Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[rederob]

It is not a pro or against jab, it is pro or against forcing people not at risk of covid:

Everyone is at risk, but vaccinated people are less likely to be infected, suffer symptoms or die.

roughly below 60ish to be injected with a new tech relying on a genetic modification,

A battery is not the same as an engine, just as mRNA is not DNA - they each exist separately within larger bodies and have different roles. No modification of genes is possible.

If we had a dead or attenuated virus offer, i would have no scientific reasons to be against mandatory vaccine, this would be a vaccine not a trial with a product which could create millions of self immune responses or whatever unexpected results in 5 or 10y time if our body respond to a different virus or is weakened.

All the vaccines work on the same principle, and that's to elicit an immune response. The mRNA package is short lived in our body - breaks down within 3 days - so most adverse reactions will occur soon afterwards and not years later.
I agree that the tried and well proven technology for vaccines (inactivated or live attenuated) is less likely to have the side effects associated with mRNA vaccines, but haven't read any papers comparing these differences. On balance there seems to be a trade off between the vaccine types as mRNA vaccines are more efficacious but possibly less safe.

That's a bloody scientifically cautious reaon, for anyone who is not at risk of Covid,

Except that everyone is at risk. Moreover, different variants of covid appear to affect different population subgroups, with Delta known to be affecting a greater share of young people.

The position of the ? which is actually shared by many real experts..not GPs but virus and epidemiology experts.i let you check that further if you have children or young relatives

Yes, @pozindustrial has posted on a number of so called experts and some of their claims are proven to have no merit.

 

[over9k]

Can we please, please, PLEASE keep the political bickering to a minimum? We have a thread for it, but it isn't this one.

 

[qldfrog]

The only reason you form these opinions and are allowed to make your own choice are due to the pure luck of the country you are living in.
If you were in Brasil or India any other 3rd world country I would love to see how much believe and resolve people would have then.

India what a disaster indeed...
430000 deaths for a population of 1,394,864,708 so 0.003%
In australia would be equivalent to 8000 deaths...in 1.5years
We are all shaking in our boots are we not?
Or 1/3 of tobacco caused yearly deaths in Australia..in 1.5y
I have seen a smoker yesterday, let's lockdown...
We have around 3300 suicides a year in Oz..before covid so that covid death amount matching India would be less than twice pre covid suicide deaths...
Every death is a drama but guess what, scoop, we die..all of us even you
Sorry if facts do not fit your nightmares

 

[rederob]

India what a disaster indeed...
430000 deaths for a population of 1,394,864,708 so 0.003%
In australia would be equivalent to 8000 deaths...in 1.5years
We are all shaking in our boots are we not?
Or 1/3 of tobacco caused yearly deaths in Australia..in 1.5y
I have seen a smoker yesterday, let's lockdown...
We have around 3300 suicides a year in Oz..before covid so that covid death amount matching India would be less than twice pre covid suicide deaths...
Every death is a drama but guess what, scoop, we die..all of us even you
Sorry if facts do not fit your nightmares

Not good at facts and just as bad at maths:

 

[againsthegrain]

So what is happening with rates? read today from a non credible source (news.com.au) that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns... sounds stinky to me, since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus

 

[divs4ever]

So what is happening with rates? read today from a non credible source (news.com.au) that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns... sounds stinky to me, since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus

i haven't seen anything recently on negative rates BUT there does seem to be some sort of flow into US Treasuries ( best of luck if you bought TIPS ) at the same times as vague hints of a Fed taper , so herding the cattle into the slaughter-house , perhaps ??

negative rates would be unattractive to me , but i don't remember the last time i changed government policy ( because i probably haven't )

 

[Smurf1976]

Unfortunately we failed to prepare soon enough, hopefully we can make up the time we wasted.

From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.

Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.

Places such as the UK aren't in that category, they were not safe places to be for much of the past 18 months, but they're very much getting it sorted now. Can't do anything to reverse the 130,000 deaths in the UK but things are now up and running on the back of mass vaccinations. Back to normal.

Then there's places like Sydney which I doubt would top anyone's list of places they'd like to be right now. 18 months into it and still not safe, still not opening up.

I can see some long term economic implications from that indeed I've already heard several reports to that effect. If you're able to choose where you live well the whole thing has given Australia's two largest cities quite a drubbing really.

So I'm seeing that as negative for Australia versus other English speaking Western countries and I'm seeing it as a negative for the big two cities within the Australian domestic context. That's how it looks to me at least and in that context I note the AUD has been trending down against the GBP since the start of the year.

 

[noirua]

i haven't seen anything recently on negative rates BUT there does seem to be some sort of flow into US Treasuries ( best of luck if you bought TIPS ) at the same times as vague hints of a Fed taper , so herding the cattle into the slaughter-house , perhaps ??

negative rates would be unattractive to me , but i don't remember the last time i changed government policy ( because i probably haven't )

Australia Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in Australia was last recorded at 4.35 percent. This page provides - Australia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

The low-interest rate is keeping the A$ cheap and it isn't that far from A$2 to the GB£1 and importantly nice and low against the US$. Unfortunately, countries are falling into the same trap they have in the past. These low rates will force up inflation so for a time everything will go out of kilter. In the 1970s the UK saw 25% inflation with average interest rates at 7.5%. My forecast during the next 4 years is for 12% inflation with interest rates at 6% in Australia and following that 10% inflation and 15% interest rates as matters go out of control. Stockmarkets will swing wildly eventually collapsing the world's economies.

 

[Smurf1976]

So what is happening with rates? read today from a non credible source (news.com.au) that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns... sounds stinky to me, since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus

Perhaps just an Australian thing?

If so then that would go some way to explaining the recent price trend in the AUD down from 79 to 74 US cents over the past 3 months. Not drastic in itself but it's the direction I'm paying attention to and the fact that it's falling despite the high commodity prices etc.

 

[divs4ever]

well when studying the GFC ( in hindsight , because i was busy with other stuff at that time ) i noticed all assets were turned to cash ( so it seemed ) particularly into US dollars , so i guess they were folks desperately trying to deleverage leveraged positions ( the margin calls , mortgages . credit cards etc. )


of course some savvy ones would be freeing up cash to buy distressed assets , but they would have been a minority

since hold several resource producers ( and most sell in $US ) a weak $A is a nice bonus ( if it flows on to the divs. , but there is no guarantee of that )

now i don't know much about Australian fund managers ( the superannuation types ) but in the US a 60/40 portfolio is still rather popular ,

currently i have a less than 1% in corporate bonds/hybrids , i reckon that investment sector , would demoralize a skunk ( since 2018 )

so negative yields to me would have me emptying the bank accounts at the first opportunity even if i had to buy estate jewellery at Cashie's with it , or sugar at Coles

but look at the various Fed mouthpieces and they keep throwing indefinite hints at a taper , while the ECB seems to explore any type of new lunacy ( including selective application of negative bond rates , in a 'modestly inflationary' climate )

negative rates here ( in Australia ) well some idiot does his best to provoke our biggest trading partner , everything is possible when a politician gets desperate

 

[Value Collector]

From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.

Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.

Places such as the UK aren't in that category, they were not safe places to be for much of the past 18 months, but they're very much getting it sorted now. Can't do anything to reverse the 130,000 deaths in the UK but things are now up and running on the back of mass vaccinations. Back to normal.

Then there's places like Sydney which I doubt would top anyone's list of places they'd like to be right now. 18 months into it and still not safe, still not opening up.

I can see some long term economic implications from that indeed I've already heard several reports to that effect. If you're able to choose where you live well the whole thing has given Australia's two largest cities quite a drubbing really.

So I'm seeing that as negative for Australia versus other English speaking Western countries and I'm seeing it as a negative for the big two cities within the Australian domestic context. That's how it looks to me at least and in that context I note the AUD has been trending down against the GBP since the start of the year.

I agree, I don’t think it is a long term problem though.

I found something the NSW premier said today very interesting, she mentioned that once the vaccination rate hits 70%, what becomes then the rate of hospitalisations becomes the important number to track rather than the number of cases.

This is because once the majority are vaccinated, total number of cases is not important because because people will be infected but not having the disease escalate, allowing the virus to work its way around is ok, provided the rate of hospitalisations is manageable.

I think all cities will eventually have to hit that point, where they accept the viruses presence, just like they do in USA and UK, and when that happens NSW will probably have the upper hand because they will probably end up in front because of the higher vaccination rate from both the vaccine and the natural spread of the virus.

 

[over9k]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...per-plan-even-as-economy-expected-to-contract

"A surprisingly bullish Reserve Bank of Australia said it will stick with its planned tapering of bond purchases, wagering that the economy will recover rapidly from a contraction this quarter driven by Sydney’s protracted virus lockdown.

The currency rose after Governor Philip Lowe wrong-footed economists by staying on track to reduce the pace of weekly buying to A$4 billion ($3 billion) in September from A$5 billion now. The RBA also maintained the cash rate at 0.1% as had been widely expected".


They haven't even reversed their tapering decision so negative rates seem a bit off.



On the question of the 60/40 portfolio:





As for australia medium-longer term (I'm talking 5-10 years out) you need only look at this:



That big bulge of gen Y'ers right on the 30 mark is the single largest bit of chinese demand it is possible to see for at least another 30 years, and look at it, it's one minute to midnight before the demographic cliff. Even worse for china, it happens right when all their baby boomers knocking on the door of 60 all hit mass retirement and start becoming a drain on china's internal finances rather than paying into them. Both of these facts alone would be a disaster, but both at once becomes a catastrophe.

When that goes, Chinese demand will go with it, and thus so will Australia's only industry left: mining.


And it will happen at the exact moment that Australia's debt chicken comes home to roost.



This country is NEVER going back to its pre-virus state. Or at least, not within our lifetimes anyway.

 

[divs4ever]

a regime change in Brazil might impact Australia's fortunes as well

so far BRICS seems to be in disarray , but that might change

and if BRICS were to embrace a gold ( or silver ) standard , kaboom goes the Petro-dollar ( and that assumes Iran doesn't join BRICS )

 

[qldfrog]

From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.

Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.

Places such as the UK aren't in that category, they were not safe places to be for much of the past 18 months, but they're very much getting it sorted now. Can't do anything to reverse the 130,000 deaths in the UK but things are now up and running on the back of mass vaccinations. Back to normal.

Then there's places like Sydney which I doubt would top anyone's list of places they'd like to be right now. 18 months into it and still not safe, still not opening up.

I can see some long term economic implications from that indeed I've already heard several reports to that effect. If you're able to choose where you live well the whole thing has given Australia's two largest cities quite a drubbing really.

So I'm seeing that as negative for Australia versus other English speaking Western countries and I'm seeing it as a negative for the big two cities within the Australian domestic context. That's how it looks to me at least and in that context I note the AUD has been trending down against the GBP since the start of the year.

As you point, negative for Sydney Melbourne domestically but overall, negative for Australia.we are a kind of joke" they lock down with 1 or 0 death..." That's the comments from Europe i get
So brand Australia is taking a bashing, add to this the amount of people unable to fly.Frog included ..enable to see family or fiance for the last year and a half, missing funerals births weddings and believe me there is no love lost to Australia.
Million(s) of Brits, Indians in this situation here today
It will take time to heal.i wanted to move out and keep a base here..not so sure now that i want to keep a base here.would be safer to just come as a tourist to see my family and friends in Oz in the Future

 

[Value Collector]

a regime change in Brazil might impact Australia's fortunes as well

so far BRICS seems to be in disarray , but that might change

and if BRICS were to embrace a gold ( or silver ) standard , kaboom goes the Petro-dollar ( and that assumes Iran doesn't join BRICS )

Any country that had a gold or silver standard would be at a big disadvantage, there are very good reasons modern economies moved away from the Gold standard.

 

[sptrawler]

Any country that had a gold or silver standard would be at a big disadvantage, there are very good reasons modern economies moved away from the Gold standard.

I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.

 

[Value Collector]

I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.

I agree that currencies will go digital, but they will still need to be managed by central banks, and have the ability to expand and contract in size as needed.

If they can’t then they would be open to abuse by speculators as the gold standard would be, and the ability for monetary policy to be used to stimulate or out the breaks on would be diminished.

A lot of people seem to like the idea of a currency that would appreciate in value, or that can be an investment in itself because of limited supply, this idea is Super bad for an economy.

Real currencies need to be relatively stable in value, which means they shouldn’t rise of fall a lot like gold and bit coin, and their supply demand need to be managed.

Also, there should be disincentives for holding currencies, this is what inflation is, you shouldn’t expect to make money holding currency, real value is only generated if you lend the cash or spend it on investments, hence stimulating economic activity, and taking economic risk.

 

[qldfrog]

I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.

But that's a western view, if Xi or Putin can add a veneer of Gold backed layer on top of their own crypto currency, i know where i would like to put my cash, more than a btc ot eth than can be switched off by a decree.

 

[sptrawler]

The problem at the moment is, Countries are just printing money, which has no direct link to an underpinning increase in productivity or gdp, it doesnt foster a lot of confidence in the system that values a Countries currency IMO.

 

[pozindustrial]

The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.