying $288 USD for a barrel of oil or about $1200 for a tonne of thermal coal (approximately since coal varies significantly in quality).

Financially that's a wrecking ball. Pretty much no industrial production is viable at that price and also few if any retailers can pass that cost onto households and non-industrial businesses in full due to contracts and so on.

I won't try and predict who but fair chance we'll see some financial blow ups over this. Over 12 months at this price the the EU gas market would amount to just on USD 1 trillion, so about US $ 100 million per hour more than normal is being spent. That adds up pretty quickly.....

At least the U.K can fire up the printing presses quickly. I shudder to think how long this is going to take the EU to respond to.

 

[over9k]

And I'm *out*, sold my banks & energy plays, now nothing but cash & crypto.

Bitcoin's run like 30% in a bit over a week so looks like my timing was actually pretty good for a change.

 

[Smurf1976]

The contrarian in me sees too many bears calling for the market to fall for this to be a major top.

I suspect we're in the vicinity of one, a major top, in a "big picture" sense in terms of broad timing and but I'm not convinced we've seen it quite yet for that reason. Too many calling it and the whole thing seems too obvious.

I could of course be completely wrong....

 

[over9k]

Solid bounce last night, asian tech stocks have screamed today and yank futures are deep into the green but remember, this is after hitting a record low yesterday. We had this after the evergrande bailout and on a couple of other days too so I'm not seeing any evidence of any kind of trend yet.

We haven't had two decent green days in a row for quite a while now, there's just been bounces in an otherwise plummeting market.

 

[over9k]

Here's some unbelievably sophisticated technical analysis:





Really trying very hard to see a pattern here though.

Futures are well into the green FWIW.