Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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over9k said:
Yeah there was a great peter schiff interview with precisely this. He basically said that he didn't see used cars dropping in price because new cards are now going to be so much more expensive. If used is a percentage of new and new is higher, there's your inflation even in the used market.

I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?
Click to expand...
Makes sense
 
over9k said:
I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?
Click to expand...
It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.

My basic thought on inflation though is that it's seeping in all around. Cars, houses etc are obvious but then there's things like food and groceries, fuel and so on too.

Last summer diesel was 135.9 cents per litre. It's now 158.9 cents at the same service station. That's just one very obvious example. Exactly the same product, purchased at the same place, now costs 16.9% more.

The nearest supermarket hasn't increased the price of bakery items or meat but they've drastically reduced the end of day discounts. So no change for most customers but it's a big jump for anyone who's really trying to save $ and who'll go in just before closing to buy bread or a chicken or whatever.

Then there's product quality. As my cat has drawn to my attention, what was decent food with visible pieces of fish is now not something she wants to eat and, to be fair, I wouldn't want to eat it either. Whatever's in it sure doesn't look or smell like fish to me. And so I now buy a different brand that costs more. In some ways that's not inflation but it the price is unchanged but quality drops to the point of having to change brand then arguably it is. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.

My basic thought on inflation though is that it's seeping in all around. Cars, houses etc are obvious but then there's things like food and groceries, fuel and so on too.

Last summer diesel was 135.9 cents per litre. It's now 158.9 cents at the same service station. That's just one very obvious example. Exactly the same product, purchased at the same place, now costs 16.9% more.

The nearest supermarket hasn't increased the price of bakery items or meat but they've drastically reduced the end of day discounts. So no change for most customers but it's a big jump for anyone who's really trying to save $ and who'll go in just before closing to buy bread or a chicken or whatever.

Then there's product quality. As my cat has drawn to my attention, what was decent food with visible pieces of fish is now not something she wants to eat and, to be fair, I wouldn't want to eat it either. Whatever's in it sure doesn't look or smell like fish to me. And so I now buy a different brand that costs more. In some ways that's not inflation but it the price is unchanged but quality drops to the point of having to change brand then arguably it is. :2twocents
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Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms.

So the supply of things like food has remained, but when we look at things we import from overseas, it's a sh!tshow.

Simple example:

"Vietnam factory closures delaying US inventory replenishment"

https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/v...ying-us-inventory-replenishment_20210924.html

"Vietnam closures push retailers to shift tactics, suppliers ahead of the holidays"

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/retailers-shift-tactics-suppliers-Vietnam-lockdowns/606363/

"Vietnam’s Factory Shutdowns Tug at Apparel Industry’s Seams"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vietnams-factory-shutdowns-tug-at-apparel-industrys-seams-11630661403

"Covid-19 Factory Closures Prompt Some U.S. Businesses to Rethink Vietnam"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...-u-s-businesses-to-rethinkvietnam-11633014618

"Companies scramble to shift manufacturing out of Covid-crushed Vietnam in time for holidays"

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/com...ut-of-covid-crushed-vietnam-for-holidays.html


And then you get the omnipresent microchip shortage playing merry hell with everything...


Again, this is ALL supply side. All of it. And this is before even thinking about the shortage of people working at the ports or driving trucks or whatever.

So yeah, no virus and self production = no problem. Anything else = problem.
 
over9k said:
Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms.

So the supply of things like food has remained, but when we look at things we import from overseas, it's a sh!tshow.

Simple example:

"Vietnam factory closures delaying US inventory replenishment"

https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/v...ying-us-inventory-replenishment_20210924.html

"Vietnam closures push retailers to shift tactics, suppliers ahead of the holidays"

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/retailers-shift-tactics-suppliers-Vietnam-lockdowns/606363/

"Vietnam’s Factory Shutdowns Tug at Apparel Industry’s Seams"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vietnams-factory-shutdowns-tug-at-apparel-industrys-seams-11630661403

"Covid-19 Factory Closures Prompt Some U.S. Businesses to Rethink Vietnam"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...-u-s-businesses-to-rethinkvietnam-11633014618

"Companies scramble to shift manufacturing out of Covid-crushed Vietnam in time for holidays"

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/com...ut-of-covid-crushed-vietnam-for-holidays.html


And then you get the omnipresent microchip shortage playing merry hell with everything...


Again, this is ALL supply side. All of it. And this is before even thinking about the shortage of people working at the ports or driving trucks or whatever.

So yeah, no virus and self production = no problem. Anything else = problem.
Click to expand...
In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.
Building materials are also having supply side issues and huge price increases
 
moXJO said:
In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.
Building materials are also having supply side issues and huge price increases
Click to expand...
Months ago, yes. Even meatworks were having to close and so there was I think a pig-derived product shortage. But that's long since passed:

Untitled-6.jpg
 
PPI in way below expected, markets have screamed in response.

But, it's friday tomorrow, so tomorrow will be telling.
 
I've just been to my client who is in the HR department of a publicly listed mining plant and equipment company.

They had just completed a survey to see how many of their staff are vaccinated, who intends to be vaccinated and who doesn't intend to be vaccinated.

Of all the office staff 20% intend to remain unvaccinated for the foreseeable future. However of the on site staff, 50% intend to remain unvaccinated and will forfeit their job to remain so.

I didn't ask how many staff there were publicly listed company so I assume a reasonable sample size.

I put it in this thread because I assume that it must be reasonably representative of many companies, with the obvious economic consequences
 
Little update to my positions. Grabbed a tiny bit more LNAS now it's broken inflation correlation. Mostly still just watching my crypto moon.
 
The more I consider the situation of already breaking supply chains, and now the cluster f*** in the job market due to vaccine mandates, bonds possibly swooning and potentially jumping off a cliff (the China RE market being up the their @rse in alligators), the more I am getting very concerned about a cascading default sh¹tshow.

I'm especially petrified is I have a ton in cash at the moment as we are trying to rejig our whole financial position to be more risk averse. (Which can sometimes be unwittingly chockers full of bloody risk anyway).
 
wayneL said:
The more I consider the situation of already breaking supply chains, and now the cluster f*** in the job market due to vaccine mandates, bonds possibly swooning and potentially jumping off a cliff (the China RE market being up the their @rse in alligators), the more I am getting very concerned about a cascading default sh¹tshow.

I'm especially petrified is I have a ton in cash at the moment as we are trying to rejig our whole financial position to be more risk averse. (Which can sometimes be unwittingly chockers full of bloody risk anyway).
Click to expand...
If you think the proverbial is going to hit the fan then the USD is still overwhelmingly the flight to safety play ;)
 
Excellent inflation data so a massive bond selloff, tech thus ran hard and crypto etc dropped.

I even flogged some bitcoin on the weekend as those exchanges run 24/7 so looks like a bit of serendipity for a change.
 
Yeah, even President Joe Biden had the wind up over supply chain bottlenecks, threatening Christmas shopping, in his Whitehouse speech , yesterday.
 
I made a post a while back showing how anything inflation linked has been the play to run and, well:

24356256245762435.jpg

3456735673567.jpg
 
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Ok so shipping containers are a fortune to ship right now. The other problem (that I was told) is that you can't rent containers, you have to buy them due to a shortage.

A lot of products are just not worth shipping so be ready for more shortages or price increases.
 

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