Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[divs4ever]

thanks for the heads up , i was expecting similar to happen , but just unsure when

good luck and best wishes

PS can you make us a new PM and a set of six premiers , the currents ones look worn out and obsolete

 

[wayneL]

There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.

My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.

The money is pretty good for a lone tradesman, but not spectacular... Well above average wages, butt less than what I think my skills should demand. (We can thank for an unregulated market from my trade for that). But I love it so, there's that.

Fortunately I get paid on the spot so unless people can pay I don't turn up. And.,. Horse people will generally cough up for my services and live on baked beans if necessary.

But I am one of the lucky ones... partially by design, one of the best pieces of advice I received many years ago was that the horse industry does not suffer recessions.

But... I am noticing that people are finding it more difficult to be able to pay my fees. It surfaces in my scheduling in thatpeople may have to postpone appointments not have to have enough money to pay me.

At least I can sit at home and cause trouble on the internet ifI can't be paid rather than doing the work and wondering *If* I will get paid.

As such, I think my industry may be a useful canary in the coal mine.

 

[sptrawler]

I dont know if it a sign of the times or just the way life is, but I had a burst water pipe in the wall, it is strata situation the strata insurance dont pay for the plumber to fix it and neither does the contents insurer.
Normally I use the same insurer for both, but this strata insurer doesnt do contents.
So Im in for another argument or two,meenwhile the missus os asking why it is taking so long to fix. OMG

 

[over9k]

There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.

My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.

The money is pretty good for a lone tradesman, but not spectacular... Well above average wages, butt less than what I think my skills should demand. (We can thank for an unregulated market from my trade for that). But I love it so, there's that.

Fortunately I get paid on the spot so unless people can pay I don't turn up. And.,. Horse people will generally cough up for my services and live on baked beans if necessary.

But I am one of the lucky ones... partially by design, one of the best pieces of advice I received many years ago was that the horse industry does not suffer recessions.

But... I am noticing that people are finding it more difficult to be able to pay my fees. It surfaces in my scheduling in thatpeople may have to postpone appointments not have to have enough money to pay me.

At least I can sit at home and cause trouble on the internet ifI can't be paid rather than doing the work and wondering *If* I will get paid.

As such, I think my industry may be a useful canary in the coal mine.

Can you explain what you mean by the horse industry not suffering recessions? I've never thought of horses alone as being an industry.

 

[wayneL]

Can you explain what you mean by the horse industry not suffering recessions? I've never thought of horses alone as being an industry.

Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.

And that's just racing.

There is also the leisure horse industry... Not as big as the racing industry but still significant.

While I believe that the horse *breeding industry suffers the vagaries the general economic condition, horse lovers will put their animals first, well before their own well-being.

Hence, things would have to well and truly turn to ****, before horse owners would forgo their spending.

I can only confirm that this is true, having been through several economic cycles now.

 

[bsnews]

The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.

Yes I am in the same boat with cash flow it is looking like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I have not dismissed any of my staff as yet (retail essential service) but from what I read they would be better off financially if I cut them, work that out.
2 Large debts incoming maybe I do get to sell them NAB shares after all.
Assistance money is there again just in a different form. I would also say in a more thought out way that should not be able to taken advantage of as easy as last time. I would need to ask Gerry if that is true though

 

[divs4ever]

Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.

And that's just racing.

There is also the leisure horse industry... Not as big as the racing industry but still significant.

While I believe that the horse *breeding industry suffers the vagaries the general economic condition, horse lovers will put their animals first, well before their own well-being.

Hence, things would have to well and truly turn to ****, before horse owners would forgo their spending.

I can only confirm that this is true, having been through several economic cycles now.

poor people do not own an interest in a horse for long ( even in better times )

 

[qldfrog]

The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.

Hope you and business will manage to stay afloat

 

[over9k]

Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.

And that's just racing.

There is also the leisure horse industry... Not as big as the racing industry but still significant.

While I believe that the horse *breeding industry suffers the vagaries the general economic condition, horse lovers will put their animals first, well before their own well-being.

Hence, things would have to well and truly turn to ****, before horse owners would forgo their spending.

I can only confirm that this is true, having been through several economic cycles now.

Racing I understand completely. But aside from that, there can't be that many pet horses out there surely?

 

[divs4ever]

if you consider horses used in sport ( dressage , polo , show-jumping and camp-drafting ) as pets you might be surprised

 

[over9k]

Ok, so let's add those to the racing mix. Again, there can't be that many? Dogs for example would have to outnumber them what, 500:1?

It's not like they're bred for meat and/or milk (or both) like cows are. I could see how any animal we use for food would be a big industry (I know the poultry industry is huge for example) but horses seems hard to see?

 

[Value Collector]

Horses are actually quite a large industry.

Yep, I believe about 9000 horses are sent to slaughter houses a year in Australia, and that’s not including the ones killed after being Injured at the track or rodeo ring.

 

[wayneL]

Pet horses... LOL

Well there are plenty of those, galloping housewives who just like to go out on trail rides or have paddock ornaments.

But as Divs points out, there are all sorts of sport and working horse fraternities.... Dressage, showjumping, showing, eventing, reining, Western pleasure, cutting, stock horses, carriage, polo, polocrosse, pony club, games, rodeo, barrel racing and so on and so forth.

And then you have to breeding and young stock for all of the above.... That's not even including the racing industry.

There are waxes and wanes within individual stables depending on there financial circumstances but, in toto, the horse population is fairly inelastic and all require farriers, veterinarians tooth fairies, chiro/physics, coaches, saddlers and whatnot.

In the last big recession, the recession we had to have, the sport horse industry did not miss a beat.

During the initial covid lockdown, apart from the first couple of weeks, business actually picked up, cuz everybody was at home, on their properties, with their horses.

 

[frugal.rock]

The thread has turned shoddy?.?
Beats political crud.

Apart from you Wayne, does anyone remember that old world stable smell of horse, leather, manure and ecalyptus all mixed in?
I think I even miss horse flies... slap

 

[over9k]

AU is at about 18% last I checked.

 

[Value Collector]

View attachment 128788

AU is at about 18% last I checked.

AU is at 35% if you include those who have had one dose, that gives a better picture of where we are at because those single doses will be converted to fully vaccinated over the coming week.

 

[over9k]

Not unexpected at all. The vaccine makers are running hard for a reason.

At least it doesn't have to be a new vaccine.

 

[over9k]

Here's your vaccine makers for the day:



and check it out over the last month:



A quick double in four weeks. Very handy hedge

 

[Beaches]

There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.

My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.

The money is pretty good for a lone tradesman, but not spectacular... Well above average wages, butt less than what I think my skills should demand. (We can thank for an unregulated market from my trade for that). But I love it so, there's that.

Fortunately I get paid on the spot so unless people can pay I don't turn up. And.,. Horse people will generally cough up for my services and live on baked beans if necessary.

But I am one of the lucky ones... partially by design, one of the best pieces of advice I received many years ago was that the horse industry does not suffer recessions.

But... I am noticing that people are finding it more difficult to be able to pay my fees. It surfaces in my scheduling in thatpeople may have to postpone appointments not have to have enough money to pay me.

At least I can sit at home and cause trouble on the internet ifI can't be paid rather than doing the work and wondering *If* I will get paid.

As such, I think my industry may be a useful canary in the coal mine.

A digital race horse just changed hands for $125,000 as crypto-mania and the boom in NFTs show no signs of slowing down

Crypto horse racing platform Zed Run is the newest trend based on NFT blockchain technology. Digital horses can be bred, raced and traded in the game.

markets.businessinsider.com

@wayneL you just have to work out how to be a virtual farrier

 

[wabullfrog]

Had an interesting chat with an engineer who works for a miner with mines in more than a few countries.

They are looking at the way they work & one of the scenarios under consideration is more WFH on a permament basis but instead of just working on the mine you currently physically work at, you will now also do work relating to other mines within the companies operations.