Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

The news is now echoing my sentiments:



The real curveball is energy. It's had a wild run over the last few days but it's really only been the last few days. It was falling like a ship from heaven when delta hit.

 

[Smurf1976]

Being able to go & get shitfaced blackout drunk on booze or off your face on drugs at the 'cross isn't really a priority when you have a toddler & a newborn.

I'm guessing you haven't been to the Cross for a while then?

If you're looking to party then you'd be better off just about anywhere else really.

 

[divs4ever]

energy was always the curve-ball , then they tried to disrupt it with the carbon credits ( tax scam )

most technology needs energy to run including the global surveillance state , but the powers that be what the masses to pay for their enslavement

don't forget option C ( back to the Stone Age ) when the best made plans fail catastrophically

BTW all the Angels came from heaven , but some decided to not go back

 

[over9k]

I'm guessing you haven't been to the Cross for a while then?

If you're looking to party then you'd be better off just about anywhere else really.

Nah, haven't been near it for years. Is it **** now?

 

[Smurf1976]

Nah, haven't been near it for years. Is it **** now?

In short, it was pretty much dead before the pandemic. Government regulations > businesses shut > buildings either empty or put to other uses eg residential.

I'm too old for that to be my scene these days but took a look last time I was in Sydney (prior to the pandemic) just for curiosity and yeah, it's pretty quiet there now.

 

[Smurf1976]

Wasn't really sure where to post this since it cuts across all sorts of issues - natural gas industry, inflation, climate change, commodity prices, potential market top and so on. Ultimately though the situation is another example of something being physically constrained as with shipping, chips and so on so I've put it here.

Natural gas prices are at record highs as economies around the world begin to recover from the Covid crisis

The high prices have already led two large UK fertiliser plants to close.

Gas price rises prompt urgent government talks

There are concerns the high price of wholesale gas could have a far-reaching impact on the economy.

www.bbc.com

It's becoming quite an issue in Europe generally. Physically short supplies of natural gas and the price is going through the roof, now reaching the point of actual shutdowns in industries such as fertilizer and steel (and not just in the UK, it's happening more broadly across the EU), leading to potential shortages of those products in due course.

More broadly, a key point I'll note is that pretty much every significant top in the major stock market indices since WW2 was immediately preceded by an energy crisis, either physical shortages or a major run up in price, globally or at least in a major region economically. Well, we have the early stages of that taking place right now in the UK and EU and they're big enough to matter so pay close attention to what comes next....

 

[over9k]

Wasn't really sure where to post this since it cuts across all sorts of issues - natural gas industry, inflation, climate change, commodity prices, potential market top and so on. Ultimately though the situation is another example of something being physically constrained as with shipping, chips and so on so I've put it here.

Gas price rises prompt urgent government talks

There are concerns the high price of wholesale gas could have a far-reaching impact on the economy.

www.bbc.com

It's becoming quite an issue in Europe generally. Physically short supplies of natural gas and the price is going through the roof, now reaching the point of actual shutdowns in industries such as fertilizer and steel (and not just in the UK, it's happening more broadly across the EU), leading to potential shortages of those products in due course.

More broadly, a key point I'll note is that pretty much every significant top in the major stock market indices since WW2 was immediately preceded by an energy crisis, either physical shortages or a major run up in price, globally or at least in a major region economically. Well, we have the early stages of that taking place right now in the UK and EU and they're big enough to matter so pay close attention to what comes next....

Yeeeeeeep:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis that’s been years in the making leaves the continent relying on the vagaries of the weather.

Faced with surging gas and electricity prices, countries from the U.K. to Germany will need to count on mild temperatures to get through the heating season. Europe is short of gas and coal and if the wind doesn’t blow, the worst-case scenario could play out: widespread blackouts that force businesses and factories to shut.

The unprecedented energy crunch has been brewing for years, with Europe growing increasingly dependent on intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar while investments in fossil fuels declined. Environmental policy has also pushed some countries to shut their coal and nuclear fleets, reducing the number of power plants that could serve as back-up in times of shortages.



Can't produce this stuff if lockdowns stop people from producing it can you?

 

[Smurf1976]

Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis

Seems to be going bad rather quickly at the moment:

At least four of the smaller UK energy companies are expected to go bust next week amid soaring wholesale gas prices.

At the beginning of 2021 there were 70 energy suppliers in the UK. Industry sources say there may be as few as 10 left by the end of the year.

Four more small energy firms could go bust next week

Rising wholesale gas prices means some companies are unable to supply energy customers have paid for.

www.bbc.com

Noting that two other companies shut down this week.

As I've said in other threads, the potential for that sort of financial blow up is very real in Australia as well. Some companies are well hedged but others aren't.

If this continues then the impact on the UK, the EU more generally and with potential spread to other countries via the LNG market will be significant. Keep a close watch.....

 

[divs4ever]

yes an interesting time to be bullying Russia over it's policies . watch for Ukraine to exploit it's temporary advantage over EU gas supplies

i would be watching the EU AND UK they are still intertwined enough to share the fate they deserve UK had a chance of a separate fate and bungled it

 

[Smurf1976]

More on the Europe gas situation:

Column: Surging European gas prices to drive down pre-winter demand: Kemp

European gas prices are surging on tight inventories heading into winter, incentivising power producers to switch back to coal and industrial users to consider temporary plant closures.

www.reuters.com

In particular I draw attention to:

industrial users to consider temporary plant closures.

Along with the situation in China with Evergrande Group, this would seem to be another thing big enough to potentially rattle markets. A shortage of energy in Europe will flow onto lots of things and the EU + UK is big enough to matter.

 

[qldfrog]

As I have been winging and ranting since the closure of borders:
We In Australia are alreally left behind:
https://www.mexicanist.com/l/cancun-airport/
Cancun airport has caught up and is just 1% down on pre covid 2019 figures.
Australia: The new North Korea... but a victory for rhe planet,all this carbon saved.....another effort Australia and you could stop domestic travel and tourism too.
Oops already done.
Greta will be proud of us ....

 

[divs4ever]

more needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians are still wasting jet fuel

 

[qldfrog]

more needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians are still wasting jet fuel

mstars and sport men for the roman games, politician and rich top 0.1% are exempted of course.
While Rome is burning...

 

[over9k]

AUD shorts now at highest level since the crash of last year:

AUD shorts at high levels, last seen March 2020

Via Sean Callow at Westpac a heads up on what do seem to be extreme levels of AUD shorts. Remarks: AUD/USD is on its lows for the session as I post, AUD lower

www.forexlive.com

 

[frugal.rock]

more needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians are still wasting jet fuel

Private chartered jet Uber rideshare you think would do it?

 

[qldfrog]

Private chartered jet Uber rideshare you think would do it?

They will own nothing but be happy ROL

 

[qldfrog]

Back to this covid gigascam effect:
An interesting in my view article on participation in the US and the most recent Covid linked accentuation of the trend https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html
In my far right anti marxist view of the world ?, this is just the local consequence of socialism creeping up in the US
.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-economic-growth-outlook-20210921-p58tj3.html

 

[divs4ever]

They will own nothing but be happy ROL

many of them own nothing already , it is all locked up in a trust or charitable foundation ( the very low tax outcome of this is just a coincidence )

 

[sptrawler]

China to stop funding coal power generation in foreign countries, I guess that will ensure nobody challenges their position of being the cheapest manufacturing country, let everyone else go green while they smog along into the future.

Xi says China will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad

Xi provided no details in his announcement, but China has been under heavy diplomatic pressure to put an end to its coal financing overseas.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Byford Tsang, a policy analyst for E3G, said that while this represents a big step, it is not quite a death knell for coal. That’s because China last year added as much new coal power domestically as was just cancelled abroad, he said. But Lewis said official data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce showed no new coal plants financed abroad in the first half of 2021.

What will really matter is when China stops building new coal plants at home and shutters old ones, Tsang said. That will be part of a push in the G-20 meetings in Italy next month, he said.